Reporter Zhao Bo

According to MDS Transmodal, a British shipping data analysis agency, the number of container ships in the container shipping market dropped from 5015 to 4798 from the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2017, whilst the total capacity increased from 12.02 million TEU to 17.96 million TEU, up by more than 50%. From this, it can be analized that in the past ten years, large capacity has entered successively into the container transport market. The last year's data is relatively persuasive. From January to September of 2017, the global capacity increased by 4.7% compared to the same period of the previous year, and the number of container ships was reduced by 165. The major reason is that a considerable number of container ships below 7500TEU have been replaced by those with larger capacity. If the dismantling volume of container ships are not taken into account,MDS Transmodal thinks that by 2020, the total capacity of the world will increase by 13%, of which, the increment of large container ships (carrying capacity greater than 14000TEU) will be up by 70%.

According to the Danish Maritime consulting agency SeaIntel statistics, since the beginning of 2016, in the Far East - Nordic shipping market, the proportion of the capacity over 14000TEU has jumped to 45% from 5%,and it is expected that by 2020, the capacity of 88% of this shipping line will be more than 14000TEU, and more than 125 ships belong to super large container ship. It can be considered that more and more liner companies have regarded container ships of more than 18000TEU as the strategic investment for the Far East - North European line.Cai Jingwei, an analyst of China Shipbuilding Industry Economic and Market Research Center, said that under the double push of scale efficiency and energy saving and emission reduction, the large-scale operation of super large container capacity will still be the pursuit of some liner companies.

However, it is worth noting that the relative backwardness of the construction of the port infrastructure is weakening the economies of scale of the super large container ships. Therefore, only when the construction of the port infrastructure is synchronized with the large container ship,can the economies of scale of the super large container ships be reflected. Although the economy of the super large container ships is restricted by many factors, large ship is still the development trend of the container transportation market. At present, the largest container ship built in the world is up to 22000TEU, and according to the analysis of the insider, the actual capacity of the container can exceed 23500TEU. However, there is no indication that the largest single carrier volume of a container ship will stay at 22000TEU. In a recent report, McKinsey, a management consultancy, said that by 2067, 50000TEU container ships will be used for maritime transportation.

The progress of science and technology are by leaps and bounds. When after 50 years the 50000TEU capacity container ship call at the coastal sea, will it be connected to the other ship type or the offshore railway system, or another more advanced system of transportation? For this topic, we do not have to be stingy with our imagination...