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New Geopolitical Order in Middle East

Editor’s note: The mounting turmoil in Middle East has lasted for more than six years since the Arab Spring in 2011, which has caused geopolitically new development trend with regional powers’ strength change and realignment and regrouping. Iran and Turkey are extending their influence into Arab world while Saudi Arabia is counterattacking, starting the era of tripartite ‘Game of Thrones’ in Middle East. Various religious groups, ethnic groups and militarists during the war have become stronger. The national sovereignty of Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya have been severely weakened. The domestic politics has started the era of ‘weak sovereignty” and imperium in imperio exists in Middle East. Furthermore, the upcoming destruction of ‘Islamic State’ would soon trigger off an ever fiercer contention for the Vacuum Zone it left. It is the great political changes in this region since the formation of sovereign states after World War I.

Trump Administration’s North Korea Policy Logic and DPRK Nuclear Issue Prospects

FanJishe

Abstract: North Korea nuclear issue is a top issue on President Trump’s foreign policy agenda. Many unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral moves have been taken to address the rising tension in Korean Peninsula. The underlying logic of Trump Administration’s policy toward North Korea is very obvious: He understands the urgency of the North Korea nuclear challenge, and promoting negotiation by imposing maximum pressure against North Korea is the only thing he could do. In order to make this policy work, the United States tried hard to enlist China’s full support of its Maximum Pressure policy. The North Korea nuclear issue is entering a new stage, and there are three likely scenarios. First, North Korea will return to the negotiation table, with its nuclear and missile development suspended temporarily. Second, the stalemate in North Korea nuclear issue will continue, and North Korea will manage to survive and successfully obtain credible nuclear deterrent. Third, unexpected new crisis with great potential of escalating or military conflict will emerge, and uncertainty will be the key feature of Northeast Asia security.

Trump Administration; North Korea Nuclear Issue; Maximum Pressure and Engagement; Sino-US relationship

Montenegro’s Accession and NATO Enlargement’s Dilemma and Solution

XuHaiyun&ZengChenyu

Abstract：Montenegro became the 29th member of NATO. It is NATO enlargement achievement, but it also discloses problems the eastward expansion of NATO faces. Is it the enlargement strengthening NATO itself or containing Russia? Is enlarged NATO becoming strong or weak? Is eastward expansion of NATO making more profits or more troubles? How does enlarged NATO unify its goal and practice? Enlargement has resulted in conflict escalation between NATO and Russia and political and security instability in Europe. Its development depends on NATO’s strategic orientation, practice and European political and security changes.

Keywords: NATO Enlargement; Community of Democracies; Enlargement Paradox

Promoting Public Diplomacy towards Japan in Adversarial Political Environment—Focusing on the Ritsumeikan Confucius Institute

FanQiang&ZhangYun

Abstract: The tense political relations are thought to be the most important factor of China’s public diplomacy towards Japan. As a representation of China’s public diplomacy towards Japan, the Confucius Institutes (CIs) in Japan have worked successfully despite some difficulties. This paper will explore how to promote public diplomacy in an adversarial political environment by focusing on the Ritsumeikan CI. The following three preliminary conclusions can be drawn: first, an adversarial political environment does not inevitably lead to public diplomacy failure. Public diplomacy initiatives could survive by building stable cooperation with the local partners. Second, China should pay attention to select qualified Japanese local partners rather than government highly recommended partners to promote public diplomacy towards Japan. Third, different CIs should be treated by different methods. A mixture of support and exit mechanism could stimulate the enthusiasm of Japanese partners.

Keywords: Adversarial Political Environment; Public Diplomacy; Ritsumeikan Confucius Institute; China-Japan Relations

China’s Involvement in the Indian Ocean Port Projects: Progress and Risk Control

SunHaiyong

Abstract: Port construction is a core part of maritime connectivity and an important part of implementing the Maritime Silk Road Initiative. However, the port construction in the Indian Ocean region is underdeveloped and may impede the development of the Initiative along this area. Due to its construction capacity and existing investment projects in the region, China is able to provide strong support for the construction of the Indian Ocean projects. Currently, countries in and outside the region have paid more attention to the Indian Ocean port projects in the region, which makes China’s involvement in the port construction more risk taking. During the construction, investment and operation of port projects, China is encountering three types of risks: geopolitical risk, host countries’ domestic political risk and regional non-traditional risk. China needs to take concrete measures in project, bilateral and regional level. It will promote the smooth connectivity in the Maritime Silk Road along the Indian Ocean.

Keywords: Maritime Silk Road; Infrastructure Connectivity; Maritime Connectivity; the Indian Ocean Port

(Edited By Zhang Yimeng)