3 Rethinking the U.S. Strategic Assessment: Theory and Method

【Abstract】As an important part of the strategic decision-making process, strategic assessment refers to the comprehensive evaluation of strategy formulation and implementation, which mainly consists in a comprehensive trend analysis of the great powers in the world. Although high-quality strategic assessment cannot guarantee highquality final strategic decision-making, ultimately strategic decision-making and foreign policy must rely on strategic assessment. The U.S. strategic assessment is characterized by extensive temporal and geographical coverage and the inclusion of multiple issue areas, encompassing the assessment of current and future trends in politics, economy, military power, science and technology, and the industrial sectors. This paper first examines the theoretical evolution and features of U.S. strategic assessment, then uses net assessment as an example to discuss the methods of such assessment, and finally discusses how to apply these methods to analyze U.S. national security strategy reports. Only by understanding the theory, logic and method of U.S. strategic assessment can we go beyond the text of these assessments to better understand the policy implications so as to propose more accurate measures for China to deal with the external challenges posed by the United States, and further promote the theoretical development in international relations.

【Key Words】national security, strategic assessment, net assessment, strategic environment, National Security Strategy of the United States of America

20 Selective Withdrawal, Multilateral Competition and Trump's Counterinstitutionalization International Strategy

by Wang Mingguo

【Abstract】In a reversal of previous U.S. commitment to the international system, Trump has adopted a counter-institutionalization strategy in international politics. This strategy, which is an integral part of the “America First” national security strategy, consists of basic principles, main objectives and instruments. Informed by the principles of selective withdrawal and contested multilateralism, it tries to use the international institutions to maintain U.S. hegemony by using means such as protest, selective withdrawal, regime shifting and competitive regime creation. The strategy is characterized by historical continuity and consistency with current circumstances, reflective of American bullying and unilateralism. The U.S. considers itself a victim of the liberal international order and tries to change the current international institutional system. Trump himself questions the international institutions and insists on implementing the counter-institutionalization strategy. This strategy has triggered the crisis of multilateralism and further worsened the rule-based international institutional system. However, the strategy cannot hinder the development and evolution of the multilateral system. Whether counterinstitutionalization can be successfully realized depends on the matching degree of objectives, capabilities and implementation, and on the future development of multipolarization.

【Key Words】treaty withdrawal, contested multilateralism, international institutions, Donald Trump, counter-institutionalization

41 Challenges of Global Governance and Progress in Sino-EU Cooperation

by Feng Cunwan

【Abstract】Since the beginning of the 21st Century, global governance has faced a daunting set of complex structural challenges. These changes will fundamentally reshape international relations and major countries’ diplomacy. As leading players in global governance, both China and the EU are facing various challenges of transition and adjustment at home and abroad. For both, these changes have provided not only the external push for internal policy adjustments but also important opportunities for the introduction of a new model of bilateral relations. As two of the world’s most consequential players, China and the EU must fully appreciate the transformation taking place in global governance, and build a stable and sustainable strategic partnership as they explore the opportunities afforded by the transformation. This article argues that the integration of the Belt and Road Initiative and the EU-Asia Connectivity Strategy will allow China and the EU to coordinate their global governance strategies, strengthen the strategic autonomy of their bilateral relationship, and deepen strategic cooperation in traditional and emerging areas, thus providing the critical support for global governance.【Key Words】global governance, Sino-EU Relations, the Belt and Road Initiative

55 From “All-out Competition” to “Third-party Market Cooperation”: Recent Developments in China-Japan Cooperation in the Greater Mekong Sub-region

by Zhao Tianpeng

【Abstract】There has been for long competition between China and Japan in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) over infrastructure construction, regional cooperation mechanisms, geopolitics and maritime security. However, this began to change from 2018 with the emergence of bilateral cooperation, mainly in the form of third-party market cooperation in Thailand's Eastern Economic Corridor. The shift is attributable to three main factors. First, US-induced changes in the international environment have led China and Japan to seek regional economic cooperation. Second, the GMS has provided a wide geographical area and a specific platform for the two countries to conduct third-party market cooperation. Third, Thailand, a middle power in the GMS, has played an active role in coordinating the cooperation between China and Japan. Though the main thrust of Japan's approach to China in the GMS is still competition, their third-party market cooperation in Thailand has provided a new way for Sino-Japanese cooperation in the GMS.

【Key Words】the Greater Mekong Sub-region, Sino-Japanese all-out competition, third-party market cooperation, the Eastern Economic Corridor of Thailand

72 Seventy Years of Chinese Cultural Diplomacy: Continuity and Innovation

By Yang Yue

【Abstract】To fulfill the important task of China's cultural going out in the new era, cultural diplomacy is an important starting point. Since its founding 70 years ago, the Chinese government has consistently attached great importance to cultural diplomacy, which has always played a foundational and pilot role. With a comprehensive cultural diplomacy strategy and its related policy planning in place, Chinese cultural diplomacy has made much progress, enhancing the country's cultural consciousness and cultural confidence. Based on an exploration of the development of the strategy and the practice of China's cultural diplomacy since the founding of People's Republic of China, this paper seeks to examine how China should approach its cultural going out in the new era.

【Key Words】cultural diplomacy, Chinese diplomacy, Chinese culture, Xi Jinping thought on major country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in the new era

84 Competition of National Influence between China and the United States in Six Southeast Asian States: An Audience-based Transnational Comparison

by Bao Zhipeng&Jin Canrong

【Abstract】When assessing a nation's influence, attention should be paid not only to its magnitude, but also to how it is perceived by publics. Based on findings from six Southeast Asian states, China has already surpassed the US in terms of overall national influence. Specifically, the traditionalism-leaning audience hold more positive attitudes toward China whereas the pro-authoritarianism audience hold more positive attitudes toward the US. Differences in political systems clearly affect the public's appraisal of the influence of both China and the US. Although China enjoys an edge in terms of overall influence, its ability to influence globalization in this region is still limited. It's imperative for China to improve the quality of its influence as it seeks to shape regional order in Southeast Asia. China should continue its efforts to increase its edge in globalization and fashion its own brand with global influence. It is also essential to enhance China's image on social media and encourage more civil organizations to go global.

【Key Words】national influence, Southeast Asia, China, the United States

104 Retention and Innovation: the Theoretical Contribution of Kenneth Waltz's Neo-realism Reconsidered

by Yang Jiping

【Abstract】Kenneth N. Waltz's neo-realism is a milestone in International Relations (IR), but how exactly it constitutes a milestone has been interpreted variously. It does not signify the beginning of scientific study in IR, rather it's a historic reinterpretation of the core arguments of classical realism. Waltz agrees with classical realists that human rationality is limited, that the distribution of power is the most reliable arbiter when it comes to solving disputes, and that politicians have a moral responsibility to fulfill. The chasm which divides them is not as wide as people thought it to be as classical realists also emphasize the importance of security, and recognize the existence of the security dilemma in which one state's efforts to maximize its power often end up with insecurity, and it is preferable instead to have appropriate amount power. Classical realists also appreciate the complexity of causal relations in world politics as the results are seldom consistent with participants' motives, and the existence of unintended consequences which is normal in politics is very similar to Waltz's idea of “systemic effects”. Neo-classical realists who have tried to make the Waltzian theory more scientific by combining structural and unitlevel variables in the hope of producing more precise explanations and predictions of state behaviors have not only misunderstood Waltz, but also deviate from the realist tradition.

【Key Words】limits of rationality, neo-realism, Kenneth N. Waltz, systemic effects, the science of international politics

116 Arthashastra and Kautilya's Thoughts on International Relations

by Gao Gang

【Abstract】In his Arthashastra, a masterpiece of Indian classical political realism, Kautilya, who is known as the Indian Machiavelli, put forward a series of strategies and methods about governance, foreign policy and hegemony. The main elements of his thinking include the Mandala theory (namely the circle of states that help to distinguish allies and enemies), the seven elements of the state (the Saptanga theory), the realpolitik view of national security in the Mandala system, and the six-fold foreign policy based on national strength. They offer guide on how to develop national strength, find suitable allies, use effective strategies to weaken and defeat the opponents, and ultimately achieve the country's development and rise to hegemony. The Kautilyan tradition constitutes an important source of contemporary Indian foreign policy strategy and strategic outlook, and has had increasing impact on contemporary Indian foreign policy behavior.

【Key Words】Arthashastra, Kautilya, Indian foreign policy, Mandala system

129 The EU Regulation Establishing a Framework for the Screening of Foreign Direct Investments: Europeanization through the Transposition of Domestic Policies in Member States

by Chen Ruohong

【Abstract】The European Union's Regulation 2019/452 establishing a framework for the screening of FDI into the Union, empowers the EU Commission to review FDI into any member state on the grounds of security and public order. This effectively puts an end to the state-based FDI review and weakens the ability of member states to approve FDI. As it goes into effect, it may have negative impact on Chinese FDI in key technologies and key infrastructure, and on FDI by Chinese state-owned enterprises. One the one hand, shifting the FDI security review away from the individual member states to the EU is a projection of French and Germany domestic mechanisms onto the EU. Due to anxiety over Sino-EU competition, the two countries have sought to introduce the EU-wide review system to influence FDI into other EU states. On the other hand, even though the mechanism may bring convergence in FDI security review in the EU, it still faces uncertainties and challenges in its implementation. Such challenges may become more pronounced when member states disagree with the EU over development and security.

【Key Words】EU FDI policy, two-way Europeanization, international projection of state policies, China-EU relations

142 The Baluchistan Issue: From the Perspective of Cross-border Ethnic Groups

by Su Xin&Li Fuquan

【Abstract】The cross-border distribution of the Balochis began to emerge with European colonial expansion and the forced division into different European spheres of influence, and was formalized with the establishment of nation-states such as Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. From the perspective of the nation-states involved, the crossborder integration of the Balochis led by Balochi nationalists will promote the formation of a potential regional actor, which poses a great threat to the territorial integrity of Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. In terms of regional security, terrorist activities by Balochi rebel groups are becoming increasingly rampant, and have negative impact on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). From a global perspective, cross-border Balochi communities, which have become a natural gateway for drug trafficking and illegal smuggling of refugees, not only seriously affect the security of the international community, but also cause severe international humanitarian crises. Ultimately, the best way to solve the problem is to construct a community of shared interests for the Balochis by recognizing the legitimate demands of the ordinary Balochis, which should not be confused with those of the separatists, and the role of the Balochi tribal leaders.

【Key Words】cross-border ethnic groups, the Balochis, separatism, terrorist activities, regional security governance