吳海燕,黃德春

(1.河海大學(xué)商學(xué)院,江蘇 南京 211100; 2.江蘇省“世界水谷”與水生態(tài)文明協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心,江蘇 南京 211100)

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基于委托代理模型的水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給問(wèn)題

吳海燕1,2,黃德春1,2

(1.河海大學(xué)商學(xué)院,江蘇 南京 211100; 2.江蘇省“世界水谷”與水生態(tài)文明協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心,江蘇 南京 211100)

為保證水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量,在分析政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)博弈機(jī)理的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建基于非對(duì)稱(chēng)信息委托代理模型水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給激勵(lì)機(jī)制,并求解得出最優(yōu)供給量、政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)最大效用,提出提高私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)努力水平、降低私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)成本和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度等建議,為水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的供給提供理論依據(jù)。

水利工程;PPP項(xiàng)目;供給側(cè)改革;委托代理模型

隨著《關(guān)于鼓勵(lì)和引導(dǎo)社會(huì)資本參與重大水利工程建設(shè)運(yùn)營(yíng)的實(shí)施意見(jiàn)》等一系列國(guó)家政策的出臺(tái),PPP融資模式越來(lái)越廣泛地被運(yùn)用至水利工程項(xiàng)目中。在第十五屆中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇“如何讓PPP落地生根”的高端對(duì)話上,財(cái)政部政府和社會(huì)資本合作(PPP)中心副主任焦小平認(rèn)為，“PPP是一種以供給側(cè)改革為主、需求拉動(dòng)為輔的體制機(jī)制創(chuàng)新”。2015年5月,國(guó)家發(fā)展和改革委員會(huì)確立了12個(gè)第一批水利工程PPP試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目,投資近914.784億元。2016年1月,水利部部長(zhǎng)陳雷指出，“十三五”期間需圍繞推進(jìn)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革,鼓勵(lì)和引導(dǎo)社會(huì)資本,集中力量建設(shè)一批重大水利工程項(xiàng)目[1]。

包括水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目在內(nèi)的公共產(chǎn)品的供給問(wèn)題,國(guó)內(nèi)外已有許多學(xué)者對(duì)此展開(kāi)研究。Charles[2]最早以“腳投票”理論剖析了提高公共產(chǎn)品供給效率的途徑,并提出提高公共產(chǎn)品供給效率應(yīng)通過(guò)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的手段來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。李艷芳等[3]指出農(nóng)村公共文化產(chǎn)品及服務(wù)供給模式的缺陷是導(dǎo)致農(nóng)村公共文化產(chǎn)品及服務(wù)供給失衡的主要原因,提出引入PPP模式不僅可以改善此現(xiàn)狀,而且有助于促進(jìn)文化產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展和推動(dòng)新農(nóng)村建設(shè)。葉曉甦等[4]基于重慶水務(wù)集團(tuán)公私合作案例對(duì)我國(guó)城市水務(wù)供給行業(yè)公私合作體制進(jìn)行探索,提出了明確政府定位、建設(shè)公私合作信息公開(kāi)機(jī)制及合作競(jìng)爭(zhēng)機(jī)制、構(gòu)建合作結(jié)構(gòu)等四方面的體制改革途徑。許三虎[5]認(rèn)為我國(guó)水利設(shè)施在面臨市場(chǎng)失靈和政府失靈的雙重困境下,應(yīng)通過(guò)PPP模式建設(shè)水利設(shè)施,并且需要完善與PPP模式相關(guān)的法律法規(guī),建立合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)機(jī)制,設(shè)置合理的價(jià)格體系,創(chuàng)新多元的監(jiān)督管理制度。

當(dāng)前委托代理模型的應(yīng)用也日趨廣泛。秦華等[6]從縱向公平偏好的視角研究了企業(yè)內(nèi)部的委托代理關(guān)系和薪酬激勵(lì)機(jī)制,并通過(guò)對(duì)委托代理模型的求解得出相應(yīng)結(jié)論。薛耀瑄[7]利用非營(yíng)利組織理論和博弈模型分析在多委托人情況下制度約束對(duì)民間環(huán)境保護(hù)組織績(jī)效的影響。鄭志強(qiáng)等[8]基于非對(duì)稱(chēng)信息委托代理模型對(duì)我國(guó)城市大型體育公共設(shè)施供給問(wèn)題進(jìn)行研究。

綜合已有的研究可以看出,目前對(duì)水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給問(wèn)題的研究較為缺乏,且大多研究采用定性分析。因此本文以水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給為研究對(duì)象,從政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)兩個(gè)博弈主體入手,運(yùn)用非對(duì)稱(chēng)信息委托代理模型對(duì)水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)和運(yùn)營(yíng)進(jìn)行定量分析,梳理出其供給的內(nèi)在機(jī)理,為我國(guó)水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的成功實(shí)施提供理論指導(dǎo)。

1 水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給困境與政府社會(huì)投資者間的博弈

水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目主要涉及政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)兩大利益主體,利用委托代理模型分析水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的供給,可將政府部門(mén)視為委托方,私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)視為代理方,雙方存在委托代理關(guān)系,兩者目標(biāo)并不一致。

在政府部門(mén)選擇私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)投資者,招投標(biāo)階段容易產(chǎn)生逆向選擇問(wèn)題。這主要是由于水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目具有施工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)高、技術(shù)性強(qiáng)、投資回收期長(zhǎng)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生頻率高以及監(jiān)督管理難等特點(diǎn)。以三峽工程為例,該工程具有防洪、發(fā)電、航運(yùn)等巨大綜合效益,主要由攔河大壩及泄水建筑物、水電站廠房、通航建筑物等組成,是一個(gè)大型的復(fù)雜水利工程,因此政府部門(mén)在選擇社會(huì)投資者時(shí),需要綜合考察對(duì)方的技術(shù)水平、資本狀況、財(cái)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)、社會(huì)信譽(yù)等。但政府部門(mén)與私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)之間的信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)使得政府部門(mén)并不能全面準(zhǔn)確地掌握私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的真實(shí)情況,而私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的目的是中標(biāo),因而容易出現(xiàn)惡意競(jìng)爭(zhēng)行為,造成前期招投標(biāo)階段產(chǎn)生優(yōu)汰劣勝的結(jié)果。

在水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目建設(shè)期和運(yùn)營(yíng)期容易產(chǎn)生道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題,這主要是由于政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)雙方目標(biāo)不一致。由于水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目具有外部性、公益性、基礎(chǔ)性等特點(diǎn),對(duì)居民生活具有重要意義,因此政府部門(mén)作為廣大公眾的代表,其最終目標(biāo)是提高水利工程的供給效率,使得社會(huì)效益最大化;而私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)盈利是其唯一目的,獲取最大經(jīng)濟(jì)利益是其最終目標(biāo)。因此,私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)會(huì)采取一系列機(jī)會(huì)主義行為,如偷工減料、提高產(chǎn)品價(jià)格、減少項(xiàng)目日常維護(hù)費(fèi)用、趕工期等不良手段降低建設(shè)成本、增加利潤(rùn)[9]。

在水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目中,政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)之間的合作容易受多重因素影響[10],因而不利于最大化社會(huì)效益的實(shí)現(xiàn)。依據(jù)委托代理理論,只有通過(guò)建立一種高效的激勵(lì)約束機(jī)制——委托代理均衡合同,才能實(shí)現(xiàn)政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)兩者利益的均衡,從而增加水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的供給。

2 水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給激勵(lì)機(jī)制

根據(jù)委托代理理論,對(duì)基于非對(duì)稱(chēng)信息委托代理模型的設(shè)計(jì)做如下假設(shè)[11]。

假設(shè)1:a表示水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目中私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)一方所采取的某一行動(dòng),假設(shè)其為一維連續(xù)變量;b為自然狀態(tài)的隨機(jī)變量,且b～N(0,σ2) (σ2為隨機(jī)變量方差),代表外生不確定因素。a和b共同決定私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的供給量Q(a,b),即

(1)

式中:k1為努力水平系數(shù);k2為自然水平系數(shù)且E(Q)=k1a,Var(Q)=k22σ2,即私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的行為和努力水平系數(shù)決定水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量的均值,自然水平系數(shù)和自然狀態(tài)的隨機(jī)變量決定其方差。

假設(shè)2:假設(shè)政府部門(mén)對(duì)私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)采用固定收益與變動(dòng)收益組合的激勵(lì)合同,則

(2)

式中:A為私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的固定收益;k3為激勵(lì)水平系數(shù)。政府是尋找能使自身效益最大化的目標(biāo)P(Q)。假定私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)努力的成本C(a)等價(jià)于貨幣成本,為簡(jiǎn)化運(yùn)算,設(shè)C(a)=k4a2/2,k4為成本系數(shù),k4越大,努力a帶來(lái)的負(fù)效用越大。政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的期望效用函數(shù)分別表示為Y1[Q-P(Q)]和Y2[P(Q)-C(a)]。

假設(shè)3:政府是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中性的,其效用函數(shù)為Y1(w1),其中w1=Q-P(Q),為政府部門(mén)實(shí)際收入。假設(shè)私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的效用函數(shù)具有不變絕對(duì)規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特征,即Y2=-eρw2,ρ表示絕對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡系數(shù),w2為私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)實(shí)際貨幣收入。

根據(jù)委托代理模型,政府風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中性時(shí)其期望效用等于期望收入,所以:

E[Y1(w1)]=E[Y1(Q-P(Q))]=-A+(1-k3)k1

(3)

此時(shí),私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的實(shí)際收入為

(4)

則私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成本為

(5)

私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的期望效用等于其確定性等價(jià)收入,為

(6)

假設(shè)w為私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的最低收入水平要求,在滿足最優(yōu)條件下,私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的參與約束可表示為

(7)

在政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的委托代理關(guān)系中,雙方存在信息不對(duì)稱(chēng),即政府不能觀察到私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的行為a和自然狀態(tài)b,私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的趨利目標(biāo)決定它總選擇使自身期望效用最大的a,因此為求私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)期望效用函數(shù)最大值即對(duì)期望效用求a的偏導(dǎo):

(8)

因此,激勵(lì)相容約束為

(9)

私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)為實(shí)現(xiàn)最大效用付出k3k1/k4的努力,政府則通過(guò)私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)效用最大化行為a來(lái)選擇A和k3。政府的最大化效用表示為

(10)

將參與約束和激勵(lì)相容約束代入式(10)得：

從而得出激勵(lì)系數(shù)

(12)

式(12)為政府基于私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)效用最大化前提下的最優(yōu)激勵(lì)系數(shù)。

由式(9)、(12)可推導(dǎo)出水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目最優(yōu)供給量:

(13)

由式(13)可知,Q與k1成正比,與k4、ρ、k22、σ2成反比。由于k22、σ2并非人為因素可改變,所以Q取決于k1、k4和ρ。

將式(9)和式(12)代入式(6)可得私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)最佳效用為

由式(14)可知,私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的最佳效用與k1成正比,與k4、ρ成反比。

同理,將式(9)和式(12)代入式(3)可得政府最佳效用為:

(15)

由式(15)可知,政府最佳效用與k1、ρ正相關(guān),與k4負(fù)相關(guān)。

由上述分析可以看出,水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目中,政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的最佳效用均與k1成正比,與k4成反比。不同的是增大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度可提高政府部門(mén)的最佳效用,而私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)則剛好相反,它會(huì)因增大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度而遭受損失,同時(shí)導(dǎo)致政府信譽(yù)下降,在信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的情況下政府為重建聲譽(yù)所花的成本可能要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)短期所獲利益,因此基于長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)考慮政府部門(mén)違約是得不償失的。

3 對(duì)策與建議

由于水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的委托方和代理方之間信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)且雙方目標(biāo)不一致,因此容易產(chǎn)生逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題,阻礙了水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的供給,所以政府部門(mén)可根據(jù)水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量來(lái)設(shè)計(jì)激勵(lì)機(jī)制從而降低委托代理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。根據(jù)基于非對(duì)稱(chēng)信息委托代理模型對(duì)水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量的分析,以增加水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量為目標(biāo),提出如下建議。

3.1 提高私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)努力水平

提高私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)努力水平,可增加水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量,同時(shí)也能使私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)和政府部門(mén)的效用增大。①需要提高民營(yíng)企業(yè)對(duì)水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的投資意愿和投資熱情。雖然從2014年開(kāi)始,隨著一系列政策的出臺(tái),全國(guó)掀起了PPP熱潮,但僅是各級(jí)政府充滿熱情,社會(huì)資本則依然冷靜。2015年3月19日,民生證券研究院的一份研究報(bào)告顯示,地方政府推出的16 000億元PPP項(xiàng)目,僅有約2 100億元已簽約,占總額的1/8,很多項(xiàng)目無(wú)人問(wèn)津[12]。因此,為擴(kuò)大公益性較強(qiáng)的水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的供給量,民營(yíng)企業(yè)需要有較強(qiáng)的社會(huì)責(zé)任感,社會(huì)責(zé)任感越強(qiáng),投資的意愿也就越強(qiáng)烈。②在后期水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目建設(shè)和運(yùn)營(yíng)中,私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)需要嚴(yán)格按照合同要求執(zhí)行,不可肆意違約。同時(shí),政府也要建立健全監(jiān)督機(jī)制,保證水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施和有效運(yùn)營(yíng)。雖然PPP模式在我國(guó)已有30多年的歷史,但無(wú)論從理論還是實(shí)踐上來(lái)看,我國(guó)PPP模式實(shí)施的質(zhì)量均不高。為此,需建立專(zhuān)業(yè)監(jiān)督為主、社會(huì)監(jiān)督為輔的監(jiān)督管理機(jī)制,既包括經(jīng)營(yíng)績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià),也包括社會(huì)效益評(píng)價(jià),促進(jìn)民營(yíng)企業(yè)整體水平的提升。

3.2 降低私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)成本

在水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目中,私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)成本主要包括建設(shè)成本和運(yùn)營(yíng)成本。降低私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)成本,有利于增加水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量,也能提高私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)和政府部門(mén)的效用。①政府部門(mén)應(yīng)選擇資金實(shí)力雄厚、經(jīng)營(yíng)水平良好和信用度高的企業(yè)。②私營(yíng)企業(yè)應(yīng)引進(jìn)專(zhuān)業(yè)PPP人才,提高經(jīng)營(yíng)管理水平,使經(jīng)營(yíng)手段和經(jīng)營(yíng)策略推陳出新,從而規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn),降低成本。③政府應(yīng)適當(dāng)增加對(duì)私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼。一直以來(lái),使社會(huì)資本收益性和水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目的公益性保持平衡都是較大難題。

一般情況下,政府在水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目招標(biāo)過(guò)程中,為緩解財(cái)政壓力,吸引私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)參與競(jìng)標(biāo),會(huì)推出一系列優(yōu)惠條件,如減少稅收等以降低私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)成本。

3.3 降低私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度

降低私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度可增加水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量。由于私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)效用和政府部門(mén)效用變化隨ρ的變動(dòng)方向不一致,政府部門(mén)效用會(huì)隨著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度的增加而增加,這是因?yàn)檎捎谶`約可能會(huì)獲取短期利益,但民營(yíng)企業(yè)會(huì)因?yàn)槌袚?dān)較多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而蒙受損失,政府信譽(yù)會(huì)因此而下降,最終得不償失。因此需制定合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)方案以降低私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度。為此,政府部門(mén)首先事前要認(rèn)真規(guī)劃研究,通過(guò)對(duì)水利項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和生態(tài)效益進(jìn)行研究,以確定是否采取PPP模式;其次,在項(xiàng)目動(dòng)工前,預(yù)測(cè)實(shí)施過(guò)程中可能出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并制定相應(yīng)的解決措施,同時(shí)在施工過(guò)程中提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)透明度;第三,政府部門(mén)與私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分配應(yīng)遵循風(fēng)險(xiǎn)由最有能力和控制力一方承擔(dān)的原則;最后,政府部門(mén)與私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)在合作過(guò)程中應(yīng)保持充分的交流與溝通,從而降低私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度,保障水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量。

4 結(jié) 論

由于政府部門(mén)和私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)雙方信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)且目標(biāo)不一致,容易導(dǎo)致水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目招投標(biāo)階段逆向選擇和建設(shè)運(yùn)營(yíng)過(guò)程中產(chǎn)生道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn),從而影響水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量。在水利工程項(xiàng)目短缺的背景以及國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者已有研究的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目中政府部門(mén)與私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)之間的博弈機(jī)理,以政府部門(mén)為委托方,私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)為代理方,構(gòu)建了基于信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給激勵(lì)模型,得出水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目最優(yōu)供給量、私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)最大效用和政府部門(mén)最大效用,最后提出提高私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)努力水平、降低私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)成本、降低私營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度等增加水利工程PPP項(xiàng)目供給量的對(duì)策建議。

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Abstract: With the development of society and economy and the increase of population, the contradiction between flood safety and regional development is more and more obvious. However, the flood detention zone still plays an important role in the flood safety in short period. Based on the previous relocation compensation and resident suggestions in part of the representative regions in Huaihe River basin, the standard of temporary relocation during storage period of the flood detention zone and the guarantee mechanism of supply during its operation are preliminarily put forward in order to divert and store flood efficiently and to promote the sustainable development of regional society and economy.

Key words: flood detention zone; relocation compensation; guarantee mechanism

Urban water consumption and economic development: policy effect:Empirical analysis of 27 countries/

ZHAO Jinjin

(China Institute of Regulation Research, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China)

The long-term relationship between per-capita urban water consumption and economic development is released, and the policy effect is analyzed. Based on the panel data regression model, the situations of the urban water consumption collected in 27 countries from 1960 to 2010 are investigated. It is demonstrated that the relationship between the per-capita urban water consumption and the per-capita economic development exhibits an N-shaped pattern, namely, with the development of economy, the per-capita urban water consumption shows a process of “increase first and then decrease”. When the economic development reaches higher level, the urban water consumption tends to be stable and has a bit increase. Following the environmental Kuznets curve, we name this relationship the Kuznets curve of water. Two types of water policies, the water efficiency policy and the water effectiveness policy, are distinguished. The regression results suggest that both the two water policies significantly influence the per-capita urban water consumption. However, the water effectiveness policy requires longer period to show positive results than the water efficiency policy. This finding is of great significance to the formulation and implementation of the relevant policies. The optimization of water resources may be achieved through the rational allocation of different policies by the government so as to realize their sustainable development.

Kuznets curve of water; urban water consumption; policy

Relationship between water infrastructure and economic development in Jiangsu Province:Empirical analysis based on panel data/

1, 2, MA Jun1, 2, 3

(1. Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Research Center of Water and Sustainable Development in Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 211100, China; 3. Institute of Technology Innovation and Economic Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: The influences of water conservancy infrastructure on the economic development in Jiangsu Province are investigated by use of the panel data model based on the statistical data of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province between 2004 and 2013. The results show that the water infrastructure is one of the important factors for the economic development. Further agricultural water conservancy infrastructure cannot bring positive promotion to the economy in Jiangsu Province. While the strengthening of water conservancy infrastructure associated with the industrialization and urbanization gives power to the economic development in Jiangsu Province. Because of different economic development levels, the influences of water conservancy infrastructure on the economic development in the southern, central and northern areas of Jiangsu Province are different.

Key words: Jiangsu Province; water infrastructure; panel data model; three major economic regions

Supply of water conservancy PPP projects based on principal-agent model/

WU Haiyan1, 2, HUANG Dechun1, 2

(1. Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: To guarantee the supply of water conservancy PPP projects, the incentive mechanism of water conservancy PPP projects is established based on the principal-agent model under asymmetrical facilities by analyzing the gaming between the governmental departments and the private sectors. Then the optimal supply and the maximum utilities of the government and the private sectors are derived. Finally, three suggestions, including raising the efforts, reducing costs and risks of the private sectors, are put forward so as to provide theoretical foundation for supply of water conservancy PPP projects.

Key words: water conservancy project; PPP project; reform of supply side; principal-agent model

Use efficiency of water resources in Jiangsu Province under perspective of new urbanization/

ZHGANG Fengze, SONG Min, DENG Yibin

(Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China)

Abstract: With the advance of new urbanization, the problems of water shortage and water pollution have become increasingly prominent. A super logarithmic function model is established, and the water use efficiency in Jiangsu Province is calculated by using SFA. By selecting the indices of urbanization of population, social urbanization and industrial urbanization to represent the level of urbanization, the relationship between the use efficiency of water resources and the new urbanization in Jiangsu Province is analyzed based on the STIRPAT model. The conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The results of water use efficiency of three regions are the highest in the central areas, the lowest in the southern areas and in the middle in the northern area of Jiangsu Province. (2) The urbanization level of population has the greatest impact on water use efficiency in Jiangsu Province. (3) The social urbanization level is negatively correlated with the utilization efficiency of water resources, and the impact of industrial urbanization level on water use efficiency is quite different in various areas.

Key words: new urbanization; use efficiency of water resource; urbanization of population; social urbanigation; industrial urbanigation; Jiangsu Province

Management system of water resource assets/

CHEN Jianming, ZHOU Xiaopei, YUAN Ruhua, ZHU Kaiye

(Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: The connotation of water resource asset and its management are introduced. Under the circumstance of water resource asset owned by the national government of China, the use right of the management system of water resource asset is particularly studied. On the basis of the theories and practices of management of natural resource asset, the management system and institutional framework of water resource asset are designed and put forward. The comprehensive design of management system of water resource management may provide guidance and support for the construction of water right market and compiling of balance sheet of water resource asset.

Key words: water resource asset; management; management system; institutional framework

Application of value engineering in dredging Bengbu-Fushan reach of Huaihe River/

LIU Hu1, LIU Jinwen2

(1. Huaihe River Project Construction Management Bureau of Huaihe River Commission, Bengbu 233001, China; 2. Jiangsu Water Source Co., Ltd. of Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion, Nanjing 210029, China)

Abstract: The value engineering research model is introduced into the regulation project of the main stream of Huaihe River, and the adjustment and construction project of Xiangmiao-Fushan reach is treated as the research object of value engineering. The construction preparation stage is regarded as the entry point, and the related issues such as layout of mud disposal area in the river dredging project is the research focus. Through functional analysis and program creation, by means of the reasonable minimum engineering cost, the integrated optimal functional value of river regulation is achieved. The research results are directly applied to the project construction practice so as to optimize the design and implementation schemes and to save the project investment.

Key words: water conservancy engineering; value engineering; watercourse regulation; dredging; Huaihe River

Cost forecast of filling water for shipping in rivers/

YANG Gaosheng, LU Xingyun, JI Aijun, ZHANG Xiaojing, SUN Yuying

(Institute of Engineering Management, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

Abstract: The impact factors of cost are investigated through literature statistics and Delphi analysis. The active degrees of various costs of water supply and their influencing factors are obtained. Accordingly different forecast models for different costs of water supply with different active degrees are established. It may provide a reference for adjusting the standards of filling water fee for shipping. The applicability and rationality of these models are validated through the case study of Xietai water filling station.

Key words: cost forecast; filling water for shipping; active degree; Xietai water filling station

Transaction mode innovation and key scientific issues for general contract of water conservancy projects in China/

DING Jiyong1, WANG Zhuofu1, LING Yangming-xing1, REN Xiaoqiang2

(1. Institute of Engineering Management, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Power China Zhongnan Engineering Corporation, Changsha 410014, China)

Abstract: Influenced by the international standard contract conditions such as the FIDIC, the engineering and theoretical circles in China often connect the engineering general contract with the fixed price contract and its simple governance structure, which restricts its application and popularization in construction of water conservancy projects with uncertain site data invested by the government. The content of the engineering general contract is analyzed. It is pointed out that the largest advantage of engineering general contract is its integration of design and construction for a contractor so as to provide power, platform and space for the contractor to optimize the project and further to obtain added value of the project. For implementing the engineering general contract of water conservancy projects, the corresponding transaction mode should be innovated to adapt to their particularity and to give full play of their value-added advantage. The status of worldwide engineering general contract is analyzed, and some key scientific issues for the mode innovation of engineering general contract of water conservancy projects in China are put forward, mainly including project identification, mode design, distribution of added value and optimization of governance system at levels of owner and contract.

Key words: water conservancy project; general contract; transaction mode; key scientific issue; added value

Problems and causes of division of water conservancy administrative powers and expenditure responsibilities in China/

SONG Meizhe, LIU Hanbo

(Hunan University of Finance and Economics, Changsha 410205, China)

Abstract: In order to strengthening the system of water conservancy administrative powers in relation to expenditure responsibilities in China, to improve the efficiency of water conservancy funds and to promote the development of water conservancy, the existing problems in the current division of water conservancy administrative powers and expenditure responsibilities are discussed through the field investigations of many reservoirs, water locks, dykes and irrigation ditches mainly in Hunan Province. Then the causes are analyzed by using the polycentric governance theory, fiscal federalism theory and bureaucracy theory. The results show that the society and individuals excessively depend on the government in the regulation of water conservancy. The division of water conservancy administrative powers between higher and lower levels is unreasonable. The inter-boundary conflicts are hard to be solved. The division of water conservancy administrative powers among different government departments is overlapped, and there is coexistence of multiple departments in regulating water conservancy. The scale of special funds is large, and the fiscal fragmentation is serious. The main causes are as follows: the social and individual autonomy is not strong, and their self organizing ability is weak. The participation system in water conservancy is not perfect. The division of water conservancy administrative powers between higher and lower levels exhibits obvious administrative powers, same responsibilities and unfavorable gaming positions. The responsibility boundaries among different governmental departments are vague. The sector interests are fixed. Based on the above mentioned, a series of policy measures for reform of the division of the water conservancy administrative powers and expenditure responsibilities are put forward so as to form the equilibrium administrative mode for stakeholders with the government being the subject.

Key words: governmental water conservancy function; administrative power and expenditure responsibility; governmental offside; administrative decentralization; coexistence of multiple departments in regulating water conservancy

Evaluation of water-saving society construction in pollution-induced water shortage areas based on the most stringent water resource management system/

LIU Feifei, FANG Guohua, GAO Ying, LIU Qin

(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract: Based on the analysis of its connotation and characteristics, the evaluation index system of water-saving society construction in pollution-induced water shortage areas, which includes target layer, criterion layer, area layer and index layer, is formulated according to the three red lines of the most stringent water resource management. The evaluation model of water-saving society construction based on the chaos genetic algorithm and the projection pursuit is established. The level of the water-saving society construction in Kunshan City is evaluated. The results show that the level of the water-saving society construction in 2012, 2014 and 2020 is “good”, and that in 2025 is “excellent”. They are consistent with the actual situation and the goal in the program. It is indicated that the proposed index system and projection pursuit model constructed are feasible and effective to a certain degree.

Key words: the most stringent water resource management; pollution-induced water shortage; water-saving society; evaluation index system; projection pursuit; chaos genetic algorithm

Risk factor identification for use of flood detention zones in Huaihe River basin/

MAO Chunmei1, GU Yangyang1, YU Yanbo2, DU Yong3

(1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Technology Research Center, Huaihe River Commission, Bengbu 233001, China; 3. Beijing Institute of Water, Beijing 100048, China)

Abstract: As an important part of the flood control system, the flood detention zone plays an important role in mitigating the flood pressure on the embankments of Huaihe River. Using the flood detention zones will cause various risks such as economic losses, casualties and environmental pollution. The risk of using flood detention zones is the result of the common action of the factors which are potential of disaster factors, vulnerability of environment and disasters as well as frangibility of disaster prevention system. The risk factors of using flood detention zones are analyzed from four aspects, and the relevant risk control strategies are proposed.

Key words: flood detention zone; risk factor identification; risk control strategy; Huaihe River basin

Linkage of risk warning information transmission of flood detention zones in river basins:Based on perspective of stakeholder analysis of Mengwa Flood Detention Zone/

ZHANG Xin1, XIONG Min1, LIU Kun2

(1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Jinhua Ningtai Assessment Advisory Co., Ltd., Jinhua 321000, China)

Abstract: Taking Mengwa Flood Detention Zone of Huaihe River as an example, the framework of the main interests of stakeholders is analyzed. The field investigations and key information interviews are employed to determine the warning information of disasters, and the linkage path of the corresponding information transmission is proposed based on the information demand of stakeholders. A multi-level, multi-subject participation of information transmission path is proposed considering warning decision layer, management layer and implementation layer of flood detention zones. Accordingly, the interests of stakeholders are greatly guaranteed, and further, the maximum value of warning information transmission of disasters in flood detention zones is achieved.

Key words: stakeholder; flood detention zone; information transmission; interaction

Establishment and data updating of flood damage assessment database system of Huaihe River basin/

SUN Zhonggen1, JIANG Suna1, WANG Yunfei2

(1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 2. Department of Geography of Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China)

Abstract: As a design tool, GIS is taken to establish the flood damage quick assessment database system of flood detention zones of Huaihe River basin and to investigate its data collection, processing and updating. The results show that establishing the flood damage assessment database system of flood detention zones of Huaihe River basin mainly include the content of database, database source and processing, formulation of Geodatabase model as well as database management and sorting. Meanwhile, the database collection, processing and updating should be undertaken based on the current management system and various statistical paths of data in Huaihe River basin.

Key words: flood detention zone; damage; quick assessment; database; Huaihe River basin

Application of projection pursuit model to risk assessment of flood detention zones/

HUANG Jianyuan1, JIN Guangyu1, YU Yanbo2

(1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. The Research Centre of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Technology, Bengbu 233001, China)

Abstract: The risk assessment index system for flood detention zones is introduced into the projection pursuit model based on the information entropy, and the risk assessment projection values are obtained. According to the results, the use risks of flood detention zones of Huaihe River can be divided into four levels, that is, from high to low: “I level” (projection value≥4.16), including four flood detention zones and two flood areas of Shouxihu and Baojiwei; “II level” (projection value: 4.10～4.16), including four flood areas of Tangyuhu etc.; “III level” (projection value: 3.90～4.16), including seven flood areas of Xiangfuduan etc.; “IV level” (projection value: 0～3.90), including four flood areas of Qiujiahu etc.

Key words: information entropy; projection pursuit model; risk level; flood detention zone

Development and design of decision support system of flood detention zones based on controllable risk control/

SUN Yan1, LIU Zhonggang2, YU Yanbo3

(1. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Water Resources Department of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210029, China; 3. Technical Research Center of Huaihe River Commission, Bengbu 233001, China)

Abstract: With regard to the problems in the decision making of flood retention zones, Mengwa Flood Retention Zone is selected as the case study zone of “Application of decision support system of flood detention zone based on controllable risk techniques”. By integrating multi-source data and models based on GIS techniques and platform, the decision support tools for watershed planning and management of flood detention zones are established to help solve several problems, such as rapid and accurate evaluation of flood losses, efficient and rapid forecasting and alert of flood risks, control and management as well as emergency management framework.

Key words: decision support; system development; risk assessment; flood detention zone

Census mapping of socio-economic data by modeling loss assessment of flood disasters/

WANG Yufei1, 2, 3, SUN Yan4, ZHANG Hong1, 2, 3

(1. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023, China; 2. State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), Nanjing 210023, China; 3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China; 4. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract: By analyzing the relationship between attribute of socio-economic data and type of land use, a new refined method for census mapping of the socio-economic data is proposed. It can accurately and satisfactorily realize the census mapping of socio-economic data so as to provide reliable data and decision-making basis for loss assessment of flood disasters. The results of simulated flood loss of typical case studies are very close to the loss information of the field investigations and other studies. It is indicated that the proposed census mapping based on the attribute of socio-economic data and the type of land use is feasible and applicable.

Key words: socio-economic data; census mapping; loss of flood disaster; quick assessment

Temporary relocation and guarantee mechanism of supply of flood detention zones/

WANG Zaiming1, YU Yanbo2, JI Yizhu1, HE Xilong1

(1. China Water Huaihe Planning, Design & Research Co., Ltd., Hefei 230000, China; 2. Research Centre of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Technology, Huaihe River Commission, Bengbu 233001, China)

國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(71573072);國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重大項(xiàng)目 (11ZD168);國(guó)家外國(guó)專(zhuān)家局高端外國(guó)專(zhuān)家項(xiàng)目(GDW20153200137);長(zhǎng)江學(xué)者和創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)發(fā)展計(jì)劃(IRT13062)

吳海燕(1992—),女,江蘇如東人,碩士研究生,主要從事工程經(jīng)濟(jì)研究。E-mail:wuhaiyan939@126.com

10.3880/j.issn.1003-9511.2016.05.003

F284

A

1003-9511(2016)05-0011-03

2016-04-33 編輯：胡新宇)