Junyi Zhi

Abstract：this study employs time series analysis to build LSP model（language speaker prediction model）to simulate the distribution of various language speakers over time.Parameters are used such as country population and natural population growth rate，regional enrollment rate，immigration and emigration，national economy state，multinational enterprises，increased global tourism，cultural influence，linguistic complexity.Based on abundant statistics data，this study completes calculation for changes of the numbers of native speakers and total language speakers in the next 50 years.Besides，prediction of global population and human migration patterns for the next 50 years is also made.After considering the long term situation，we tend to believe that this result will not have much change.Last but not least，we summarize our analysis results and propose our recommendations for further transnational company expansion.

Key words：language distribution，migration patterns，language movement，transnational corporation expansion.

1.Introduction

As Norman Geschwind discovered in 1979，when we study human language，we are approaching what some might call the "human essence".[1] According to the statistics，the number of the current living languages is 6912.Under the irresistible trend of globalization，how to figure out the best solution to overcome the language problem becomes the key to success in the competence of multination companies.

2.Prediction and Analysis

2.1 Language distribution，To model the distribution of various language users over time，we design the formula shows as follow.Pi = Pi（1）（t）+ Pi（2）（t）

Where，Pi means total speaker number for language i，

Pi（1）（t）means native speaker number for language i，

Pi（2）（t）means foreign learner number for language i.

To get Pi（1）（t），we collect the population data of main areas where the top 13 language are spoken.To be more specific，we gain native Punjabi users number by 63% of Pakistans population plus 2.3% of Indias population，and 71% times Arab population equals local Arabic speakers.[2] For some countries having a high ratio of immigrants，we calculate the native speakers of these countries by population minus immigrant number.

To get Pi（2）（t），we divide the world into five areas，Asia and Oceania，Africa，North America，Latin America，and Europe.We use the following algorithm to get these numbers.

Finally，we get language distribution in the next 50 years.Hausa and Malay replaced Japanese and Russian to become the new top ten language under the standard of native speaker number，and French and Malay surpasses Punjabi and Bengali in the area of total language speakers.

2.2 Migration patterns，North America is the most popular choice for migrants，thus French and English as the common use language of this area become more and more attractive for foreign language learners.The largest migrant origin for north America is Latin America，thus Spanish as the official language for most of Latin America countries also starts a studying trend in north America.To consider in the long term，the ranks will hardly change.

2.3 Transnational business expansion.To employ our analysis into solving location strategy of transnational companies，we need more information，including but not limited to average total cost（ATC），marginal cost（MC），price（P），marginal revenue（MR），average revenue（AR）.If the revenue office get is less than its total cost，it should withdraw from the market according to the microeconomics knowledge.In other words，if total revenue divided by quantity（TR/Q）is less than total cost divided by quantity（TC/Q），then the office should stop running.（seen in figure 1 and figure 2）[3]

3.Conclusion

We predict changes of language speakers and simulate migration patterns for next 50 years.In business，to realize a more specific analysis，we need more information，including but not limited to average total cost，marginal cost，price，marginal revenue，average revenue.If the office revenue is less than its total cost，that office should be shut down to save company resources.

References

[1] Nation language，https：//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada

[2] Principles of Microeconomics（6th edition）N.Gregory Mankiw（Harvard University）

作者簡介

支君儀（1997.06 – 今），女，漢族，浙江杭州，大學本科生，研究方向：語言學與國際商務

（作者單位：西南財經大學經貿外語學院）