王永寧（遼寧省防汛抗旱指揮部辦公室，遼寧 沈陽 110003）

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遼寧洪澇災情統(tǒng)計分析

王永寧
（遼寧省防汛抗旱指揮部辦公室，遼寧 沈陽 110003）

［摘 要］根據近年來遼寧省區(qū)域內洪澇災害頻繁發(fā)生的實際情況，有針對性地指出了遼寧省當前洪澇災情統(tǒng)計工作中存在的重點問題；同時，結合遼寧省防汛工作的主要特點，提出了進一步做好洪澇災情統(tǒng)計工作的幾點措施和建議。

［關鍵詞］洪澇災情；統(tǒng)計；遼寧

洪澇災情統(tǒng)計是一項專業(yè)性、科學性、連續(xù)性、時效性較強的工作，是防汛應急管理、指揮決策、災后恢復重建等的重要基礎性工作，是研究制定洪澇災害應對措施、統(tǒng)計分析洪澇災害發(fā)生規(guī)律和社會經濟建設中開展防災減災工作不可或缺的基礎性資料，是各級防汛指揮者準確、及時了解掌握災情信息，實行科學指揮決策、指導搶險救災的重要依據。洪澇災害信息的及時準確與否，直接關系到各級防汛搶險工作的有效實施，關系到各級防災減災指揮機構的高效運作和正確指揮，甚至關系到整個防汛工作的成敗。

1　洪澇災情統(tǒng)計的作用

遼寧省位于中國東北地區(qū)的南部，是中國東北經濟區(qū)和環(huán)渤海經濟區(qū)的重要結合部，是東北地區(qū)通往關內的交通要道，也是東北地區(qū)和內蒙古通向世界、連接歐亞大陸橋的重要門戶和前沿地帶。遼寧省屬于溫帶大陸性季風氣候區(qū)，中部為平原地區(qū)，東西部為山地丘陵地區(qū)。陸地面積14.59萬km2（山地面積8.72萬km2，平地面積4.87 萬km2，水域面積1萬km2），海域面積15.02萬km2（渤海部分7.83萬km2，北黃海7.19萬km2）。海岸線東起鴨綠江口，西至山海關老龍頭，大陸海岸線全長2178 km，占中國大陸海岸線總長的12%。

洪澇災害是威脅人民生命財產安全的主要自然災害之一。獨特的自然地理條件和不斷變化的氣候環(huán)境，決定了遼寧省是一個洪澇災害頻繁發(fā)生的省份；其中，東部地區(qū)和西部地區(qū)極易發(fā)生山洪泥石流災害，中部地區(qū)極易發(fā)生內澇事件，沿海地區(qū)容易受臺風影響發(fā)生洪澇災害。近年來，隨著全球氣候變暖和環(huán)境變化，遼寧省極端性天氣事件頻次加劇，洪澇災害呈現了多發(fā)、突發(fā)的態(tài)勢。據統(tǒng)計，2010年以來遼寧省區(qū)域內共發(fā)生各類洪澇災害24次，其中2010年的6次強降雨、2012年的“8.04”洪水、2013年的“8.16”洪水等洪澇災害，均給遼寧省部分地區(qū)造成了不同程度的經濟損失。災害發(fā)生后，在充分利用已經建成的洪澇災情統(tǒng)計報送系統(tǒng)平臺的基礎上，通過各級洪澇災害統(tǒng)計人員的積極努力，對每一次洪澇災害造成的險情、災情進行了及時統(tǒng)計，對人口受災、房屋倒塌、農作物損失、基礎設施損毀等重要災情信息進行了充分分析核實并開展了逐級報送工作，在第一時間為各級防汛搶險和指揮決策提供了第一手資料，也為及時降低受災地區(qū)洪澇災害損失提供了基礎信息，為區(qū)域經濟社會持續(xù)發(fā)展奠定了堅實基礎。

2　存在的問題

多年來，遼寧省洪澇災情統(tǒng)計工作取得了一定的成績，圓滿完成了2010年6次強降雨過程、2012年的“8.04”大洪水、2013年的“8.16”大洪水等重大洪澇災情統(tǒng)計報送工作，積累了許多經驗。但是，也存在一些不容忽視的突出問題，主要表現在：

一是基層報災時效性差。近年來新聞媒體對防汛工作宣傳力度加大，信息傳播節(jié)奏加快，給防汛信息報送帶來新的壓力。報災不及時是當前洪澇災情報送工作中存在的主要問題，一些地區(qū)對突發(fā)洪澇災情不敏感，應急反應能力不強，信息報送不及時，造成災情信息上報遲滯。

二是災情數據存在出入。洪澇災情統(tǒng)計表包含項目多，既包括水利設施的損失，還包括受災范圍、人口、倒塌房屋及農林牧漁業(yè)、工業(yè)、交通運輸業(yè)等損失。災情統(tǒng)計數據涉及部門多，且災害發(fā)生后，各部門關注的重點不同，造成不同部門掌握的同一類別數據常存在一些差異。

三是虛報瞞報時有發(fā)生。統(tǒng)計數據是洪澇災害的客觀記錄，一些地區(qū)對洪澇災情統(tǒng)計的嚴肅性缺乏正確認識，洪澇災情統(tǒng)計中虛報瞞報的情況時有發(fā)生，出現“小災報大，大災報小”的情況。

四是基層統(tǒng)計力量薄弱。個別市縣缺乏專職災情統(tǒng)計人員，除災情統(tǒng)計工作外，統(tǒng)計人員仍兼顧其他工作；另外，洪澇災情統(tǒng)計專業(yè)性較強，個別統(tǒng)計人員對洪澇災情統(tǒng)計制度掌握不夠透徹，對洪澇災情的統(tǒng)計范圍、統(tǒng)計內容、報送制度、工作方式理解不深，在災情統(tǒng)計質量等方面還存在不足。

3　措施和建議

針對當前遼寧洪澇災害統(tǒng)計存在的突出問題，結合遼寧防汛工作的實際情況，提出做好遼寧洪澇災害統(tǒng)計工作的幾點措施和建議如下：

一是嚴格落實災情統(tǒng)計報表制度。各級防汛指揮機構應認真貫徹洪澇災情統(tǒng)計制度，切實堅持做好“四報”，①實時報，及時在災情發(fā)生后第一時間上報災情報表；②過程報，及時在每次災情過程結束后上報經過核實的災情報表；③月報，及時上報當月發(fā)生災害過程的累計報表；④年報，及時上報全年發(fā)生災害過程的累計報表。

二是及時準確報送重大險情災情信息。各級防汛指揮機構應認真執(zhí)行國家防總防汛突發(fā)險情災情報告管理相關規(guī)定，對水庫、江河堤防垮壩、決口或失事、重大山洪泥石流，或者出現垮壩決口前兆的危險狀況、重大人員傷亡等重大險情信息，要在迅速報告本級黨委、政府的同時，必須在第一時間把簡要情況上報上級防汛指揮機構，同時繼續(xù)收集整理補充新情況，及時做好續(xù)報工作。

三是嚴肅災情信息報送紀律。各級防汛指揮機構應強化信息報送，上報信息要及時準確，既不能謊報，也不能瞞報；應嚴肅報送紀律，各級政府主管領導必須對報送的信息嚴格把關，各級防指、防辦領導對報送的信息要確認簽字，尤其是人員傷亡的信息，必須校準核實；更不能發(fā)生私自發(fā)布信息、小題大做、無事生非等現象。

四是強化災情調查核實工作。對于重大災情，應組織人員深入災區(qū)實際調查，全面搜集有關情況，核實災情統(tǒng)計數據，分析災情成因，做好減災評價工作。同時，涉及非水利的災害損失，要加強與民政、國土、農業(yè)、交通等有關部門的溝通聯(lián)系，建立統(tǒng)計信息互報機制，避免發(fā)生信息渠道不一、數據矛盾的情況發(fā)生，保證災情統(tǒng)計數據的準確性和權威性。

這種潛移默化的規(guī)范和引導，營造了良好的勵志教育的校園環(huán)境。思政工作者要善于抓住學生課余、自習時間，對學生可能存在的理想信念模糊、價值取向扭曲、艱苦奮斗精神弱化、社會責任感缺乏的現象進行分析與解決，為勵志教育增添光彩。通過對典型人物或先進事跡的宣傳，增強學生的競爭意識，帶動學生“學比趕幫超”的熱情，通過榜樣的力量促使學生的道德觀、價值觀、人生觀得到提升。勵志成才，燃起學生心中希望之火；樹立榜樣，讓學生朝著目標果敢前行。

五是建設完善災情分析評價體系。各級防汛指揮機構應提高洪澇災情統(tǒng)計水平，加強災情統(tǒng)計分析研究，科學編制各個區(qū)域洪水風險圖，建設包括人口、房屋、道路、農作物、工礦企業(yè)、電力通信等重要信息的洪水風險分析平臺，形成集基礎數據分析、洪澇災情信息分析、防汛指揮決策分析、防災減災效益分析等為一體的防災減災分析評價系統(tǒng)，進一步完善洪澇災情建設體系，為科學研究判定各類險情災情提供保障。

六是加強災情統(tǒng)計能力建設。各級防汛指揮機構應按照災情統(tǒng)計工作的要求，大力加強災情統(tǒng)計基礎設施建設，配備必要的信息處理采集設備，改善災情統(tǒng)計軟件使用環(huán)境；應加強災情統(tǒng)計隊伍建設，穩(wěn)定災情統(tǒng)計隊伍，強化災情統(tǒng)計人員培訓工作，提升統(tǒng)計人員能力水平，確保災情統(tǒng)計工作順暢。

七是加強對災情統(tǒng)計工作的組織領導。各級防汛指揮機構應進一步強化對洪澇災情統(tǒng)計工作，專門對洪澇災情統(tǒng)計工作進行安排部署，切實實行防辦主要領導負總責、分管領導具體抓的工作體制，具體落實好統(tǒng)計責任人，嚴格落實工作職責和任務，進一步規(guī)范統(tǒng)計報表填報、審核、審查程序，確保洪澇災情統(tǒng)計工作的質量和效果。

［Abstract］The paper introduces the main technique measures in the construction of cast-in-place girder with the movable module in the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway，which include the technique index，assembly technique，cross span control，cast-in-place girder construction and safety control.Furthermore，the effect analysis，the new technique and method in the construction and the safety management measure are introduced.

［Key words］movable module，cast-in-place girder，construction technique

［Abstract］The surface pre-grouting treatment measure with single cement slurry is used in construction of project. Based on the actual terrain and the geology condition，the construction scheme of surface grouting is adopted to reinforce the surrounding rock of cavern.Because the grouting range and drilling layout are similar to the slab culvert shape of the highway，this construction scheme of surface pre-grouting is named the slab culvert type grouting.The paper introduces in detail the design parameter and the range of grouting，the drilling layout，the construction technique，the quality inspection method and result，and so on.

［Abstract］Nierji reservoir and Fengman reservoir are the important control water conservancy projects in Songhuajiang river basin.The great floods which frequency is less than 2%happened sequentially for the two reservoirs in 2013.The two reservoirs play the great role in retaining flood，cutting down flood peak，shifting flood peak and decreasing the flood control pressure of the lower reaches.Through the effective regulations of the two reservoirs，the flood frequency of middle and lower reaches of Nenjiang river basin has been decreased to between 5%and 10%，the flood frequency of lower reaches of the second Songhuajiang river basin has been decreased to more than 20%，the flood frequency of Songhuajiang river basin has been decreased to between 5% and 10%.

［Key words］Songhuajiang river basin；Nierji reservoir；Fengman reservoir；flood retaining effect

［Abstract］The underground powerhouse of Huanggou pumped storage power station is the underground cavern group with about 300m buried depth.The largest working head of pressure pipe with reinforced concrete lining is about 700m.Therefore，the rational test method must be adopted to carry out the high pressure water pressure test for the water diversion branch pipe，the seepage characteristics，seepage stability and critical pressure of the surrounding rock of high pressure branch pipe are determined under the high water head.

［Key words］Huanggou pumped storage power station；high pressure water pressure test；critical pressure

［Abstract］The paper studies the influence of different varieties air entraining agents on the concrete water reducing ratio，the gas content，the variation of gas content in 1h，the compressive strength ratio and the frost resistance effect，analyzes the differences of the various air entraining agents，which could provide the basis for the selection and application of air entraining agent.

［Key words］air entraining agent；water reducing ratio；gas content；compressive strength ratio；frost resistance

［Abstract］Mercury is a persistent and extremely toxicity pollutant in the global cycle and has great damage to water environment and human health.At present，there are mainly three methods of the determination of mercury in surface water，which are the thermal atomic fluorescence method，the cold atomic fluorescence method and cold atomic absorption method.The three methods have respective characteristics in mercury determination. Based on the large number of experimental data，the optimization conditions of each method are summarized. Through the comparative analysis of three methods，the most suitable method of mercury determination in surface water of Liaohe river basin is obtained

［Key words］mercury；thermal atomic fluorescence；cold atomic fluorescence；cold atomic absorption

［Abstract］The paper demonstrates reservoir inflow volume，peak discharge and peak time in different conditions of soil water content and precipitation and calculates the anti storm capacity of reservoir in different conditions of soil water content and regulation priming level.The study shows that water storage of reservoir is more than average water storage after flood period for many years and the volume of detention flood is more after reservoir forecasted flood operation.Combining reservoir simulation forecast with reservoir forecasted flood operation，taking forecast flood volume of reservoir inflow as criterion condition，taking flood control level as control condition，the flood could realize the uniform discharge in advance through the reservoir operation.The maximum utilizable benefit of reservoir is satisfied under the premise of ensuring flood control benefit，which could improve flood water utilization efficiency to realize flood water utilization.

［Key words］Huludao；reservoir；flood water utilization；reservoir flood control operation

［中圖分類號］F4

［文獻標識碼］B

［文章編號］1002－0624（2016）02－0069－02

［收稿日期］#2015-06-23

Influence of fault on arch dam abutment deformation

JIN Hui，XIA Hui，LIU Li，DU Wen-cai

［Abstract］Concrete arch dam of Gaixiaba hydropower station is built on limestone of the lower series of Triassic Jialingjiang formation.The limestone is hard，integrated and uniform，with the high deformation modulus.The fault number is less and scale of the fault is small，their shapes are all narrow and long and there are many fragment and debris in the faults.Through the calculation analysis of fault compression by using the plane finite element，the result shows that the compression of fault is limited and has little impact on arch dam abutment deformation due to the factors of high deformation modulus of arch dam abutment rock and small scale fault，and so on.

［Key words］abutment fault；compression deformation；elliptic double-curvature arch dam；Gaixiaba hydropower station

Construction technique of cast-in-place concrete simple-supported box girder with bridge fabrication machine

TAN Jun-ning

Technique of slab culvert type surface grouting for water conveyance tunnel crossing river

ZONG Zhao-bo

Analysis of retaining effect of Fengman reservoir and Nierji reservoir in Songhuajiang river basin

XUE Mei，FENG Yan，ZHOU Xuan，SUN Qi-wei

Method discussion and result analysis of high pressure water pressure test for tunnel branch pipe

LIU Lu-jun，JI Cong

Difference study on influence of different kinds of air entraining agent on concrete performance

LI Yuan，GAO Kuan

Comparison study on mercury determination method in surface water

ZHENG Guo-chen，PENG Jun，ZHAO Zhe，LIN Guang yu

Simulation study on reservoir regulation of flood water resources utilization in Huludao area

JIN Xin