鐘滋慶 鄭明貴 鐘曉亮
[摘 要] 基于贛州對(duì)接粵港澳大灣區(qū)金融資源背景下,以2000-2018年贛州市社會(huì)發(fā)展數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,選取GDP、固定資產(chǎn)投資額、戶籍人口總數(shù)為主要驅(qū)動(dòng)變量,設(shè)立2020-2030年社會(huì)發(fā)展情景,采用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型對(duì)贛州未來(lái)金融規(guī)模進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果表明:贛州市2020-2030年金融規(guī)模呈逐漸擴(kuò)大趨勢(shì),對(duì)接粵港澳大灣區(qū)金融資源能降低當(dāng)前贛州市金融機(jī)構(gòu)存貸比,緩解贛州市金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款規(guī)模過(guò)大問(wèn)題。最后,從贛州對(duì)接大灣區(qū)金融資源前期、中期、后期三方面提出政策建議。
[關(guān)鍵詞] 贛州市;區(qū)域金融;情景預(yù)測(cè);BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò);粵港澳大灣區(qū)
[中圖分類號(hào)] F832 [文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼] A [文章編號(hào)] 1009-6043(2020)03-0016-04
Abstract: Based on the background of Ganzhou's connection with the financial resources of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, taking the social development data of Ganzhou from 2000 to 2018 as the sample, taking the GDP, fixed asset investment and the total number of registered population as the main driving variables, the social development scenario of 2020-2030 is established, and the future financial scale of Ganzhou is predicted by BP neural network model. The prediction results show that the financial scale of Ganzhou is gradually expanding from 2020 to 2030. Docking with the financial resources of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area can reduce the current deposit loan ratio of Ganzhou financial institutions and alleviate the problem of excessive loan scale of Ganzhou financial institutions. Finally, the paper puts forward policy suggestions from three aspects in terms of the early stage, the middle stage and the later stage.
Key words: Ganzhou, regional finance, scenario prediction, BP neural network, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
一、引言
2019年2月18日國(guó)務(wù)院印發(fā)了《粵港澳大灣區(qū)發(fā)展規(guī)劃綱要》,正式啟動(dòng)了粵港澳大灣區(qū)項(xiàng)目?;浉郯拇鬄硡^(qū)項(xiàng)目是習(xí)近平總書記親自謀劃、親自部署、親自推動(dòng)的國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略,而產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移是其核心內(nèi)容之一。江西是粵港澳大灣區(qū)相鄰的省區(qū),是粵港澳大灣區(qū)的延伸腹地和走向東盟的重要門戶。而贛州作為江西的南大門,東與閩東南三角洲對(duì)接,南與珠江三角洲緊鄰,東北與長(zhǎng)江三角洲相望,是我國(guó)沿海的腹地和內(nèi)陸的前沿,也是長(zhǎng)江經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)與華南經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)連接的紐帶,對(duì)接融入粵港澳大灣區(qū)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)、承接大灣區(qū)項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移,贛州有優(yōu)勢(shì),更有先機(jī)。
經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展需要金融先行。目前贛州已有多家銀行業(yè)金融機(jī)構(gòu)成立“對(duì)接粵港澳大灣區(qū)”領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組,積極參與對(duì)接粵港澳大灣區(qū)金融資源,為贛州對(duì)接大灣區(qū)項(xiàng)目提供金融支持。不僅如此,2019年江西省政府工作報(bào)告再次明確,贛州要全力打造對(duì)接大灣區(qū)建設(shè)的橋頭堡和產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移承接示范地。抓住這一發(fā)展機(jī)遇,做好金融資源對(duì)接,實(shí)現(xiàn)大灣區(qū)項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移與金融資源配置協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,對(duì)贛州經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展來(lái)說(shuō)意義重大。
二、文獻(xiàn)綜述
國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的理論及實(shí)證研究,長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)都存在爭(zhēng)議,歸納起來(lái)主要包括以下三個(gè)觀點(diǎn):
(一)金融發(fā)展促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)
在20世紀(jì)初期,Schumpeter[1]在《經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展理論》一文中指出銀行可以通過(guò)向企業(yè)家提供融資服務(wù)來(lái)滿足他們實(shí)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)的需求,進(jìn)而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。Goldsmith[2]研究表明金融發(fā)展能加速經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。McKinnon[3]和Shaw[4]對(duì)金融發(fā)展促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的論述。King[5]檢驗(yàn)了金融發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的積極作用。周立[6]發(fā)現(xiàn)促進(jìn)地區(qū)金融發(fā)展可以加快地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的增長(zhǎng)。
(二)金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)為相互促進(jìn)關(guān)系
Patrick[7]研究表明金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在相互促進(jìn)的關(guān)系;Akerlof[8]運(yùn)用格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)法,得出金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)互為因果關(guān)系。楊智峰[9],賴娟[10],周天蕓等[11]從地區(qū)視角出發(fā),發(fā)現(xiàn)地區(qū)金融發(fā)展與地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在互相促進(jìn)的關(guān)系。
(三)金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系不顯著
Lucas[12]認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過(guò)程中金融市場(chǎng)只是一種中介,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起到的作用有限;Menkhoff[13]認(rèn)為長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,金融規(guī)模發(fā)展過(guò)快可能會(huì)給經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)反向作用。國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者王濤[14]、郭四代[15]研究發(fā)現(xiàn)區(qū)域金融發(fā)展對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的直接影響并不顯著,主要是通過(guò)緩解產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡造成的結(jié)構(gòu)負(fù)擔(dān)而得以體現(xiàn);此外,楊嵩[16]研究發(fā)現(xiàn)金融發(fā)展水平與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在滯后的倒U型關(guān)系。