By+Bourree+Lam

Despite reports of trashed stores and disorderly crowds， Black Friday shopping excursions in 2016 are actually dwindling.1 Preliminary data from Thanksgiving weekend indicates that both net sales and shopper visits to brickand-mortar stores2 fell in 2016 and 2015， and that in-store sales fell by about $1 billion. As those with Black Friday fatigue move to shopping online from the comfort of their homes， theyre attracted not just by deals and promises of free shipping， but also by the increasingly common safety net3 of free returns.

But neither of these services is really free. Much has been written about how much “free” shipping actually costs retailers， and as the ability to return goods at no cost becomes an increasingly normal part of online shopping—particularly during the holidays—that service too is becoming more burdensome for merchants.

A survey by the National Retail Federation found that the return rate for all merchandise purchased around the holidays is two percent higher than the average rate during the rest of the year. Thats especially burdensome for online retailers whose holiday sales figures are climbing.

For online shopping， the return rate is estimated to be much higher in general， but particularly around the holidays. “The annual retail return rate is around 8 percent， but can reach up to 30 percent for e-commerce sales， especially in categories like apparel4，” Tobin Moore， the CEO of Optoro， a company that specializes in returns， said in an email.

Optoro handles returns for companies in the interest of reducing waste. The process of collecting， assessing， and reshelving returned goods is often so costly for companies that items are instead thrown out or sold to stores that liquidate5 the products. Optoro collects these returned products， and then its employees repackage and repair the products to either be sent back to retailers， or—for products the company no longer wants—to be resold to wholesalers6 or discount websites.

Optoro is one of a handful of companies that try to reduce the cost and complexity of returns. The main challenge for these companies is helping retailers fix what they see as a broken system， with bad data， overly complex logistics， a messy network of resellers， and fear that frustrated customers wont send products back due to bad return experiences in the past.

According to Vicky Brock， the CEO of Clear Returns， a U.K.-based company specializing in returns technology， many retailers are only now starting to think about optimizing returns in the logistical sense. Her company， though， is focused on using artificial intelligence to predict and prevent returns in the first place. “The causes of returns are a complex interplay7 of product， customer， and marketing， and it needs big data and a sharp analytical focus for retailers to understand and act on the information that will allow them to reduce the costly cycle of returns，” explains Brock. Further， Brock says that most solutions to retailersproblems have been technological， geared toward8 simplifying the supply chain， providing more detailed information about returns， and liquidating returned goods.

“Returns are a costly business， but a crucial one， if retailers want to earn and hold onto a loyal， motivated shopping base. It will continue to grow in correlation with9 the rise in online consumer spending，” says Ryan Kelly， the senior vice president of sales， strategy， and communications at Genco. That means that the returns business is no longer an afterthought10 for retailers， because a large majority of customers tend to come back to stores theyve had good return experiences with.

The gap all of these companies are trying to fill is the one between high customer expectations and costly execution. On the retailers side， the end of Black Friday madness is just the beginning of a long， expensive period of return madness， a norm they themselves created and now must maintain in order to keep customers happy.

盡管有關(guān)商場一片狼藉、人群混亂不堪的報道仍然屢見不鮮，2016年“黑色星期五”大采購事實上正在降溫。感恩節(jié)周末的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示凈銷售額和實體店光顧率在2016和2015年都有所下滑，而店內(nèi)銷售額下降約10億美元。隨著顧客疲于黑色星期五搶購，他們更愿意待在舒適的家里進行網(wǎng)購，吸引他們的不只有特價和免費送貨的承諾，還有越來越普遍的免費退貨保障。

然而這些服務并非真正免費：已有不少文章闡述免費送貨實際會讓零售商消耗多少成本，而隨著能夠免費退貨愈發(fā)成為網(wǎng)購的常態(tài)（節(jié)假日尤其如此），這一服務也讓商家壓力倍增。

美國零售聯(lián)合會開展的一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，節(jié)假日期間所有商品退貨率要比全年其他時間的平均退貨率高2%。這對于節(jié)假日銷售額飆升的網(wǎng)上零售商而言負擔尤為沉重。

一般而言，網(wǎng)購的退貨率要更高，在節(jié)假日期間尤為突出?！澳甓攘闶弁素浡蚀蠹s在8%左右，但電子商務銷售的退貨率高達30%，特別是服裝類的商品?！币患覍ｉT處理退貨的公司Optoro的首席執(zhí)行官托賓·穆爾在一封郵件中說道。

Optoro給其他公司處理退貨是為了減少浪費。將退貨商品集中、評估、重新擺上貨架對于企業(yè)而言通常成本太高，因此企業(yè)要么將這些商品丟棄，要么轉(zhuǎn)售給商店清倉處理。Optoro集中這些退貨商品，由員工將其重新包裝并且進行修補，然后返還給零售商，而那些企業(yè)不想要的商品則被轉(zhuǎn)售給批發(fā)商或者折扣網(wǎng)站。

Optoro是試圖降低退貨成本與繁瑣程度的少數(shù)幾家公司之一。這些公司面臨的主要挑戰(zhàn)是幫助零售商修復他們眼中那個已經(jīng)損壞的系統(tǒng)：不良數(shù)據(jù)、過于復雜的物流、混亂的分銷商網(wǎng)絡，以及害怕失望的顧客由于過去退貨體驗糟糕而不愿將商品退回。

Clear Returns是一家位于英國的專門研發(fā)退貨技術(shù)的公司。該公司首席執(zhí)行官維基·布洛克認為，許多零售商現(xiàn)在才開始思考從物流的角度優(yōu)化退貨服務，而她的公司則致力于利用人工智能，從一開始預測和防止退貨的發(fā)生?！巴素浭怯缮唐?、顧客與市場營銷之間的復雜交互而產(chǎn)生的，倘若零售商想了解能讓他們減少昂貴退貨流程的信息，并據(jù)此做出行動，必須要有大數(shù)據(jù)和敏銳的分析焦點才行?！辈悸蹇私忉尩馈４送?，布洛克表示，大部分針對零售商的問題所提出的解決方案都是技術(shù)性的，旨在簡化供應鏈、提供更詳細的退貨信息以及處理退貨商品。

“如果零售商想要贏得并守住忠誠、主動的顧客群體，那么退貨是成本高昂但至關(guān)重要的一環(huán)。退貨將繼續(xù)隨著網(wǎng)購的興起一同增長?！盙enco公司銷售、戰(zhàn)略與溝通高級副總裁萊恩·凱利說道。這意味著零售商開始提前考慮退貨服務，因為絕大多數(shù)顧客會再次光顧退貨體驗良好的商家。

所有這些公司努力彌合的是顧客的高期望與高額執(zhí)行成本之間的鴻溝。從零售商的角度來說，瘋狂黑色星期五的結(jié)束僅僅是漫長且昂貴的退貨狂潮的開始。退貨成為一種常態(tài)是由他們自己一手造成的，而如今必須將其保持下去讓顧客滿意。

1. excursion： 短途出行；dwindle：減少，縮小。

2. brick-and-mortar store： 實體店。

3. safety net： 安全保障。

4. apparel： 衣服，服裝。

5. liquidate： 清算，變賣。

6. wholesaler： 批發(fā)商。

7. interplay： 相互作用。

8. gear toward： 面向。

9. in correlation with： 與……相關(guān)。

10. afterthought： 事后的考慮或想法。