Zheng Changde

Abstract：According to the monitoring and analyses of rural poor populations coupled with the poverty incidence rate from 2010 to 2017， it is completely possible， using the current standards， to get rid of poverty and eliminate absolute poverty for all rural poor populations in China， including those in ethnic minority areas; for all poverty?stricken counties to take off the “hat of poverty”; and to solve overall regional poverty by 2020. After 2020， absolute rural poverty in the ethnic minority areas will be eliminated， and the problem of overall regional poverty will be resolved according to current standards. However， the basic situation of underdevelopment in ethnic minority areas will not ?change， meaning that overall regional underdevelopment will still exist. At that time， if poverty standards are raised， a considerable number of populations in ethnic minority areas， especially those in the “three districts， three prefectures” and other poverty?stricken areas， will?remain poor. Therefore， the task of controlling poverty will still be arduous.

If the growth rate continues to increase like it did during the period from 2010 to 2016， by 2021， the economy of scale of Inner Mongolia and Guangxi will be close to 3 trillion yuan， ?Guizhou and Yunnan will exceed 2 trillion yuan and Xinjiang will exceed 1.5 trillion yuan. ?In terms of the per capita GDP， ethnic minority areas will remain economically underdeveloped in China for a period of time after 2020. In terms of the income of rural residents， ethnic minority areas will still belong to the category of underdeveloped areas. From the perspective of national macro?space， unbalanced and inadequate development will be most prominent in ethnic areas. From the perspective of adequate development， there will be a multidimensional development gap between ethnic regions and developed regions， and this multidimensional development gap will be reflected not only in the results of development， but also in the process of development and the driving forces of development. The imbalance of development within ethnic areas will also be prominent. This will be reflected in the fact that the level of social and cultural development will be lower than the level of economic development， and the gap between cities ?and prefectures， between counties and between urban and rural areas will also be multidimensional. The realization of lifting all poor people in rural areas out of poverty by 2020 under the current standards of China will not mean the end of poverty in China. Instead， with continuous economic and social development， poverty will undergo changes. For ethnic minority areas， poverty will remain a serious problem because these areas will still be among the least developed regions in China after 2020. The situation of poverty will be mainly reflected in the following aspects：

1）It will shift from absolute poverty to a coexistence of absolute poverty and relative poverty.

After 2020， there will still be some absolutepoverty in ethnic areas. Because ethnic minority areas are mainly located in the western region， there will still be some absolute poverty in the villages and poor counties where the incidence of poverty is less than 3% according to current standards. Secondly， some critical populations in minority areas who were lifted out of poverty based upon the current standards will return to poverty due to unpredictable events. In addition， because poverty is a dynamic socio?economic process， and the standards for measuring poverty or the poverty line is also ?dynamic concept that changes with economic and social development， every adjustment of the poverty line will bring changes to the scale and number of poor populations. Therefore， it can be expected that the poverty line will be further adjusted after 2020. For example， the promotion of the line for absolute poverty will push some critical populations from poverty into absolute poverty.

After 2020， relative poverty will be the main problem in ethnic areas. The so?called “relative poverty”， from the perspective of income， refers to the social living conditions when the income level is low compared with the average social level. Because the?economies in ethnic minority areas are relatively underdeveloped， relative poverty in ethnic minority areas will be very serious if seen from the aspect of the entire national situation.

2）There will be a shift from rural poverty to a coexistence of urban poverty and rural poverty.

The urbanization of Chinas?permanent residents has exceeded 50% （57.35% in 2016）， and some of the people entering cities and towns have been converted from being a poor rural population into a poor urban population. ?This phenomenon is happening ?in the entire country as well as in ethnic minority areas. Unemployment or the low income of the urban population is caused by issues such as lack of skills or periodic fluctuations. Among the urban poor， ?there is both absolute poverty and relative poverty.

3）There will be a shift from single dimensional poverty to multidimensional poverty.

With the elimination of absolute poverty after 2020， as seen from the economic aspect， deprivation or poverty in politics， culture， society and ecology will become more important. The gap between ethnic regions and developed regions is not only reflected in the economic aspect， but in multi?dimensional ones. Even if it is an economic gap， there will also be differences in its breadth， depth and intensity.

4）There will be a shift from quantitative to qualitative poverty

At present， the vast majority of ethnic minority areas have greatly improved in quantity， but there is a big gap in quality. Therefore， poverty control in ethnic minority areas after 2020 should focus on improving the quality of poverty control.

By 2020，under current standards， we will lift the absolute poor populations out of poverty in rural areas， withdraw poor villages and take off the “hat of poverty” of poor counties， and solve the problem of regional poverty as a whole. This is all about survival. After 2020， considering the actual development of ethnic minority areas， no matter whether the line of poverty is raised， or whether is it assessed from the perspective of multi?dimensional poverty and relative poverty， ethnic minority areas， especially the deeply poverty?stricken counties， towns and villages in ethnic minority areas， will be the key areas for poverty control in China. The main problem to be solved in poverty control will no longer be simple survival， but will focus on the issue of development and sharing development outcomes. Therefore， this paper provides following ways of thinking about and paths for poverty control in ethnic areas after 2020：

1. Regional development： maximizing economic opportunities

1）Upgrade endowment structure： continue to strengthen infrastructure investment and further improve the quality and structure of endowment; 2）Fully understand the changes in the comparative advantages of ethnic minority areas in the new era， and focus on extending industry and increasing added value; 3）Work hard to enhance our capacity and level of openness， and create a new pattern of comprehensive opening?up; and 4）Reshape spatial economic patterns in accordance with the model of centralized and balanced development， and take a path of inclusive and green urbanization.

2. Poverty control： provide equal access to economic opportunities

1）The key area of absolute poverty control： address deep poverty ethnic minority areas; 2）Poverty control： ensure that poor people have equal access to opportunities; and 3）Combine poverty control with rural revitalization and urban?rural integration.

3. Poverty control： ensure the minimum economic welfare of special types of poor people， for example， those poor people who have low or no ability to work， no relatives to support them or no one on whom to rely.

Key Words：ethnic regions; poverty control; inclusive development

References：

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Zheng Changde. zhongguo shaoshu minzu diqu baorongxing lvse fazhan yanjiu （Study on Inclusive Green Development in Chinas?Ethnic Minority Areas）.Beijing：zhongguo jingji chubanshe，2016.

Zheng Changde. shendu pinkun minzu diqu tigao tuopin zhiliang de lujing yanjiu（Research on Ways to Improve the Quality of Poverty Alleviation in Deeply Poverty?stricken Ethnic Areas）. Discussion paper of the Research Center for Ethnic Economy in Western China，2018.

Zheng Changde. minzu diqu duowe fazhan chaju yanjiu （Research on Multidimensional Development Gap in Ethnic Areas）. Discussion paper of the Research Center for Ethnic Economy in Western China，2018.