By Xie Xie

Prospect of China cruise market in 2030 and ways to realize

By Xie Xie

The report by the think tank of economists“Prospect of Chinese Consumers in 2030”predicts the development trend of the potential of consumption in China in the future. Many of the statistics contained in the report can be used to predict the number of cruise tourists in China in 2030.

According to the current pattern of China's cruise market, we can see that the region around Bohai Sea, Beijing and Tianjin are where consumers with the second and eighth highest level of consumption are located and have the right condition for rapid development in this phase. Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wuxi and Nanjing and many other high-income consumers ranked in the top 20 of the cities are along the Yangtze River Delta region, this is the basis for Shanghai to become China’s first cruise home port. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Foshan ranked in the top 20 of the cities with consumers of the third highest income are along the Pearl River Delta region, this is the basic condition for the Pearl River Delta region to overtake in terms of cruise home ports in recent years. On the basis of local tourist market and continuous improvement of the connection with surrounding area, Qingdao, Wenzhou and Xiamen ports also attracted a number of cruise tourists.

In the future, the tourist market in the Yangtze RiverDelta region covers the cities with consumers of the fi rst, sixth, eighth, tenth, fifteenth and seventeenth highest income, the cruise consumer groups (high, medium and high income consumers) will be increased by about 41.4m, cruise tourists will be increased by 1.24m, it is still the leader of China cruise market in the future. Chongqing, Chengdu and Wuhan as inland cities has a huge tourist market potential, and may be incorporated into radiation of Shanghai home port in the future. Cruise tourists in this area will be increased by 0.59m, reaching 19.5m. In the tourist market of Bohai Sea region, the potential consumer group will be increased by 24.6m, and the tourists will be increased by 0.74m, and this area also has a good development potential. In the tourist market of the Pearl River Delta region, the potential tourists will increase by 30.1m in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Foshan, and cruise tourists will be increased by 0.9m, but this volume will be shunted by three home cruise terminals. Qingdao and Ji'nan will have an increase of 7.8m in cruise consumers, and will contribute 0.23m tourists to Qingdao. Wenzhou will have an increase of 6m cruise consumers, and will have an increase of 0.18m tourists.

According to the forecast results, China's cruise market in the future will increase by 5.8 times on the existing basis, enjoying an average annual growth rate of 14.6%. The development will be fast in the former stage, but will go slower later. Undoubtedly, this is good news, there is no market in the world with so exciting development. Currently, the number of cruise cabins in China allocated by major cruise companies is about 20 thousand in total, which will be surpassed in the future and this means numerous ships will be needed to fi ll the market space, this provides a good opportunity for China local cruise industry to develop. How to build a high quality cruise market in China? Firstly, a healthy industry ecology needs to be formed. Good ecological industry needs leading enterprises to set example, initiatively come up with enough sincerity in the construction of ecological industry, form the ecological chain of negotiation and dialogue mechanism and common benefits between different enterprises, jointly share the industry risk, build industry credit system and form the common industry rules to make the market step into the healthy operation track.

Secondly, differentiated service is the core. Each company should deeply explore how to create differentiated products, how to make the localization transformation of the cruise with European and American style, but not completely abandon the cruise product attributes. In the future, China’s homemade cruise will continue to join Chinese market, we need to carefully consider what services should be provided, what recognitions should be established in the consumers’ minds.

Thirdly, industry supervision needs to innovate. The“negative list mode” that is on trial in the free trade zone is the biggest benef i t for new thing just like cruise ship. Can the cruise ship be covered by the coastal transport right management as stipulated in the “International Maritime Transport Regulation”? Can the relevant provisions of the cruise ship supply be adapted to the timeliness of cruise material supply? The supervision of cruise market should be open to enable more enterprises to be in the market. The focus of the supervision should be conducted during and after the process. Modern supervision method should be timely updated and put into use, making industrial association and think tank play their corresponding role.