徐曼 劉琦 趙秀潔 （通訊作者） 大連東軟信息學(xué)院 遼寧大連 116000

ABSTRACT: This paper proceeds from the reality, through collecting data and using mathematical algorithms to explain the growth of electricity consumption caused by the use of mobile phones and the waste of energy caused by various kinds of household appliances. The power consumption of mobile phones is on the rise, and the increasing extent is gradually increasing, while the power consumption of fixed phones is declining with the rapid growth of the power consumption of mobile phones after a small increase. Different models are established to distinguish the charging frequency of mobile phones in different times and individual energy-saving consciousness, and the annual power consumption is analyzed.At present, China's electricity wasted by this kind of electrical appliances is 2500 degrees per ton of coal per day. It can be calculated that China wastes 6738296.354 degrees per day on average and converts it into coal, that is to say, 2695.318541 tons of coal are wasted.

Key words: Population competition model logistic function probability statistics saves electricity

Analysis, Establishment and Solution of Model

Through the logistic curve fitting of mobile phone penetration rate from 1998 to 2018, the fixed phone penetration rate is Gaussian fitting.

According to the fitting results, the coefficients of the above formulas can be obtained, and the change equation of mobile phone penetration rate and fixed phone penetration rate is determined as follows:

The error test is carried out here: the sum of square error is 0.0504, and the calculation result is reasonable.

The fitted trend line equation of fixed telephone is as follows:

1. Power consumption of fixed telephone

In this paper, the types of development of fixed telephone in China since 1998 are analyzed. There has been no significant change in power consumption of fixed telephone since 1998. Therefore, this paper assumes that the annual power consumption of fixed telephone is certain, and fixed telephone belongs to non-consumable goods. According to the data query,the average annual power consumption of a fixed unit is 3.7394 degrees.

Fixed-line annual power consumption = average annual power consumption per phone*fixed-line number

2. Mobile phone power consumption

（1） Charging power consumption: By understanding the development history of mobile phones in China, we know that the power consumption of mobile phones is increasing, but there is no significant change in the power consumption of one charge. According to the experiment, the power consumption of one charge is about 0.099 degrees. The change of charging interval is used to indicate the difference of power consumption of mobile phones over the years. According to the data, it is known that in 1998, mobile phones charged once a day on average. According to the current situation of mobile phone charging, it is assumed that mobile phones charged once a day on average by 2025, and the charging interval of mobile phones decreased linearly. Set the average cell phone charged once every N days.

（2） Base Station Power Consumption: Mobile communication is served by the base station, which will consume a certain amount of electricity when establishing a call. According to the data query, each base station can carry up to 61 simultaneous dialogues. Considering the call probability,the maximum number of calls that a base station can carry is 2745. The annual power consumption of a standard base station is about 13499.91 degrees. According to the number of mobile phones per year, the number of base stations per year can be determined, and then the power consumption of base stations per year can be calculated.

（3） According to the survey, the average service life of each cell phone is 3.2 years, and it needs 10 degrees of electric energy to produce each cell phone.

Mobile phone power consumption = one charge per year* number of mobile phones * number of charges + base station power consumption * total number of base stations + power required to produce a mobile phone * number of mobile phones/ service life

To sum up, the total power consumption of mobile phones and fixed phones in the process of mobile phone transition in China should be as follows:

The power consumption of mobile phones is on the rise,and the increasing extent is gradually increasing, while the power consumption of fixed phones is declining with the rapid growth of the power consumption of mobile phones after a small increase.