李強(qiáng)+魏巍+徐康寧

摘要

我國(guó)能源消費(fèi)面臨著滿足經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和降低能耗的雙重壓力，提高能源利用效率迫在眉睫。那么，提高能源利用效率能節(jié)約能源消費(fèi)量嗎？文章基于我國(guó)1992-2011年數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)我國(guó)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，結(jié)果表明，技術(shù)進(jìn)步所導(dǎo)致的能源效率提高能節(jié)約能源消費(fèi)量，但能源消費(fèi)的回彈效應(yīng)顯著存在，我國(guó)能源消費(fèi)的回彈效應(yīng)介于9%-75%之間。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文對(duì)能源效率的回彈效應(yīng)進(jìn)行擴(kuò)展，提出能源效率的回彈效應(yīng)包括技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)兩部分，理由是：根據(jù)現(xiàn)有能源效率分解方面的經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究，能源效率提高可以分解為兩種效應(yīng)，一是技術(shù)進(jìn)步效應(yīng)；二是結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整效應(yīng)。因此，能源效率的回彈效應(yīng)也可以分解為兩種效應(yīng)，即能源效率的回彈效應(yīng)是指通過(guò)技術(shù)進(jìn)步和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整可以提高能源效率，進(jìn)而節(jié)約能源消費(fèi)量，但技術(shù)進(jìn)步和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整也會(huì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)，從而對(duì)能源產(chǎn)生新的需求，部分地抵消了所節(jié)約的能源。最后，基于中國(guó)1992-2011年數(shù)據(jù)的測(cè)算結(jié)果表明，結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)要遠(yuǎn)大于技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)，技術(shù)進(jìn)步所帶來(lái)的能源效率提高同樣能節(jié)約能源消費(fèi)量，能源消費(fèi)的回彈效應(yīng)也顯著存在，由結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整所帶來(lái)的能源效率提高對(duì)節(jié)約能源貢獻(xiàn)不大，不同年份中結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)出較大波動(dòng)，絕大部分年份中的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整回彈效應(yīng)處于兩種極端情況，即大于100%或?yàn)樨?fù)值。

關(guān)鍵詞 能源效率；能源消費(fèi)；回彈效應(yīng)；技術(shù)進(jìn)步；結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整

中圖分類號(hào) F062.1

文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼 A

文章編號(hào) 1002-2104（2014）10-0064-04

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2014.10.010

能源效率的回彈效應(yīng)是指技術(shù)進(jìn)步可以提高能源效率，進(jìn)而節(jié)約能源消費(fèi)量，但技術(shù)進(jìn)步也會(huì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)，從而對(duì)能源產(chǎn)生新的需求，部分地抵消了所節(jié)約的能源。因此，能源效率的提高能否節(jié)約能源消費(fèi)量，取決于回彈效應(yīng)的大小。國(guó)內(nèi)外大量文獻(xiàn)對(duì)能源效率的回彈效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了研究，不同學(xué)者的研究結(jié)論存在較大差異，絕大多數(shù)文獻(xiàn)的測(cè)算結(jié)果在0-100%之間[1-2]，但也有學(xué)者的測(cè)算結(jié)果大于100%，即存在回火效應(yīng)[3-4]。綜合國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的研究可知，現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)只測(cè)算了能源效率回彈效應(yīng)的一部分，即技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)，而忽略了結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)能源效率的影響，尚未發(fā)現(xiàn)對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)進(jìn)行研究的文獻(xiàn)。實(shí)際上，能源效率提高可以分解為兩種效應(yīng)，一是技術(shù)進(jìn)步效應(yīng)，二是結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整效應(yīng)，與此相對(duì)應(yīng)，能源效率的回彈效應(yīng)也可分解為技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)。為此，本研究對(duì)能源效率的回彈效應(yīng)進(jìn)行擴(kuò)展，并對(duì)我國(guó)1992-2011年期間技術(shù)進(jìn)步和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)進(jìn)行測(cè)算。

1 能源回彈效應(yīng)測(cè)算模型

1.1 模型構(gòu)建

效應(yīng)大于100%，即存在回火效應(yīng)；有10年的技術(shù)進(jìn)步的

回彈效應(yīng)介于9%-89%之間，有7年的技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)小于零，即存在過(guò)度儲(chǔ)存效應(yīng)。結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)方面，有9年的技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)大于100%，即存在回火效應(yīng)，表明結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整并減少能源消費(fèi)量；有9年的技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)小于零，即存在回火效應(yīng)，僅有1998年和2011年的回彈效應(yīng)介于1%-100%之間，也表明結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)我國(guó)節(jié)能減排效果并不明顯。

4 結(jié)論與討論

提高能源利用效率能節(jié)約能源消費(fèi)量嗎？基于我國(guó)1992-2011年數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)能源消費(fèi)的回彈效應(yīng)測(cè)算結(jié)果表明：①由技術(shù)進(jìn)步所導(dǎo)致的能源效率提高確實(shí)能節(jié)約能源消費(fèi)量，但能源消費(fèi)的回彈效應(yīng)也顯著存在，絕大部分年份的技術(shù)進(jìn)步回彈效應(yīng)介于9%-75%之間，技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)出較大差異，其中1995、2003、2004和2011年的技術(shù)進(jìn)步回彈效應(yīng)大于100%；②能源效率的回彈效應(yīng)進(jìn)行擴(kuò)展，提出能源效率的回彈效應(yīng)包括技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)兩部分。結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)要遠(yuǎn)大于技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)，技術(shù)進(jìn)步導(dǎo)致的能源效率提高確實(shí)能節(jié)約能源消費(fèi)量，但能源消費(fèi)的回彈效應(yīng)也顯著存在，結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整導(dǎo)致的能源效率提高節(jié)能效果不大，不同年份結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)差異較大，絕大部分年份中結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的回彈效應(yīng)處于兩種極端情況，大于100%或?yàn)樨?fù)值。

提高能源效率有利于降低我國(guó)能源消費(fèi)量，其中技術(shù)進(jìn)步的節(jié)能減排效果最為明顯。因此，一方面應(yīng)加大對(duì)能源使用技術(shù)的研發(fā)投入力度，并建立起我國(guó)區(qū)域間能源使用技術(shù)的信息共享機(jī)制，提高能源利用效率；另一方面，由于回彈效應(yīng)的存在使得提高能源效率對(duì)節(jié)能減排效果有限，加快頁(yè)巖氣等非常規(guī)油氣資源和新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展顯得尤為重要。

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[5]劉偉，張輝.中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷和技術(shù)進(jìn)步[J].經(jīng)濟(jì)研究，2008，（11）： 4-15.[Liu Wei， Zhang Hui. Chinas Economic Growth and Technological Progress of Industrial Structure Change [J]. Economic Research Journal，2008， （11）： 4-15.]

[6]李仁君.中國(guó)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的資本存量測(cè)算[J].海南大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)： 人文社會(huì)科學(xué)版，2010，28（2）： 47-52.[Li Renjun. Chinas Three Times Industrys Capital Stock is Calculated [J]. Journal of Hainan University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition，2010，28（2）： 47-52.]

Estimation of Technological Progress and Structural Readjustment on the

Energy Consumption Rebound Effect

LI Qiang1，2 WEI Wei3 XU Kangning2

（1.School of Economics，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China；

2.School of Economics and Management，Southeast University，Nanjing Jiangsu 210096，China；3.School of Business

Administration，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China）

Abstract

Our countrys current energy consumption is faced with economic growth and reducing the energy intensity to meet the dual pressure， and it is urgent to improve the energy efficiency of energy imminent. So， improving the energy efficiency will save energy consumption？ The paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological progress based on Chinese data from 1992-2011， the result shows that： energy efficiency that brought about by improving technological progress can save energy consumption， but the rebound effect of energy consumption exists significantly， the rebound effect of energy consumption ranged from 9% to 75%. On this basis， the paper extended the concept of rebound effect of energy efficiency， we think that rebound effect of energy efficiency should includes two parts： one is the rebound effect of technological progress， and the other is the rebound effect of structural readjustment. The reason is that the improved energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects. One is the effect of technological progress， and the other is the effect of structure adjustment， so the rebound effect of energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects， The rebound effect of energy efficiency means that technological progress and structural adjustment can improve energy efficiency， and can save energy consumption， but technological progress and structural adjustment will promote the rapid growth of economy， and then have a new demand on energy that partially offset the saving energy. Finally the calculated results based on Chinese data from 1992-2011 shows that the rebound effect of structural adjustment is much greater than the rebound effect of technology progress， energy efficiency brought about by improving technological progress also can save energy consumption， the rebound effect of energy consumption also exists significantly， improved energy efficiency brought about by structural readjustment plays a little important role in energy conservation， the rebound effect of structural adjustment in different years shows larger fluctuation， and the rebound effect of structural adjustment is at the two extremes in most of the years， which is greater than 100% or negative.

Key words energy efficiency； energy consumption； rebound effect； technological progress； structural readjustment

[5]劉偉，張輝.中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷和技術(shù)進(jìn)步[J].經(jīng)濟(jì)研究，2008，（11）： 4-15.[Liu Wei， Zhang Hui. Chinas Economic Growth and Technological Progress of Industrial Structure Change [J]. Economic Research Journal，2008， （11）： 4-15.]

[6]李仁君.中國(guó)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的資本存量測(cè)算[J].海南大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)： 人文社會(huì)科學(xué)版，2010，28（2）： 47-52.[Li Renjun. Chinas Three Times Industrys Capital Stock is Calculated [J]. Journal of Hainan University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition，2010，28（2）： 47-52.]

Estimation of Technological Progress and Structural Readjustment on the

Energy Consumption Rebound Effect

LI Qiang1，2 WEI Wei3 XU Kangning2

（1.School of Economics，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China；

2.School of Economics and Management，Southeast University，Nanjing Jiangsu 210096，China；3.School of Business

Administration，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China）

Abstract

Our countrys current energy consumption is faced with economic growth and reducing the energy intensity to meet the dual pressure， and it is urgent to improve the energy efficiency of energy imminent. So， improving the energy efficiency will save energy consumption？ The paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological progress based on Chinese data from 1992-2011， the result shows that： energy efficiency that brought about by improving technological progress can save energy consumption， but the rebound effect of energy consumption exists significantly， the rebound effect of energy consumption ranged from 9% to 75%. On this basis， the paper extended the concept of rebound effect of energy efficiency， we think that rebound effect of energy efficiency should includes two parts： one is the rebound effect of technological progress， and the other is the rebound effect of structural readjustment. The reason is that the improved energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects. One is the effect of technological progress， and the other is the effect of structure adjustment， so the rebound effect of energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects， The rebound effect of energy efficiency means that technological progress and structural adjustment can improve energy efficiency， and can save energy consumption， but technological progress and structural adjustment will promote the rapid growth of economy， and then have a new demand on energy that partially offset the saving energy. Finally the calculated results based on Chinese data from 1992-2011 shows that the rebound effect of structural adjustment is much greater than the rebound effect of technology progress， energy efficiency brought about by improving technological progress also can save energy consumption， the rebound effect of energy consumption also exists significantly， improved energy efficiency brought about by structural readjustment plays a little important role in energy conservation， the rebound effect of structural adjustment in different years shows larger fluctuation， and the rebound effect of structural adjustment is at the two extremes in most of the years， which is greater than 100% or negative.

Key words energy efficiency； energy consumption； rebound effect； technological progress； structural readjustment

[5]劉偉，張輝.中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷和技術(shù)進(jìn)步[J].經(jīng)濟(jì)研究，2008，（11）： 4-15.[Liu Wei， Zhang Hui. Chinas Economic Growth and Technological Progress of Industrial Structure Change [J]. Economic Research Journal，2008， （11）： 4-15.]

[6]李仁君.中國(guó)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的資本存量測(cè)算[J].海南大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)： 人文社會(huì)科學(xué)版，2010，28（2）： 47-52.[Li Renjun. Chinas Three Times Industrys Capital Stock is Calculated [J]. Journal of Hainan University：Humanities and Social Sciences Edition，2010，28（2）： 47-52.]

Estimation of Technological Progress and Structural Readjustment on the

Energy Consumption Rebound Effect

LI Qiang1，2 WEI Wei3 XU Kangning2

（1.School of Economics，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China；

2.School of Economics and Management，Southeast University，Nanjing Jiangsu 210096，China；3.School of Business

Administration，Anhui University of Finance and Economics，Bengbu Anhui 233030，China）

Abstract

Our countrys current energy consumption is faced with economic growth and reducing the energy intensity to meet the dual pressure， and it is urgent to improve the energy efficiency of energy imminent. So， improving the energy efficiency will save energy consumption？ The paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological progress based on Chinese data from 1992-2011， the result shows that： energy efficiency that brought about by improving technological progress can save energy consumption， but the rebound effect of energy consumption exists significantly， the rebound effect of energy consumption ranged from 9% to 75%. On this basis， the paper extended the concept of rebound effect of energy efficiency， we think that rebound effect of energy efficiency should includes two parts： one is the rebound effect of technological progress， and the other is the rebound effect of structural readjustment. The reason is that the improved energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects. One is the effect of technological progress， and the other is the effect of structure adjustment， so the rebound effect of energy efficiency can be decomposed into two effects， The rebound effect of energy efficiency means that technological progress and structural adjustment can improve energy efficiency， and can save energy consumption， but technological progress and structural adjustment will promote the rapid growth of economy， and then have a new demand on energy that partially offset the saving energy. Finally the calculated results based on Chinese data from 1992-2011 shows that the rebound effect of structural adjustment is much greater than the rebound effect of technology progress， energy efficiency brought about by improving technological progress also can save energy consumption， the rebound effect of energy consumption also exists significantly， improved energy efficiency brought about by structural readjustment plays a little important role in energy conservation， the rebound effect of structural adjustment in different years shows larger fluctuation， and the rebound effect of structural adjustment is at the two extremes in most of the years， which is greater than 100% or negative.

Key words energy efficiency； energy consumption； rebound effect； technological progress； structural readjustment