姜鴻 陳曦
摘要:碳關稅和碳稅的提高通過影響價格與成本,進而影響“南方”和“北方”國家產(chǎn)量與需求。一方面,北方國家提高碳關稅將使北方國家產(chǎn)量提高,南方國家產(chǎn)量下降,這也證明了碳關稅的貿(mào)易保護主義本質;另一方面,碳關稅對南北方國家社會福利的影響是不確定的,社會福利的變化還受其他變量的影響。因此,南方國家對內(nèi)應降低乃至取消碳稅,推動技術進步,降低碳排放強度,對外應積極與北方國家舉行外交磋商,堅決要求北方國家取消或降低碳關稅。
關鍵詞:碳關稅;碳稅;局部均衡;社會福利
中圖分類號:F7527 文獻標識碼:A
收稿日期:2013-10-24
作者簡介:姜鴻(1970-),男,湖北黃梅人,常州大學經(jīng)濟管理學院教授,經(jīng)濟學博士,研究方向:對外貿(mào)易與低碳經(jīng)濟;陳曦(1989-),女,江西九江人,常州大學經(jīng)濟管理學院研究生,研究方向:企業(yè)跨國經(jīng)營管理。
基金項目:江蘇省高校“青藍工程”資助項目;江蘇省教育廳高校哲學社會科學基金項目“江蘇發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟的外貿(mào)倒逼機制研究”,項目編號:2011SJB790003;常州大學校基金項目“中國低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究”,項目編號:ZMF10020081。
一、引言及文獻綜述
碳關稅是發(fā)達國家對來自于未限制溫室氣體排放國家的高耗能產(chǎn)品,依據(jù)其碳含量所征收的二氧化碳排放特別關稅,主要目的是保護發(fā)達國家高耗能產(chǎn)業(yè)的國際競爭力,并防止發(fā)生碳泄漏。發(fā)達國家認為,其單邊碳減排行動將導致碳泄漏和產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭力下降,因此應該征收碳關稅以保持市場公平競爭。2009年6月,美國眾議院通過《美國清潔能源安全法案》,從2020年起開始征收碳關稅。2012年,法國在歐盟再次提出征收碳關稅計劃。碳稅是針對向大氣排放二氧化碳的企業(yè)征收的一種環(huán)境稅。2008年11月19日,歐盟通過法案決定將國際航空納入歐盟碳排放交易體系,并于2012年1月1日起征收碳稅。同時,歐盟在2012年6月份進一步征收航海碳稅。
現(xiàn)有碳關稅方面的文獻主要研究碳關稅對產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭力、碳泄漏和社會福利的影響,結論并不一致。部分文獻支持征收碳關稅,認為碳關稅對征收國有利。Gros(2009)構建了一個簡單的局部均衡兩國模型,計算進口國征收碳關稅和碳稅對全球福利的影響,結果表明如果國外沒有征收足夠的碳稅,碳關稅就能增加全球福利。Veenendaal & Manders(2008)采用一般均衡分析方法,定量分析多種政策情景對被歐盟碳排放交易體系覆蓋的能源密集型部門的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)當歐盟沒有征收碳關稅時,歐盟碳稅對這些部門的生產(chǎn)和就業(yè)產(chǎn)生負面影響,而征收碳關稅則能夠減少這些部門國際競爭力的喪失。Majocchi & Missaglia(2002)的一般均衡模型表明,碳關稅能為歐盟成員國創(chuàng)造一個較好的競爭環(huán)境,減少內(nèi)部失業(yè)。Demailly & Quirion(2005)的研究結果認為,碳關稅能夠有效阻止水泥產(chǎn)業(yè)碳泄露,Mathiesen & Maestad(2002)對鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)得出相似的結論。
但也有部分文獻反對征收碳關稅,認為碳關稅對征收國乃至全球不利。Lockwood & Whalley(2008)認為碳關稅扭曲了商品間的相對價格,相對于無國內(nèi)碳稅、無碳關稅情景,同時征收國內(nèi)碳稅和碳關稅將導致國內(nèi)福利損失。Burniaux等(2010)采用全球遞歸動態(tài)CGE模型,評估碳關稅對碳泄漏、競爭力和福利的影響,結論是碳關稅能夠減少像歐盟這樣的小型碳減排國家聯(lián)盟的碳泄漏,但是碳關稅的福利影響較小,僅對全球福利產(chǎn)生微小的負面影響;此外,碳關稅不一定能夠阻止國內(nèi)能源密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出下降。朱永彬、王錚(2010)模擬結果表明,碳關稅將對中國能源、鋼鐵冶煉以及水泥石灰石膏、耐火材料等非金屬礦物制造業(yè)部門的出口產(chǎn)生很大的負面影響,使得中國GDP、國內(nèi)供給、進出口總量、社會投資、勞動就業(yè)以及企業(yè)與居民收入都不同程度地下降。鮑勤等(2010)采用CGE模型測算了美國征收碳關稅對中國對外貿(mào)易、經(jīng)濟、環(huán)境等方面的影響,結果表明,碳關稅將對中國對外貿(mào)易、整個經(jīng)濟造成極大的負面影響,但其環(huán)境改善的效果相對有限。
綜合來看,現(xiàn)有文獻主要采用CGE模型,定量模擬碳關稅的經(jīng)濟效應,較少從理論上探討進口國與出口國同時征收國內(nèi)碳稅的情況下,碳關稅與碳稅對進出口國家經(jīng)濟的影響。本文在Gros(2009)方法的基礎上,經(jīng)過進一步改進與發(fā)展,從理論上比較分析碳關稅和碳稅分別對南北方國家價格、產(chǎn)出、需求、社會福利的影響。
四、主要結論與政策建議
本文從理論上分析了碳關稅和碳稅分別對南北方國家市場價格、產(chǎn)出、需求、社會福利的影響(見表1和表2)。從表1可以清楚地看出碳關稅的貿(mào)易保護主義本質。北方國家提高國內(nèi)碳稅,將導致部分北方國家企業(yè)把剩余產(chǎn)能轉移至南方國家,從而產(chǎn)生碳泄露。碳關稅對南北方國家社會福利的影響是不確定的,社會福利的變化還受其他變量的影響。
根據(jù)以上主要結論,我們建議:
1.南方國家的主要任務是發(fā)展,保持適度的經(jīng)濟增長速度是必要的。從表1第5列可以看出,為了促進南方國家經(jīng)濟增長,南方國家對內(nèi)應降低乃至取消碳稅,對外應堅決要求北方國家取消或降低碳關稅,支持北方國家對內(nèi)征收碳稅。
2.改進產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)工藝、推動技術進步、降低碳排放強度,是南方國家提高產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭力,應對北方國家碳關稅的必由之路。北方國家應該加強對南方國家低碳生產(chǎn)技術的轉讓力度,這樣,南方國家可以縮小與北方國家碳排放強度的差距,北方國家從中可以獲得技術轉讓收入,雙方社會福利均可得到改善。
3.南方國家應積極與北方國家舉行外交磋商,說服北方國家對南方國家產(chǎn)品取消或降低征收碳關稅。因為,碳關稅對南北方國家社會福利的正負影響并不確定,即使征收碳關稅對北方國家社會福利的影響為正,但當碳關稅達到一定水平以后,再提高碳關稅也會降低北方國家社會福利。
參考文獻:
[1] 朱永彬,王錚.碳關稅對我國經(jīng)濟影響評價[J].中國軟科學,2010(12).
[2] 鮑勤,湯鈴,楊列勛.美國征收碳關稅對中國的影響:基于可計算一般均衡模型的分析[J].管理評論,2010(6).
[3] Gros, D. Global Welfare Implications of Carbon Border Taxes [Z]. CESifo Working Paper No. 2790, 2009.
[4] Veenendaal, P. and T. Manders. Border Tax Adjustment and the EU-ETS, a Quantitative Assessment[Z].CPB Document No. 171, 2008.
[5] Majocchi, A. and M. Missaglia. Environmental Taxes and Border Tax Adjustment[Z].SIEP Working Paper No. 127, 2002.
[6] Demailly, D. and P. Quirion. Leakage from Climate Policies and Border-tax Adjustment: Lessons from a Geographic Model of the Cement Industry[R].CESifo Venice Summer Institute, 2005.
[7] Lockwood, B. and J. Whalley. Carbon Motivated Border Tax Adjustments: Old Wine in Green Bottles? [Z].NBER Working Paper No. 14025, 2008.
[8] Burniaux, J., J. Chateau and R. Duval. Is there a Case for Carbon-Based Border Tax Adjustment: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis[Z].OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 794, 2010.
Abstract:A raise of carbon tariff and carbon tax affects the output and demand of northern and southern countries through influencing price and cost. On the one hand, an improvement of carbon tariff in northern country will make the northern country increase its output,and make the southern country drop its output, which also proves the protectionism nature of carbon tariff. On the other hand, the effect of carbon tariff on the social welfare of northern and southern countries is uncertain, due to the influence of other variables. Therefore,the southern country should reduce or even cancel internal carbon tax, promote technological progress, reduce the carbon emission intensity, hold diplomatic consultation actively with northern country and insist on northern country to cancel or reduce carbon tariff.
Key words: carbon tariff; carbon tax; partial equilibrium; social welfare
(責任編輯:張曦)
參考文獻:
[1] 朱永彬,王錚.碳關稅對我國經(jīng)濟影響評價[J].中國軟科學,2010(12).
[2] 鮑勤,湯鈴,楊列勛.美國征收碳關稅對中國的影響:基于可計算一般均衡模型的分析[J].管理評論,2010(6).
[3] Gros, D. Global Welfare Implications of Carbon Border Taxes [Z]. CESifo Working Paper No. 2790, 2009.
[4] Veenendaal, P. and T. Manders. Border Tax Adjustment and the EU-ETS, a Quantitative Assessment[Z].CPB Document No. 171, 2008.
[5] Majocchi, A. and M. Missaglia. Environmental Taxes and Border Tax Adjustment[Z].SIEP Working Paper No. 127, 2002.
[6] Demailly, D. and P. Quirion. Leakage from Climate Policies and Border-tax Adjustment: Lessons from a Geographic Model of the Cement Industry[R].CESifo Venice Summer Institute, 2005.
[7] Lockwood, B. and J. Whalley. Carbon Motivated Border Tax Adjustments: Old Wine in Green Bottles? [Z].NBER Working Paper No. 14025, 2008.
[8] Burniaux, J., J. Chateau and R. Duval. Is there a Case for Carbon-Based Border Tax Adjustment: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis[Z].OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 794, 2010.
Abstract:A raise of carbon tariff and carbon tax affects the output and demand of northern and southern countries through influencing price and cost. On the one hand, an improvement of carbon tariff in northern country will make the northern country increase its output,and make the southern country drop its output, which also proves the protectionism nature of carbon tariff. On the other hand, the effect of carbon tariff on the social welfare of northern and southern countries is uncertain, due to the influence of other variables. Therefore,the southern country should reduce or even cancel internal carbon tax, promote technological progress, reduce the carbon emission intensity, hold diplomatic consultation actively with northern country and insist on northern country to cancel or reduce carbon tariff.
Key words: carbon tariff; carbon tax; partial equilibrium; social welfare
(責任編輯:張曦)
參考文獻:
[1] 朱永彬,王錚.碳關稅對我國經(jīng)濟影響評價[J].中國軟科學,2010(12).
[2] 鮑勤,湯鈴,楊列勛.美國征收碳關稅對中國的影響:基于可計算一般均衡模型的分析[J].管理評論,2010(6).
[3] Gros, D. Global Welfare Implications of Carbon Border Taxes [Z]. CESifo Working Paper No. 2790, 2009.
[4] Veenendaal, P. and T. Manders. Border Tax Adjustment and the EU-ETS, a Quantitative Assessment[Z].CPB Document No. 171, 2008.
[5] Majocchi, A. and M. Missaglia. Environmental Taxes and Border Tax Adjustment[Z].SIEP Working Paper No. 127, 2002.
[6] Demailly, D. and P. Quirion. Leakage from Climate Policies and Border-tax Adjustment: Lessons from a Geographic Model of the Cement Industry[R].CESifo Venice Summer Institute, 2005.
[7] Lockwood, B. and J. Whalley. Carbon Motivated Border Tax Adjustments: Old Wine in Green Bottles? [Z].NBER Working Paper No. 14025, 2008.
[8] Burniaux, J., J. Chateau and R. Duval. Is there a Case for Carbon-Based Border Tax Adjustment: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis[Z].OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 794, 2010.
Abstract:A raise of carbon tariff and carbon tax affects the output and demand of northern and southern countries through influencing price and cost. On the one hand, an improvement of carbon tariff in northern country will make the northern country increase its output,and make the southern country drop its output, which also proves the protectionism nature of carbon tariff. On the other hand, the effect of carbon tariff on the social welfare of northern and southern countries is uncertain, due to the influence of other variables. Therefore,the southern country should reduce or even cancel internal carbon tax, promote technological progress, reduce the carbon emission intensity, hold diplomatic consultation actively with northern country and insist on northern country to cancel or reduce carbon tariff.
Key words: carbon tariff; carbon tax; partial equilibrium; social welfare
(責任編輯:張曦)