李怡瑩

Its the largest drop in life expectancy in at least 40 years.這是至少40年來預期壽命的最大降幅。

U.S. life expectancy just dropped by more than a year—the largest decline in decades—as a result of the sheer number of deaths from COVID-19， according to estimates from a new study.

The study researchers project that， due to the COVID-19 pandemic， the average U.S. life expectancy in 2020 will drop by 1.13 years， bringing it to 77.48 years， according to the study， published Thursday （Jan. 14） in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Thats the largest single-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years， and it would bring the countrys life expectancy down its lowest level since 2003， the researchers said.

Life expectancy in the U.S. rarely declines， and when it does， it makes headlines. Most recently， U.S. life expectancy declined by 0.1 years in 2015， 2016 and 2017—a trend that was attributed to rises in “deaths of despair，” including drug overdose and suicide. The new estimated decline due to COVID-19 is 10 times greater.

Whats more， the study showed even larger declines in 2020 among Black and Latino communities， which have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic. Overall， nearly 400，000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S.， according to the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard.

The study projected life expectancy for Black people will drop by 2.1 years， to 72.78 years， and life expectancy for Latino people will drop by 3.05 years， to 78.77 years. In contrast， the life expectancy for white people is projected to decline by 0.68 years to 77.84 years.

“Our study analyzes the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on life expectancy for the entire nation， as well as the consequences for marginalized groups，” study co-author Theresa Andrasfay， a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Southern California， said in a statement. “The COVID-19 pandemics disproportionate effect on the life expectancy of Black and Latino Americans likely has to do with their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts， in addition to receiving poorer health care， leading to more infections and worse outcomes.”

The researchers estimated U.S. life expectancy at birth using four scenarios—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic didnt happen， and three scenarios that used COVID-19 death projections for 2020 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The larger reductions in life expectancy for Black and Latino populations was in part due to “a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups，” study co-author Noreen Goldman， a professor of demography and public affairs at Princeton University， said in the statement. “These findings underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure among younger individuals who may not perceive themselves to be at high risk.”

Its important to note that life expectancy at birth is an estimate of how long a population of people would live if they were to experience the death rates seen in a given period （in this case， in 2020）， the authors said.

Although COVID-19 vaccines may significantly reduce transmission this year， the researchers dont anticipate life expectancy to immediately bounce back in 2021.

“While the arrival of effective vaccines is hopeful， the U.S. is currently experiencing more daily COVID-19 deaths than at any other point in the pandemic，” Andrasfay said. “Because of that， and because we expect there will be long-term health and economic effects that may result in worse mortality for many years to come， we expect there will be lingering effects on life expectancy in 2021.”

經(jīng)過最新的一項研究估計，美國的預期壽命僅下降了一歲多，卻是幾十年來最大的一次降幅，這是因為新型冠狀病毒肺炎造成人員的大量死亡。

根據(jù)1月14日發(fā)表在《美國科學科學院院刊》上的研究，研究人員預測由于新型冠狀病毒的影響，在2020年美國平均預期壽命將會下降1.13歲，達到77.48歲。研究人員表示這是至少40年來預期壽命最大的一次單年下降，這將會使國家的預期壽命降低至2003年以來的最低水平。

美國的預期壽命幾乎不下降，而當它下降的時候就登上了頭條新聞。以近幾年為例，美國的預期壽命在2015年、2016年和2017年都下降了0.1歲——這一趨勢歸因于“絕望死亡”的上升，其中包括吸毒過量與自殺。新的預估數(shù)據(jù)顯示，新型冠狀病毒肺炎導致的下降幅度要比這大10倍。

此外，這項研究顯示，2020年預期壽命在黑人與拉丁美洲人群體中下降幅度更大，這兩個群體受疫情影響尤為嚴重?？偟膩碚f，根據(jù)約翰霍普金斯大學病毒儀表板的數(shù)據(jù)，美國總共有近40萬人死于新型冠狀病毒肺炎。

研究預測黑人的預期壽命將會減少2.1歲，達到72.78歲，拉美人口的預期壽命將會減少3.05歲，達到78.77歲。相比之下，白人的預期壽命預計會減少0.68歲，達到77.84歲。

“我們的研究分析了超常死亡人數(shù)對整個國家預期壽命的影響以及給邊緣群體帶來的后果?！毖芯亢现?、南加州大學博士后特里薩·安德拉斯法伊在一份聲明中說道，“新冠疫情對黑人與拉美裔美國人預期壽命的影響與其人口占比不相稱，可能是因為這兩類人群的工作場所或者幾代同堂的生活方式使其暴露在更大風險中，外加醫(yī)療條件差，感染病例更多，后果更為嚴重?！?/p>

研究人員使用四種情景估計了美國出生時的預期壽命——一種情景是新冠肺炎大流行沒有發(fā)生，另外三種情景使用了健康指標和評估研究所對2020年新型冠狀病毒肺炎死亡率的預測。

對于黑人與拉美人口來說，其預期壽命的大幅度減少很大程度上是由于“在這些群體中有過多年輕人死亡”，該研究的合著者、普林斯頓大學人口學和公共事務教授諾琳·戈德曼在一份聲明中說，“這些發(fā)現(xiàn)強調了保護性行為和計劃的必要性，以減少年輕人群中潛在的病毒感染，這些年輕人可能不覺得自身并處在高風險之中?！?/p>

該作者認為需要注意的是，出生時預期壽命是人口在特定時期（本文為2020年）死亡率水平下存活的年數(shù)。

盡管今年新冠疫苗可能大幅降低病毒的傳播性，但是研究人員認為預期壽命的增加不會在2021年迅速反彈。

安德拉斯法伊說：“盡管有效的疫苗帶來了希望，最近美國由于新冠病毒而死去的人數(shù)比以往任何流行病的時候都多”，他還補充道：“正因如此，因為我們預計對健康與經(jīng)濟將會有長期的影響，這將會導致未來許多年更高的死亡率。我們預計這一影響在2021年仍會繼續(xù)持續(xù)下去?！?/p>