Three Prospects of Automotive Technology in 2017

Text by Zijun Photos by Zijun & VCG Translation by Sonia

Professionals predict that environmental protection, smart technology, and Internet will be three themes of automotive technology in 2017. Whatever the connection is between vehicle emissions and haze, developing vehicles performing effi ciently is still the trend. When automated driving technology is yet to be tested, making comparatively mature smart technology aide systems available to the general public seems more pragmatic. Moreover, the Internet of Vehicles naturally follows.

1 New Energy Vehicles: Automakers Advance Business Planning

Based on an optimistic outlook to the future, worldwide automakers have accelerated their planning in the field of new energy vehicles. Statistics indicate that global sales of new energy passenger cars (electric and hybrid) made the historical 2nd high in November 2016, at approximately 80,000 deliveries and 39% growth. Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, and BMW i3 were the bestsellers. In China, the growth of new energy vehicles is even faster. During the past year, more than 507,000 new energy vehicles were sold, a big rise of 53% on the previous year.

Over 40 new models are expected to be launched in China in 2017, more than half of which are localised models, including notables such as the Audi Q7 e-tron, BMW X1 hybrid, and Porsche Panamera hybrid.

2 Internet of Vehicles: Possibly Achieved Soon

Internet of vehicles (IOV) is considered to be the basis and start of all development trends in the automotive industry. Whether it be high precision navigation or location-based service (LBS), all is built on the advancement of IOV technology. Even the topical automated driving has to rely on IOV technology and standardisation to improve driving safety. IOV can be realised in the exchange of wireless communications and information

between a vehicle and other bodies (vehicles, the road, pedestrians, and Internet, etc.). Without the Internet, the vehicle is isolated from all data; when connected, a huge network is formed.

According to Strategy Analytics, there were 17.5 million cars installed with in-dash IOV equipment worldwide in 2015. It is estimated to reach 75 million cars by the year 2023, and market share in China by that time will be 67%, the largest IOV in-dash market in the world.

3Automated Driving: the Pivotal Time

Based on the standard of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), automated driving ranges from level 0 to level 5, respectively: no automation, driver assistance, partial automation, conditional automation, high automation, and full automation. The leading international automakers are mostly at level 2. It is currently the pivotal time for technology upgrade and commercialisation. At CES2017 which just ended, makers from Europe, the US, Japan, and Korea all showcased their latest products of smart technology and automated driving. Internet mega powers led by Google made their presence in the exhibition, so did the service providers like Intel, NVIDIA and other Chinese companies. “The technology upgrade of CES mainly focuses on that of sensors and algorithms, such as improvement of camera algorithms and sensor integration technology of camera lenses, millimetre wave radar, and laser radar.” Said a business insider, who further predicted that some components related to smart driving may be initially ready around the end of this year and the beginning of the next. Take for example the surround view technology of a camera lens: it can be put into mass production this year.

2017汽車科技三大猜想

專業(yè)人士預測，環(huán)保、智能、互聯(lián)將成為2017汽車科技三大主題。不論汽車尾氣與霧霾有多大關聯(lián)，開發(fā)更節(jié)能的汽車仍是大勢所趨。而在真正的自動駕駛技術仍停留在實驗階段時，讓業(yè)已成熟的智能輔助系統(tǒng)更快走進千家萬戶，顯得更為現(xiàn)實。當然，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時代的“車聯(lián)網(wǎng)”也就是水到渠成的事。

1.新能源車：車企加速布局

出于對未來的樂觀預期，各大車企加速新能源車領域的布局。數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計顯示，2016年11月，全球新能源乘用車(純電動、插電式混合動力)市場銷量創(chuàng)歷史第二好水平，交付量接近8萬輛，其中日產(chǎn)聆風Leaf，特斯拉Model S和寶馬i3位居銷量榜前列。在國內，新能源車的增長速度之快更加令人始料不及，2016年新能源汽車累計銷售50.7萬輛，銷量比2015年大幅增長53%。

據(jù)不完全統(tǒng)計，2017年國內市場預計將有40多款新車陸續(xù)上市，國產(chǎn)車型占比達一半以上，其中還包括了奧迪Q7 e-tron、寶馬X1插電混合動力版、保時捷全新Panamera混合動力版等重量級車型。

2. 車聯(lián)網(wǎng)：有望率先實現(xiàn)

車聯(lián)網(wǎng)，是汽車行業(yè)未來所有發(fā)展趨勢的基礎和起點。無論是高精度導航還是LBS都基于車聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術的發(fā)展。即便是風頭正盛的自動駕駛，也有賴于車聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術和標準的普及，才能提升駕駛安全。車聯(lián)網(wǎng)可以實現(xiàn)在車—X（X：車、路、行人及互聯(lián)網(wǎng)等）之間，進行無線通信和信息交換。如果不聯(lián)網(wǎng)，車輛就是一個個獨立的數(shù)據(jù)孤島，聯(lián)網(wǎng)之后，就形成了一個大系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡。

從車聯(lián)網(wǎng)前裝設備來看，根據(jù)Strategy Analytics的報告，2015 年全球搭載前裝車聯(lián)網(wǎng)設備的汽車數(shù)量為1750萬輛，預計到 2023 年將達到7500 萬輛。其中，中國市場滲透率預計到 2023 年達到 67%，成為全球最大的車聯(lián)網(wǎng)前裝市場。

3. 自動駕駛：迎來關鍵時期

根據(jù)國際自動機械工程師學會的標準，自動駕駛分為0—5級，分別對應：完全手動駕駛、輔助駕駛、部分模塊自動化、特定條件下自動化、高度自動化以及全自動化的無人駕駛。走在前列的國際汽車廠商大都處于第2級的水平。目前，正是其技術升級突破、開啟商業(yè)化的關鍵時期。在剛結束的國際消費電子展上，歐、美、日、韓代表廠商均亮出最新智能化和自動駕駛產(chǎn)品，谷歌領銜的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭自不待言，包括英特爾、英偉達及中國廠商在內的配套商也重磅登場?！罢麄€CES展的技術提升還是集中在傳感器及算法領域的提升上，如攝像頭算法的提升拓展，以及攝像頭和毫米波雷達、激光雷達的傳感器融合技術?！蹦硺I(yè)內人士表示并預測，今年底到明年初，智能駕駛有一些零部件會初步成熟，比如攝像頭方面環(huán)視技術可能今年會放量。