李建民+陳潔

摘 要： 大學(xué)生就業(yè)難引起了中國關(guān)于過度教育的爭論，然而過度教育研究的基石——過度教育的測度一直有其局限性，本文提出了一種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化方法，用美國各職業(yè)的教育準(zhǔn)入標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來測度中國的過度教育，發(fā)現(xiàn)目前我國呈現(xiàn)出“高端過度、低端不足”的格局，過度教育者主要分布在辦事人員和商業(yè)服務(wù)業(yè)，教育不足者主要是單位負(fù)責(zé)人和生產(chǎn)運輸業(yè)從業(yè)者?；谶@種測度方法使用第三期中國婦女社會地位調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)分析了性別、年齡、婚姻等因素對過度教育發(fā)生率的影響，運用工具變量解決了忽略個人異質(zhì)性帶來的內(nèi)生性問題。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)女性相較于男性更容易出現(xiàn)教育過度；年輕者較年長者更易于出現(xiàn)教育過度；已婚者比未婚者更易于出現(xiàn)教育過度；教育程度越高，越容易出現(xiàn)教育過度。我國目前存在高學(xué)歷者的過度供給，但這不能通過否定和抑制高等教育的發(fā)展來解決，而是要以人力資本儲備為支撐，促進產(chǎn)業(yè)升級和職業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的合理轉(zhuǎn)變。

關(guān)鍵詞： 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化測度方法；教育過度；教育不足

中圖分類號： G40-051；F062.3 文獻標(biāo)識碼：A 文章編號：1000-4149（2017）05-0034-11 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2017.05.004

Estimation Over Education in China：

Based on the Standards of Vocation Entry-level Education in the US

LI Jianmin， CHEN Jie

（Institute of Population and Development Research， Nankai University， Tianjin 300071，China）

Abstract： The difficulty of getting a job for graduates arouses controversy over whether there is over education in China， but the cornerstone of over education research-the measurement of over education has its limitation， so this paper puts forward entry-level education of the occupation in the United States to measure China s over education. It has been found that under education of primary level and over education of high level largely exist at the same time. Over education mainly exists in the staff and business services and under education is mainly engaged in executives and the production and transportation occupation. Then using the data of the Third Wave Survey on the Social Status of Women in China analyzes the influence of gender， age， marital status and other factors on the incidence of over education based on this measurement method. The instrument variable is used to solve the endogenous problems caused by ignoring individual heterogeneity. This study reveals that compared with women， men are more likely to occur over education； younger people are more prone to over education； married people are more prone to over education； the people with higher education level are more prone to over education. There is over supply of highly educated persons in China， we should reserve human capital to support and promote the industry upgrading and rational transformation of occupational structure rather than denying and suppressing the development of higher education to solve this problem.

Keywords： standard measurement； over education； under education

一、引言

近年來我國高校畢業(yè)生就業(yè)難、企業(yè)招工難現(xiàn)象同時存在且日益突出。2015年我國新生勞動力達到1500萬人，全年能夠提供的就業(yè)崗位僅1200多萬個，存在供求缺口；然而近10年我國人力資源市場總體求人倍率卻是從0.88∶ 1上升到1.04∶ 1， 顯示出市場崗位需求大于求職人數(shù)一方面是勞動力市場上的強勁需求，一方面是大量高學(xué)歷人才找不到工作，教育發(fā)展與市場需求是否匹配成為一個值得思考的問題，中國真的教育過度了嗎？社會上存在著中國教育過度是真命題還是偽命題的廣泛爭論，要清晰回答這一問題，合理測度我國的過度教育至關(guān)重要。endprint