03OutsidePowers’OutlooksontheMiddleEasternSecurityGovernance:AComparativeStudy

AbstractThe Middle East is a major arena for great powers to safeguard their overseas interests, participate in global security governance and foster international discourses. This paper compares seven outside powers of the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, Japan, China and India, by exploring commonalities and divergences of their styles of Middle East security governance. These seven countries can be categorized into three types: geopolitically predominant powers, geo-economically predominant powers, and hybrid powers. The three categories of powers are different in their perception of security, interests, military and cooperation. In prospect, the suppliers of Middle Eastern public security goods will evolve from simply Western powers to the portfolio of established powers, rising powers and the hybrid powers. Promoting Western-led hegemonic governance to a UN-led inclusive governance is the basis for peace and security in the Middle East.

KeyWordsSecurity Governance; Outside Powers and the Middle East; Geo-economics; Geopolitics; International Security

AuthorsSUN Degang, Ph.D., Professor, Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University; Aml Ali, Ph.D. Candidate, Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University.

20AStudyonChina’sEngagementintheHealthGovernanceoftheMiddleEast

AbstractThe intertwining of public health-with traditional security issues constitutes a special challenge to health governance in the Middle East. In recent years, health cooperation has become an essential part of China’s deepened practical cooperation with Middle Eastern countries in social fields. In addition to traditional diplomatic interests, the needs of safeguarding overseas interests, improving national image, as well as developing its own health industry, have become a driving force of China’s engagement in the Middle East. In practice, China’s health cooperation with Middle Eastern countries can be categorized into three types. In short, the continuous deepening of health cooperation to promote comprehensive security in the region so as to provide policy tools for Middle East diplomacy will be the way forward for China's future participation in health governance in the Middle East.

KeyWordsPublic Health; Health Governance; Middle East Security; China’s Middle East Diplomacy

AuthorTANG Bei, Ph.D., Associate Professor, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University.

32India’sPursuitforLeadingPower:MiddleEastPolicyofModiAdministration

AbstractNarendra Modi has made major adjustments on India’s domestic and foreign policies since he took office. In terms of India’s Middle East policy, the Modi administration has significantly increased its attention to and investments in the region. Modi’s Middle East policy has been practiced in three aspects: rapidly promoting bilateral political relations, expanding economic and trade cooperation, and deepening security cooperation. Modi’s diplomatic acts in the Middle East are driven by pragmatic considerations and India’s historic ‘great power complex’. Modi’s Middle East policy is characterized by comprehensiveness, balance, caution and pragmatism. Overall, the Middle East Policy of Modi administration has indeed brought India closer to regional countries, has provided a certain guarantee for India to safeguard its interests, has enhanced India’s influences in the Middle East, and has promoted India to realize its ‘great power’ ambition.

KeyWordsIndia; Narendra Modi; Middle East Policy; Balanced Diplomacy; Pragmatic Diplomacy

AuthorsZENG Xianghong, Ph.D., Professor, Institute of Central Asian Studies and School of Politics and International Relations, Lanzhou University; CHEN Mingxia, Master Candidate, Institute of Central Asian Studies and School of Politics and International Relations, Lanzhou University.

46ContinuationandAdjustment:OnTrumpAdministration’sMiddleEastPolicy

AbstractUS President Donald Trump has gradually clarified and adjusted US policy to the Middle East since he took office. On the one hand, Trump goes further along Obama’s strategic contraction and offshore balancing. On the other hand, Trump has shown unilateralism and utilitarianism in the context of ‘America First’. The Trump administration first changed Obama administration’s avoidance and prudence toward the war, attacked the Syrian government's targets, and then announced the withdrawal of troops from Syria as soon as possible at the end of December 2018, reflecting the flexibility and variability of his Middle East policy. Thus the Trump Doctrine’ aims at maintaining US hegemony and maximizing its political and economic interests in the Middle East, by practicing a containment policy of Iran as its core on one hand, and adopting a clear and highlighted policy toward Palestinian-Israeli conflicts, Syrian crisis, counter-terrorism and energy issue on the other.

KeyWordsDonald Trump; U.S.’ Middle East Policy; Containment Strategy; Trump Doctrine

AuthorsLIU Chen, Ph.D., Lecturer, School of Arabic Studies, Beijing Foreign Studies University; MA Xiaolin, Professor, Zhejiang International Studies University, Xixi Scholar (Outstanding Talents).

61OnSyrianRefugeeIssueinJordan

AbstractJordan was soon affected by the continuous influx of Syrian refugees after the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011. At the early stage, Jordan opened its border to refugees. Thereafter, Jordan began to tighten its border to Syrian refugees. The influx of Syrian refugees further exacerbated Jordan’s long-standing economic burden and social problems, and increased its potential security risks. The Syrian refugee issue has shown a long-term trend in Jordan due to inadequate support from international society to Jordan’s management of refugee issue and the sluggishness of refugees’ resettlements and repatriations. The Syrian refugee issue has become a potentially significant factor that affects Jordan’s political stability and its socio-economic development.

KeyWordsJordan; Syrian Refugee; Political Instability

AuthorsYU Guoqing, Professor, Institute of West Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; CHEN Yao, Master Candidate, Department of West Asian and African Studies, Graduate School, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

77“RentierContract”andModernWelfareSocietyintheGulfMonarchies

Abstract‘Rentier contract’ plays a key role in state governance system of the Arab Gulf monarchies. Since the second half of the 20thcentury, the Gulf monarchies has gradually established their modern welfare society on the basis of ‘rentier contract’. For the six Gulf monarchies, this is not only the function of government to distribute oil wealth in order to provide public goods, but also the valve of social assistance in the Arabian Peninsula, as a form unity of historical heritage and development. The high welfare society has assured living standards of the people in the Gulf monarchies, as well as consolidated their respective governance basis. However, the ‘rentier contract’ has gradually been challenged thus brought more problems to their modern welfare society. The pressure has been increased on social governance in the Gulf monarchies. The Gulf monarchies now seek to develop their ‘rentier contract’ into “governance contract”, aimed at transforming and upgrading their modern welfare society, and strengthening their social governance.

KeyWordsGulf Monarchies; ‘Rentier Contract’; Welfare Society; Social Governance

AuthorTIAN Zonghui, Ph.D., Associate Professor, School of Politics, Law and History, Inner Mongolia University for Nationalities.

91PoliticalLegitimacyandtheFalloftheOmaral-BashirRegime

AbstractAfter almost 30 years in power, the Omar al-Bashir regime, as the first Islamist government in the Arab world and the longest ruling government in Sudan since its independence, collapsed in April 2019, which brought a series of impacts on the regional situation. Drawing on relevant theories of political legitimacy, this paper argues that ideology, ruling capacity and governance performance constitute three key interconnected legitimate resources to the Bashir regime. The root cause of the fall of the Bashir regime lies in the loss and finally depletion of the above three legitimate resources. Based on this hypothesis, the paper also makes a preliminary prediction of the future of Sudan.

KeyWordsSudan; Omar al-Bashir; Political Legitimacy; Political Islam

AuthorsZHOU Hua, Ph.D., Associate Professor, School of Middle East Studies, Beijing Language and Culture University; HUANG Yuanpeng, Former Correspondent to the Middle East, China Media Group.

104TransitionofthePalestineLiberationOrganization:ThePerspectiveofItsShiftingOrganizationalStructure

AbstractThe organizational structure of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) has been developed, which can be explained at three levels: the objective system, the departmental system and the power system. That means the PLO has transformed from an organization that focuses on a single goal to a composite-targeted organization, has established a separate departmental framework for the separation of powers and has shifted its power from concentration to dispersion. In the long run, the transition of the PLO’s organizational structure has a positive effect. However, the PLO still faces multiple constraints and becomes difficult to concentrate political resources, which will undermine its influence in Palestinian people and its role in Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. The overly large organizational system and the intricate internal contradictions also have hidden dangers of division of the PLO.

KeyWordsPalestine Liberation Organization; Palestine; Organizational Structure; Palestinian-Israeli Negotiations

AuthorSHU Meng, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University.