史王民

摘要：本文運(yùn)用應(yīng)用最為廣泛和比較成熟的索羅余值法測算咸陽科技進(jìn)步貢獻(xiàn)率，該方法需要資本平均增長率，勞動(dòng)力增長率及其彈性系數(shù)。勞動(dòng)力相關(guān)資料較易獲得，而資本相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)必須測算。資本測算有許多方法各有優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，且存在較大差異，本文選擇以平均資本產(chǎn)出比法和永續(xù)盤存法兩種方法結(jié)合測算咸陽資本。資本、勞動(dòng)力產(chǎn)出彈性系數(shù)則以我國專家研究成果為參考，結(jié)合咸陽實(shí)際適當(dāng)修正。在測算出資本、勞動(dòng)力、科技進(jìn)步對咸陽經(jīng)濟(jì)貢獻(xiàn)率的基礎(chǔ)上，分析咸陽各要素驅(qū)動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長程度及潛力，提出咸陽全要素生產(chǎn)率提高的途徑。

Abstract： This paper uses the most widely used and mature Solow residual method to measure the contribution rate of Xianyang science and technology progress. This method requires the average growth rate of capital， labor growth rate and its elasticity coefficient. Labor-related data are easier to obtain， and capital-related data must be measured. There are many advantages and disadvantages in the measurement of capital， and there are major differences. This paper chooses the combination of average capital output ratio method and perpetual inventory method to measure Xianyang capital. The coefficient of elasticity of output of capital and labor is based on the results of the research of experts in China， and is properly amended in light of the actual situation in Xianyang. On the basis of measuring the contribution rate of capital， labor， and scientific and technological advancement to Xianyang's economy， this paper analyzes the extent and potential of economic growth driven by various elements in Xianyang and proposes ways to increase total factor productivity in Xianyang.

關(guān)鍵詞：資本測算；科技進(jìn)步貢獻(xiàn)率；創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)途徑

Key words： capital calculation；contribution rate of scientific and technological progress；innovation driven approach

中圖分類號：F323.3 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼：A 文章編號：1006-4311（2018）21-0281-06

1 科技進(jìn)步貢獻(xiàn)率測算的意義

創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)有技術(shù)性的創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)和非技術(shù)性的組織創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)。非技術(shù)性變化的組織、制度創(chuàng)新要通過深化改革解決，非技術(shù)性的變化創(chuàng)新為技術(shù)性變化創(chuàng)新營造良好的環(huán)境，創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)最終要落實(shí)到技術(shù)性的變化創(chuàng)新上，而技術(shù)性變化創(chuàng)新要依靠技術(shù)進(jìn)步實(shí)現(xiàn)。技術(shù)進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用毋庸置疑，而技術(shù)進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響程度及怎樣影響較復(fù)雜，通過技術(shù)進(jìn)步貢獻(xiàn)率的測算有助于跟蹤經(jīng)濟(jì)創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)、轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的過程（廖遠(yuǎn)甦，2013），才能弄清楚影響技術(shù)進(jìn)步的因素及其關(guān)系，及技術(shù)進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)程度，找到提高技術(shù)進(jìn)步水平和促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的途徑。創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)成為各級政府“十三五”規(guī)劃及其實(shí)施主要的途徑和方式，是經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)、高質(zhì)量、有效率的增長關(guān)鍵所在。

2 咸陽科技進(jìn)步貢獻(xiàn)率測算方法選擇

本文選擇目前應(yīng)用最廣泛和相對成熟的索羅余值法。由美國著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家索洛提出，將進(jìn)步技術(shù)速度作為余值：ΔA/A=ΔY/Y-αΔK/K-βΔL/L

式中：ΔY/Y為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，ΔK/K為資本增長，ΔL/L為勞動(dòng)增長，ΔA/A為技術(shù)進(jìn)步增長，α，β為資本和勞動(dòng)力產(chǎn)出彈性系數(shù)。Α+β=1。

資本對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)=αΔK/K，貢獻(xiàn)率率=αΔK/K/ΔY/Y；

勞動(dòng)力對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)=βΔL/L，貢獻(xiàn)率=βΔL/L/ΔY/Y；

技術(shù)進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)=ΔA/A，貢獻(xiàn)率率=ΔA/A/ΔY/Y。

3 參數(shù)確定

本文選擇咸陽2000-2016年相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)做為參數(shù)確定的基礎(chǔ)。

3.1 咸陽資本確定

關(guān)于咸陽資本確定應(yīng)用資本產(chǎn)出比方法和永續(xù)盤存法結(jié)合確定。

①資本產(chǎn)出比方法。

對咸陽資本總量估測，擬用我國平均資本產(chǎn)出比與咸陽經(jīng)濟(jì)總量GDP確定。即咸陽資本總量=平均資本產(chǎn)出比×咸陽經(jīng)濟(jì)總量。

資本產(chǎn)出比=資本總量/經(jīng)濟(jì)總量，經(jīng)濟(jì)總量GDP、資本總量均以1978年的價(jià)格確定。數(shù)據(jù)取自我國學(xué)者對1978-2009年的我國資本資本總量測算的研究結(jié)果及在此基礎(chǔ)上根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局資料以永續(xù)盤存法測算2010-2016資本總量。并計(jì)算資本產(chǎn)出比。其中資本折舊率選擇5%。資本總量=期初資本總量（1-折舊率）+當(dāng)年投資不變價(jià)格。計(jì)算結(jié)果如表1所示。