肖天貴

摘 要：西南地區(qū)是我國(guó)西部山區(qū)大型滑坡災(zāi)害的主要發(fā)生地，因此西南地區(qū)的氣象資料所映射出的信息對(duì)大型滑坡致災(zāi)因子的識(shí)別和預(yù)報(bào)預(yù)警方法的研究具有非常重要的意義。由于獲取的大量原始?xì)庀筚Y料的存儲(chǔ)格式、觀測(cè)時(shí)次疏密、分辨率等均存在差異，因而造成應(yīng)用過(guò)程中的困難和局限，往往需要對(duì)實(shí)際觀測(cè)的多源資料進(jìn)行測(cè)試和預(yù)處理。（1）通過(guò)四川、重慶、云南和貴州4省市逐日常規(guī)氣象觀測(cè)資料的統(tǒng)計(jì)加工處理，獲得了西南地區(qū)各時(shí)間尺度的降水趨勢(shì)、地理分布以及各級(jí)別降水量的氣候概率值。（2）由于西南地區(qū)地形復(fù)雜，局地小尺度的氣象要素特征在常規(guī)氣象觀測(cè)資料中可能會(huì)被平滑或顯示不明顯，因此利用觀測(cè)網(wǎng)格更為細(xì)致的逐小時(shí)區(qū)域自動(dòng)站的資料就非常必要，利用收集的西南地區(qū)2 469個(gè)區(qū)域自動(dòng)站資料分析了局地小尺度的氣象要素分布及變化特點(diǎn)。（3）運(yùn)用收集到的風(fēng)云二號(hào)（FY2）衛(wèi)星云圖資料和反演的降水估計(jì)產(chǎn)品，進(jìn)一步分析了西部地區(qū)尤其是西藏西北部資料空白區(qū)域的降水分布；衛(wèi)星資料反演降水產(chǎn)品與實(shí)況降水對(duì)比相似率在60%以上，精度達(dá)到40%左右。（4）通過(guò)四川涼山州對(duì)流性降水案例的雷達(dá)圖像資料的加工處理，分析了西南地區(qū)雷達(dá)回波資料在強(qiáng)降水天氣及滑坡和泥石流災(zāi)害發(fā)生時(shí)的環(huán)境條件和臨近預(yù)報(bào)預(yù)警的可行性。（5）利用發(fā)生在四川盆地邊緣山地的兩次降水過(guò)程進(jìn)行WRF數(shù)值模式的敏感性試驗(yàn)和環(huán)流特征分析及動(dòng)力特征等分析。模擬再現(xiàn)了降水的雨帶走向、形狀特征、雨區(qū)位置、暴雨中心位置以及中尺度輻合線、中尺度低渦等中尺度系統(tǒng)活動(dòng)過(guò)程，表明WRF模式的敏感性和應(yīng)用性。

關(guān)鍵詞：西南地區(qū) 降水量 降水反演 短臨預(yù)報(bào) 數(shù)值模擬

Abstract： Heavy landslides mainly take place in southwest regions in western mountains of China. Therefore，meteorological data in southwest regions can map out the messages to identity factors or forecasting and warning of heavy landslides. The difference in the format of meteorological data， the density of the observation time and resolution causing difficulties and limitations in the process of application，we need to do some test and pretreatment of the multi-source data. （1）Counting and processing the daily routine meteorological data of Sichuan， Chongqing， Yunnan and Guizhou to get the trend of precipitation in each time scale， geographical distribution and the climate of precipitation probability value at all levels. （2） Due to the complexity of terrain in southwest China， so we need to make use of the hourly data in more detailed zone automatic station to compensate for the smooth and unconspicuous of routine data； Using the collected 2469 automatic station data in southwest to analysis the meteorological elements distribution and changes of small scale system. （3）By using the cloud pictures from FY2 satellite， the estimation products that inversion of precipitation， and the raw meteorological data received from radio satellite， try to filled in the blank space data of the regional where the automatic weather station is unrealized； compared the inversion of precipitation with actual precipitation， the similar rate over 60% and the accuracy is about 40%. （4）An analysis of radar image about a convectional precipitation in liangshan was did. Through the processing and handling the radar echo of heavy rain， analysis the environmental conditions of the landslide and debris flow disasters and the feasibility of geological disaster forecast warning. （5）Select two precipitation process occurs on the edge of the Sichuan basin mountain to proceed the numerical model WRF sensitivity test， and do the circulation characteristics analysis and the analysis of dynamic characteristics. The numerical model successfully reproduces the stretching direction of the precipitation， shape characteristics， precipitation area and the location of rainstorm center， and the mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale low vortex. It shows the sensitivity and applicability of WRF.

Key Words： Southwest Area； Precipitation； Precipitation inversion； The short forecast； Numerical Simulation

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