鄧起東，徐錫偉，張先康，等

高被引論文摘要

被引頻次：175

城市活動(dòng)斷裂探測(cè)的方法和技術(shù)

鄧起東，徐錫偉，張先康，等

發(fā)生在城市范圍內(nèi)的直下型大地震可能產(chǎn)生巨大的災(zāi)害，包括高的振動(dòng)破壞和強(qiáng)的斷裂地表錯(cuò)動(dòng)。因此，

城市；活動(dòng)斷裂探測(cè)；方法和技術(shù)

來(lái)源出版物：地學(xué)前緣, 2003, 10(1): 93-103

被引頻次：137

城市綠地系統(tǒng)建設(shè)與城市減災(zāi)防災(zāi)

包志毅，陳波

摘要：自然災(zāi)害往往給城市造成重大損失。在城市綜合防災(zāi)減災(zāi)體系中，城市綠地系統(tǒng)占有十分重要的位置。城市綠地系統(tǒng)是城市規(guī)劃和建設(shè)中的重要組成部分，它不僅具有美化城市環(huán)境、凈化空氣、平衡城市生態(tài)系統(tǒng)、為城市居民提供休憩游樂(lè)場(chǎng)所等作用，同時(shí)還具有防震、防火、防洪、減輕災(zāi)害的功能。從城市綠地的定義和分類(lèi)入手，分析了城市綠地系統(tǒng)在城市綜合防災(zāi)減災(zāi)中的作用，并通過(guò)介紹和分析日本防災(zāi)公園的規(guī)劃建設(shè)，探討了城市避災(zāi)綠地系統(tǒng)的規(guī)劃方法。

關(guān)鍵詞：城市綠地系統(tǒng)；城市公園；自然災(zāi)害；減災(zāi)；防災(zāi)

來(lái)源出版物：自然災(zāi)害學(xué)報(bào), 2004, 13(2): 155-160

被引頻次：126

城市防震減災(zāi)能力評(píng)估研究

張風(fēng)華，謝禮立

摘要：首先論述了目前國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于城市地震災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的研究，分析了這些研究取得的成果和存在的不足。然后，提出了城市防震減災(zāi)能力的概念，采用人員傷亡、經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和震后恢復(fù)時(shí)間作為衡量城市防震減災(zāi)能力強(qiáng)弱的3個(gè)最基本的要。圍繞這3個(gè)基本要素，列舉出影響城市防震減災(zāi)能力的6大因素，在此基礎(chǔ)上，提出了城市防震減災(zāi)能力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的具體內(nèi)容。

關(guān)鍵詞：城市防震減災(zāi)能力；地震人員傷亡；經(jīng)濟(jì)損失；震后恢復(fù)時(shí)間

來(lái)源出版物：自然災(zāi)害學(xué)報(bào), 2007, 37(2): 129-150

被引頻次：112

城市活動(dòng)斷裂探測(cè)和地震危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題

鄧起東

摘要：城市范圍內(nèi)直下型活動(dòng)斷裂突發(fā)錯(cuò)動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的直下型大地震，直接威脅城市和人民生命財(cái)產(chǎn)的安全。城市活動(dòng)斷裂探測(cè)和地震危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)是為城市減災(zāi)服務(wù)的一項(xiàng)系統(tǒng)工程，也是活動(dòng)構(gòu)造研究面臨的一項(xiàng)新的工作。這一工作的核心是要解決城市范圍內(nèi)的斷裂定位、斷裂最新活動(dòng)、斷裂的深部背景、斷裂的地震危險(xiǎn)性和地面錯(cuò)動(dòng)危險(xiǎn)性及減災(zāi)對(duì)策。為了更好地理解這一問(wèn)題，作者用“有沒(méi)有、活不活、深不深，震不震，錯(cuò)不錯(cuò)，好對(duì)策”這6句話來(lái)表示其核心內(nèi)容。文中對(duì)這些問(wèn)題作了具體的說(shuō)明。

關(guān)鍵詞：活動(dòng)斷裂；地震危險(xiǎn)性；城市

來(lái)源出版物：地震地質(zhì), 2002, 24(4): 601-605

被引頻次：89

中國(guó)城市主要自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究

史培軍，杜鵑，冀萌新，等

摘要：本文依據(jù)災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)理論和中國(guó)自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，構(gòu)建了反映城市承災(zāi)體的綜合城市化水平（CL）指標(biāo)，并在此基礎(chǔ)上得到城市脆弱性水平指數(shù)?？紤]對(duì)城市具有結(jié)構(gòu)性破壞和易于造成交通災(zāi)情的主要災(zāi)種，即水災(zāi)、地震、滑坡—泥石流、臺(tái)風(fēng)、沙塵暴，構(gòu)建了反映城市主要致災(zāi)因子的綜合自然災(zāi)害強(qiáng)度（QC）指標(biāo)，并得到城市綜合自然災(zāi)害強(qiáng)度指數(shù)。據(jù)此，在定性分析的基礎(chǔ)上，通過(guò)半定量計(jì)算，將中國(guó)城市主要自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)劃分為高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、較高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、較低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)5個(gè)等級(jí)，編制了中國(guó)城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)圖，并對(duì)災(zāi)害鏈的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)作了進(jìn)一步的探討。

關(guān)鍵詞：綜合城市化水平；災(zāi)害脆弱性；綜合自然災(zāi)害強(qiáng)度；綜合自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)

來(lái)源出版物：地球科學(xué)進(jìn)展, 2006, 21(2): 170-177

被引頻次：82

數(shù)字減災(zāi)系統(tǒng)

謝禮立，溫瑞智

摘要：自然災(zāi)害是人類(lèi)可持續(xù)發(fā)展過(guò)程中面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。本文首先澄清了自然災(zāi)害與災(zāi)象的概念，分析了當(dāng)代自然災(zāi)害產(chǎn)生的特征，結(jié)合計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)的發(fā)展和人類(lèi)對(duì)自然災(zāi)害的認(rèn)識(shí)，提出了建設(shè)數(shù)字減災(zāi)系統(tǒng)的設(shè)想。數(shù)字減災(zāi)系統(tǒng)是一種以遙感技術(shù)、地理信息系統(tǒng)、全球定位系統(tǒng)、網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)等作為主要技術(shù)支撐，用數(shù)學(xué)和物理模型通過(guò)多維虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)研究災(zāi)象成因、發(fā)生機(jī)理、傳播規(guī)律和作用于人類(lèi)環(huán)境形成自然災(zāi)害全過(guò)程的信息化的計(jì)算機(jī)系統(tǒng)，它既可用于為人類(lèi)和社會(huì)對(duì)災(zāi)害作出反應(yīng)，進(jìn)行防震減災(zāi)行為和制訂決策的一種系統(tǒng)，也可以直接用于研究災(zāi)害本身，包括災(zāi)害形成及其防御的各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)。作為今后防災(zāi)減災(zāi)領(lǐng)域的一個(gè)重要發(fā)展方向，數(shù)字減災(zāi)系統(tǒng)具有滿足社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展急需，對(duì)科學(xué)發(fā)展的推動(dòng)作用大，科學(xué)創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)明確，內(nèi)涵豐富，技術(shù)路線可行而且具有高起點(diǎn)、高效率的特點(diǎn)。

關(guān)鍵詞：自然災(zāi)害；數(shù)字減災(zāi)系統(tǒng)；數(shù)字地球

來(lái)源出版物：自然災(zāi)害學(xué)報(bào), 2000, 9(2): 1-9

被引頻次：80

中國(guó)未來(lái)10～15年地震災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估

聶高眾，高建國(guó)，馬宗晉，等

摘要：中國(guó)是世界上地震災(zāi)害損失最嚴(yán)重的國(guó)家之一，全國(guó)50%以上的城市和70%左右的大中城市位于7度及以上烈度區(qū)內(nèi)。地震的發(fā)生給中國(guó)社會(huì)帶來(lái)了很大的危害和損失，主要的損失分布在以北京為中心的首都圈地區(qū)和云南－四川－陜西－內(nèi)蒙古相連的南北帶上，另外新疆的西北部也是地震損失較大的地區(qū)。所謂地震災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是指建立在各地防震減災(zāi)能力基礎(chǔ)上的未來(lái)地震損失估汁，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特征是具有一定的不確定性．從中國(guó)的實(shí)際情況來(lái)看，東部沿海地區(qū)、首都圈地區(qū)及內(nèi)陸的個(gè)別地區(qū)防震減災(zāi)能力較強(qiáng)，而未來(lái)地震危險(xiǎn)性則以中國(guó)西部地區(qū)和華北地區(qū)為主。通過(guò)對(duì)中國(guó)未來(lái)10～15年地震風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究，可以認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的東部地區(qū)雖然有一定的地震危險(xiǎn)性，但由于其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)，減災(zāi)能力很強(qiáng)，因此未來(lái)地震造成巨大損失的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較??；中國(guó)的中部（南北帶）和西部地區(qū)地震危險(xiǎn)性很大，同時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)欠發(fā)達(dá)，減災(zāi)能力較差，因此未來(lái)地震造成巨大損失的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很大。

關(guān)鍵詞：地震；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估；中國(guó)

來(lái)源出版物：自然災(zāi)害學(xué)報(bào), 2002, 10(1): 68-73

被引頻次：65

中國(guó)城市地震災(zāi)害危險(xiǎn)度評(píng)價(jià)

徐偉，王靜愛(ài)，史培軍，等

摘要：應(yīng)用中國(guó)歷史上發(fā)生的M≥4的6759條地震信息和2000年中國(guó)672個(gè)城市的有關(guān)信息，采用中國(guó)城市近源地震等效震級(jí)和城市地震災(zāi)害承災(zāi)體易損性指數(shù)CV，構(gòu)建了中國(guó)城市地震災(zāi)害危險(xiǎn)度指數(shù)WX，并編制了相應(yīng)的分布圖。研究表明：中國(guó)41.82%的城市歷史上發(fā)生過(guò)的近源地震。CV高值城市的分布與我國(guó)城市群、城市帶的分布并不一致。華北地區(qū)、臺(tái)灣島地區(qū)是我國(guó)城市高危險(xiǎn)度的高密集區(qū)，其次是福建廣東沿海、云南省、新疆天山山脈等地區(qū)。WX值在3.0以上的37個(gè)城市應(yīng)作為國(guó)家減輕地震災(zāi)害的重點(diǎn)城市。

關(guān)鍵詞：城市近源地震；承災(zāi)體易損性指數(shù)；危險(xiǎn)度評(píng)價(jià)；中國(guó)城市

來(lái)源出版物：自然災(zāi)害學(xué)報(bào), 2004, 13(1): 9-15

被引頻次：61

城市防震減災(zāi)能力評(píng)估研究

張風(fēng)華，謝禮立，范立礎(chǔ)

摘要：城市防震減災(zāi)能力本身是一個(gè)涉及因素眾多的復(fù)雜體系，對(duì)它的評(píng)估也是涉及到地震科學(xué)、社會(huì)科學(xué)和經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)的交叉學(xué)科問(wèn)題。本文首先提出了城市防震減災(zāi)能力的概念，把人員傷亡、經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和震后恢復(fù)時(shí)間等3個(gè)方面作為衡量城市防震減災(zāi)能力的準(zhǔn)則；圍繞這3個(gè)準(zhǔn)則，從影響城市防震減災(zāi)能力的眾多復(fù)雜因素中抽取出六大因素，并用一些簡(jiǎn)單、可測(cè)量的指標(biāo)來(lái)代表這六大因素，建立起城市防震減災(zāi)能力指標(biāo)體系；然后建立起指標(biāo)體系與上述3個(gè)方面評(píng)價(jià)準(zhǔn)則人員傷亡、經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和恢復(fù)時(shí)間的聯(lián)系；最后，用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析方法將3個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)準(zhǔn)則綜合成一個(gè)防震減災(zāi)能力指數(shù)。從而為城市防震減災(zāi)能力評(píng)估提供了一個(gè)較系統(tǒng)、完整的理論體系框架。理論體系的建立能夠在絕對(duì)上、定量上評(píng)價(jià)城市的防震減災(zāi)能力，從而指導(dǎo)城市進(jìn)行防震減災(zāi)決策。

關(guān)鍵詞：城市防震減災(zāi)能力評(píng)估；人員傷亡；經(jīng)濟(jì)損失；震后恢復(fù)時(shí)間；指標(biāo)體系；灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析；防震減災(zāi)能力指數(shù)

來(lái)源出版物：地震學(xué)報(bào), 2004, 26(3): 318-329

被引頻次：51

GIS在城市防震減災(zāi)應(yīng)急決策中的應(yīng)用

火恩杰，宋俊高，朱元清，等

摘要：將地理信息系統(tǒng)（GIS）技術(shù)應(yīng)用于城市防震減災(zāi)工作，建立了“上海市防震減災(zāi)應(yīng)急決策信息系統(tǒng)（寶山試點(diǎn)區(qū)）”。介紹了該系統(tǒng)的組成及各功能模塊的結(jié)構(gòu)和作用，并重點(diǎn)分析了系統(tǒng)的核心模塊：地震災(zāi)害快速評(píng)估子系統(tǒng)和地震應(yīng)急決策信息子系統(tǒng)。

關(guān)鍵詞：地理信息系統(tǒng)；防震減災(zāi)；震害快速評(píng)估；應(yīng)急決策

來(lái)源出版物：自然災(zāi)害學(xué)報(bào), 2000, 9(3): 15-22

被引頻次：292

來(lái)源出版物：European Journal of Operational Research, 2007, 179(3): 1177-1193

被引頻次：167

Multicriteria planning of post-earthquake sustainable reconstruction

Opricovic, S; Tzeng, GH

Abstract:A multicriteria model is developed for analyzing the planning strategies for reducing the future social and economic costs in the area with potential natural hazard. The developed multicriteria decision-making procedure consists of generating alternatives, establishing criteria, assessment of criteria weights, and application of the compromise ranking method (VIKOR). The alternatives are the scenarios of sustainable hazard effects mitigation, generated in the form of comprehensive reconstruction plans, including the redevelopment of urban areas and infrastructures, multipurpose land use, and restrictions on building in hazardous areas. The plans have to be evaluated according to the criteria representing public safety, sustainability, social environment, natural environment, economy, culture, and politics. The multicriteria model can treat all relevant conflicting effects and impacts in their representative units. The evaluation of alternatives is implicated with imprecision (or uncertainty) of established criteria, and the fuzzy multicriteria model is developed to deal with “qualitative” (unquantifiable or linguistic) or incomplete information. The application of this model is illustrated with the post-earthquake reconstruction problem in Central Taiwan, including the restoration concerning the safe and serviceable operation of “l(fā)ifeline” systems, such as electricity, water and transportation networks, immediately after a severe earthquake.

來(lái)源出版物：Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 2002, 17(3): 211-220

被引頻次：167

Longitudinal study of earthquake-related PTSD in a randomly selected community sample in North China

Wang, XD; Gao, L; Shinfuku, N; et al.

Abstract:Objective: This study longitudinally described ra res of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in two groups with different levels of severity of exposure to an earthquake in North China. The effects of diagnostic criteria on the frequency of detected PTSD were also examined. Method: Subjects were randomly sampled in two villages at different distances from the earthquake epicenter. A total of 181 and 157 subjects were assessed at 3 months and 9 months after the earthquake, respectively, for PTSD by using both DSM-IV and DSM-III-R criteria. The brief Version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment and three subscales of the SCL-90-R were also administered at both assessment points. Results: The village with a higher level of initial exposure to the earthquake and a higher level of postearthquake support had a lower frequency of PTSD than the village with a lower level of initial exposure and less postearthquake support. The rate of onset of DSM-IV PTSD within 9 months for the two villages was 19.8% and 30.3%, respectively. In both villages, the rate of onset of earthquake-related PTSD within 9 months was 24.2% by using DSM-IV criteria and 41.4% by using DSM-III-R criteria. The introduction in DSM-IV of a criterion requiring clinically significant distress or impairment in functioning for a diagnosis of PTSD was a major contributor to the lower rate of DSM-IV PTSD. Conclusions: PTSD may be as prevalent and persistent in disaster victims in China as in those elsewhere. Prompt and effective postdisaster intervention could mitigate the impact of initial exposure and reduce the probability of PTSD occurrence. Caution should be used in comparing rates of postdisaster PTSD identified by using different diagnostic criteria.

Keywords:Network intrusion detection; passive network monitoring; network monitoring evasion; domain-specific languages

來(lái)源出版物：American Journal of Psychiatry, 2000, 157(8): 1260-1266

被引頻次：130

Earthquake damage assessment of buildings using VHR optical and SAR imagery

Brunner, Dominik; Lemoine, Guido;Bruzzone, Lorenzo; et al.

Abstract:Rapid damage assessment after natural disasters (e. g., earthquakes) and violent conflicts (e. g., war-related destruction) is crucial for initiating effective emergency response actions. Remote-sensing satellites equipped with very high spatial resolution (VHR) multispectral and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging sensors can provide vital information due to their ability to map the affected areas with high geometric precision and in an uncensored manner. In this paper, we present a novel method that detects buildings destroyed in an earthquake using pre-event VHR optical and post-event detected VHR SAR imagery. The method operates at the level of individual buildings and assumes that they have a rectangular footprint and are isolated. First, the 3-D parameters of a building are estimated from the pre-event optical imagery. Second, the building information and theacquisition parameters of the VHR SAR scene are used to predict the expected signature of the building in the post-event SAR scene assuming that it is not affected by the event. Third, the similarity between the predicted image and the actual SAR image is analyzed. If the similarity is high, the building is likely to be still intact, whereas a low similarity indicates that the building is destroyed. A similarity threshold is used to classify the buildings. We demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the method for a subset of the town of Yingxiu, China, which was heavily damaged in the Sichuan earthquake of May 12, 2008. For the experiment, we use QuickBird and WorldView-1 optical imagery, and TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed SAR data.

Keywords:damage assessment; damage detection; data fusion; multisensor change detection; natural disaster; remote sensing; synthetic aperture radar (SAR); urban areas; very high spatial resolution (VHR) images

來(lái)源出版物：IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 2010, 48(5): 2403-2420 Transportation Review, 2007, 43(6): 673-686

被引頻次：130

Mufti-objective optimal planning for designing relief delivery systems

Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung; Cheng, Hsin-Jung; Huang, Tsung Dow

Abstract:The fatal earthquake on September 21, 1999 caused significant damages to Taiwan, which made the national government focus on strengthening relief systems regarding natural disasters. Disaster prevention, protection, and reconstruction are the major areas of focus to reduce human suffering and damage from disasters. A key point is the ability to enhance the distribution of relief materials effectively. In this study, we construct a relief-distribution model using the mufti-objective programming method for designing relief delivery systems in a real case. The model features three objectives: minimizing the total cost, minimizing the total travel time, and maximizing the minimal satisfaction during the planning period. The first two objectives pursue the efficiency goal, whereas the third pursue fairness-making best effort to ensure relief commodity delivery to all demand points. Results of an empirical study are presented and suggestions are given for future research.

Keywords:earthquake; multi-objective programming; natural disaster; relief distribution; relief systems

來(lái)源出版物：Transportation Research Part E-Logistics and

被引頻次：80

Development of an earthquake early warning system using real-time strong motion signals

Wu, Yih-Min; Kanamori, Hiroo

Abstract:As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to lives and properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zones offshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) can be a useful tool for reducing earthquake hazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages. An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with a few sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive S-wave part of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time will be useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such as rapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be also useful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown of hightechnological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guarding of computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach to EEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τcand a high-pass filtered vertical displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a given site, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τcand the peak ground-motion velocity (PGV) could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A P-wave trigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τcand Pd are computed. The earthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and the warning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10 sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last for tens of seconds.

Keywords:earthquake; early warning system; seismic hazard mitigation

來(lái)源出版物：Sensors, 2008, 8(1): 1-9

被引頻次：73

Seismic resilience of a hospital system

Cimellaro, Gian Paolo; Reinhorn, Andrei M; Bruneau, Michel

Abstract:This paper presents a comprehensive model to quantify disaster resilience of systems that is defined as the capability to sustain functionality and recover from losses generated by extreme events. The model combines loss estimation and recovery models and can be applied to critical facilities (e. g. hospitals, military buildings, etc.), as well as utility lifelines (e. g. electric power systems, transportation networks, water systems etc.) that are crucial to the response of recovery processes, decisions and policies. Current research trend leads toward the definition of complex recovery models that are able to describe the process over time and the spatial definition of recovery (e. g. meta-models for the case of health care facilities). The model has been applied to a network of hospitals in Memphis, Tennessee. The resilience framework can be used as a decision support tool to increase the resilience index of systems, such as health care facilities, and reduce disaster vulnerability and consequences.

Keywords:fragility; functionality; hospital; losses; recovery; resilience

來(lái)源出版物：Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2010, 6(2): 127-144

被引頻次：65

Real-time seismology and earthquake hazard mitigation

Kanamori, H; Hauksson, E; Heaton, T

Abstract:Recent advances in seismic sensor technology, data acquisition systems, digital communications, and computer hardware and software make it possible to build reliable real-time earthquake information systems. Such systems provide a means for modern urban regions to cope effectively with the aftermath of major earthquakes and, in some cases, they may even provide warning, seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the long term these systems also provide basic data for mitigation strategies such as improved building codes.

來(lái)源出版物：Nature, 1997, 390(6659): 461-464

被引頻次：57

Modelling seismic hazard in earthquake loss models with spatially distributed exposure

Crowley, Helen; Bommer, Julian J

Abstract:The prediction of possible future losses from earthquakes, which in many cases affect structures that are spatially distributed over a wide area, is of importance to national authorities, local governments, and the insurance and reinsurance industries. Generally, it is necessary to estimate the effects of many, or even all, potential earthquake scenarios that could impact upon these urban areas. In such cases, the purpose of the loss calculations is to estimate the annual frequency of exceedance (or the return period) of different levels of loss due to earthquakes: so-called loss exceedance curves. An attractive option for generating loss exceedance curves is to perform independent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment calculations at several locations simultaneously and to combine the losses at each site for each annual frequency of exceedance. An alternative method involves the use of multiple earthquake scenarios to generate ground motions at all sites of interest, defined through Monte-Carlo simulations based on the seismicity model. The latter procedure is conceptually sounder but considerably more time-consuming. Both procedures are applied to a case study loss model and the loss exceedance curves and average annual losses are compared to ascertain the influence of using a more theoretically robust, though computationally intensive, procedure to represent the seismic hazard in loss modelling.

Keywords:average annual loss; earthquake loss modelling; ground-motion variability; scenario earthquakes; seismic hazard; spatial correlation

來(lái)源出版物：Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2006, 4(3): 249-273

Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation

Parsons, T; Toda, S; Stein, RS; et al.

We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M=7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62+/-15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32+/-12% during the next decade.來(lái)源出版物：Science, 2000, 288(5466): 661-665被引頻次：173A dynamic logistics coordination model for evacuation and support in disaster response activitiesYi, Wei; Ozdamar, LinetAbstract:This paper describes an integrated locationdistribution model for coordinating logistics support and evacuation operations in disaster response activities. Logistics planning in emergencies involves dispatching commodities (e.g., medical materials and personnel, specialised rescue equipment and rescue teams, food, etc.) to distribution centres in affected areas and evacuation and transfer of wounded people to emergency units. During the initial response time it is also necessary to set up temporary emergency centers and shelters in affected areas to speed up medical care for less heavily wounded survivors. In risk mitigation studies for natural disasters, possible sites where these units can be situated are specified according to risk based urban structural analysis. Logistics coordination in disasters involves the selection of sites that result in maximum coverage of medical need in affected areas. Another important issue that arises in such emergencies is that medical personnel who are on duty in nearby hospitals have to be re-shuffled to serve both temporary and permanent emergency units. Thus, an optimal medical personnel allocation must be determined among these units. The proposed model also considers this issue. The proposed model is a mixed integer multi-commodity network flow model that treats vehicles as integer commodity flows rather than binary variables. This results in a more compact formulation whose output is processed to extract a detailed vehicle route and load instruction sheet. Post processing is achieved by a simple routing algorithm that is pseudo-polynomial in the number of vehicles utilized, followed by the solution of a linear system of equations defined in a very restricted domain. The behavior and solvability of the model is illustrated on an earthquake scenario based on Istanbul's risk grid as well as larger size hypothetical disaster scenarios.

secure communication protocols; sensor networks; mobile ad hoc networks; MANET; authentication of wireless communication; secrecy and confidentiality; cryptography

城市范圍內(nèi)的直下型活動(dòng)斷裂和隱伏活動(dòng)斷裂探測(cè)及地震危險(xiǎn)性和危害性評(píng)價(jià)是十分重要的。立足于城市環(huán)境復(fù)雜、污染重、干擾強(qiáng)的特點(diǎn)，文中介紹了城市活動(dòng)斷裂探測(cè)的主要方法，包括地質(zhì)地貌、地球化學(xué)和地球物理方面的多種探測(cè)方法。在地質(zhì)地貌方法中，最新斷裂活動(dòng)面的斷錯(cuò)地質(zhì)地貌制圖及針對(duì)斷裂新活動(dòng)和古地震研究的鉆探和槽探具有特別重要的意義，年輕地質(zhì)體和地貌面年齡測(cè)定是一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)；地球化學(xué)探查，尤其是多種氣體測(cè)項(xiàng)在隱伏斷裂初步定位中起到先鋒作用；在各種地球物理探測(cè)中，淺層地震勘探起著關(guān)鍵作用，而在探查活動(dòng)斷裂深部背景和孕震可能性時(shí)，各種深地震探測(cè)方法是十分重要的。在城市活動(dòng)斷裂探測(cè)這一新的工作中，必須更多地強(qiáng)調(diào)和更好地做到地質(zhì)地貌、地球化學(xué)和地球物理探測(cè)的結(jié)合，做到多種探測(cè)手段和勘探方法的綜合運(yùn)用，這樣才能做好斷裂定位、斷裂活動(dòng)性判定及分析斷裂孕震條件工作。