Chen Fubin, Shan Bo, Cheng Shuailong, Li Zhihao, Nusseilil Mulzabek

（China University of Petroleum（East China）, Qingdao 266000, China）

Abstract：Climate change is not a hot point worldwide, for it will generate various in fluences on the development of a nation,including social, economic and political problems. And for developing countries, the risk is relative high.

Key words：climate change; fragile state; AHP; EWM; grey relation analysis

1 Introduction

Climate change is now being attached much importance,for it will generate various influence including droughts,shrinking glaciers, sea level rise and so on. Meanwhile, the realization of climate change varies in different regions,which makes it much difficult to deal with the problem. Due to the technic difficulties and huge cost of settling climate change, governments have to invest more in this field,and they may lose support of people if they cannot tackle the problem properly, which means it will strengthen the fragility of a nation.

2 Evaluation Model based on AHP

And in order to make the model more objective,we divide these five classes into seventeen more precise indicators as showing in the figure below, and assign different weights to these indicators.

Where: ωiis the weight coefficient of fi(i=1,2,3,4,5)

ωijis the weight coefficient of xij(i=1,2,3,4,5),(j=1,2,3,4,5,6)

fiis the first level fragility indicators，xijis the second level fragility indicators

Then we get the Evaluation Model:

3 Weight calculation through AHP

AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) is conducted to attain values of these weight coefficients in an evaluation system.

So if the fragility index of a speci fic nation i was lower than FL(Fi＜FL), then we should consider that nation i was under fragility, otherwise(Fi＜FL) we should consider nation i is much stable.

Then we use Matlab to conduct the calculation, and attain its λmax=5.386 5and corresponding feature vector t=(-0.045 2,-0.239 7，-0.808 1,-0.224 3,-0.110 8)T, thus we can calculate CR=0.086 3＜0.1, which means the judgement matrix has a good consistency.

Conducting the same procedure we get judgement matrixes of the second layer:

So the Threshold of State Fragility Index is: FL=2.598 7

3.1 Model implication in Syria

The precipitation in Syria diminishes year by year due to the climate change, and it leads to the exhaustion of its surface water, which causes the serious drought. Stagnation of agricultural production, death of crops and livestock in large scale, and damage of economic development,the negative effects of climate change can be witnessed obviously. This severe disaster has led to the soaring price, food shortage and lack of all kinds of resources. The unsatisfying performance of the government has result in the flee of many people, which triggers a refugee crisis.

In conclusion, all these effects caused by climate change have eventually led to armed conflicts, and even civil war.Syria is now moving towards a highly vulnerable country.

3.2 Model implication in Japan

Influenced by natural conditions, such as geographical environment, climate change has much more influence on Japan than other developed countries in the world, so we chooses Japan as the example to study the measures can be taken to deal with climate change. The measures are as follows:

Set up climate class, Climate Warming Information Center, Climate Research Department, and so on.

Promulgate the Law of Promoting Global Climate Warming Countermeasures, the formulation of Environmental statehood strategy 21st Century to promote the use of solar energy, nuclear energy and other new power generation. Participate in climate change activities related to the United Nations Framework Treaty on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol and other treaties.

Japan, in order to prevent its becoming a vulnerable country, intervened in many aspects of the country and invested considerable financial resources, according to the 1995—2011 Japan’s input in that regard (see appendix), to forecast Japan’s next investment

According to the actual situation analysis, two fitting prediction of the best effect, we can get Japan in 2017 intervention costs about 6469 Billion dollars.