涓流細(xì)雨

“Information on weather and climate, and its variability and change, is so embedded in our daily life -from daily weather forecasts to seasonal climate predictions - that at times it is easy to forget the amount of observations, research, computing and analysis that lies behind weather and climate information products. Today, the average weather forecast of five days in advance is as skillful as the two-day forecast twenty-five years ago and seasonal climate forecasts have become increasingly skillful. This has been made possible thanks to advances in remote sensing, including satellites, major improvements in science and dramatic increases in computer power. Scientific progress in meteorology and climatology in the last fifty years is indeed one of the most significant one in all scientific disciplines. ”

“有關(guān)天氣和氣候、及其變率和變化的信息，從每日天氣預(yù)報(bào)到季節(jié)性氣候預(yù)測(cè)，早已植入我們的日常生活。有時(shí)，人們不免忘記了天氣和氣候信息產(chǎn)品背后大量的觀測(cè)、研究、計(jì)算和分析。今天的五日平均天氣預(yù)報(bào)終已同二十五年前的兩日預(yù)報(bào)一樣純熟。季節(jié)性氣候預(yù)報(bào)已變得日益嫻熟。這要?dú)w功于包括衛(wèi)星在內(nèi)的遙感技術(shù)的發(fā)展、重大科學(xué)進(jìn)步和計(jì)算機(jī)能力的大幅提升。過(guò)去五十年，氣象和氣候科學(xué)的進(jìn)步在所有科學(xué)學(xué)科中確實(shí)可謂首屈一指?！?/p>

——在2015年世界氣象日來(lái)臨的時(shí)候，WMO主席M. Jarraud在致辭中，用上述文字描述了氣象信息與日常生活、氣象工作和成就。2015年世界氣象日的主題是“氣候知識(shí)支持氣候行動(dòng)”，這樣的主題也讓人聯(lián)想和期待年末世界氣候談判收獲好的結(jié)果。

“the plane would have been moving at close to 100 miles per hour, and that at that speed, when you start sliding, there’s really not much you can do. If there was a crosswind, that would have made the situation worse, because it could have caused the plane to turn like a weather vane into the wind.”

“飛機(jī)的速度應(yīng)該接近每小時(shí)100英里，在那樣的速度下滑行，實(shí)在沒(méi)有什么辦法。如果出現(xiàn)側(cè)風(fēng)的話會(huì)更糟，因?yàn)槟菚?huì)導(dǎo)致飛機(jī)像風(fēng)中的風(fēng)向標(biāo)一樣轉(zhuǎn)向?！?/p>

——2015年3月5日當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間11時(shí)，美國(guó)達(dá)美航空一架客機(jī)在紐約拉瓜迪亞機(jī)場(chǎng)降落時(shí)轉(zhuǎn)向并瞬間沖出13號(hào)跑道。飛機(jī)降落時(shí)當(dāng)?shù)卦谙麓笱?，飛機(jī)機(jī)頭沖破護(hù)欄，在落入海灣前一刻停住。機(jī)上127名乘客和5名機(jī)組人員中沒(méi)有嚴(yán)重受傷者。飛機(jī)駕駛員在接受紐約時(shí)報(bào)采訪談到飛機(jī)落地情形時(shí)如是說(shuō)。據(jù)悉7000英尺長(zhǎng)的13號(hào)跑道是該機(jī)場(chǎng)2個(gè)跑道之一，部分跑道架設(shè)在鋼柱之上延伸到海中，因此結(jié)冰速度極快，加上跑道盡頭周圍就是凍結(jié)的海灣，幾乎容不得降落飛機(jī)出現(xiàn)半點(diǎn)差錯(cuò)。

“Growth in government demand will be stronger than in the commercial world,” said Villain. “Civilian government agencies in established and developing space countries [will] use small satellites for three purposes: operational missions — principally in Earth observation— in-flight technology validation and demonstration, and engineering education.”

“政府需求的增長(zhǎng)將比商業(yè)需要還要快，已經(jīng)和正在開(kāi)發(fā)空間技術(shù)國(guó)家的民用政府部門將小衛(wèi)星用于3個(gè)目的：以地球觀測(cè)為主的業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)目、航空技術(shù)驗(yàn)證及演示和工程教育?！?/p>

——?dú)W洲咨詢公司（Euroconsult）在其最新發(fā)表的題為“小衛(wèi)星市場(chǎng)展望”的報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)，從現(xiàn)在到2019年將有510顆小衛(wèi)星升空，報(bào)告編輯者、公司的首席顧問(wèn)Rachel Villain就未來(lái)小衛(wèi)星發(fā)展的驅(qū)動(dòng)來(lái)源做出上述表態(tài)。小衛(wèi)星（small satellite）按照其質(zhì)量范圍（從1kg到500kg）可以分為納米衛(wèi)星（nanosat）、立方衛(wèi)星（cubesat）、微衛(wèi)星（microsat）和小型衛(wèi)星（minisat）4種。

“The big data revolution could lead to currently unimagined uses for the data we receive from satellites. Entrepreneurs could come up with new applications and ideas for mashing up data. But the data itself should, I believe, be regarded as a public good. How to guarantee this, in a world where public budgets are squeezed and space exploration is becoming increasingly affordable for private players, is a question that deserves serious thought and active engagement.”

“大數(shù)據(jù)革命能夠讓我們當(dāng)前的衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)得到意想不到的應(yīng)用。企業(yè)家能夠提出新應(yīng)用和不斷深加工數(shù)據(jù)的思想。但是，我認(rèn)為數(shù)據(jù)本身屬于公共財(cái)產(chǎn)。在目前公共預(yù)算到處緊縮，而私人可承擔(dān)的空間探索不斷增加的形勢(shì)下，如何保證這一屬性，是一個(gè)需要嚴(yán)肅思考和積極取得共識(shí)的問(wèn)題。”

——達(dá)沃斯論壇（世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇）是具有全球影響的輿論前沿，2015年1月24日，美國(guó)NOAA局長(zhǎng)沙利文在于1月21日同期開(kāi)始的第45屆達(dá)沃斯論壇的論壇博客上發(fā)表題為“天基大數(shù)據(jù)如何幫助地球上的生命”的博文，強(qiáng)調(diào)了天基氣象資料對(duì)全球福祉的不可替代性，同時(shí)敏銳指出在私企深度參與背景下，如何保持天基數(shù)據(jù)的公共屬性這一嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。

“The successful completion of the CDR for this scientifically advanced instrument allows the program to move into the manufacturing, assembly, integration and testing phase with instrument completion expected in early 2017”

“針對(duì)這一科學(xué)上先進(jìn)設(shè)備CDR的成功完成，使得我們進(jìn)入到制造、組裝、集成和試驗(yàn)階段，預(yù)計(jì)在2017年初將全面完成儀器的制作”

——由貝爾航空公司（Ball Aerospace）和韓國(guó)航空研究所（KARI）共同開(kāi)發(fā)研制的地球靜止環(huán)境監(jiān)測(cè)分光儀（Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer，GEMS）近日完成了關(guān)鍵性設(shè)計(jì)審查（Critical Design Review，CDR），貝爾公司副總裁Cary Ludtke發(fā)表了上述看法。據(jù)悉，GEMS在紫外和可見(jiàn)光波段監(jiān)測(cè)穿越邊界層的污染事件，計(jì)劃隨韓國(guó)GEO Kompsat 2B衛(wèi)星升空，將成為世界上首顆位于地球靜止軌道上的空氣質(zhì)量監(jiān)測(cè)衛(wèi)星。該衛(wèi)星將提供朝鮮半島以及亞太更廣泛地球每小時(shí)的臭氧、臭氧前體物和氣溶膠的觀測(cè)，有助于改進(jìn)污染事件的早期預(yù)警和認(rèn)識(shí)長(zhǎng)期氣候變化。

“Instead of continuing down the path of large government-owned satellites that are prone to cost overruns and delays, we must look outside the box for new methods of providing essential weather data. For example, there are private companies such as PlanetIQ, Spire, GeoOptics, Tempus Global Data and HySpecIQ that have plans to launch constellations of GPS Radio Occultation and Hyperspectral Sounding satellites, two sources of data that can greatly enhance our forecasting ability. Considering options that reduce the burden on massive government satellite systems will allow us to more accurately predict the weather.”

“與其繼續(xù)走大型的政府擁有衛(wèi)星卻容易超出預(yù)算和延誤的路子，我們必須轉(zhuǎn)變思路，尋求提供關(guān)鍵天氣數(shù)據(jù)的新方法。例如，PlanetIQ，Spire, GeoOptics, Tempus Global Data和HySpecIQ這樣的私企已經(jīng)計(jì)劃發(fā)射GPS掩星族群和超譜探測(cè)衛(wèi)星，兩個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)源能夠極大強(qiáng)化我們的預(yù)報(bào)能力?？紤]各種選擇和減少政府衛(wèi)星系統(tǒng)巨大負(fù)擔(dān)將帶來(lái)更加準(zhǔn)確的天氣預(yù)報(bào)?！?/p>

——2015年2月12日，美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)環(huán)境分委員會(huì)針對(duì)未來(lái)NOAA衛(wèi)星資料覆蓋的空白召開(kāi)了“縮小差距：美國(guó)天氣衛(wèi)星和天氣預(yù)報(bào)（Bridging the Gap: America’s Weather Satellites and Weather Forecasting）”聽(tīng)證會(huì)，環(huán)境分委員會(huì)主席Jim Bridenstine就彌補(bǔ)NOAA和NASA衛(wèi)星發(fā)射檔期存在的空白期，在聽(tīng)證發(fā)言中發(fā)表了上述支持私企介入的看法。據(jù)悉，2016財(cái)年NOAA衛(wèi)星預(yù)算超過(guò)20億美元，占NOAA總預(yù)算的大約40%，而在2008年這一比例僅為25%左右，不到10億美元。

“KIAPS (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) has been developing a new global NWP model(KIM, KIAPS Integrated Model) as well as an advanced data assimilation system since 2010. Science 2013, we have implemented and investigated Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system to a cubed sphere model of NCEP CAM-SE, while developing KIM. It would be very easy to replace the model by KIM when released because the grid structure between CAM-SE and KIM is same.”

“自2010年以來(lái)，KIAPS（韓國(guó)大氣預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)所）一直開(kāi)發(fā)新的全球NWP模式（KIM，KIAPS 綜合模式）。2013年以來(lái)，我們?cè)陂_(kāi)發(fā)KIM的同時(shí)，還在探討局地集合轉(zhuǎn)化卡爾曼濾波（LETKF）數(shù)據(jù)同化系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用于具有立方球格點(diǎn)的NCEP CAM-SE模式。因?yàn)镃AM-SE和KIM的格點(diǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)相同，一旦（LETKF）開(kāi)發(fā)完成，再用KIM替代很容易?！?/p>

——2015年初美國(guó)氣象學(xué)會(huì)年會(huì)上，來(lái)自KIAPS的專家用上述話語(yǔ)介紹了可能是支撐韓國(guó)下一代天氣預(yù)報(bào)模式框架的開(kāi)發(fā)情況。雖然KIAPS開(kāi)發(fā)產(chǎn)品與氣象業(yè)務(wù)部門應(yīng)用還有距離，但其高度計(jì)劃性的時(shí)間進(jìn)程，技術(shù)上本土開(kāi)發(fā)為主、模式和同化系統(tǒng)并行、同時(shí)借助NCEP模式等外力的戰(zhàn)略和做法已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。

"COSMIC-2 is Worth the Fight. COSMIC is the thirdmost-important data that goes into [the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts] forecasts. It’s interesting that it’s No. 3 even though its cost is a lot less than some of the other things. The more opportunities for the community to secure critical data, the better our options. If there was not $100 million from Taiwan on the table to make this a very cost-effective investment for the U.S. taxpayer, then I think we would not be pushing COSMIC-2. That’s really the game changer in this budgetary environment. "

“COSMIC-2值得一搏。COSMIC是歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品的第三重要數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源。這一點(diǎn)很有意思，盡管位于第三，但其費(fèi)用要比其他一些來(lái)源要少很多?？茖W(xué)共同體獲得關(guān)鍵數(shù)據(jù)的機(jī)會(huì)越多，我們就會(huì)有更好的選擇。如果沒(méi)有來(lái)自臺(tái)方1億美元的公開(kāi)投入使得該項(xiàng)目成為美國(guó)納稅人劃算的投入，我想我們也不會(huì)去推進(jìn)COSMIC-2，在目前預(yù)算環(huán)境下，這一點(diǎn)改變了博弈取向?！?/p>

——UCAR主席Thomas Bogdan于2015年2月2日在走訪《空間新聞》編輯部時(shí)發(fā)表上述評(píng)論。2012年擔(dān)任UCAR主席之前的6年，Bogdan一直是NOAA空間天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心的主任。他目前是UCAR主持的美國(guó)和中國(guó)臺(tái)灣聯(lián)合COSMIC（Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate，氣象、電離層和氣候衛(wèi)星探測(cè)系統(tǒng)）項(xiàng)目的首席顧問(wèn)。COSMIC項(xiàng)目是NCAR繼HAO（High Altitude Observatory）之后目前主要的天基項(xiàng)目。面對(duì)美國(guó)會(huì)議員登針對(duì)COSMIC-2項(xiàng)目“有更好、但非關(guān)鍵”的質(zhì)疑，Bogdan先生從技術(shù)和效益兩個(gè)角度，捍衛(wèi)項(xiàng)目的繼續(xù)。據(jù)悉，COSMIC-2項(xiàng)目總經(jīng)費(fèi)預(yù)算在2億美元左右，目前已經(jīng)列入NOAA官方項(xiàng)目，并獲得2014—2015兩個(gè)財(cái)年經(jīng)費(fèi)支持，美國(guó)氣象界對(duì)2016財(cái)年項(xiàng)目繼續(xù)獲得經(jīng)費(fèi)支持也持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度。