□ 文/本刊記者 黎敏

Written by Li Min / Translated by Xu Zhiliang

進(jìn)口受限 出口受阻中國(guó)林產(chǎn)品國(guó)際貿(mào)易路在何方

□ 文/本刊記者 黎敏

2016年12月2日，本刊記者從2016中國(guó)—東盟博覽會(huì)林木展系列活動(dòng)——第六屆中國(guó)（南寧）林產(chǎn)品國(guó)際貿(mào)易論壇上了解到，中國(guó)林產(chǎn)品國(guó)際貿(mào)易在不斷發(fā)展的同時(shí)，正經(jīng)歷著進(jìn)口受限、出口受阻的發(fā)展陣痛，“轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)”成為諸多業(yè)內(nèi)人士的共識(shí)。

進(jìn)出不暢的貿(mào)易困局

從建材到家具，從竹藤到紙張，人們對(duì)這些林產(chǎn)品再熟悉不過(guò)，但是中國(guó)因?yàn)樯仲Y源匱乏，所以許多林產(chǎn)品都是“進(jìn)口貨”，中國(guó)林產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)對(duì)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的依存度也因此居高不下。原木、紙產(chǎn)品、紙漿、單板和鋸材是中國(guó)進(jìn)口林產(chǎn)品的主要門類，而相關(guān)的進(jìn)口貿(mào)易我們不難在中國(guó)與東盟國(guó)家的貿(mào)易中找到。

森林資源相對(duì)豐富的東盟國(guó)家一直都是中國(guó)林產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口的重要來(lái)源地之一。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年中國(guó)—東盟的林業(yè)貿(mào)易額達(dá)到了318億美元，其中中國(guó)從東盟各國(guó)的進(jìn)口額達(dá)到200億美元。印尼、老撾、馬來(lái)西亞、緬甸、泰國(guó)、越南等都是中國(guó)非常重要的林產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易伙伴。但這種依賴進(jìn)口的情況隨著“木材出口禁令潮”的掀起正面臨挑戰(zhàn)。截至目前，柬埔寨、老撾、緬甸、泰國(guó)、越南等中國(guó)在東盟的主要林產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易伙伴都頒布了木材出口禁令，這直接導(dǎo)致了木材，特別是原木價(jià)格的暴漲，進(jìn)而影響到林產(chǎn)品國(guó)際貿(mào)易企業(yè)的原料進(jìn)口、成本管理及產(chǎn)品出口環(huán)節(jié)。

“在2015年中國(guó)1400億美元的林產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額中，林產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口額為647億美元，出口則為753億美元?！睋?jù)中國(guó)林業(yè)局林產(chǎn)品國(guó)際貿(mào)易研究中心副主任陳勇介紹，中國(guó)的林產(chǎn)品國(guó)際貿(mào)易除了占據(jù)近半壁江山的進(jìn)口，林產(chǎn)品出口也體量龐大。

過(guò)去，中國(guó)出口的林產(chǎn)品主要以經(jīng)濟(jì)林產(chǎn)品等為主，在林產(chǎn)品工業(yè)發(fā)展的過(guò)程中，家具、紙、紙板等高附加值產(chǎn)品的出口量也有所增加。但出口的目的地仍然集中在亞洲、北美洲和歐洲，以日本、美國(guó)為代表的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家。高度集中的貿(mào)易輸出，為貿(mào)易摩擦埋下了隱患。

陳勇副主任說(shuō)：“國(guó)際林產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易愈發(fā)注重環(huán)境保護(hù)，合法性貿(mào)易法規(guī)逐漸成為發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家限制發(fā)展中國(guó)家貿(mào)易的手段，中國(guó)已經(jīng)成為一些國(guó)家實(shí)施貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的首要對(duì)象。”例如森林認(rèn)證、產(chǎn)銷監(jiān)管鏈認(rèn)證，意味著林產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易從原木、加工到流通等各個(gè)生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)都需要“有據(jù)可查”，但東盟國(guó)家等中國(guó)林產(chǎn)品主要的進(jìn)口來(lái)源地，對(duì)于森林資源管理的法律與機(jī)制尚待健全，溯源難度大，無(wú)形中增加了中國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品認(rèn)證的復(fù)雜性。

而受經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)影響，“逆全球化”升溫，導(dǎo)致國(guó)際上顯性或隱性的“綠色貿(mào)易壁壘”有增無(wú)減。除此之外，中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)勞動(dòng)力成本、環(huán)境成本的增加，部分林產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)能的富余，也使得中國(guó)林產(chǎn)品國(guó)際貿(mào)易難以再按原來(lái)的方式發(fā)展。北京林業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院教授程寶棟認(rèn)為，在這樣的背景之下，中國(guó)的林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)需要轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)。

2016年第六屆中國(guó)（南寧）林產(chǎn)品國(guó)際貿(mào)易論壇

從“騰籠換鳥(niǎo)”到“鳳凰涅槃”

無(wú)論是為了應(yīng)對(duì)日趨復(fù)雜的國(guó)際貿(mào)易形勢(shì)，還是解決國(guó)內(nèi)成本與產(chǎn)能的問(wèn)題，中國(guó)林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的緊迫性與必要性已然成為業(yè)內(nèi)共識(shí)。那么轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)該從哪兒破局呢？

令人欣喜的是，我們?cè)谑兄眴挝贿B續(xù)五年時(shí)間“每年打造10家示范典型”的建家活動(dòng)初見(jiàn)成效，涌現(xiàn)出市煤管局、市供銷社、市建設(shè)局、市職技院、市一中、市住房公積金管理中心等富有鮮明特色的示范單位。

“中國(guó)的林產(chǎn)品眼下主要還是出口歐美發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，但未來(lái)中美之間的貿(mào)易摩擦可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步上升，這部分傳統(tǒng)市場(chǎng)不再被看好。不過(guò)，我們可以將目光轉(zhuǎn)向‘一帶一路’沿線的新興市場(chǎng)?！背虒殫澖淌谡f(shuō)，“中國(guó)倡導(dǎo)的‘一帶一路’，沿線涉及65個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)，東盟是其中一個(gè)重要的方向，隨著TPP（跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定）的停滯，RCEP（區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系）、中國(guó)—東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)升級(jí)版將為中國(guó)—東盟包括林產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易在內(nèi)的雙邊貿(mào)易帶來(lái)利好?！?/p>

“一帶一路”沿線多數(shù)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平還相對(duì)落后，有發(fā)展勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的優(yōu)勢(shì)，而這也給中國(guó)與其開(kāi)展產(chǎn)能合作提供了空間。據(jù)悉，中國(guó)正計(jì)劃在東盟具備條件的國(guó)家開(kāi)展森林資源開(kāi)發(fā)利用合作，轉(zhuǎn)移和利用國(guó)內(nèi)木材加工、林業(yè)機(jī)械制造等優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)能，建成一批集森林資源采伐、加工、貿(mào)易與物流于一體的境外木材加工園區(qū)，在實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)資源優(yōu)化配置的同時(shí)，為當(dāng)?shù)貛ゼ夹g(shù)與就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。

“為了可持續(xù)地推動(dòng)中國(guó)和緬甸的林業(yè)合作，我們正在與緬甸政府協(xié)商，計(jì)劃在緬甸建立（林業(yè)）境外合作區(qū)，并簽署相關(guān)合作協(xié)議，以規(guī)范雙方林產(chǎn)品加工貿(mào)易等?！标愑赂敝魅卧诮邮鼙究浾卟稍L時(shí)說(shuō)，“隨著‘一帶一路’建設(shè)的穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)，中國(guó)—東盟的林產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易有許多機(jī)遇點(diǎn)，但這需要政府、企業(yè)、協(xié)會(huì)間加強(qiáng)聯(lián)系與交流，已連續(xù)舉辦6屆的中國(guó)—東盟博覽會(huì)林木展，就是中國(guó)—東盟林業(yè)界交流溝通的一個(gè)很好的平臺(tái)?！?/p>

“東盟國(guó)家是‘一帶一路’上比較成熟的新興市場(chǎng)，市場(chǎng)潛力大，東盟國(guó)家的消費(fèi)者對(duì)于木文化也比較推崇，因此無(wú)論是國(guó)際貿(mào)易出口，還是開(kāi)展國(guó)際產(chǎn)能合作、到當(dāng)?shù)赝顿Y設(shè)廠，企業(yè)選擇東盟國(guó)家，成功的可能性都更大?！?程寶棟教授在接受本刊記者采訪時(shí)說(shuō)，“中國(guó)林產(chǎn)品企業(yè)‘走出去’，進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移，就像‘騰籠換鳥(niǎo)’，但這并不意味著中國(guó)就不發(fā)展林木產(chǎn)業(yè)了，而是要在技術(shù)研發(fā)、在品牌升級(jí)上下功夫，這就是我們說(shuō)的‘鳳凰涅槃’，將‘大進(jìn)大出’轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤畠?yōu)進(jìn)優(yōu)出’。但是品牌的建設(shè)并不是一蹴而就的，往往中國(guó)企業(yè)打造一個(gè)聞名于世的品牌并不容易，因此我們可以鼓勵(lì)中國(guó)企業(yè)去并購(gòu)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的品牌，這也是品牌升級(jí)的一種選擇?！?/p>

·聯(lián)系編輯：313464302@qq.com

The Way Out for Chinese Forest Products Stuck in the Dilemma of Import & Export Trade

Written by Li Min / Translated by Xu Zhiliang

China is a major country involved in the international trade in forest products, the total import-export volume of which increased from US$ 100 billion in 2010 to US$ 140 billion in 2015, growing at 7.5 percent annually, according to the statistics.

The 6thForest Products International Trade Forum, under CAEXPO Forest & Wood Products Exhibition 2016, was successfully held in Nanning on December 2, 2016, when experts and practitioners suggested that it is imperative to speed up the transformation and upgrading of international trade in forest products.

Impeded import & export trade

Over the years, most forest products in China are imported from the overseas markets like ASEAN countries, ranging from building materials to furniture and from bamboo & rattan to paper, due to the lack of forest resources. Now China is mainly importing log, paper products, paper pulp, veneer and converted timber from foreign countries.

ASEAN countries relatively abundant in forest resources remain a major source of China’s imported forest products. It is reported that the trade volume of China-ASEAN totaled US$ 31.8 billion in 2015, including US$ 20 billion produced by China’s import from ASEAN countries.

However, China’s major forest product trading partners in the ASEAN region, including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam, have issued their respective timber export bans successively, leading to the rising price of timber, particularly the price of log, and adversely affecting the main links of enterprises specializing in forest products, such as raw-material import, cost management and product export.

“In 2015, the import & export trade volume of China in terms of forest products totaled US$ 140 billion: the total import was US$ 64.7 billion, and the total export US$ 75.3 billion,” said Mr. Chen Yong, deputy director of the Forest Product International Trade Research Center which is affiliated to the State Forestry Administration of the People’s Republic of China.

In the past, China mainly imported forest products dominated by the economic forest, and the export volume of high value-added products needed like furniture, paper and paperboard was on the increase. Mr. Chen said, “As environmental protection becomes a major issue of international trade involving forest product, legitimate trade regulations will be utilized by developed countries to impose limits on the trade of developing countries. And China has become the primary target of trade protectionism implemented by some countries.”

In addition, due to the increase of labor cost and environmental cost in China’s domestic market and the excess production capacity of some forest products, it is urgent to transform and upgrade the outdated development modes in terms of forest product trade.

International cooperation and self-improvement

Analysts noted that China’s forest products are still mainly exported to Europe and America; however, we feel pessimistic about part of such traditional exportdestinations. With the China-led Belt and Road Initiative being implemented, we could focus on the emerging markets surrounding the Belt and Road, among which ASEAN could be one of China’s major trading partners in the f eld of forest product trade.

China is set to cooperate with some ASEAN countries in terms of the development and utilization of forest resources; meanwhile, overseas wood processing parks featured by felling, processing, trade and logistics would be established by transferring and utilizing China’s high-quality production capacity like wood processing and forestry machinery manufacturing. By doing so, not only can the allocation of Chinese forestry enterprises be optimized, but also more employment opportunities and advanced technologies can be brought to the local areas. For instance, to continue strengthening the forestry cooperation between China and Myanmar, China is negotiating with Myanmar on the establishment of an overseas cooperation zone in the local area, hoping that cooperation agreements would be signed to set standards for bilateral processing trade of forest products.

ASEAN countries are the emerging markets with relatively mature conditions along the Belt and Road, with enormous market potential, and local consumers show great interest in wood culture; therefore, with a priority placed on ASEAN countries, Chinese enterprises concerned are more likely to be successful in not only trade of forest products but also production capacity cooperation and investment.

Most forest products in China are imported from the overseas markets like ASEAN countries, ranging from building materials to furniture and from bamboo & rattan to paper.

As a matter of fact, encouraging Chinese enterprises specializing in forest products does not mean that the development of China’s forestry can be ignored; instead, we should give high priority to technology research and development, as well as brand upgrading.