國家統(tǒng)計局國際統(tǒng)計信息中心

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·國際統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)·

世界經(jīng)濟主要指標

國家統(tǒng)計局國際統(tǒng)計信息中心

一、世界經(jīng)濟

表1 世界經(jīng)濟增長率(上年=100) 單位：%

注：(1)國際貨幣基金組織公布的世界及分類數(shù)據(jù)按照購買力平價方法進行匯總，世界銀行和英國共識公司按匯率法進行匯總。 (2)印度數(shù)據(jù)指財政年度。(3)各經(jīng)濟體2015年數(shù)據(jù)已據(jù)其官方發(fā)布結果做了調整。

表2 世界貿易量增長率(上年=100) 單位：%

注： 包括貨物和服務,為出口量增速和進口量增速的簡單平均數(shù)。

資料來源: 國際貨幣基金組織2017年4月預測。

表3 消費者價格漲跌率(上年=100) 單位：%

注： (1)印度來源于英國共識公司的數(shù)據(jù)指財政年度。(2)各經(jīng)濟體2015年數(shù)據(jù)已據(jù)其官方發(fā)布結果做了調整。

表4 消費者價格同比上漲率 單位：%

資料來源：世界銀行數(shù)據(jù)庫。

表5 工業(yè)生產(chǎn)

注：(1)工業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)同比增長率為經(jīng)季節(jié)調整的數(shù)據(jù)。(2)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)超過50預示著經(jīng)濟擴張期。

資料來源：世界銀行數(shù)據(jù)庫、美國供應管理協(xié)會。

二、美國經(jīng)濟

表6 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

表7 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

注：季度數(shù)據(jù)按季節(jié)因素調整、折年率計算(表6、表7)。

資料來源：美國商務部經(jīng)濟分析局(表6、表7)。

表8 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(同比) 單位：%

表9 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(同比) 單位：%

注：季度數(shù)據(jù)按季節(jié)因素調整(表8、表9)。

資料來源：美國商務部經(jīng)濟分析局(表8、表9)。

表10 勞動力市場 單位：%

注：除年度數(shù)據(jù)以外，勞動生產(chǎn)率增長率為該月份所在季度的增長率。

資料來源：美國勞工統(tǒng)計局。

表11 進出口貿易 單位：億美元

注：包括貨物和服務貿易。因季節(jié)調整，各月合計數(shù)據(jù)不等于全年總計數(shù)據(jù)。

資料來源：美國商務部普查局。

表12 外國直接投資 單位：億美元

資料來源：美國商務部經(jīng)濟分析局。

三、歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟

表13 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

表14 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

資料來源：歐盟統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)庫(表13、表14)。

表15 勞動力市場 單位：%

注：除年度數(shù)據(jù)以外，勞動生產(chǎn)率增長率為該月份所在季度增長率；就業(yè)人數(shù)為該月份所在季度的環(huán)比變化。

資料來源：歐洲央行統(tǒng)計月報、歐盟統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)庫。

表16 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(同比) 單位：%

表17 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(同比) 單位：%

資料來源：歐盟統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)庫(表16、表17)。

表18 進出口貿易 單位：億歐元

注：歐元區(qū)絕對數(shù)指歐元區(qū)現(xiàn)有范圍，即19個成員國。貿易額不包括歐元區(qū)各成員國相互之間的貿易額，為經(jīng)季節(jié)調整后的數(shù)據(jù)。

資料來源：歐盟統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)庫。

表19 外國直接投資 單位：億歐元

注：歐元區(qū)絕對數(shù)指歐元區(qū)現(xiàn)有范圍，即19個成員國。歐元區(qū)外國直接投資額不包括歐元區(qū)各成員國相互之間的直接投資額。

資料來源：歐洲央行統(tǒng)計月報。

四、日本經(jīng)濟

表20 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

表21 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

表22 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(同比) 單位：%

表23 國內生產(chǎn)總值及其構成增長率(同比) 單位：%

資料來源：日本內閣府(表20～表23)。

表24 勞動力市場 單位：%

資料來源：日本統(tǒng)計局和日本央行統(tǒng)計月報。

表25 進出口貿易 單位：億日元

注：月度貿易額為季節(jié)調整后數(shù)據(jù)。

資料來源：日本財務省。

表26 外國直接投資 單位：億日元

資料來源：日本財務省。

五、其他主要國家和地區(qū)經(jīng)濟

表27 國內生產(chǎn)總值增長率(同比) 單位：%

注：印度年度GDP增長率為財年增長率。

表28 國內生產(chǎn)總值增長率(同比) 單位：%

資料來源：各經(jīng)濟體官方統(tǒng)計網(wǎng)站。

表29 勞動力市場失業(yè)率 單位：%

表30 勞動力市場失業(yè)率 單位：%

注：(1)英國和中國香港月度數(shù)據(jù)為截至當月的3個月移動平均失業(yè)率。(2)加拿大、英國、韓國和中國香港為經(jīng)季節(jié)因素調整后的失業(yè)率。

資料來源：各經(jīng)濟體官方統(tǒng)計網(wǎng)站。

表31 進出口貿易 單位：億美元

注：加拿大和英國數(shù)據(jù)經(jīng)過季節(jié)因素調整。

表32 進出口貿易 單位：億美元

表33 進出口貿易 單位：億美元

表34 進出口貿易 單位：億美元

表35 進出口貿易 單位：億美元

表36 進出口貿易 單位：億美元

資料來源：各經(jīng)濟體官方統(tǒng)計網(wǎng)站(表27～表36)。

六、三大經(jīng)濟體指標對比圖

圖1 三大經(jīng)濟體GDP環(huán)比增長率(%)注：美國為環(huán)比折年率增長率。

圖2 三大經(jīng)濟體失業(yè)率變動(%)

圖3 三大經(jīng)濟體出口額同比增長率(%)

圖4 三大經(jīng)濟體進口額同比增長率(%) 數(shù)據(jù)來源：各經(jīng)濟體官方統(tǒng)計網(wǎng)站(圖1～圖4)。

(1)Deepening the reform: the key to the formation of middle-income mainstream groups

Tian Xueyuan

in 2016, with its per capita GDP reaching US $8102, China entered the middle stage of the middle and high income period, which was a critical period for the formation of middle-income mainstream groups. At the moment, the most important tasks are to deepen the social and economic reforms in an all-round way, especially the reforms of economic transformation and structural adjustment, the integration of rural migrant workers into the cities and the income distribution system. To accelerate the formation of economic foundation of middle-income groups, deepening economic transformation and structural adjustment are the key, and breaking through key limitations of the traditional mode of development and demand side reforms to achieve transformation from the demand side to supply side reforms are necessary. Rural migrants entering the town is the objective needs of the social economic development in our country, having become an integral part of city economy and social life, which called for reform that turns the peasants into citizens. In recent years, the trend of urban and rural income gap has been somewhat convergent, but the gap is still large. The Gini coefficient changes with the peak value of 2008 as the dividing line, and at present the Gini coefficient is still high, which calls for reform to deepen the income distribution system.

(2)The counter tide of anti-globalization and the deepening of economic globalization

Chen Zongsheng and Kang Jian

Under the doldrums of the economic situation after the global financial crisis, structural imbalances and serious intensification of class interests differentiation of in developed countries induced the birth of the current anti-globalization counter flow. Globalization is facing serious challenges, and the uncertainties faced by its process are increasing, but the long-term trend of deepening globalization will not be reversed. The rising emerging economies together with the reallocation, flow, integration of technology, capital, labor and institutional factors in the global scope of the interactive form together form the driving force for globalization and will push forward globalization towards the direction of continued deepening. As the leading country of emerging economies, China under the new situation should become the active promoter of globalization, whose basic strategic initiatives include the promotion of supply side structural reform, innovation-driven development, “The Belt and Road” initiative, the internationalization of the RMB, and actively participatation in the construction of global economic governance and Governance system.

(3)The return to manufacturing: the only way to save Hongkong’s economy——Suggestions on the construction of the cross border economic corridor of emerging industries of Hong Kong and Shenzhen

Li Luoli

The most fundamental problem of Hongkong’s society is the economic problem. The fundamental way to revive the economy of Hongkong is to solve the problem of industrial hollowing out in Hongkong and the key is for the manufacturing industry to return to Hongkong. In view of the Hongkong local high business cost, and the lack of the premise and basis of configuring emerging industrial resources, this article proposes the establishment of a new industrial economic zone in the boundary of Shenzhen and Hong Kong similar to “Singapore Jurong industrial corridor”, to attract both domestic and global outstanding high-tech enterprises and emerging industries to settle down here, taking advantages of Hongkong in financial, logistics, international free port, and of China mainland mainly Shenzhen in capital, talent and technology to develop the Shenzhen Hong Kong cross-border high-tech industry economic corridor to be China 4.0 industrial innovation circle. The construction of the economic corridor of emerging industries between Hong Kong and Shenzhen is the fundamental measure to maintain Hongkong’s stability and prosperity in the new period. It is suggested to incorporate the construction of the “cross border economic corridor of emerging industries of Hong Kong and Shenzhen” into the national strategy.

(4)Several fatal traps must be highly vigilant

Huang Zhiling

Taking a broad view of the economic and social development of countries all over the world, we find some countries are bogged down and unable to extricate themselves, while some countries have succeeded in crossing traps and developing continuously. This paper in-depth analyzes several deadly traps of social and economic development, from the conditions, mechanism, prevention, fatal consequences and how to avoid. The liquidity trap is the long-term accumulation of extreme situations of deflation, the excessive welfare trap is due to the accumulation of economic aging effect, corruption trap is a major obstacle traps across the “middle income trap”. By international comparison of positive and negative experience, we argue that only the social consensus, comprehensive assessment, careful selection, and positive guidance can avoid the tragedy, stride across a deadly trap, and realize the social and economic development and upgrade.

(5)An analysis on the probability and effectiveness of Trump’s economic policy implementation

Gu Yuanyang

during the presidential election, Trump threw out a series of economic propositions, which were hotly discussed and responded differently. President Trump and his cabinet members will base on the responses from both internal and external of the party and from home and abroad to correct economic propositions put forward, and make those internal and external economic ideas gradually clearer, to form the economic policies and strategies of the new government. However, actually it is not easy to implement due to internal and external constraints at home and abroad, and the internal contradictions and inherent differences in actual policy will emerge. Whether Trump’s several important measures to stimulate the economy can achieve the desired goal depends on a variety of factors and conditions, which needs objective analysis and verification by practice.

(6)Trade war under the background of economic globalization: theoretical analysis and China’s countermeasures

Ke Jianfei and Yu Lixin

The trend of economic globalization is irreversible, and economic ties among countries are becoming increasingly close. At present the world economic recovery is weak, trade protection forces gain ground, and trade frictions are escalating. From the operational loss theory of the Lanchester equation using the trade data between the two powers, we simulate the impact of trade between the two countries under the background of economic globalization. The results of the study show that a trade war will have a huge impact on bilateral trade with generally trade surplus countries to suffer the more, and considering the reputation incentive trade war, the trade volume of countries pursuing inclusive and open trade policy decreases and then slowly rises. Based on the analysis of current situation and trends of bilateral trade relations between China and the United States, and combined with China’s actual situation, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions of countermeasures on expanding the market, enhancing own strength, perfecting the system and early warning system.

(7) A proposal to promote the establishment of a global cyberspace governance system

Zhang Yingqiang

To promote the establishment of a global network space management system, this article suggests to establish and perfect the national cyberspace strategic layout, speed up the implementation of the “network power” strategy; actively carry out the “digital diplomacy”, have a clear-cut stance to put forward “Chinese multi-stakeholder governance model; vigorously develop the “digital economy” and enhance our country’s network space influence; construct the new model of “you have me, I have you” for of Sino US network spatial relationship; establish the technology system of self-control network space and strengthen China’s information security; establish new governance system for the global “digital economy” to lead a new global economic development; establish and perfect the new system of the digital economy and promote the reform of administrative management system; establish a unified social credit system and optimize the development environment for the “digital economy”; take the initiative to set up the “agenda” for the governance of cyberspace and promote the construction of a new system for global cyberspace governance.

(8)Progress and prospect of new urbanization in China

Li Di

In 2015-2016 with the gradual improvement of system construction to promote new urbanization, the quality and efficiency of China’s urbanization construction gradually improved, urban and rural areas significantly improved, and the leading role of city group for the new urbanization grew. But we should also see the problems accumulated during the early stage of urbanization such as the non-integration between production and city, “people” and “l(fā)and” contradictions, land acquisition and demolition and reconstruction of the village in the city, the level of public services lagging behind the process of urbanization, urban and rural governance and other issues which have not been fundamentally solve and need solving imminently. In 2017, with the gradual release of policies and planning effect, the quality and efficiency of China’s new urbanization development continue to improve, but China’s new urbanization still needs strengthening the system design, developing city agglomeration economy, constructing intensive city, and promoting the system construction for urban and rural governance.

(9)The present situation, problems and countermeasures of the innovative city construction in China

Wang Riyue, Xu Chenyang, and Fang Zixian

The future science and technology center must be in the form of the city, which is a new form of the city with scientific and technological innovation as the main function and the core mechanism. Beijing, Shanghai and other central cities still need improving in the creation of innovative space environment. How to address the uncertainties of cities, deal with the relationship between the development of creative industry, the city major infrastructure and city space structure, and creating a good environment for the development of innovative enterprise are priorities among priorities to establish the status of International Innovation Center to achieve sustainable development. The birth, transformation and radiation of innovation need not be completely confined with in the core area of the city. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the foundation for innovation cities, and whether a city is an innovative city depends on the innovation of small and medium enterprises.

Editor：Huang Yongfu

責任編輯：陳璇璇

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