文/維賈伊·戈文達(dá)拉揚(yáng)等 譯/薛洪君

While consumers generally dislike inflation because it erodes the purchasing power of their income, businesses desire a steady level of inflation because investments made in today’s prices yield higher profits and returns in the future.Governments also like low and steady inflation.With inflation, government’s long-term borrowing needs to be repaid at a lower real cost, and a nation’s real income keeps increasing as long as employment remains high and the improvement in worker productivity exceeds their wage enhancements.Prices of assets such as houses and equities1equities（股息不定的）普通股，股票。keep rising, attracting investors into the economy.The idea is that the economy keeps growing and everyone benefits.

消費(fèi)者通常都不喜歡通貨膨脹，因?yàn)樗屇闶杖氲馁?gòu)買力縮水；而企業(yè)會(huì)希求持續(xù)通脹，原因是以今天的價(jià)格做投資，未來(lái)能產(chǎn)生更高的利潤(rùn)和收益。政府也樂見小幅平穩(wěn)的通貨膨脹，此種現(xiàn)象下，政府的長(zhǎng)期借債只需以更低的實(shí)際成本償還，同時(shí)只要保持高就業(yè)率且工人生產(chǎn)能力的提高超過工資增長(zhǎng)，國(guó)家的實(shí)際收入就會(huì)持續(xù)增加。房產(chǎn)和股票等資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格保持上漲，吸引投資者參與經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。道理就是經(jīng)濟(jì)不斷增長(zhǎng)，人人都從中獲益。

Why inflation is so high right now

為何當(dāng)前通脹如此之高

2盡管對(duì)貨品和服務(wù)的需求已達(dá)到甚或超過疫情前的水平，供給卻沒有同步趕上。新冠肺炎相關(guān)供應(yīng)鏈上的問題依舊存在，眾多貨物積滯在船上或港口。航運(yùn)、貨運(yùn)和保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)用躥升為疫情前多倍水平。很多工廠依然停業(yè)或尚未恢復(fù)運(yùn)營(yíng)。工資持續(xù)上漲，企業(yè)仍難以招募到足夠的人才。到處缺少貨車司機(jī)，使得生產(chǎn)鏈?zhǔn)茏琛?/p>

2Despite demand for goods and services reaching or even exceeding prepandemic levels, supply hasn’t caught up.Covid-related supply chain issues persist, with many goods remaining stuck in ships or ports.Shipping, freight,and insurance rates have skyrocketed2skyrocket（數(shù)量、價(jià)格、費(fèi)用等）猛漲。to multiple times their pre-pandemic levels.Many factories remain closed or have not resumed operations.Wages keep rising, and companies are still struggling to hire enough talent.A widespread shortage of truck drivers is affecting production chains.

The risks of protectionism

3One likely outcome of these developments is that countries could turn protectionist, reversing decades of trade and specialization progress.For example, over the last 40 years or so, manufacturing moved away from the U.S.significantly.Meanwhile, California’s Silicon Valley became the global leader in new digital businesses ideas, and China’s Shenzhen region created an ecosystem for manufacturing electronic products.In addition,Brazil became the largest exporter of beef,China of steel, Canada of aluminium,Germany of cars, and the U.S.of radios and TVs and refined petroleum.

貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

3上述發(fā)展的一個(gè)可能的后果是，各國(guó)會(huì)走向貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義，使數(shù)十年間在貿(mào)易和生產(chǎn)專業(yè)化上取得的進(jìn)步發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)。例如，過去大約40年中，制造業(yè)大舉遷出美國(guó)。在此期間，加利福尼亞硅谷成為全球新數(shù)字化商業(yè)理念的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，中國(guó)深圳地區(qū)則建成了電子產(chǎn)品制造生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。此外，巴西的牛肉出口成為世界之最，中國(guó)的鋼鐵、加拿大的鋁、德國(guó)的汽車以及美國(guó)的無(wú)線電、電視和精煉石油等也都如此。

4換句話說，每個(gè)地區(qū)都開始專精生產(chǎn)自己具備相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)或規(guī)模效應(yīng)的商品。商品交叉往來(lái)于全球各地，經(jīng)歷各個(gè)不同的生產(chǎn)階段，再交付到消費(fèi)者手中。這種專業(yè)化生產(chǎn)與貿(mào)易降低了商品和服務(wù)的價(jià)格，使創(chuàng)新加速。只需想想新買的大液晶屏電視機(jī)的價(jià)格，你或許就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，它要比在1990年代買一臺(tái)小黑白電視通脹調(diào)整后的價(jià)格還低。這就是專精生產(chǎn)和全球貿(mào)易良性運(yùn)行的效果。各國(guó)專精生產(chǎn)幾項(xiàng)產(chǎn)品，其余的經(jīng)由通商貿(mào)易獲得，而不勉強(qiáng)去追求自給自足，各國(guó)境況反而更好。

4In other words, each region started specializing in producing goods in which it had comparative advantage or economies of scale.Goods crisscrossed3crisscross在……上交叉往來(lái)。the globe at various production stages before reaching customers.This specialization and trade lowered prices of goods and services and accelerated innovation.Just consider the price you recently paid for a large-screen LCD TV.You might find it to be lower than the inflation-adjusted price you paid for a small black-and-white TV in the 1990s.This was the outcome of wellfunctioning specialization and global trade.Countries are better off4better off處境更好的。specializing in a few things and trading the rest,instead of trying to be self-sufficient.

5Now there is a real danger that at least some of that progress could be lost or reversed, forever.Countries may revert to more protectionist policies and attempt to become more self-reliant.Imagine a scenario where each country attempts to have its own steel mills, produces its own cars, runs its own airlines,and has its own oilfields and refineries5refinery精制廠；提煉廠。.This would make goods and services more expensive.

5而今切實(shí)存在的危險(xiǎn)就是，至少上述某些進(jìn)步會(huì)喪失或倒退，不復(fù)再現(xiàn)。各國(guó)可能會(huì)重返更嚴(yán)重的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義政策，嘗試更加自力更生。想象一下：各國(guó)都試圖建立自家的鋼鐵廠，生產(chǎn)自己的汽車，運(yùn)營(yíng)本國(guó)航空線，自搞油田和煉油廠。這會(huì)讓商品和服務(wù)更昂貴。

What companies should do about inflation

6We don’t think inflation will be coming down anytime soon.Here are seven new strategies for companies to combat longer-lasting inflation:

企業(yè)針對(duì)通脹應(yīng)如何行動(dòng)

6我們認(rèn)為通貨膨脹不會(huì)在短時(shí)間內(nèi)減緩。以下是企業(yè)可用以對(duì)付更長(zhǎng)期通脹的七條新策略：

7首要的一點(diǎn)是，悉知你整個(gè)價(jià)值鏈條及其中易受供應(yīng)鏈危機(jī)沖擊的環(huán)節(jié)。也就是說，除了解你的直接供應(yīng)商外——還要搞清你供應(yīng)商背后的供應(yīng)商，諸如此類。即使是一個(gè)不起眼的子部件，也會(huì)交叉往返于全球，經(jīng)歷各個(gè)不同的制造階段。評(píng)估每一階段的供應(yīng)中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，研究可替代貨源，并保持庫(kù)存充足。保持精簡(jiǎn)的準(zhǔn)時(shí)制庫(kù)存的時(shí)代已經(jīng)過去了。

7First and foremost, understand your entire value chain and its exposure to supply chain shocks.In other words, go beyond learning about just your immediate supplier—figure out the supplier behind your supplier, and so on.Even a minor subcomponent crisscrosses the world at various manufacturing stages.Assess the risk of disruption at each stage, develop alternative sources of supply, and keep sufficient inventory.Those days of keeping lean, just-in-time inventories are gone.

8Understand your capital structure:your mix of equity shares, preferred shares, bank loans, short-term credit,supplier credit, and convertible debt.See which ones need to be repaid and when, which are affected by interest rate increases, and which could bring your business down if you default.Financial plans that worked during the last decade may be too risky for the coming years.Restructure your loans, obtain new lines of credit6line of credit貸放（或賒購(gòu)）最高限額。, and maintain enough cushion.

8弄清你的資本結(jié)構(gòu)：即權(quán)益股、優(yōu)先股、銀行貸款、短期信貸、供方信貸和可轉(zhuǎn)換債券的成分比例。注意有哪些需要償還和何時(shí)償還，哪些受利率升高的影響，還有哪種一旦違約會(huì)把你的生意搞垮。過去十年行之有效的金融計(jì)劃，如果未來(lái)幾年繼續(xù)沿用，可能風(fēng)險(xiǎn)過高。調(diào)整貸款結(jié)構(gòu)，獲取新的信貸額度，保有足夠的儲(chǔ)備金。

9要格外注意全球發(fā)展、國(guó)家同盟的重新調(diào)整和國(guó)際供應(yīng)商政策的變化。這些方面不可再視作理所當(dāng)然。你不能指望各國(guó)都采取合乎其長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)利益的理性舉措。政治、國(guó)際壓力和民族狂熱都可能沖昏理性經(jīng)濟(jì)思考，導(dǎo)致商業(yè)政策迅速轉(zhuǎn)變。

9Pay extra attention to global developments, realignment of countries’ alliances, and changing policies of international suppliers.These factors can no longer be taken for granted.You can’t expect that countries will act rationally in their longterm economic interests.Politics, international pressures, and national fervor could dominate rational economic thinking, leading to rapid changes in business policies.

10失去核心員工意味著數(shù)月喪失生產(chǎn)能力，需另花精力物色和訓(xùn)練接替者。因此，與員工時(shí)常溝通尤其重要，至少要知曉他們變動(dòng)工作的打算。在顧及員工個(gè)人需求方面宜更靈活，比如允許其居家工作，這或能提升他們的生產(chǎn)率。

10Losing a key employee means months of lost productivity and expenditure of additional efforts to find and train a replacement.Consequently, it’s especially important to be in constant communication with employees and at least be aware of their plans for switching jobs.Be more flexible in accommodating their personal needs, such as letting them work from home, which may boost employee productivity.

11The luxury of pursuing nonremunerative7nonremunerative不合算的，無(wú)償?shù)摹deas is now gone.It’s time to rationalize activities, customers, businesses, brands, segments, suppliers,manufacturing sites, and product lines,because short-term survival takes precedence over8take precedence over優(yōu)于；（地位或程度上）高于。long-term growth.Go back to the drawing board9back to the drawing board（失敗后）重起爐灶，從頭再來(lái)。to identify core areas and focus on those that provide the best returns for finite resources while holding the most promise for future.

11不能再奢望去追逐沒有經(jīng)濟(jì)回報(bào)的目標(biāo)?，F(xiàn)在是應(yīng)該合理規(guī)劃活動(dòng)、客戶、業(yè)務(wù)、品牌、細(xì)分市場(chǎng)、供應(yīng)商、生產(chǎn)場(chǎng)地和產(chǎn)品線的時(shí)候了，因?yàn)榻谏婵傄獌?yōu)先于長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)。從頭再來(lái)，確定核心領(lǐng)域，專注于以有限資源獲得最佳收益且最具前景的領(lǐng)域。

12這種時(shí)期的自然傾向是一味裁減，責(zé)成全面削降工資、開支和人員總數(shù)。此類舉措的顯見后果是士氣低落和更多有才能的員工離開。也可能會(huì)忍不住去削減諸如研發(fā)、職工培訓(xùn)和廣告等前瞻性支出。我們強(qiáng)烈建議不要采取這么魯莽的措施。相反，進(jìn)行更精細(xì)的剖解分析。設(shè)計(jì)新的評(píng)分卡，按照保留優(yōu)先次序?qū)顒?dòng)和業(yè)務(wù)種類進(jìn)行排序。評(píng)分卡必須考量當(dāng)前組織架構(gòu)的重點(diǎn)，同時(shí)為增長(zhǎng)與未來(lái)贏利能力預(yù)留空間。譬如它必須要包括：

?基于資產(chǎn)當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)價(jià)值而非歷史價(jià)值的投資收益

12A natural tendency during these times is to apply a universal axe and order an across-the-board10acrossthe-board包括一切的，全面的。cut of salaries, expenditures, and headcount11headcount（一組織中的）總?cè)藬?shù)。.An obvious outcome of such actions is low morale and further attrition of talented employees.It may also be tempting to start cutting forward-looking expenditures like R&D12R&D =research and development 研究與開發(fā)，研發(fā)。, employee training,and advertising.We strongly advise against such blunt actions.Instead, use a finer scalpel.Design a new scorecard to rank-order activities and business lines in terms of retention priorities.The scorecard must consider the current organizational priorities while leaving room for growth and future profitability.For example, it must include:

? Return on investment based on the current market values of assets, instead of historical values

? The cash operating cycle—that is,the time it takes between investing cash in inventory to recovering cash from the customer

? Risks and uncertainties, from supply to logistics to customers’ ability to pay

? Growth, a combination of total addressable market and achievable market share

?現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期——即從現(xiàn)款購(gòu)進(jìn)存貨到從客戶手中收回現(xiàn)金所需的時(shí)間

?從供應(yīng)到物流到客戶支付能力所涉及的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性

?增長(zhǎng)，即對(duì)可觸達(dá)市場(chǎng)容量和可實(shí)現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)占比進(jìn)行的綜合衡量

13There’s no sugar-coating13sugar-coat使（困難或討厭的事）變得易于接受（或有吸引力、令人愉快等） ；美化，粉飾。the fact that inflationary pressures and supply chain issues are real and here to stay14be here to stay〈口〉得到公眾的承認(rèn)；被普遍接受，成為習(xí)尚。.It’s important to develop an in-depth understanding of these problems and create a game plan to address these rapidly evolving challenges.■

13毋庸諱言，通貨膨脹壓力和供應(yīng)鏈問題切實(shí)存在且已被普遍接受。當(dāng)務(wù)之急是形成對(duì)這些問題的深入認(rèn)識(shí)，并擬訂行動(dòng)方案應(yīng)對(duì)此類急速演變的挑戰(zhàn)。 □