3 Japan and the U.S.-China Strategic Competition: Trade War, Technology War, and the Indo-Pacific Strategyby Gui Yongtao

【Abstract】As the U.S.-China strategic competition intensifies, Tokyo seeks to strike a balance between its relations with Washington and Beijing, and between its economic and security interests. In responding to the trade war, Japan enjoys considerable autonomy as it has been able to accelerate economic integration with other trading partners while dealing with the United States in a roundabout way. With respect to the technology war, while Tokyo acts in concert with Washington, there are debates in Japan on whether to prioritize security or the economy. Japan is particularly worried about a U.S.-China “decoupling” that could slow down Chinese economic growth, break the global supply chain, thereby threatening the foundation of Japan's economic growth. Concerning the Indo-Pacific strategy, although Tokyo seems to be coordinating with Washington, it in fact wants to distance itself the U.S. policy and downplay geopolitical competition with Beijing. Japan hopes that its Indo-Pacific Vision will coexist peacefully with China's Belt and Road Initiative. The fundamental difference between the policies of Japan and the United States lies in their view on whether the relationship with China should be perceived as a zero-sum game. Notwithstanding its disagreements with China on some economic and security issues, Japan is unlikely to forsake the massive Chinese market, nor is it willing to engage in a military confrontation with China. Japan's China policy, therefore, combines competition and cooperation. The discord between Japan and the United States over their China policy might become a frequent fact of life. If the U.S.-China rivalry grows, Japan will face even harder choices.

【Key Words】U.S.-Japan-China relations, Japanese foreign policy, trade war, technology war, Indo-Pacific strategy

19 A New Era in China-Japan Economic Relations: Opportunities and Challengesby Zhang Jifeng

【Abstract】Both China and Japan have entered a new era. President Xi Jinping may pay a state visit to Japan this year which will usher in a new era in China-Japan relations. The multiple new eras will open broader prospects for China-Japan economic and trade cooperation. But at the same time, China-Japan relations also face new challenges arising from anti-globalization, protectionism, and the sudden COVID-19 pandemic. There are both opportunities and challenges in China-Japan economic relations. To deal with the complex situation, the best option for both countries is to strengthen economic and trade cooperation. We should recognize the long-term complexity of the strategic competition between China and the United States, always keep a clear mind, and try to turn “crisis” into “opportunity”. The mutual assistance between China and Japan in fighting COVID-19 has brought the two peoples closer, providing a more favorable environment for deepening trade and economic cooperation. There are a variety of issue areas in which China and Japan can cooperate, including trade, investment, finance, third-party markets, and regional economic integration, and the potential for cooperation is even greater in the digital economy, AI, the prevention and control of new epidemics, and responses to aging. China-Japan economic relations in the new era will be more stable and promising.

【Key Words】China-Japan relations, China-Japan economic and trade cooperation, the United States factor, fighting the epidemic, third-party market cooperation

35 China-Japan Relations within the Regional Institutional Framework: From Rivalry to Cooperation?by Ma Rongjiu

【Abstract】The growing number of multilateral institutions in Asia plays an important role in the interactions among regional countries. As important participants in the process of Asian institutionalization, the interaction between China and Japan within the institutional framework is indicative of the strength of both their bilateral relations in general, and their bilateral cooperation and competition in particular. Since the end of the cold war, China-Japan interactions have often been accompanied by bilateral competition in institutional power and discourse power. More importantly, however, the relevant regional institutions and mechanisms which provide a platform for fostering a sustained and stable cooperative relationship between China and Japan have proven capable of shaping the ongoing transformation of China-Japan relations in a positive direction. In essence, cooperation is endogenous while competition and balancing are exogenous in the China-Japan interaction within the regional institutional framework. To better understand the development of China-Japan relations, we must pay attention to the stabilizing or facilitating role of a series of regional institutions and mechanisms.

【Key Words】China-Japan relations, international institutions, cooperation, competition, discourse power

49 From“Europe First”to“America First”: The Shift of U.S. Strategic Focus and the Future of the Atlantic Allianceby Zhao Huaipu

【Abstract】The common perception of security threats and shared security interests are the foundation on which the Atlantic Alliance depends. As the United States is the alliance leader, the repositioning and shift of its global strategic focus is key to the stability of the alliance and the U.S.-Europe relationship. During the Cold War, the United States and Europe shared common threat perceptions and security interests. NATO, led by the United States, also pursued a “Europe-first” strategy, thereby ensuring the stability of the Atlantic Alliance and U.S.-Europe relations. After the end of the Cold War, especially since the start of the 21st century, the gradual shift in U.S. strategic focus from Europe to the Middle East, then to the Asia-Pacific region has exerted a strong impact on the Atlantic Alliance, whose original mission was to maintain European security. After taking office, Trump further reduced the U.S. global footprint and accelerated the eastward shift of the strategic focus with the main goal of containing China. This has resulted in increased divergence in U.S. and European security interests and greater difficulty in coordinating the two sides' China policies. The eastward shift of the U.S. strategic focus, which is in keeping with the “America First” notion, has centrifugal and weakening effects on the Atlantic Alliance, prompting it to become looser and even risk slipping into a loose transactional alliance. While the Atlantic Alliance may continue into the future, its long-term decline in the course of its gradual transformation will be inevitable due to internal problems and other constraints.

【Key Words】shift of U.S. strategic focus, NATO, the Atlantic Alliance, “America First”, U.S.-Europe relations

66“National Security Exceptions”in International Trade Rulesby Zhang Lijuan&Guo Ruonan

【Abstract】The “national security exceptions” in WTO multilateral trade rules give members discretion to take measures to protect their “essential security interests”. Such security exceptions in regional trade agreements cover even more issues in trade policy, and set higher standards for intellectual property protection and digital trade. Through trade legislation, the United States and the EU have established and strengthened their respective institutional arrangements related to “national security exceptions” in areas such as export control, industrial security and foreign investment reviews to maintain their strategic competitive advantage globally. With the intensification of trade competition and the transformation of the global economic order, there is a growing tendency to use “national security exceptions” to restrict trade and investment. Since there are no WTO rules that can effectively constrain such use, this trend runs the risk of transforming these exceptions into tools of trade protectionism. As non-traditional security issues are now seen as part of national security interests in the 21st century, the problem can only be addressed through joint international efforts to build an effective global governance system.

【Key Words】national security exceptions, WTO, regional trade agreements, trade rules, investment security review

80 The Trump Administration and the Liberal International Order: To Abandon or to Support?by Zhu Jian

【Abstract】While both realists and liberals agree that Trump is ruining the liberal international order, they differ with respect to the impact of such behavior. Realists think this will help the US to abandon its attempts to expand liberal democracy abroad while liberals fear that this will undermine the legitimacy of the US as the leader of the liberal world order. However, neither realists nor liberals are entirely correct in their assessments. Given the economic interests of domestic capital-intensive sectors and the geopolitical need to maintain its maritime hegemony, the US is unlikely to completely abandon the liberal international order. As a matter of fact, although Trump regularly complains about democracy promotion, free trade and maintaining US global hegemony and is trying to the costs in maintaining hegemony, the overall approach of his administration shows that the US is still a supporter of the liberal international order. Therefore, what will inevitably disappoint realists and liberals is that the US will neither give up efforts to shape its external environment, nor be firmly committed to international regimes and multilateralism.

【Key Words】America first, liberal international order, Liberalism, Realism, democracy promotion, open trade, global hegemony

100 China's Integrative Ideation and Mechanism Restructuring in Consular Protection: A Case of China's Libyan Evaluation Mission in 2011byZhang Dandan&Sun Degang

【Abstract】There is a structural contradiction between the need for orderly consular protection and the lack of order in the way Chinese enterprises and nationals go overseas. Adhering to the principle of “diplomacy for the people,” the Chinese government has promoted consular protection in general and made great efforts to improve overseas Chinese nationals' livelihood by taking into account both domestic and international interests and strengthening top-level design. The evacuation of overseas Chinese nationals has become an important part of consular work. The evacuation of Chinese nationals from Libya in 2011 demonstrates advantages of Chinese institutions which are capable of domestic and international coordination, and inter- and intra-departmental coordination. In 2020, this is of great significance to China's current anti-epidemic diplomacy and the evacuation of overseas Chinese nationals. In trying to institutionalize consular protection in the Middle East, it is advisable for China to improve various mechanisms involving early-warning, emergency response and after-care measures, participate in the security governance of the Middle East, and encourage the participation of non-government actors in consular protection. China should be able to leverage the full range of its diplomatic tools in the Middle East to build a super structure of China's consular protection.

【Key Words】people-oriented diplomacy, evacuation of overseas Chinese nationals from Libya, consular protection, security governance, China's Middle East diplomacy

119 U.S. Aid to the Pacific Island Countries: the Current State of Affairs and U.S. Policyby Wu Yan

【Abstract】As a powerful tool to achieve U.S. national strategic goals, foreign assistance has for a long time played a crucial role in advancing U.S. national interests and maintaining the U.S.-led international order. From 2009 to 2019, under the “Asia-Pacific Rebalance” and “Indo-Pacific” strategies, the Obama and Trump administrations have promoted the instrumentalization of foreign assistance by adjusting fund size, geographical distribution, assistance programs and responsible executive agencies. With the adjustments of U.S. Asia-Pacific policy, the strategic position and value of the Pacific Island countries (PICs) has increased significantly in U.S. foreign policy. U.S. foreign assistance to the PICs is not only an important tool to promote U.S. regional security interests and its foreign policy, but also a critical measure to compete with China in an important strategic node, as a way to balance the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). An analysis of the size, projects, characteristics and trends of U.S. aid to the PICs provides a fresh perspective on changes in U.S. Asia-Pacific policy, but also offers valuable insight that may help to enhance the B&R.

【Key Words】foreign assistance, the U.S., Pacific Island countries

136 Risk Factors Analysis of China-Indonesia Trade and Economic Cooperation: the Perspective of Central-local Relationsby Liang Sunyi&Li Yuanzheng

【Abstract】As an emerging economy in the 21st century, Indonesia's great economic potential has made the country an important fulcrum in the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R). Since President Joko came into power, Indonesia has made further progress with the introduction of the “Global Maritime Fulcrum” (GMF) strategy. Under the BRI framework, China and Indonesia have expanded trade and economic cooperation, including the project to build the Jakarta-Bandung high speed railway, and have already started to explore strategic coordination between the B&R and the GMF. However, Indonesia's unusual central-local relations pose many challenges to bilateral trade and economic cooperation. There are political hurdles arising from various forms of primordial loyalty and princeling politics, and there are also economic barriers that result from local autonomy and private land ownership. With the development of the BRI, China needs to deepen its understanding of Indonesia, especially its national conditions.

【Key Words】the “Belt and Road” Initiative, China, Indonesia, trade and economic cooperation, central-local relations, risk factors