譯／張群群

墨西哥經(jīng)濟(jì)的兩面性

譯／張群群

The Two Mexicos

With its combination of modernity and poverty, Mexico provides lessons for all emerging markets.

“In establishing the rule of law，the first five centuries are always the hardest.” For much of the past two decades， that quip by Gordon Brown，a former British prime minister， has seemed not just dour， but wrong.Buoyed by China， by trade growth and capital inflows， by talk of new middle classes1新中產(chǎn)階層。2009年斯普林格出版社（Springer）推出了《新中產(chǎn)階層：全球化的生活方式、消費(fèi)主義與環(huán)境關(guān)切》（The New Middle Classes: Globalizing Lifestyles,Consumerism and Environmental Concern）一書，聚焦20世紀(jì)90年代中期以來發(fā)展中國家新興中產(chǎn)群體的生活、消費(fèi)與社會(huì)態(tài)度。and the bottom billion2最底層的十億人。英國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅·科利爾（Paul Collier）于2007年出版了暢銷書《最底層的十億人：最貧窮國家為何日益衰??？如何起死回生？》（The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It），探討最貧窮的國家怎樣逃離種種發(fā)展陷阱，提高治國理政的成效。， it was easy to forget old truths about how hard it is for poor countries to become rich.A breezy assumption took hold3take hold 生根。: that emerging markets would surely follow the likes of South Korea on the path to wealth.

[2] That view of development has crumbled of late4of late近來，最近。， along with emerging markets’ growth rates. China， the locomotive to which many are still hitched， is slowing. Russia， South Africa and Brazilare in reverse gear5in reverse gear倒退，退步，衰退。.Their currencies drop with every fall in commodity prices. Trade is growing more slowly than global GDP， a trend that seems unlikely to reverse soon. All of this makes the trajectory taken by the East Asian tigers6東亞四虎，指20世紀(jì)60年代起迅速實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)騰飛的中國香港、新加坡、韓國和中國臺(tái)灣，華語圈中稱之為“亞洲四小龍”。注意不同于“亞洲四小虎（Tiger Cub Economies）”（泰國、馬來西亞、印度尼西亞和菲律賓）。seem ever more exceptional.

Duet for one7

[3] Mexico has a lot going for it8have a lot going for one 處于有利境地。just now. Its economy is tied to9be tied to 捆綁于，依賴。America’s rather than China’s: in a week it sells more exports to the world’s largest consumer market than it does to China in a year. Once dependent on oil， it has Latin America’s largest and most sophisticated industrial base， exporting more cars than any country except Germany， Japan and South Korea.For two decades its macroeconomic management has been impeccably orthodox. Recently， it has thrown open its oil industry to private investment， and has tackled private monopolies. A vibrant Mexican middle class prospers along an industrial corridor running from the American border down to Mexico City. Its political system is essentially stable.

[4] Yet despite decades of reforms—at times half-hearted， at times fullthrottled10full-throttled全速地，開足馬力?！狹exico has failed to bridge the gap11bridge the gap縮小差距，彌合差別。between a globalised minority and a majority that lives in what Enrique Pe?a Nieto12墨西哥革命制度黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人、現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)，1966年生，2012年當(dāng)選并開始執(zhí)政。， the president，admits is “backwardness and poverty”.Since 1994， when Mexico joined the North American Free Trade Agreement，income per head has grown by an annual average of barely 1%. About half the population remains stuck in poverty;another quarter risks slipping back into penury. Lawlessness， corruption and con fl icts of interest13conflict of interest違背公眾利益的行為，損公利己的行為。prevail among the police， courts and politicians supposed to care for the marginalised.

[5] Mexico’s duality shows that getting macroeconomic policy right is necessary to success， but not sufficient. The difficulties it still faces are a cautionary tale. The first lesson，and easiest to learn， is the centrality of urbanisation. Cities offer people opportunities to prosper that cannot be found in the countryside: about 120，000 people in Asia are migrating to cities every day， for example. But unless cities provide transport， power，sanitation and security， they will fail to ful fi l their economic potential. Violent，drug-related crime stalks Mexico’s scruffy barrios14， where city-dwellers live. In South Africa the lack of public transport obliges slum-dwellers to take expensive minibus-taxis to work. Cities in Pakistan and the Philippines are plagued by blackouts15. Slums ought to be every moderniser’s priority.

Roads and rails

[6] The second is the importance of infrastructure， and not just in the cities.Many of the foundations of the modern Mexican economy were laid a century ago， in the form of roads and railways tying its industrial heartland to its ports and the northern border. That leaves swathes of the country unconnected.Centralisation breeds anomalies:

beach resorts often buy their seafood in Mexico City’s wholesale market，hundreds of miles from the coast. Yet linking up parts of a country is not easy.It takes both investors willing to bear risk and also politicians prepared to take on the status quo. In India， for example，plans for big infrastructure projects have been frustrated by squabbles over land and a dearth of long-term fi nancing.

[7] A third lesson from Mexico is the need to bring the informal economy into the light. Small， unregistered firms provide employment to most of the labour force， but are shunned by banks and anxious to remain below the taxman’s radar16below the radar 在視線以外，不引人注目。. That saps17sap 使衰竭，使傷元?dú)?；挖掘以破壞基礎(chǔ)。the domestic economy. This problem is as prevalent in Mexico’s changarros18changarro〈西班牙語〉小店鋪，小吃攤。也泛指低收入者經(jīng)營的各式各樣的小買賣。，where tacos sizzle alongside every bus stop， as it is in the shops and stalls of India， where only 2% of food and grocery retailing is in the formal sector.Electronic invoicing， which creates digital trails for the taxman， and mobile banking， which brings poor people out of the cash economy， both offer promise.

[8] But the ubiquity of informal firms also points to a final lesson—the corrosive effects of a general lack of trust. Without enforceable laws and contracts， public services that make taxes seem worth paying and a political establishment that serves the national interest， the only institution that most people can rely on is the family. As Mr Brown hinted， it can take generations to build institutions that enable people to trust arm’s-length transactions19arm’s length transactions正常交易，常規(guī)的商業(yè)交換，并非基于特定關(guān)系的市場(chǎng)交換活動(dòng)。.But it is not impossible. Witness the confidence now invested in Mexico’s and Brazil’s central banks， or South Africa’s tax authorities.

[9] Even the boldest reformer could not rapidly resolve all of these problems. This is the less cheering message of the two Mexicos: for all but a handful of countries， the road to prosperity is hard and long20hard and long艱辛而漫長。此處歸化譯作“道阻且長”。. But Mexico’s successes also demonstrate that it does exist. Even if the gains must be measured in decades， perseverance eventually brings rewards. ■

因其現(xiàn)代性與貧困交織，墨西哥為所有新興市場(chǎng)國家提供了教訓(xùn)。

“在建立法治的過程中，最初的五百年總是舉步維艱?！边^去二十年的大部分時(shí)間里，英國前首相戈登·布朗的這句嘲諷，似乎不只是冷酷，好像也不公道。中國快速發(fā)展，世界貿(mào)易增長且資本流入增多，新中產(chǎn)階層以及最底層的十億人成為熱議話題，受此鼓舞，人們很容易忘記歷史上有關(guān)窮國致富何其艱難的事實(shí)。根深蒂固的樂觀假設(shè)是：新興市場(chǎng)在追求財(cái)富之路上，肯定會(huì)以韓國等為榜樣。

[2]隨著新興市場(chǎng)增長率的下降，這種發(fā)展觀最近已破滅。中國是推動(dòng)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的火車頭，許多國家仍搭著這趟順風(fēng)車，而中國正在減速。俄羅斯、南非和巴西則出現(xiàn)衰退。隨著大宗商品價(jià)格的每一次下跌，他們的貨幣也在貶值。與全球國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）相比，貿(mào)易的增長更加緩慢，而這一趨勢(shì)似乎不太可能在短時(shí)間內(nèi)逆轉(zhuǎn)。所有這一切使亞洲四小龍的發(fā)展軌跡越發(fā)像是特例。

一曲二重奏

[3]墨西哥眼下?lián)碛性S多有利條件。其經(jīng)濟(jì)依賴于美國而非中國：它對(duì)美國這個(gè)世界上最大消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)一周的出口額，比其對(duì)中國一年的出口額都要多。從前依賴于石油業(yè)，現(xiàn)在它擁有拉丁美洲最龐大、最發(fā)達(dá)的工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，汽車出口量?jī)H次于德國、日本和韓國。在二十年里，其宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理一貫符合常規(guī)，無可挑剔。最近，它取消了石油業(yè)對(duì)私人投資的限制，并已著手處理私人壟斷。沿著從美墨邊境延伸到墨西哥城的工業(yè)走廊，充滿生機(jī)的墨西哥中產(chǎn)階層蓬勃發(fā)展起來。其政治體系基本穩(wěn)定。

[4]然而，盡管推行了數(shù)十年的改革——有時(shí)改得三心二意，有時(shí)又被全面壓制——但墨西哥至今也沒能縮小貧富差距；實(shí)現(xiàn)全球化的只是少數(shù)，大多數(shù)人仍生活在總統(tǒng)恩里克·培尼亞·涅托所承認(rèn)的“貧窮落后”之中。自從1994年墨西哥加入北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，其人均收入平均每年增長僅1%。約一半的人口仍陷于貧困；另四分之一有返貧的危險(xiǎn)。目無法紀(jì)、貪污腐敗和損公肥私盛行于警察系統(tǒng)、法院系統(tǒng)和政界，而這些部門本該關(guān)懷邊緣群體。

[5]墨西哥經(jīng)濟(jì)的二元性表明，保持正確的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策是取得成功的必要條件，卻非充分條件。它仍面臨的重重困境值得其他國家引以為戒。第一條教訓(xùn)，也是最容易把握的，就是城市化的中心地位。城市為人們提供了農(nóng)村所沒有的成功機(jī)會(huì)：例如，亞洲每天有12萬人遷往城市。但是，如果城市不能提供交通、電力、公共衛(wèi)生與安全保障，它們就無法充分發(fā)揮其經(jīng)濟(jì)潛能。在墨西哥，城市居民棲身的破爛不堪的貧民區(qū)中，暴力犯罪和毒品犯罪十分猖獗。在南非，由于缺少公共交通設(shè)施，貧民窟的居民被迫搭乘昂貴的小型計(jì)程巴士上班。巴基斯坦和菲律賓的城市飽受斷電之苦。貧民窟問題是每個(gè)現(xiàn)代化的推動(dòng)者應(yīng)該優(yōu)先考慮解決的。

公路和鐵路

[6]第二條教訓(xùn)是公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的重要性，而且不只在城市。把工業(yè)腹地與其港口和北部邊境緊密聯(lián)結(jié)起來的公路和鐵路，是現(xiàn)代墨西哥經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)，其中有許多是在一個(gè)世紀(jì)之前建好的。這使該國大片土地彼此隔絕。中心集聚導(dǎo)致了反?，F(xiàn)象：海濱度假勝地的人常常要到數(shù)百英里外墨西哥城的批發(fā)市場(chǎng)采購海鮮。但是，把一個(gè)國家不同區(qū)域連接起來并非易事。這既需要投資者甘于承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，也需要政治家勇于接受現(xiàn)狀的挑戰(zhàn)。例如，在印度，大型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的規(guī)劃，就因?yàn)橥恋丶姞?zhēng)和缺乏長期融資而遭遇挫敗。

[7]墨西哥提供的第三條教訓(xùn)，是將非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)納入正軌的必要性。沒有注冊(cè)的小企業(yè)為絕大部分勞動(dòng)力提供了就業(yè)崗位，但銀行有意回避它們，它們自己也恨不得一直躲開稅務(wù)人員的稽查。這種情況破壞了國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的根基。墨西哥的小買賣也普遍存在這個(gè)問題，在每個(gè)公交車站旁都有一溜兒小吃攤，玉米卷煎得咝咝作響。印度的商店和攤點(diǎn)也是如此，在那里只有2%的食品和雜貨零售店屬于正規(guī)部門。電子發(fā)票系統(tǒng)可為稅務(wù)員提供稅控的數(shù)字依據(jù)，而移動(dòng)銀行業(yè)務(wù)可使貧民擺脫現(xiàn)金經(jīng)濟(jì)，二者為經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的正規(guī)化提供了新希望。

[8]不過，非正規(guī)企業(yè)無處不在的現(xiàn)象也指向了最后一條教訓(xùn)，即普遍缺乏信任所造成的侵蝕效應(yīng)。如果沒有可以強(qiáng)制實(shí)施的法律和契約，沒有讓人相信值得為之納稅的公共服務(wù)，沒有為國家利益服務(wù)的政權(quán)機(jī)構(gòu)，那么，絕大多數(shù)人唯一可以依靠的機(jī)構(gòu)就只有家庭了。正如布朗先生所指，要建立能夠使人們信賴常規(guī)交易的各種機(jī)構(gòu)，可能得用上幾代人的時(shí)間。但這并非辦不到。不妨把人們現(xiàn)在對(duì)墨西哥和巴西中央銀行或南非稅務(wù)機(jī)關(guān)所寄予的滿滿信心作為見證。

[9]即便是最敢作敢為的改革者，也不可能迅速解決所有這些難題。這就是墨西哥經(jīng)濟(jì)的兩面性所帶來的不那么令人振奮的啟示：除少數(shù)國家以外，對(duì)幾乎所有國家來說，通向繁榮之路，道阻且長。但墨西哥的成功也證明了確有此路?？v然努力之成效須以數(shù)十載來衡量，但持之以恒，終有所獲。 □

（譯者單位：中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院財(cái)經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院）