聶文廣++黃琦

摘要：使用2004—2012年中國(guó)31個(gè)?。ㄊ校┑拿姘鍞?shù)據(jù)，實(shí)證分析了中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與糧食產(chǎn)量之間的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明，從全國(guó)來(lái)看，農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)對(duì)糧食產(chǎn)量在1%顯著水平有促進(jìn)作用，但是糧食產(chǎn)量對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的彈性系數(shù)僅為0.010 2；從三大區(qū)域來(lái)看，東部和西部地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)對(duì)糧食產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)有顯著的正向作用，彈性系數(shù)分別為0.015 2和0.010 6，中部地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)對(duì)糧食產(chǎn)量增加影響不顯著；從糧食產(chǎn)區(qū)上看，非糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)對(duì)糧食產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)有著顯著的正向影響，彈性系數(shù)為0.016 4，糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)對(duì)糧食產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)無(wú)顯著影響。因此，應(yīng)有針對(duì)性地加大農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)支持力度、合理調(diào)整農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)，切實(shí)發(fā)揮農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)對(duì)糧食生產(chǎn)的促進(jìn)作用。

關(guān)鍵詞：農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)；糧食產(chǎn)量；彈性系數(shù)；區(qū)域差異

中圖分類(lèi)號(hào)：F840.66 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：0439-8114（2015）16-4077-06

DIO：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2015.16.064

Research on Relationship between Agricultural Insurance and Grain Production Increase

——An Empirical Analysis of the Panel Data from 31 Provinces of China

NIE Wen-guang，HUANG Qi

（Hubei Rural Development Research Center， College of Economics and Management of Huazhong Agricultural University，

Wuhan 430070， China）

Abstract： Using the 2004-2012 panel data of 31 provinces（municipalities） of China， the relationship between Chinese agricultural insurance and grain production was analyzed from enpirical perspective. The results showed that， from the whole country， the agricultural insurance have positive effect on grain production at 1% significant level， but the elasticity coefficient of grain production to agricultural insurance was only 0.010 2； from three regions， in eastern and western regions the agricultural insurance have notable positive effect on grain production increase， the elasticity coefficients were 0.015 2 and 0.010 6 respectively， and in central region the effect of agricultural insurance on grain production increase was insignificant； from the grain production regions，in non-major grain production regions the agricultural insurance have notable positive effcet on grain production increase， the elasticity coifficient was 0.016 4， and in major grain production regions the agricultural insurance have insignificant effcet on grain production increase. Therefore， it′s necessary to strengthen support for the agricultural insurance， to adjust structure of the agricultural insurance reasonably， accordingly to ensure agricultural insurance play promotion role in grain production.

Key words： agricultural insurance； grain production； elasticity coefficient； regional difference.

如何提高糧食產(chǎn)量，確保國(guó)家糧食安全是關(guān)乎國(guó)計(jì)民生的重要問(wèn)題，糧食安全已上升為國(guó)家重大戰(zhàn)略部署。近年來(lái)，糧食安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然存在，主要表現(xiàn)在耕地面積逐年減少、糧食消費(fèi)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。糧食安全問(wèn)題的解決關(guān)鍵是提高糧食自給能力，然而中國(guó)是一個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害頻發(fā)的國(guó)家，農(nóng)民的抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力較弱，糧食生產(chǎn)在一定程度上受到農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害的影響，僅2012年全國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害成災(zāi)面積就有182.63萬(wàn)hm2，直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失3 533.4億元；農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害不僅造成糧食減產(chǎn)，同時(shí)也降低了農(nóng)民生產(chǎn)的積極性，不利于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)。農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)則具有轉(zhuǎn)移、分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，提高農(nóng)民風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受能力的作用。自2004年起，連續(xù)11年的中央一號(hào)文件均提出發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的要求，在政策層面強(qiáng)調(diào)了發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的重要性，農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展取得重大進(jìn)展。2012年全國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)純保費(fèi)收入238.71億元、賠付總額129.06億元，達(dá)到歷史最高。農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)是否通過(guò)轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)促進(jìn)了農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)，農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與糧食產(chǎn)出之間的關(guān)系值得探討。endprint