JIANG Yu，GUAN Shiyi

(College of Economics and Management，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040 China)

Space-Time Differences and Spatial Convergence of Forestry Total Factor Productivity in China

JIANG Yu，GUAN Shiyi

(College of Economics and Management，Northeast Forestry University，Harbin 150040 China)

Background Forestry is one of the most important fundamental industries in China，it not only brings economic benefits，but also produces social and ecological benefits．Forestry total factor productivity(Forestry TFP)，as an important index for measuring the situation of forestry situation and the degree of forestry function playing，can reflect the ability of forestry input-output and the sustainable development ability of forestry industry．Therefore，measuring forestry TFP，and analyzing the regional differences and its change trend in the forestry TFP has important practical significance．

Methods The variables of forestry input-output include forest area，investment in fixed assets，year-end forestry employees，forest volume and forestry output value．The data of 31 regions in China were from China Forestry Statistical Yearbook from 2004 to 2014．Forestry TFP and its components are measured and analyzed by using the DEA-Malmquist index methods．The components include technical progress change index，pure technical efficiency change index and scale efficiency change index．Analyzing the forestry development trend by using convergence analysis method．

Results According to the results of space-time differences analyzing，forestry TFP is fluctuated，but the overall trend of it is on the rise．The changes of 3 components of forestry TFP from 2004 to 2014 show that forestry scale efficiency and pure technical efficiency have small influence on forestry TFP．The forestry TFP is mainly affected by technology progress．At the same time，these 3 components also influence the regional forestry TFP．The comparative analysis of spatial differences imply that in the survey regions，although most of the regional forestry development is good，the negative growth trend still appear in the few regional forestry TFP，for example，Xizang，Beijing and Qingdao．According to the results of spatial convergence analyzing，the development of regional forestry in China can be divided into 3 stages by σ convergence．Only the second stage(2008-2011)belongs to the stage of dispersed，then the difference of forestry TFP between regions increase obviously．The other stages have σ convergence，then the difference of total factor productivity between regions become smaller．According to the results of absolute β convergence test，the β values are negative，so that the absolute β convergence appear in the regional forestry TFP at different stages．This phenomenon suggests that the forestry TFP in underdevelopment area growth faster than developed area．The results of conditional β test imply that the regional forestry TFP will converge to its own stable level with the cultural exchanges gradually strengthened and the deepening development of economic cooperation between the regions．The growth difference between the regional forestry TFP is falling，and it makes forestry converges to the same stable growth．

Conclusions and Discussions The growth of total factor productivity is mainly influenced by technology changes．There exist differences between the regional forestry development level，it is related to the level of science and technology，the situation of the ecological environment and the regional policy enforcement，etc．Over time，catch-up effect exist between low forestry total factor productivity region and high forestry total factor productivity region．The differences between various regions gradually decrease，the trend of development to tend to the same level．According to the results，this paper put forward 3 corresponding policy suggestions：First one，the exchanges and cooperation between various regions should be strengthened；Secondly，promoting healthy development of forestry should relay on the method of adjust measures to local conditions；Thirdly，the promotion of scientific and technological achievements should be strengthened．

DEA-Malmquist index method；forestry total factor productivity；convergence analysis

Original Articlein姜鈺，管時一．中國林業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率的時空差異及空間收斂性分析．林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，2017，37(2)：86-91．

10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2017.02.016