,

College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China

Abstract For the purpose of study,based on the data provided by the United Nations Comtrade Database in 2006-2016,and using the trade competitive advantage index,trade intensity index and trade complementarity index,this paper made an empirical analysis on the development of agricultural trade between China and four South Asian countries.The results show that the scale of agricultural trade between China and the four South Asian countries was further expanded,but the growth rate was stable and the trade share declined,but the development potential of both sides has not been fully explored.Generally,China’s agricultural products remain at a relatively disadvantaged position.Trade competitiveness and complementarity coexist.There is a large development potential and cooperation space for agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries.

Key words China,Four South Asian countries,Agricultural products,Competitiveness,Trade complementarity index

1 Introduction

With the aid of rich natural resources and unique geographical location,South Asia has close economic and trade relations with China through the Tea Horse Road and the Southern Silk Road more than 2 000 years ago.In 2013,President Xi Jinping proposed the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" strategy.Located in the intersection of the Belt and Road,South Asia is an important region for promoting the strategy.Besides,the proposal of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor further broadens the prospects for cooperation between China and South Asia and promotes the progress of bilateral economic and trade cooperation.For China and South Asia,the cooperation in agricultural products trade plays an important role in bilateral economic and trade cooperation.In the trade of agricultural products between China and South Asia,the trade between China and four South Asian counties (Pakistan,India,Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) takes up a dominant position,while China’s trade with other South Asian countries is lower than 1%,which is negligible.In recent years,with the signing of a series of agricultural cooperation agreements and the promulgation of trade preferential policies,the bilateral agricultural cooperation between China and the four South Asian countries has been continuously expanded,and agricultural products trade has developed rapidly.In 2005,China and Bangladesh signed cooperation documents on many fields including economy,technology and agriculture; in September 2014,China and Sri Lanka signedMemorandumofUnderstandingbetweentheMinistryofCommerceofthePeople’sRepublicofChinaandtheMinistryofEconomicDevelopmentoftheDemocraticSocialistRepublicofSriLankaonLaunchingtheNegotiationsforaChina——SriLankaFreeTradeAgreement,to promote cooperation in infrastructure construction and agriculture.In the same year,President Xi Jinping pointed out during his visit to the three South Asian countries: "the cooperation between China and South Asia is like a huge treasure waiting to be discovered and is worth longing".

Through searching the literature,it can be seen that,from the geographical perspective,scholars mainly studied the competitiveness,complementarity and development potential of agricultural products trade between China and Central Asia,BRICS and ASEAN countries.Li Ting[1]and Zhu Xinxinetal.[2]believed that the agricultural products trade between China and Central Asia is mainly complementary; Liu Xuejiao[3]pointed out that China and other BRICS countries mainly rely on inter-industry trade in major agricultural products; Feng Yang[4]pointed out that the trade between China and ASEAN countries in agricultural products has competitiveness and complementarity,but the complementarity is more obvious.In the agricultural products trade between China and South Asia,scholars mainly studied the agricultural products trade between China and India.Sun Zhilu[5]believed that there is a strong complementarity between China and India in agricultural products trade,and there is a big difference in the agricultural product structure between the two countries in the main export markets of the same agricultural products,and there is a close trade relationship in many types of agricultural products.In summary,at present,there are few related studies about the agricultural products trade between China and South Asia,and the conclusions and opinions are not comprehensive and not consistent.Through analyzing the current situation,structure,competitiveness and complementarity of agricultural products trade between China and South Asia,we intend to further understand the development of agricultural products trade between China and South Asia,to make up for the current research deficiencies,and to help the two sides make full use of the comparative advantages of their respective agricultural products to further broaden the cooperation channels of agricultural products,reduce transaction costs,and promote mutual benefit and win-win results in agricultural trade cooperation,and accordingly achieve more far-reaching development.

2 Study methods and data description

2.1Studymethods

2.1.1Trade competitive advantage index.The trade competitive advantage index is a commonly used indicator for studying international competitiveness.Considering both import and export factors,it can reflect whether a product manufactured by a country has competitive advantage over other same kinds of products produced by other countries.The specific formula is as follows:

TCik=(Xik-Mik)/(Xik+Mik)

(1)

whereTCikdenotes the trade competitive advantage index of the countryiin the productk,Xikdenotes the export amount of the productkof the countryi,Mikdenotes the import amount of the productkof the countryi.WhenTCik>0,the product has trade competitive advantage; the closer to 1,the higher the trade competitive advantage it has.When 0.6

2.1.2Trade intensity index.The trade intensity index refers to the closeness of trade between trading countries.Using the calculation method proposed by Brown and Kojima,we measured the closeness of trade between China and the four South Asian countries.The specific formula is as follows:

(2)

2.1.3Trade complementarity index.In order to further study the complementarity of agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries,we calculated the trade complementarity index between China and four South Asian countries based on the comparative advantage index.The specific formula is as follows:

(3)

2.2DatadescriptionOn the basis of theStandardInternationalTradeClassification(SITC) Revision 3 (SITC,Rev.3),the World Trade Organization defines agricultural products as: "food" (i.e.Codes 00,01,04 and 22 in SITC,Rev.3) and "raw materials" (i.e.Codes 21,23,24,25,26,and 29 in SITC,Rev.3)[6].According to the availability of data,with the reference to the trade classification code of SITC,Rev.3 in UN COMTRADE,and taking 2006-2016 as the sample period,we studied the competitiveness and complementarity of agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries.The specific classification of agricultural products is listed in Table 1.

3 Current situation and structure of agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries

From Fig.1,it can be seen that,in 2006-2016,the total amount of agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries rose with fluctuation from 1.793 to 3.416 billion US dollars,with an average annual growth rate of 6.66%.In 2006-2008,the total trade volume showed a rising trend,indicating that the inclusion of China as an observer of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 2005 promoted the development of agricultural products trade between the two sides.After a brief decline in 2009,it resumed a rising trend.In 2012,it reached a maximum of 6.392 billion US dollars,and then gradually declined.By 2016,the volume declined to 3.416 billion US dollars,because the political resistance from India and the armed conflict between India and Pakistan hindered the development of bilateral agricultural products trade between China and India.In 2006,the total trade volume of agricultural products between China and four South Asian countries accounted for 2.13% of China’s total trade volume of agricultural product import and export,and then fluctuated to 1.48% in 2016,and the trade share declined.

Table 1 Classification of agricultural products in SITC,Rev.3

Data source: UN Comtrade database.

In 2006-2016,China’s exports of agricultural products to the four South Asian countries increased from 479 million US dollars to 1.874 billion US dollars,with an average annual growth rate of 14.62%,and the imports increased from 1.314 billion US dollars to 1.542 billion US dollars,with an average annual growth rate of 1.61%.These indicate that the agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries remains at a low level,indicating the backward economic development level of Pakistan,Bangladesh and Sri Lanka,the India-Pakistan war,the trade protectionist strategy adopted by India and the backward infrastructure of the four of South Asian countries greatly hindered the development of the bilateral agricultural products trade.From the perspective of trade balance,China has been in an adverse balance of trade in 2006-2015; in 2016,it appeared trade surplus of 333 million US dollars,indicating that the comparative advantage of China’s agricultural products started getting improved.

In 2016,the top 10 agricultural products exported by China to the four South Asian countries were 05 (vegetables and fruits),26 (Textiles fibers and their wastes),03 (fish and preparations thereof),07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof),29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.),09 (mixed and oily fruits),08 (feedstuff for animals),23 (crude rubber),04 (cereals and cereal preparations) and 06 (sugar,sugar preparations and honey),the export of these agricultural products accounted for 97.28% of China’s total exports of agricultural products to the four South Asian countries.In 2016,the top 10 agricultural products imported by China from the four South Asian countries were 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes),42 (fixed vegetable oils and fats,crude,refined or fractionated),04 (cereals and cereal preparations),03 (fish and preparations thereof),05 (vegetables and fruits),07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof),29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.),22 (oil seeds and oleaginous fruits),24 (cork and wood),and 08 (feedstuff for animals),the import of these agricultural products accounted for 98.00% of China’s total imports of agricultural products from the four South Asian countries.

Data source: calculated on the basis of the data in UN Comtrade database,the same in Fig.2.

Note: the data in the Figure were selected from China’s report,but some data were not directly available,so the corresponding data of partner country were used,the same in Fig.2.

Fig.1AgriculturalproductstradebetweenChinaandfourSouthAsiancountriesin2006-2016

4 Competitiveness analysis of agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries

4.1Empiricalanalysisofthetradecompetitive(TC)advantageindexOn the whole,China,Pakistan and Bangladesh were net importers of agricultural products,and India and Sri Lanka were net exporters of agricultural products.In 2006-2016,the TC index of agricultural products in five countries showed a decline trend,indicating that the international competitiveness of agricultural products reduced.As shown in Fig.2,India’s agricultural products had the highest TC index,indicating that India’s agricultural products had a comparative advantage compared with other four countries,followed by Sri Lanka.Bangladesh’s agricultural products had the lowest TC index,indicating that Bangladesh’s agricultural products had no advantage compared with other four countries.

Fig.2TCindexofagriculturalproductstradebetweenChinaandfourSouthAsiancountriesin2006-2016

As listed in Table 2,in 2016,China’s agricultural products 03 (fish and preparations thereof),05 (vegetables and fruits),07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof),and 29 (Crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s) had strong comparative advantage,while 00 (live animals) and 06 (sugar,sugar preparations and honey) had weak comparative advantage,and other agricultural products had different degrees of comparative disadvantage.Pakistan’s agricultural products 01 (meat and meat preparations),03 (fish and preparations thereof),04 (cereals and cereal preparations) and 06 (sugar,sugar preparations and honey) had strong comparative advantage,while others agricultural products had different degrees of comparative disadvantages,of which 24 (cork and wood),25 (pulp and waste paper) and 42 (fixed vegetable oils and fats,crude,refined or fractionated) had strong comparative disadvantage.The India’s agricultural products 00 (live animals),01 (meat and meat preparations),02 (dairy products and birds’ eggs),03 (fish and preparations thereof),04 (cereals and cereal preparations),12 (tobacco and tobacco manufactures),22 (oil seeds and oleaginous fruits),and 41 (animal oils and fats) had very strong comparative advantage,especially agricultural products 01 (meat and meat preparations) had complete comparative advantage,07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof),09 (mixed and oily fruits),and 29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.) had strong comparative advantage,while agricultural products 06 (sugar,sugar preparations and honey),08 (feedstuff for animals),and 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes) had weak comparative advantage.Bangladesh’s agricultural products 03 (fish and preparations thereof) and 12 (tobacco and tobacco manufactures) had very strong competitiveness,while agricultural products 11 (beverages) had weak comparative advantage,and the TC index of all other agricultural products were lower than 0,indicating that most of Bangladesh’s agricultural products were not competitive,and agricultural products 00 (live animals),25 (pulp and waste paper) and 41 (animal oils and fats) had strong comparative disadvantage.Sri Lanka’s agricultural products 07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof) and 25 (pulp and waste paper) had very strong comparative advantage,and agricultural products 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes) had strong comparative advantage,while agricultural products 09 (mixed and oily fruits) and 12 (tobacco and tobacco manufactures) had weak comparative advantage,indicating that most of Sri Lanka’s agricultural products had disadvantage in international competition.

Table 2 TC index of agricultural products of China and four South Asian countries in 2016

4.2Empiricalanalysisoftradeintensityindex(TII) The TII of agricultural products trade between China and the four South Asian countries was listed in Table 3.According to the study of export trade of Chinese agricultural products,Pakistan and Sri Lanka were important partners in China’s agricultural exports.The TII of both sides has shown a rising trend to a certain extent,from the initial lower than 1 to higher than 1,indicating that the trade links between the two sides have become closer.Specifically,Sri Lanka gradually became an important agricultural products export market from TII of 0.79 in 2006 to TII of 1.81 in 2016,indicating that the export ratio of China’s agricultural products to Sri Lanka was higher than that to the world.In 2006-2016,the TII of China’s exports to Bangladesh was lower than 1,indicating that Bangladesh was not an important target market for China’s agricultural export.However,in recent decade,the TTI rose with fluctuation,indicating that the importance of the Bangladesh market to China was constantly increasing and the Bangladesh market had great development potential.The TII of China’s export to India has been lower than 1 since 2009 and it showed a decline trend,indicating that the agricultural products trade between two sides became looser,and the importance of India as a target market for China’s agricultural products export has been declining.

According to the study of the import trade of Chinese agricultural products,Bangladesh has gradually become China’s important import market of agricultural products,while Pakistan and Sri Lanka were not important partners of China’s agricultural product import,but the TII showed a rising trend,especially Pakistan,the TTI rose from 0.36 in 2006 to 0.88 in 2016,indicating that the import dependence of China on Pakistan has been increasing year by year.By comparison,the import dependence of China on India declined,both the China’ export based TII and China’s import based TII dropped to below 1,indicating that the agricultural products trade between China and India gradually became loose,and the importance of India as a target market for agricultural products trade gradually declined.

Table 3 The TII of agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries in 2006-2016

The TII of agricultural products trade between China and the four South Asian countries in 2016 was listed in Table 4.In terms of the export of China’s agricultural products,China’s export dependence on Pakistan was the greatest in agricultural products 04 (cereals and cereal preparations),and China had a close trade relation with Pakistan in agricultural products 06 (sugar,sugar preparations and honey),07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof),08 (feedstuff for animals),09 (mixed and oily fruits),21 (hides,skins and fur skins,raw),23 (crude rubber),24 (cork and wood),26 (textiles fibers and their wastes),29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.),and 43 (processed animal and vegetable oils and fats).China had a close trade relation with India in agricultural products 08 (feedstuff for animals),09 (mixed and oily fruits),12 (tobacco and tobacco manufactures),21 (hides,skins and fur skins,raw),26 (textiles fibers and their wastes),and 41 (animal oils and fats).

Table 4 The TII of agricultural products of China and four South Asian countries in 2016

Note: "-" denotes no available data.

China had a close trade relation with Bangladesh in agricultural products 05 (vegetables and fruits),07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof),09 (mixed and oily fruits),23 (crude rubber),29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.),and 43 (processed animal and vegetable oils and fats).Sri Lanka was the important target export market of China’s agricultural products 03 (fish and preparations thereof),07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof),08 (feedstuff for animals),21 (hides,skins and fur skins,raw),and 25 (pulp and waste paper).

In terms of the import trade of China’s agricultural products,the trade between China and Pakistan was low in agricultural products 06 (sugar,sugar preparations and honey),07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof),09 (mixed and oily fruits),23 (crude rubber),and 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes).China can bring into play the comparative advantages in these agricultural products,export such agricultural products to Pakistan as much as possible,and further deepen bilateral economic and trade cooperation.Besides,Pakistan was a major importer of China’s agricultural products 03 (fish and preparations thereof),04 (cereals and cereal preparations),05 (vegetables and fruits),08 (feedstuff for animals),21 (hides,skins and fur skins,raw),29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.),and 41 (animal oils and fats).The trade between China and India was less competitive and complementary in agricultural products 08 (feedstuff for animals),09 (mixed and oily fruits),12 (tobacco and tobacco manufactures),and 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes).China imported agricultural products 21 (hides,skins and fur skins,raw),24 (cork and wood),41 (animal oils and fats),and 42 (fixed vegetable oils and fats,crude,refined or fractionated) from India.China and Bangladesh had a close trade relation in agricultural products 03 (fish and preparations thereof),22 (oil seeds and oleaginous fruits),24 (cork and wood),and 29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.).The TII of China’s import agricultural products from Sri Lanka was generally low,only the TII of agricultural products 07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof) and 29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.) was greater than 1.The competitiveness of agricultural trade between China and Sri Lanka was relatively weak,indicating that there is still a large space for cooperation in agricultural products trade.

5 Complementarity analysis of agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries

The CA index of agricultural products trade between China and the four South Asian countries was listed in Table 5.The CA index of China’s exports to Pakistan was lower than 1,and it declined with fluctuation.However,the CA index of China’s imports from Pakistan was greater than 1,and it rose with fluctuation,indicating that China’s export based China-Pakistan agricultural products trade had no obvious complementarity,but China’s import based China-Pakistan agricultural products trade had obvious complementarity,the complementarity shows a rising trend,and there is still a large space for China to import agricultural products from Pakistan.The CA index of China’s export to India was lower than 0.5,but the CA index of China’s import from India was greater than 1 (except in 2009) and showed a rising trend with fluctuation,indicating that China’s huge agricultural product consumption market has made China become an important export partner for India; India is not an important target export market for China,and China still has great potential for exporting agricultural products to India.In the agricultural products trade between China and Bangladesh,both China based export trade complementarity index and import trade complementarity index were lower than 1,indicating that the trade complementarity index of agricultural products between China and Bangladesh was not high,but the decline rate of CA index of China’s export of agricultural products was slower than that of China’s import of agricultural products,indicating that China still has certain comparative advantage in the agricultural products trade with Bangladesh.In the agricultural products trade between China and Sri Lanka,the CA index of China’s export of agricultural products was lower than that of China’s import of agricultural products,and the import trade complementarity index fluctuated at 3,indicating that the import of China from Sri Lanka to was relatively stable and there is still a large development space.

The CA index of agricultural products trade between China and the four South Asian countries was listed in Table 6.In the agricultural products trade between China and Pakistan,the agricultural product classification with the highest China based export trade complementarity index was 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes),followed by 05 (vegetables and fruits),29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.),and 07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof),while there was complementarity in the agricultural products 04 (cereals and cereal preparations),26 (textiles fibers and their wastes),and 43 (processed animal and vegetable oils and fats) between China and Pakistan.For both China’s export based trade and China’s import based trade,there was strong trade complementarity in agricultural products 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes),but the trade complementarity index calculated based on China’s export was much greater than that calculated based on China’s import,indicating that China had relatively comparative advantage in the export of textiles fibers and their wastes.In the agricultural products trade between China and India,China had trade complementarity in the export of agricultural products 05 (vegetables and fruits),06 (sugar,sugar preparations and honey),26 (textiles fibers and their wastes),and 29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.),and had trade complementarity in the import of agricultural products 01 (meat and meat preparations),03 (fish and preparations thereof),22 (oil seeds and oleaginous fruits),and 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes).It can be known that for both the index calculated on the basis of China’s export and calculated on the basis of China’s import,there was obvious complementarity in the agricultural products 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes) between China and India.The two sides have comparative advantage in the export of textiles fibers and their wastes,and there is trade competition.

Table 5 The complementarity index of agricultural products trade between China and four South Asian countries in 2006-2016

Table 6 Complementarity index of agricultural products trade between of China and four South Asian countries in 2016

Calculated on the basis of China’s export of agricultural products,the agricultural product classification with the highest China based export trade complementarity index between China and Bangladesh was 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes),followed by 06 (sugar,sugar preparations and honey),05 (vegetables and fruits),and 08 (feedstuff for animals),and there was no complementarity in other agricultural products.There was complementarity in the agricultural products 03 (fish and preparations thereof),05 (vegetables and fruits),06 (sugar,sugar preparations and honey),23 (crude rubber),26 (textiles fibers and their wastes),and 29 (crude animal and vegetable materials,n.e.s.) between China and Sri Lanka.Calculated on the basis of China’s import of agricultural products,the agricultural product classification with the highest China based export trade complementarity index between China and Bangladesh was 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes),followed by 03 (fish and preparations thereof),12 (tobacco and tobacco manufactures),and 22 (oil seeds and oleaginous fruits,and there was no complementarity in other products,while there was trade competition in agricultural products 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes) between China and Bangladesh.In addition,there was trade complementarity in the agricultural products 07 (coffee,tea,cocoa,spices,and manufactures thereof),23 (crude rubber),25 (pulp paper and waste paper),and 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes) between China and Sri Lanka,and there was trade competition in the agricultural products 23 (crude rubber) and 26 (textiles fibers and their wastes) between China and Sri Lanka.

6 Conclusions and recommendations

6.1Conclusions(i) The scale of agricultural trade between China and the four South Asian countries is further expanded,and there is a large development potential and development space.However,the share of bilateral agricultural products trade has declined,indicating that the development potential of bilateral agricultural products trade needs further development.

(ii) In terms of trade competitive advantage,China is generally at a relatively disadvantaged position.China’s agricultural products with strong comparative export advantages are mainly fish and fish products,vegetables and fruits,coffee,tea,cocoa powder and spices,and unprocessed animals and plants.In the agricultural products trade between China and single economy of four South Asian countries,some agricultural products have competition,but the complementarity is still the main part.Specifically,Pakistan and Sri Lanka are important partners of China’s agricultural products export; the importance of the Bangladesh market to China is growing and has great development potential; the importance of India as a target market for China’s agricultural products exports is declining.According to the study of the import trade of Chinese agricultural products,Bangladesh has gradually become China’s important import market of agricultural products,while Pakistan and Sri Lanka are not important partners of China’s agricultural product import,but the import dependence of China on them is increasing year by year; the agricultural products trade between China and India gradually becomes loose.

(iii) China’s export based China-Pakistan agricultural products trade has no obvious complementarity,but China’s import based China-Pakistan agricultural products trade has obvious complementarity,the complementarity shows a rising trend,and there is still a large space for China to import agricultural products from Pakistan.China’s huge agricultural product consumption market has made China become an important export partner for India; India is not an important target export market for China.The trade complementarity of agricultural products between China and Bangladesh is not high.China’s export based China-Sri Lanka agricultural products trade has no obvious complementarity,but China’s import based China-Sri Lanka agricultural products trade has obvious complementarity.

6.2Recommendations(i) Establishing the interconnection with the aid of policy advantages.Since the inclusion of China as a member of the SAARC in 2005,it has promoted the development of agricultural products trade between China and the four South Asian countries,and the scale of agricultural products trade has further expanded.Therefore,on the one hand,China should develop its relations with the four South Asian countries more comprehensively,consolidate its all-weather strategic partnership with Pakistan,alleviate India’s concerns and negative attitudes towards China,and attach importance to political diplomacy with small countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka,and establish mutual trust and friendly diplomatic relations to lay a solid political foundation for the development of agricultural products trade.On the other hand,as a member of the SAARC,China should make full use of the existing multilateral cooperation framework of SAARC and actively negotiate and cooperate with the four South Asian countries to promote infrastructure construction and establish interconnection with the South Asian countries.It is recommended to broaden the cooperation platform for the transportation departments of the two sides,promote the interconnection projects in the fields of highways,aviation,railways and ports,strengthen the technical output of agricultural irrigation system construction,and attach great importance to the water and electricity and other people’s livelihood assistance projects,so as to promote mutual communication,reduce the transaction costs,and promote the development of agricultural products trade.

(ii) Constantly expanding the scale of bilateral trade cooperation taking the Belt and Road as the opportunity.The construction of Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road brings new development opportunity for the cooperation in agricultural products trade between China and the four South Asian countries.China should grasp this strategic opportunity,and attach great importance to the cooperation in agricultural products trade with the four South Asian countries,to expand the scope of trade cooperation.Besides,in the cooperation with the four South Asian countries,it is recommended to make appropriate planning in accordance with actual situations of each country.Since there are both competitiveness and complementarity in the agricultural products trade between China and the four South Asian countries,it is recommended to give full play such advantage potential,increase the trade volume,and optimize the trade structure.For example,in terms of the trade between industries,it is recommended to increase the export of China’s vegetables and fruits,and increase the import of Pakistan’s cereal and cereal products,India’s textile fiber products,Bangladesh’s tobacco and tobacco products,and Sri Lanka’s coffee,tea,cocoa powder and spices.In the competitive agricultural products,it is recommended to raise the trade level within the industry.For example,both China and the four South Asian countries have comparative advantages in the textile fiber products.Thus,it is recommended to subdivide product categories,expand the trade volume of similar but heterogeneous agricultural products,to promote the development of the cooperation in the bilateral agricultural products trade.

(iii) Fully exploring the trade complementarity and seeking new trade growth point.The agricultural products trade between China and the four South Asian countries is mainly complementary.However,the trade volume increases slowly in recent years,indicating that the complementarity is not fully brought into play.In future,it is recommended to further expand the scope and volume of complementary agricultural products trade,strengthen the trade cooperation in vegetables,fruits,and unprocessed animals and plants,for instance.In addition,it is recommended to increase the input of agricultural technology research and development funds,increase the science and technology content and added value,strengthen the difference in agricultural products,and promote the change from competitive agricultural products to complementary agricultural products.For example,it is recommended to perform deep processing of fish and fish products,and textile fibers,to raise the cooperation level in the trade of such agricultural products.