3 China’s Neighborhood Diplomacy in the New Era: Theoretical Innovation and Practical Achievements

by Fang Changping, Zhou Fangyin, Lu Guangsheng, Liu Qing&Han Aiyong

【Abstract】At the CPC Central Committee’s first conference on diplomacy with neighboring countries held in October 2013, President Xi Jinping emphasized, “China’s basic policy of diplomacy with neighboring countries is to treat them as friends and partners, to make them feel secure and to support their development.This policy is characterized by friendship, sincerity, reciprocity and inclusiveness.” As an important part of China’s major country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in the new era,the country’s neighborhood diplomacy has made impressive progress in terms of both theoretical innovation and practical results: Its main concern has shifted from economic and security factors to national strategy, the guiding principle from functional cooperation to emotive affinity, and its objective from neighborhood stability to the building of a community with a shared future with neighboring countries.

Given the complex changes in the international order and neighborhood order,China has sought to play a more important and constructive role by adjusting the policies,positions and practices in its diplomacy with neighboring countries.Neighborhood diplomacy constitutes an important practical move in promoting a community with a shared future for mankind, and ASEAN is a pilot zone for a community with a shared future in the Chinese neighborhood.Since the 18thNational Congress of the Party,neighborhood diplomacy has made progress or breakthroughs in multiple dimensions:Central Asia and ASEAN have been identified as two priority regions, and West Asia and the Pacific Island countries as two new regions.

On the occasion of the 10thanniversary of the CPC Central Committee’s Neighborhood Diplomacy Conference, the editorial office ofInternationalForumand the School of International Relations and Diplomacy, both at Beijing Foreign Studies University,organized the academic conference “Theory and Practice in China’s Neighborhood Diplomacy in the New Era” on September 16, 2023, where well-known experts from more than a dozen universities and research institutions held in-depth exchanges on this topic.What we present below are five articles written by the expert participants.

【Key Words】Chinese diplomacy with neighboring countries, a community with a shared future for mankind, international order, ASEAN, Central Asia

36 The Institutionalization of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation:Evolution and Assessment

by Wang Mingguo

【Abstract】The Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) is the foremost cooperation mechanism under the Belt and Road framework.The preparation of the BRF not only involves the strategic planning of the Chinese government, but also benefits from the accumulation of experiences in exploring cooperative mechanisms in various fields, and the strong support of the existing cooperation mechanisms of the Belt and Road.At present, the BRF, which focuses on areas such as green development,energy, financing and trade, has grown into the hub of the ‘China track’ in global governance as its institutionalization keeps growing.Based on the institutional evolution,normative practice and implementation of the BRF, it can be evaluated from two aspects:norms and overall institutional desgin, and institutional platforms and mechanisms.From the perspective of norms and overall institutional desgin, the BRF is a decisive move in creating international platforms for cooperation and coordination, and the conceptual exploration and successful practice of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).From the perspective of institutional platforms and mechanisms, the leading role of the topdown Leaders’ Round Table is increasingly prominent, and the functions of multilateral platforms in various fields continue to increase.At present, the joint construction of the BRI has reached a new historical starting point.It needs to enhance institutionalization and norm-making, improve the support mechanisms, docking mechanisms, and followup coordination mechanisms of the BRF.It also needs to encourage stakeholderships among participating countries and increase the guiding role of the multilateral cooperative mechanisms.

【Key Words】The Belt and Road, BRF, international institutions, multilateralism, global governance

53 The Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia: A Decade of Joint Construction and the Path for High-Quality Development

by Yang Yue&Li Zhengyang

【Abstract】In the decade since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was proposed,China and Southeast Asian countries have, by adhering to the principles of extensive consultation, joint construction and shared benefits, made great achievements through following top leaders’ guidance, signing cooperation frameworks, pushing project implementation, refining and improving policy measures, and taking advantage of the platforms.Southeast Asia, which always scores the highest in the five-connectivity index as compared with other regions along the BRI, has been an exemplary role model for the joint construction of the BRI thanks to the growing convergence of the development strategies of the two sides, marked improvement in their infrastructure connectivity,phenomenal expansion in economic and trade relations, quick progress in emerging areas of cooperation, and the expansion of people-to-people and cultural exchanges.All countries in Southeast Asia choose to support the BRI not only because of the high compatibility of the two sides’ development strategies, but also because of the desire of the Southeast Asian elites to maintain their political legitimacy that is based on “development”.However, the Southeast Asian countries’ perceptions and policies toward the BRI vary due to such factors as different national needs and different calculations resulting from different debt repayment capacities, the need for balanced diplomacy,weaknesses in domestic governance, and domestic politics.In the future, the two sides can endeavor to promote the high-quality development of BRI in three directions:consolidating existing achievements, implementing initiatives in various fields, and tackling key and difficult issues.

【Key Words】The Belt and Road Initiative, China-ASEAN community with a shared future, Neighborhood Diplomacy, China-ASEAN relations

72 NATO’s Climate Security Agenda: Green Transformation within the Collective Security Framework

by Sun Chenghao&Wang Yinuo

【Abstract】The development of NATO’s climate security governance, which has basically undergone the stages of conceptualization and institutionalization, enters the new stage of updating the agenda.With the release ofNATOClimateChangeandSecurity ActionPlanin 2021 andClimateChangeandSecurityImpactAssessmentin 2022,NATO has formed a relatively mature climate security agenda and a new governance mode.As a green transformation in a collective security system, its distinctive features include its emphasis on military security and collective defense, especially leveraging an interoperable global partnership network; taking full advantage of scientific research and technological innovation; and a geopolitical view centered in Europe but also extending to the Asia-Pacific.From ensuring collective security and stability and coping with geopolitical and economic crises, to strengthening defense and military capabilities, and to pursuing leadership in global climate governance, defense and security are the logical foundation of the formation and development of NATO’s climate security agenda.This agenda will have an profound impact on “global NATO”, global climate governance, and security and climate cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, but its effectiveness is still limited by the capabilities and willingness of its allies and partners.China should fully understand NATO’s climate security agenda, adhere to the holistic approach to national security and the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, and contribute Chinese wisdom to the sound and healthy development of global climate governance.

【Key Words】the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, climate security, climate change,global climate governance

92 The EU-Indo Pacific Strategy of the Biden Administration: Content and Impacts

by Wang Lei

【Abstract】The traditional “two-ocean” strategy of the US has evolved, thanks to the efforts of the Biden administration, into a de facto EU-Indo Pacific strategy that integrates the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific flanks, making it possible for strategic resources and forces to move in both directions across the flanks, while maintaining parallel dual containment of China and Russia.The new strategy has resulted from the need to maintain US hegemony and the fact that US power is in relative decline.Its main thrust is to “draw European allies into Asia” where the US has sought to increase its military presence and expand its influence by getting NATO, the EU and major European powers involved in Indo-Pacific affairs.A secondary move is to “draw Asian allies into Europe” to counterbalance Russia, tapping into the security provision by mostly NATO’s four Asia-Pacific partners (AP4) - Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.This EU-Indo Pacific strategy is characterized by US leadership over allies, priority given to the East over the West, and so-called shared Western democratic values.The major constraints this new strategy faces include the West’s overall decline of power, differences among US allies, and Chinese and Russian counterbalancing through enhanced strategic coordination.Biden’s strategic adjustment has serious negative impacts on regional and international peace and stability.China should adhere to the principles of integrity and innovation, and go beyond traditional geopolitical thinking to approach its global strategy, focusing on issues such as opposing hegemony while remaining in the current international order, maintaining coherence between domestic affairs and foreign relations, and striking the right balance between development and security.

【Key Words】geopolitics, US strategy, EU-Indo Pacific coordination, China-US relations, China-Russia relations

107 Threat Perceptions, Expected Costs and CSTO’s Selective Intervention in Regional Crises

by Zeng Xianghong&Wang Zihan

【Abstract】As a most representative military alliance in Eurasia, the Central Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) attitudes towards security crises in its member states vary significantly.In the case of Kazakhstan riots that broke out in January 2022, the CSTO responded promptly at the request of President of Kazakhstan through swift intervention.But when it came to the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from 2020 onwards, the CSTO has done nothing and ignored Armenia’s repeated requests.In order to explain why the CSTO selectively intervenes in regional crises, this paper constructs an analytical framework using threat perceptions and expected costs as independent variables: If threat perception is high and expected costs are low, the CSTO is more likely to intervene; if both threat perception and expected costs are high, the CSTO is likely to intervene to a limited extent; if threat perception is low and expected costs are high, the CSTO is less likely to intervene; and if both threat perception and cost expectation are low, the CSTO will do nothing.The analysis reveals that the CSTO chose to intervene in Kazakhstan riots due to high threat perception and low expected costs, while it did not intervene in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict due to low threat perception and high expected costs.In terms of the CSTO’s prospects, its indifference has led Armenia to gradually distance itself from this Russia-centered security organization.At the same time, due to the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict, three member states Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan all showed a centrifugal tendency.In the foreseeable future, the CSTO’s cohesion and ability to act may be undermined.

【Key Words】CSTO, Kazakhstan riots, the second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, threat perception, expected costs

132 Developments in Kazakhstan Diplomacy since the Ukraine Crisis

by Sun Fang&Gao Xue

【Abstract】Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the increasingly fierce competition among major powers has posed a severe diplomatic test for Kazakhstan, a powerful country in Central Asia.The Kazakhstan coping strategy has been to distance itself from Russia, deepen cooperation with China, moderately engage with the United States and Europe, closely align with its Central Asian brethren, and enhance relations with Türkiye.At the present stage, Kazakhstan’s strategy is characterized by efforts to maintain continuity in foreign policy, seeking to promote economic relations through diplomacy and by the mixing of both passive and active elements.In the context of economic globalization and rising geopolitical competition, changes in Kazakhstan’s diplomatic direction are both inevitable and reasonable.Facing the complex and ever-changing regional environment, Kazakhstan is expected to continue to pursue a diversified and balanced diplomatic strategy in the future and adhere to diplomatic principles of autonomy and pragmatism to preserve its national security and national interests as much as possible.Over the past 31 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Kazakhstan, bilateral relations have grown by leaps and bounds, and have become a paragon in China's neighborhood diplomacy.Looking ahead, the two countries will continue to maintain close coordination, work together to deepen bilateral cooperation in economy and trade, energy, security, ecology, people-to-people exchanges and other areas, through multilateral channels such as summit meetings between China and Central Asian countries to promote regional development and steer regional cooperation, so as to jointly build a closer China-Central Asia community with a shared future.

【Key Words】Kazakhstan, Ukraine crisis, Central Asian countries, Chinese diplomacy,the Belt and Road Initiative