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創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新是助推產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的新引擎

田如柱金輝

由中國社科院民營經(jīng)濟研究中心和經(jīng)濟參考報聯(lián)合主辦、恒茂集團承辦的以“中國經(jīng)濟邁向中高端——民營企業(yè)發(fā)展面臨的挑戰(zhàn)與選擇”為主題的雙月座談會日前舉行。全國人大常委、財政經(jīng)濟委員會副主任、民建中央副主席辜勝阻，中國社科院民營經(jīng)濟研究中心主任劉迎秋等專家在會上發(fā)表了自己的觀點。

我國經(jīng)濟進入新常態(tài)，同時正處于經(jīng)濟增長速度的換擋期、結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的陣痛期、前期刺激政策的消化期“三期疊加”時期，經(jīng)濟下行壓力較大。引領(lǐng)新常態(tài)，保持經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)增長的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)就在于以改革創(chuàng)新推進新一輪創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新浪潮，李克強總理提出，“要借改革創(chuàng)新的東風(fēng)，在中國960萬平方公里的大地上掀起一個大眾創(chuàng)業(yè)、草根創(chuàng)業(yè)的新浪潮”。新一輪的創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新浪潮是穩(wěn)定中國經(jīng)濟增長，推動產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的重大引擎，不斷產(chǎn)生的創(chuàng)業(yè)活動和新企業(yè)給經(jīng)濟增長帶來了持續(xù)的活力，成為經(jīng)濟“新常態(tài)”下經(jīng)濟增長的持久動力。

當前為什么要大力推進創(chuàng)業(yè)？打造經(jīng)濟發(fā)展新引擎需要創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新，高速城鎮(zhèn)化也需要創(chuàng)業(yè)帶動就業(yè)形成產(chǎn)業(yè)支撐。新常態(tài)下經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型面臨四大陣痛：制造業(yè)要去產(chǎn)能化、金融要去杠桿化、房地產(chǎn)要去泡沫化、環(huán)境要去污染化。要解決這四大陣痛，非常重要的是創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動。創(chuàng)新與創(chuàng)業(yè)緊密相連，今年的政府工作報告提出了“雙中高”目標，即經(jīng)濟增長速度從兩位數(shù)的高速增長到中高速增長；產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展從產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈低端走向中高端。要實現(xiàn)這兩個目標，關(guān)鍵在于打造新引擎和改造舊引擎。通過創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新來打造經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的新引擎，就能避免經(jīng)濟“硬著陸”，保證經(jīng)濟的平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展。通過大眾創(chuàng)業(yè)、萬眾創(chuàng)新激發(fā)民間資本活力，也有利于緩解經(jīng)濟下行壓力，在穩(wěn)增長中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。李克強總理講到城鎮(zhèn)化是擴大內(nèi)需的最大潛力，但是，高速的城鎮(zhèn)化如果沒有創(chuàng)業(yè)和產(chǎn)業(yè)支撐，可能帶來很多鬼城、空城、債城等問題。缺乏產(chǎn)業(yè)支撐和穩(wěn)定就業(yè)的城鎮(zhèn)化將導(dǎo)致貧困由農(nóng)村向城市“平移”，導(dǎo)致拉美化現(xiàn)象和孟買現(xiàn)象。同時，城鎮(zhèn)化進程中實現(xiàn)農(nóng)民工市民化也需要創(chuàng)業(yè)帶動就業(yè)。城鎮(zhèn)化有人、業(yè)、錢、地、房五大要素，人是核心。人的城鎮(zhèn)化關(guān)鍵在于實現(xiàn)農(nóng)民工市民化，而市民化的關(guān)鍵是穩(wěn)定就業(yè)。因此，中國經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)增長要靠創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新浪潮；城鎮(zhèn)化的健康發(fā)展要有產(chǎn)業(yè)支撐，防止出現(xiàn)空城、鬼城、債城，也要靠創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新浪潮。

如何看待新一輪創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮？我今年去了十多個省市，對創(chuàng)業(yè)進行調(diào)研，發(fā)現(xiàn)改革、創(chuàng)新正在引領(lǐng)新一輪創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮。新一輪創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮有四大動力：一是簡政放權(quán)和商事制度改革降低了創(chuàng)業(yè)門檻與成本，推動新的市場主體井噴式增長；二是新一代互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展帶動產(chǎn)品服務(wù)、商業(yè)模式與管理機制的創(chuàng)新，引領(lǐng)新一輪互聯(lián)網(wǎng)創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮；三是高新區(qū)與科技園區(qū)作為集聚人才、技術(shù)、資金等創(chuàng)新要素的重要載體，引領(lǐng)新一輪聚合創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新浪潮，比如中關(guān)村是典型的要素聚合創(chuàng)新載體，具有產(chǎn)、學(xué)、研、用、金、介、政齊備的協(xié)同創(chuàng)新體系，通過不斷吸引人才、技術(shù)、資本、信息等創(chuàng)新要素資源集聚，使中關(guān)村不僅成為創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新者的棲息地，而且成為北京和全國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)創(chuàng)新經(jīng)濟的最大引擎；四是當前出現(xiàn)的并購熱刺激“職業(yè)創(chuàng)業(yè)人”崛起。改革開放以來，我國共經(jīng)歷了三次創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮并誕生了三代民營企業(yè)家，與前三次創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮相比，新一輪創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮的主體更加具有復(fù)合性：金融危機催發(fā)海歸潮推動創(chuàng)業(yè)，像山東的韓都衣舍，老板就是從韓國回來的，將服裝產(chǎn)業(yè)與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)進行結(jié)合，現(xiàn)在做得很成功；精英離職引發(fā)創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮，不僅有官員創(chuàng)業(yè)，也有大量科技人員從科技企業(yè)離職創(chuàng)業(yè)，像百度、騰訊這種高科技公司大量的管理、技術(shù)人員紛紛離職，創(chuàng)辦自己的公司；返鄉(xiāng)農(nóng)民工掀起新的草根創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮，受全球金融危機影響，不僅大量洋海歸回歸創(chuàng)業(yè)，農(nóng)海歸也返鄉(xiāng)以創(chuàng)業(yè)帶動就業(yè)，比如湖北黃岡有兩千多農(nóng)民工回鄉(xiāng)創(chuàng)業(yè)，吸納8萬多人就業(yè)。

如何推動新一輪的創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮？要多措并舉，營造良好的創(chuàng)業(yè)環(huán)境，讓企業(yè)不僅能夠“生出來”，而且能夠“活下去”、“活得好”，政府要作為，金融要改革。具體有六個方面建議：首先，要營造低成本、低門檻的公平有序的創(chuàng)業(yè)環(huán)境，強化法治保障和政策支持，讓草根創(chuàng)業(yè)者的熱情競相迸發(fā)，讓精英創(chuàng)業(yè)者的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)快速成長。第二，要實現(xiàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)與創(chuàng)新聯(lián)動，形成以推廣應(yīng)用帶動技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，以技術(shù)創(chuàng)新促進推廣應(yīng)用的良性發(fā)展機制。創(chuàng)新與創(chuàng)業(yè)是一對孿生兄弟，實現(xiàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新聯(lián)動，非常重要的是要進一步放松市場管制，允許不同商業(yè)模式和運營機制先行先試和應(yīng)用示范，大力支持科技成果產(chǎn)業(yè)化，鼓勵帶動更多技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和商業(yè)模式創(chuàng)新。第三，營造良好的創(chuàng)客空間，打造綠色的創(chuàng)業(yè)生態(tài)，發(fā)揮平臺企業(yè)的龍頭帶動作用，形成依托平臺創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)業(yè)的新模式、新潮流。第四，要發(fā)展服務(wù)創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新的天使投資、風(fēng)險投資等股權(quán)投資，發(fā)展互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融，拓寬融資渠道，解決創(chuàng)業(yè)所需的“錢”的問題。大家對小米手機都很熟悉，雷軍不僅是小米的CEO，而且是有名的天使投資人。天使投資是創(chuàng)業(yè)投資產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈體系的源頭，推進新一輪創(chuàng)業(yè)浪潮的發(fā)展離不開股權(quán)投資的支持。第五，構(gòu)建針對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)創(chuàng)業(yè)的教育培訓(xùn)體系，發(fā)展互聯(lián)網(wǎng)創(chuàng)業(yè)的技能教育和創(chuàng)業(yè)教育，解決創(chuàng)業(yè)所需要的“人”的問題，化解人才瓶頸。國務(wù)院印發(fā)了相關(guān)文件，大學(xué)要開設(shè)創(chuàng)業(yè)課程，創(chuàng)業(yè)可以獲得學(xué)分，大學(xué)生可以修學(xué)創(chuàng)業(yè)。發(fā)達國家大學(xué)生創(chuàng)業(yè)一般在15％-20％左右，我國大學(xué)生創(chuàng)業(yè)只有1％，且成功率低。第六，要構(gòu)建支持互聯(lián)網(wǎng)創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新的多層次資本市場，讓企業(yè)能夠活得長、長得大、走得遠。要通過技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和金融創(chuàng)新雙輪驅(qū)動，大力發(fā)展支持創(chuàng)業(yè)者創(chuàng)新的金融市場，努力營造促進創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)業(yè)的良好投融資環(huán)境。

中央明確指出，當前我國經(jīng)濟運行雖仍處合理區(qū)間，但下行壓力較大，因此，必須高度重視應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟下行壓力，確?！胺€(wěn)增長”。習(xí)近平總書記在東部七省市黨委主要負責(zé)人座上又進一步強調(diào)指出，要深入研究保持經(jīng)濟增長的舉措和辦法，著力解決制約經(jīng)濟社會持續(xù)健康發(fā)展的重大問題，“推動經(jīng)濟總量上臺階”。

“穩(wěn)增長”是為了“推動經(jīng)濟總量上臺階”。回顧改革開放以來的30多年，我國經(jīng)濟總量至少已經(jīng)上過兩個大臺階：第一個大臺階，是2008年我國人均GDP超過3000美元，經(jīng)濟總量超過德國，成為全球第三大經(jīng)濟體。第二個大臺階，是2010年我國人均GDP達到4400美元，經(jīng)濟總量超過日本，成為全球第二大經(jīng)濟體。到2014年底，我國GDP突破10萬億美元，已經(jīng)把日本遠遠落在后邊。但是，需要注意的是，如果用GNP做總量比較，我國可能遠未達到日本的兩倍。目前，我國正在經(jīng)歷要上的第三個大臺階，即在經(jīng)濟總量上超越美國這個大臺階。通過一系列假定前提計算，以當期美元表示的我國GDP可能于2022年超過美國，屆時美國的GDP約為19.65萬億美元，我國則可能達到20.61萬億美元。這是我國經(jīng)濟總量登上的第三個大臺階。

“推動經(jīng)濟總量上臺階”，必須在一個較長時期內(nèi)保持國民經(jīng)濟中高速增長。在這個過程中，我們既需要科學(xué)處理外延式增長與內(nèi)涵式增長的關(guān)系、投資推動的增長與“三駕馬車”協(xié)調(diào)推動的增長關(guān)系，又需要科學(xué)處理經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的關(guān)系、經(jīng)濟較快發(fā)展與環(huán)境更好保護的關(guān)系等等，并由此達到“既要金山銀山，又要綠水青山”的理想目標。其中，一個基本點就是要保持國民經(jīng)濟實現(xiàn)不低于7％的增長速度，這是我國經(jīng)濟社會進一步發(fā)展的重要基礎(chǔ)和前提所在。據(jù)估計，直至我國經(jīng)濟總量跨上第三個大臺階即超過美國為止，都必須始終力保我國經(jīng)濟實際增長不滑出7％這個下限。對此必須給予高度重視。

“推動我國經(jīng)濟總量上臺階”，在短期宏觀調(diào)控上，可考慮把追求“潛在增長率缺口”，即潛在經(jīng)濟增長率與實際經(jīng)濟增長率的差額最小化作為基本政策目標。為此，就要把支撐我國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)增長的六大因素盡可能做到極致。一是要盡可能使其穩(wěn)定在7.5％-8.5％之間。二是要學(xué)會發(fā)掘、拓展和更好地釋放人力資本紅利，以更好抵銷傳統(tǒng)人口紅利迅速消失的負面影響。三是要學(xué)會把勞動收入和城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距轉(zhuǎn)化為經(jīng)濟增長重要推力，繼續(xù)鼓勵勤勞致富，引導(dǎo)更多勞動人口白領(lǐng)化。四是繼續(xù)著力科學(xué)實施和積極鼓勵后發(fā)地區(qū)追趕先發(fā)地區(qū)的政策。五是進一步大力度鼓勵和支持全民科學(xué)和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，用高新技術(shù)和實用技術(shù)引領(lǐng)我國經(jīng)濟中高端發(fā)展。六是進一步用好互聯(lián)網(wǎng)＋，創(chuàng)新市場形態(tài)與發(fā)展機制，發(fā)掘國內(nèi)和國外兩個市場，充分發(fā)揮國內(nèi)市場的經(jīng)濟增長支撐作用，鞏固提升國際市場的經(jīng)濟增長引導(dǎo)作用。

“推動經(jīng)濟總量上臺階”，還要在全面深化改革的同時，深入做好經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的深層調(diào)整，實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式的更好轉(zhuǎn)型。經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，核心是技術(shù)升級，關(guān)鍵是產(chǎn)業(yè)改造。產(chǎn)業(yè)改造的重點是發(fā)展生產(chǎn)服務(wù)業(yè)和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新平臺或孵化器，而不是一般服務(wù)業(yè)和盲目放棄傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)。要科學(xué)認識和努力實踐“沒有落后的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)，只有落后的產(chǎn)業(yè)傳統(tǒng)”。要清醒地看到，即使到了發(fā)達社會，人類也不可能離開衣食住行以及與其相關(guān)的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)，差別僅僅在于傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)中加進了更多高科技，也就是目前我國開始實施的《中國制造2025》。轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式，核心是轉(zhuǎn)變生產(chǎn)方式（生產(chǎn)關(guān)系和生產(chǎn)力的總稱），關(guān)鍵是轉(zhuǎn)變產(chǎn)權(quán)組織方式，重點是轉(zhuǎn)變資源配置方式，入口是轉(zhuǎn)變投資方式和資源使用方式。這幾個方面的轉(zhuǎn)變，既是前后銜接的，又是邏輯遞進的。轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式要找到有效的“入口”。

“推動經(jīng)濟總量上臺階”，必須繼續(xù)堅持“兩個毫不動搖”和全面落實黨中央明確提出了“三個沒有變”。要在進一步全面深化國有企業(yè)改革的同時，進一步大力發(fā)展民營經(jīng)濟和進一步擴大對外開放。民營企業(yè)要實現(xiàn)更大發(fā)展，就必須努力踐行公司治理現(xiàn)代化，要積極參與國家發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的系統(tǒng)配套的同時，切實用好宏觀政策結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整的機遇，要在正確認識和科學(xué)把握人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化及其趨勢和科學(xué)理解與切實用好互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的過程中，努力尋求自身更大更好發(fā)展。

1、Introduction

The application domain of video monitoring system is more and more widely, especially the "Ping An City" promotes the rapid growth of video surveillance market, and the monitoring system of the scale are constantly expanding. The optical transceiver is the core of the monitoring system of transmission equipment, when the fault occurs, the whole system do not work normally, therefore, finding fault in the optical transceiver is very important, for the normal running of the whole system in the past, if the system fails, people often cannot discover it, and due to the large scale , investigation is time-consuming , laborious and low efficiency.

To design and realize the optical transceiver based on sensor and network technology and it can report its failure to system maintainer. The built-in temperature, humidity and voltage sensors can get real-time equipment information, and then transmit to the client, based on this information the latter will determine whether the device is normal. If the equipment failure, the client will tell the system maintainer through the mobile phone short message, voice, interface and acousto-optic four ways .During this time, there is not manual participation and it is finished by the control system automatically.

2、The composition of intelligent alarm transceiver and its system

The system is made up of three layer, and adjacent two layer can communicate by network. the first layer is network management, the second layer is transmitting management, the third layer is video acquisition and management. In every layer, the equipment has unique address.

In network management layer, the core equipment is network management card, and it has the unique IP address and can convert 485 signal to Ethernet signal.

In transmitting management layer, the core equipment is optical transceiver,the latter belong to the same network management card has the unique address. and its address is set from 0-255 by dial switch. following the same network management card, up to 256 optical transceivers. Transceiver can tell user its temperature , voltage, power and fiber state.

In video acquisition and management layer, the core equipment is the front-end equipment , for example, the high speed ball or the camera. and its address is set from 1-32 (the maximum channel number of current video optical transceiver is 32 ).

the sensor in camera collected the real-time state data of camera and then transmit to optical transceiver by 485 data line. and these data is transmitted to client at last by transceivers and network management card.if the fault happen, the latter will tell the user what happen through the short message, acousto-optic and speech.

3、the hardware design of intelligent warning　optical transceiver

The hardware part includes the realization of the detection of temperature ,voltage, power and fiber optical. 3.1the overall hardware structure design

the hardware structure is made up of MCU,I/O port and other component.

the main control MCU is STC12LE5A08S2,this chip has 2 independent serial port, and can simulate a serial port through the I/O port , so, total of 3 serial port. the first is responsible for communication with front-end equipment. Through this port, MCU can acquire the state data of frontend equipment, the second for 485 data communication, through it, MCU can communicate with higher network management card. the last for the acquisition of itself state data, through it, MCU can get the itself state data, such as temperature, voltage and video state.

3.2temperature detection scheme

Temperature acquisition is implemented by the DS18B20 scheme, the hardware structure diagram is the following figure 1:

In this scenario, the DS18B20 chip get real-time temperature data and then stored in the internal registers, and the controller convert the binary data to Decimal data.

3.3voltage detection scheme

The voltage detection circuit as shown in the following figure 2:

Adetection circuit get voltage division sampling through the resistor and transmit it to the I/O port of the SCM, and thenthe internal microcontroller A/D

Circuit to calculate the actual voltage.

3.4power and optical detection scheme

power and optical detection circuit as shown in Figure 3, the CPLD in the transmitterdetectedthe power failure signal

and then transmit a string of data to the CPLD of receiver that is responsible for decoding, if the MCU of receiver receives the power failure of transmitter and then it will query the state of optical fiber every 200 MS. If the optical fiber is normal, the MCU get the conclusion of power failure of transmitter. When the MCU of receiver is available, it poll state of optical fiber. If get fiber loss and don't receive the power failure of transmitter. The MCU will think optical fiber is broken.

4、Summary

Intelligent warning optical transceiver has realized the real-time monitoring of the state itself by sensor technology, and intelligent analysis of state data.

when it failed, it can notify the system maintenance personnel. So it improves work efficiency, especially in the monitoring system of the larger. However, when client polls the transceiver, and the latter transmit the data to client. And it cannot take the initiative to report the finding problems, which will be resolved in follow-up version.

References

[1]Liu Hailiang, Cao Jianian, Guo Fengli. Research and implementation of embedded intelligent home security system[J]. application technology, 2011.

[2]Li Ziyun. Intelligent home security system based on wireless network. The microprocessor, 2012.

[3]Jia Shifeng. The principle of sensor and sensor technology [M]. Beijing: Mechanical Industry Press, 2009.

[4]Xu Xiejun sensor and detection technique of [M]. Beijing: Publishing House of electronics industry, 2011.

[5]Xu Jian remote control security system design based on 3G wireless [J]. microcomputer and application, 2012

Research and implementation of intelligent alarm transceiver

Haobo long XiaolingTian

Aoshifiber&electronics Technology Co., Ltd.Guangdong Guangzhou Industrial University Huali Institute. Guangdong

Abstract:To design and implement a intelligent alarm transceiver, the sensor, such as temperature, voltage, video check. is used in transceiver. Then it analyses real-time acquisition data of sensor, if the transceiver is not working normally, and the results are sent to the host computer. And the latter send fault information to user by mobile phone. During this period, without artificial participation, to achieve the purpose of intelligent warning. it can improve the maintenance efficiency of transceiver.

Key words:security monitor, intelligent alarm, sensor technology, message alarm