經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與區(qū)域信息鴻溝

效率優(yōu)先，兼顧公平，幾乎成為20世紀(jì)70年代后期以來我國制定國家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略，尤其是區(qū)域發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的基本定律。應(yīng)當(dāng)說，中國的發(fā)展是“成功”的：改革開放以來，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)實現(xiàn)了持續(xù)高速增長，創(chuàng)造了20世紀(jì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的奇跡：GDP由1980年的4514億元上升為2004年的近136500億元，年均增長達(dá)9％以上，國家綜合國力邁入國際六強行列；國際貿(mào)易額由1980年的380億美元增加到2004年11547億美元，進(jìn)入全球前三；外匯儲備，1980年僅29億美元，2004年底達(dá)6099億美元，坐二望一。

但是，或許是由于“摸著石頭過河”的緣故，我們并沒有預(yù)計到這種發(fā)展可能帶來的嚴(yán)重負(fù)效應(yīng)，或者說我們沒有適時地調(diào)整發(fā)展模式，特別是我們可能在發(fā)展過程之中出現(xiàn)了“效率超重、公平失重”的偏誤，導(dǎo)致我們的暢享發(fā)展成果的同時，確實面臨著許多棘手的“發(fā)展問題”。在一些人看來，發(fā)展，特別是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展似乎就是現(xiàn)代化、也是現(xiàn)代化的終點，他們看重產(chǎn)出，特別是有形的產(chǎn)出，對投入和產(chǎn)出的分配關(guān)注甚少，從而導(dǎo)致了嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境問題、資源問題、生態(tài)問題以及社會問題。比如，我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展十分迅速，但是我們的社會發(fā)展、文化發(fā)展卻相對嚴(yán)重滯后；我們的工業(yè)化發(fā)展迅速，但是城市化、服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展十分滯后（見表），第三產(chǎn)業(yè)和城市化水平比國際同水平國家低10－15個百分點；我們的社會財富急劇增加，但社會分配不公，貧富懸殊的問題日益嚴(yán)重，基尼系數(shù)由20世紀(jì)80年代初的0.25緩慢增加，90年代初為0.3，90年代末急劇擴(kuò)大為0.45， 2002年為0.48，2003年為0.52，而國際公認(rèn)的臨界點僅僅是0.40；三農(nóng)問題、城鄉(xiāng)問題、區(qū)域問題，等等。

我國幅員遼闊，人口眾多。我們不能期望實現(xiàn)我國社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)。因為區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的理論告訴我們，區(qū)域的發(fā)展均衡僅僅是一種“烏托邦”，不均衡才是真實地、現(xiàn)實的，也只有通過不均衡的發(fā)展才能夠解決區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不均衡問題：即通過新的不均衡來取代舊的不均衡。同時，審美學(xué)告訴人們，殘缺才是最美的，斷臂的維納斯更讓人欣賞。當(dāng)然，這種殘缺的痛苦也只有身處殘缺之中的人才能夠體味。

有一個人們熟知的故事：記者在西部一個偏遠(yuǎn)山村采訪了一位正在放羊的孩子，記者問他：長大以后準(zhǔn)備做什么？孩子回答：放羊、結(jié)婚、生小孩。記者再問：生了小孩以后準(zhǔn)備讓他干什么？這位牧羊童答道：放羊。信息給人視野、給人理想，信息給人以發(fā)展的期望。如果我們?nèi)萑踢@種信息鴻溝繼續(xù)存在并擴(kuò)大，我們就在踐踏最基本的人權(quán)：生存與發(fā)展權(quán)。

Energy Price Shocks and Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy

Shih-Mo Lin Chung Yuan Christian University

This paper modifies a typical real business cycle(RBC)model with indivisible labor by explicitly including energy as a productive input and modeling the relative price of energy as an exogenous random process. In closed models， the production technology of firms is described by alternative specifications， which include Cobb-Douglas， regular CES and nested CES functions， respectively. Our simulation results show that， no matter what production function is， energy consumption and employment are pro-cycle， and oil prices are counter-cycle. When a positive energy price shocks occurs， energy consumption and employment all appear to be negatively affected. Furthermore， in the long run， this shock will cause the employment to rise higher than its initial steady state. From the results of simulation in the open economy model， we find that energy consumption， net exports and employment are pro-cyclical， and oil price is counter-cyclical. When a positive energy price shock happened， it has a negative influence on energy consumption， output， net exports and employment， and a positive influence on investment. When a negative world interest rate shock happened， it has a negative influence on energy consumption， output and employment， and a positive influence on net exports.

East Asia Monetary Cooperation: Progress and Prospects

Lu， Ding

Since the Asian Financial Crisis 1997-98， regional monetary cooperation involving ASEAN + 3 (China， Japan， and South Korea) countries has made important progress， highlighted by the Chiang Mai Initiative (2000)， a currency swap agreement among these economies， and the Asian Bond Initiative (2002). Meanwhile， regional economic integration has gained great impetus from the free trade pact between ASEAN and China. This paper reviews the progress of East Asia monetary cooperation and the prospects for such cooperation to move towards greater monetary-finance integration. In particular， we will discuss the pros and cons for the regional economies to form a monetary union as they tear down intra-region trade barriers through free trade agreements. According to the thesis of Optimal Currency Area， cost-benefit analysis of monetary union largely depends on whether the shocks in the union zone are symmetric or not and on the degree of intra-region labour mobility. Economic integration will certainly enhance intra-region specialization as well as factor mobility. It is， however， controversial whether the net effect will make the region more suitable for a monetary union. Based on the review of relevant literature， this paper will present some preliminary empirical evidence and explore the ways of further research.

Developing Energy Security and Cooperation in Asia

Katsuhiko Suetsugu

Secretary General， Asia-Pacific Energy Forum

To enhance the energy security in Asia， it is important to clarify the policy goals for the energy security. China's continuing economic growth and increasing energy demand， increasing oil consumption in the US market are the factors to be considered for the energy security policies.Most of the countries in Asia are importing petroleum from Middle East by ships and transportation by sea-lane， which needs to be secured for the stable economic growth of each member economy. In addition to this， geopolitical， military and diplomatic factors in Asia should be addressed to minimizing the new risks for the energy security in this region.

It is essential that China， Japan， Korea and ASEAN countries would cooperate to create the guideline for the collective energy security in this region including capacity of energy supply， strategic stockpile of oil， formation of market mechanism， and better technology transfer. The risks of climate change resulting from energy-related greenhouse gas emissions and the energy crisis have been overlapping these days. It is mandatory that the policies for energy security need to be designed to reduce each nation誷 emissions of greenhouse gases and protect its natural environment.

Japan would like to contribute Asian energy security by enabling nuclear power to continue to play a meaningful role in meeting future energy needs， and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

長安開門紅，開門紅世界

4月16日，眾多長安俱樂部會員及十余家知名企業(yè)云集長安俱樂部，共同見證了長安俱樂部又一次輝煌騰飛。

兩扇古老的朱紅色木門開啟了2005年度長安俱樂部的首次商務(wù)例會。一團(tuán)團(tuán)紅色的火焰燃燒象征著長安俱樂部與所有參展公司紅紅火火，蒸蒸日上；一條條活潑可愛的紅色金魚無憂無慮地暢游，使每一位參加活動的會員感受著長安俱樂部生機勃勃的氣息。優(yōu)雅的晚裝表演和熱鬧的抽獎，都令會員在這個紅紅火火的俱樂部中，享受著尊貴與輝煌。

位于北京東長安街毗鄰天安門廣場，王府井商業(yè)區(qū)的長安俱樂部于1993年投資興建，一直服務(wù)于政府高級官員和重要國際友人。1996年正式對外吸納第一批創(chuàng)始會員， 不到1000組的會藉以固定資產(chǎn)的形式8年中每年都在遞增。長安俱樂部是由以管理世界上高級俱樂部而聞名的CCA國際管理集團(tuán)管理。八年過去了，長安俱樂部已成為京城的首要會議場所、商務(wù)運作和建立長期持久合作關(guān)系的一座重要橋梁。自從其建成之始，集團(tuán)董事長，中國首席女富豪陳麗華女士就將其發(fā)展方向定位為中國的頭號高檔商務(wù)俱樂部。

20余家參展商都將公司最優(yōu)秀的產(chǎn)品與項目，傳統(tǒng)的企業(yè)文化，經(jīng)營理念展示給每一個參會的會員。商務(wù)交流洽談之后，眾多會員一起就“尋找2005年的金礦”這一主題展開了論談。會談中，會員張民耕先生，魯悅女士以及我們邀請到的嘉賓蔚強先生，張明涵先生對金融，風(fēng)險投資和珠寶等行業(yè)的發(fā)展趨勢與市場動向作了深刻的分析與交流。并與其它會員一起探討在2005年何種行業(yè)，何種產(chǎn)業(yè)會帶來無限商機并帶來巨大的升值潛力。會員們各抒己見，將論壇的氣氛一次又一次推向高潮。意猶未盡的論壇后，長安俱樂部總經(jīng)理萬吉偉先生隆重宣布：長安俱樂部個人會籍卡升值為USD18，000，公司會籍卡升值為USD20，000。