□ 文/張煥波

●（作者系中國國際經(jīng)濟交流中心副研究員)

在一個充滿變數(shù)和復雜性的世界，世界各國和地區(qū)需要共同努力，以深化經(jīng)貿(mào)合作為抓手，加強互聯(lián)互通建設(shè)和產(chǎn)業(yè)對接，構(gòu)建和平發(fā)展與合作共贏的新型國際關(guān)系。從全球來看，近年來全球經(jīng)濟、政治的重心向亞洲地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移，正在形成歐洲、美洲、亞洲多極化的均衡發(fā)展局面；發(fā)展中國家和新興經(jīng)濟體對世界經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻增加，在全球經(jīng)濟中的比重上升，按購買力平價法計算的發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟總量從2013年開始超過發(fā)達國家。以TPP、TTIP、RCEP等為代表的新的自由貿(mào)易和投資規(guī)則正在加快形成。以“數(shù)字化、智能化、綠色化”為特征的全球新產(chǎn)業(yè)、新技術(shù)、新業(yè)態(tài)、新模式不斷涌現(xiàn)，這無疑給世界經(jīng)濟的平穩(wěn)恢復和長期可持續(xù)發(fā)展注入了新的動力和活力。當前，世界經(jīng)濟仍處在國際金融危機后的深度調(diào)整和曲折恢復的過程當中，世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和各國政策取向都出現(xiàn)了嚴重分化，美聯(lián)儲正在醞釀加息，而歐洲和日本央行仍在加大量化寬松政策力度，美元升值和全球資本流動及匯率波動加劇，新興經(jīng)濟體金融市場動蕩增加了全球金融不穩(wěn)定性，各國宏觀政策不同步的影響更加明顯，地緣政治風險等非經(jīng)濟因素導致部分地區(qū)動蕩加劇，世界經(jīng)濟呈現(xiàn)低增長、不平衡、多風險的主要特征。

目前，在“一帶一路”倡議背景下，亞歐合作站在了一個新的歷史起點上，面臨新的巨大合作空間和共同發(fā)展機遇。中國國家主席習近平2013年先后提出了建設(shè)“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟帶”和“21世紀海上絲綢之路”，即“一帶一路”合作倡議，具有重大的現(xiàn)實意義和深遠的歷史意義，表現(xiàn)了中國從經(jīng)濟大國邁向經(jīng)濟強國正確的義利觀、歷史觀、發(fā)展觀、安全觀和世界觀。“一帶一路”倡議將會架起和平、增長、改革、文明的四座橋梁，并將促使中國與沿帶沿路國家和地區(qū)努力打造政治互信、經(jīng)濟融合、文化包容的利益共同體、命運共同體和責任共同體，構(gòu)建各方融合發(fā)展的大格局，共同擔當維護世界和平與發(fā)展的重任，共享發(fā)展的機遇和利益?！耙粠б宦贰背h受到了國際社會的廣泛認可和支持。歐洲各界對“一帶一路”倡議已經(jīng)有了較客觀的認識，表達了積極的態(tài)度。英國、德國、法國、意大利、盧森堡等歐洲國家積極參與亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行，為亞歐國家深化金融合作樹立了良好榜樣?！耙粠б宦贰睉?zhàn)略背景下的亞歐合作，不但將為亞歐各國和地區(qū)人民帶來實實在在的利益，也將為全球經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展注入強大的動力，開辟人類歷史新的紀元?！耙粠б宦贰睉?zhàn)略的一頭是活躍的東亞經(jīng)濟圈，一頭是發(fā)達的歐洲經(jīng)濟圈。亞歐大陸是世界上面積最大、人口最多、國家最多的大陸，也是發(fā)展機會最多、合作潛力最大、共享利益最多的大陸。近年來，亞歐各領(lǐng)域合作與交流不斷深入，取得了令人矚目的成就，但是亞歐合作水平與兩個大陸本身的地位相比還有較大差距，還存在一些瓶頸。例如，在交通運輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)方面，存在聯(lián)而不通，通而不暢的問題；在產(chǎn)業(yè)和項目對接方面，還缺乏有效的平臺和模式；在貿(mào)易投資方面，仍存在一些摩擦和掣肘。亞歐互聯(lián)互通既指交通、管道、園區(qū)等“硬件”基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的互聯(lián)互通，也包括貿(mào)易投資、民心文化等“軟件”基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的互聯(lián)互通。概括來看，亞歐互聯(lián)互通包括以下六個方面的內(nèi)容。

一是推動基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施互聯(lián)互通。在歷史上，任何一個國家和地區(qū)，創(chuàng)造性的連接都會使區(qū)域經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系產(chǎn)生巨變，惠及更廣闊的地域。新亞歐大陸橋沿橋綜合交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)已取得重要進展，進一步提升和完善新亞歐大陸橋各節(jié)點交通實施和便利性，將成為推動亞歐基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施合作的關(guān)鍵抓手。同時，亞歐海底光纜和跨海大通道建設(shè)也需要加快推進。未來亞歐將形成涵蓋海運水運網(wǎng)、高速公路網(wǎng)、高速鐵路網(wǎng)、航空網(wǎng)、通信光纜網(wǎng)、信息高速公路網(wǎng)等在內(nèi)的亞歐高水準基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施互聯(lián)互通網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

二是促進貿(mào)易投資自由化便利化。推進貿(mào)易投資便利化，逐步形成以點帶線，從線到片，促進形成互利共贏、多元平衡、安全高效的開放型經(jīng)濟體系。歐盟是世界上最大區(qū)域經(jīng)濟組織和經(jīng)濟最發(fā)達和規(guī)模最大經(jīng)濟體，是海上絲綢之路和陸上絲綢之路的終點。亞洲是最具發(fā)展活力和潛力的地區(qū)之一，擁有世界總?cè)丝?0%，經(jīng)濟總量占全球的三分之一，已經(jīng)成為世界經(jīng)濟的第三極。亞歐大陸不斷深化經(jīng)貿(mào)合作，將為世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展提供不竭動力。應把構(gòu)建亞歐大陸自貿(mào)區(qū)提上日程，加快研究，爭取早日在亞歐大陸建立一個高標準、寬領(lǐng)域的全球開放性多變貿(mào)易和投資體系。

三是促進和深化金融合作。近年來，亞歐各國在平等互利基礎(chǔ)上開展的一系列金融合作，成果不斷顯現(xiàn)，對于維護區(qū)域金融穩(wěn)定、促進區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展起到了十分重要的作用。整體來看，亞歐各國金融合作還處于起步階段，需要進一步加強合作的廣度和深度，在銀行、債券、保險、衍生品市場、外匯市場等領(lǐng)域積極合作，加強貨幣互換，推進國際貨幣體系改革。同時，亞歐金融合作也需要抓手。中國倡導的亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行，得到了除亞洲國家的積極參與,歐洲國家也積極的響應，例如，英國、德國、法國、意大利、盧森堡等國家積極參與，這為亞歐國家金融合作提供了一個重要平臺。

四是加強產(chǎn)業(yè)互動和對接。當前，世界正處于大調(diào)整、大變革、大發(fā)展和大突破的非常時期，以“數(shù)字化、智能化、綠色化”為特征的新產(chǎn)業(yè)新技術(shù)新業(yè)態(tài)新模式不斷涌現(xiàn)。亞歐國家間產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展階段，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、研發(fā)水平等都有很大的不同，具有很強的互補性。在新一輪產(chǎn)業(yè)革命即將拉開大幕的背景下，亞歐國家應重塑區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)布局，優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈、價值鏈和供應鏈，推動上下游產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈和關(guān)聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè)跨國界、跨區(qū)域協(xié)同發(fā)展，共同提升區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)配套能力和綜合競爭力。

五是推進亞歐各國民心相通。國之交在于民相親，民相親在于心相通。民心相通是亞歐互聯(lián)互通的社會根基。民心相通的深層基礎(chǔ)是不同文化的相互相互交流、相互學習和相互融合。亞歐各國應立足于各相關(guān)國家多元文明的群體性復興，通過提升文化的相互開放水平，推動不同文明交流碰撞，形成更具寬容精神的共同文化和永恒價值，匯聚和釋放文化促進發(fā)展的強大正能量，實現(xiàn)更有效率、更具包容性的增長。應通過加強人民友好往來，增進相互了解和傳統(tǒng)友誼。要促進人員、技術(shù)、服務(wù)在區(qū)域內(nèi)的自由流動，鼓勵就業(yè)和人才市場相互開放，拓展旅游合作，加強文化產(chǎn)業(yè)合作，共建世代友好家園。

In a world full of uncertainty and complexity,every country and region needs to work jointly to deepen economic and trade cooperation,furhter enhancing mutual connectivity and industrial connection and building new international relations characterized by peaceful development and mutually beneficial cooperation.From the global perspective,the global politics and economic focus is shifting to Asia in recent years,which helps make a balanced development situation multi-polarized by the Europe,the Americas and the Asia.The developing countries and the emerging economies are increasing their contribution to the world economic growth as shown by the increase of their proportion in the global economy.As measured by the Purchasing-power Parity,the economic gross of the developing countries has exceeded that of the developed countries since 2013.The new rules of free trade and investment represented by TPP,TTIP and RCEP are being formed at a rapid speed.The global new industries,new technologies,new formats and new models characterized by “Being Digital,Intelligent and Green”are emerging in succession,which will no doubt inject impetus and vitality to the smooth recovery and longterm sustainable development of the world economy.Currently,the world economy plagued by the international financial crisis is still trapped in the sharp adjustment and tortuous recovery.As a result,serious differentiations occur both in the world economic development and the states’policy orientation.The FED is planning to tighten rate;the European and Japan Banks are still intensifying the efforts of Quantitative Easing;the appreciation of dollars,the global capital flow and the currency fluctuations are becoming more violent;the turbulence on financial markets of the emerging economic bodies increases the instability of global finance;the effect generated by the asynchronism of states’macro policy appears more obvious;moreover,the non-economic factors,like the geopolitical risks,are leading to increasing upheavals in different areas.All in all,the world economy is now facing up with a low growth,an imbalance and more risks.

At present,under the background of the “Belt and Road”initiative,the Eurasia cooperation stands at a new historical starting point and enjoys large cooperation space and common development opportunities.The President of China Xi Jinping raised the initiative of building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road,namely the “Belt and Road”cooperation initiative in 2013,which is of great realistic significance and far-reaching historic significance.It has shown China’s correct view on righteousness and profits,on history,development,safety and world view when China is developing from an economic giant towards an economic power.Such an initiative will build four bridges of peace,growth,reform,and civilization;moreover,it will prompt China and the countries and regions along the Belt and Road to endeavor to build a community of shared interests,destiny and responsibility featured with mutual political trust,economic integration,and cultural inclusiveness.In doing so,each party involved will enjoy an integrated development,assume the responsibility of maintaining world peace and development,and share the opportunities and interests therein.This initiative has been widely recognized by the international community and earned lots of support.Take the Europeans for an example.People from all walks of life there have a more objective understanding of the initiative of the “Belt and Road”,and have shown a positive attitude.United Kingdom,Germany,France,Italy,Luxembourg and other European countries have actively participated in Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,which has set up a good example for countries in Asia and Europe to deepen the financial cooperation.Under the strategic background of the “Belt and Road”,the cooperation between Asia and Europe will not only deliver tangible benefits to the people of countries and regions in these two continents,but also creat strong impetus for the sustainable development of the global economy.In a sense,it will help to open a new era in the history of mankind.The “Belt and Road”strategy connects the vibrant East Asia economic circle at one end and the developed European economic circle at the other end.Eurasia is the world’s largest and most populous continent with the largest number of states.Also it remains the continent enjoying the most opportunities for development,the greatest potentials for cooperation and the largest shared benefits.In recent years,Eurasian cooperation and exchanges in all fields have witnessed a continued deepening with remarkable achievements made,but when compared with the status of the two continents themselves,the level of cooperation still needs to be improved with bottlenecks every now and then.Take transportation network for instance.The transportation channels are sometimes so poor that they seem not to exist at all with many a block problem.Besides,effective platforms and models are absent for the coordination of industries and projects.This is also true in trade and investment: there are still some frictions and barriers that need to be removed.By Eurasian connectivity,it refers to the connectivity not only of “hardware”infrastructures,such as traffic,pipes,parks,but it also denotes that of “software”infrastructure,such as trade and investment,popular culture and others.To be specific,Eurasian connectivity consists of the following six areas.

Firstly,we should lift the infrastructure connectivity to a high level.Throughout human history,whatever country or region creative connectivity takes place in,it will inaugurate an amazing change in the regional economic links and benefit a wider region.Because significant progresses have been seen in the construction of the integrated transportation infrastructure along the New Eurasian Continent Bridge,what we need is a step further.The key here is to make all the junctions better connected with more convenience,and this is what we mean in promoting Eurasian cooperation in infrastructure.Meanwhile,Eurasia transcontinental submarine optical cable construction also needs to be accelerated.In the future,a high level infrastructure connectivity network will come into exist in Asia and Europe,which will cover the sea and water transportation network,the expressway network,the high-speed rail network,the aviation network,the communications optical cable network,the information highway network and so on.

Secondly,we should make trade and investment freer and more convenient.By doing so,Asia and Europe can gradually develop,from a dot to a belt line,and from lines to areas,an open economic system characterized by being mutually beneficial,multiple and balanced,win-win,safe and efficient.As the greatest regional economic organization and the world’s largest and most developed economy,EU is the end of the Maritime Silk Road and the Overland Silk Road.Remaining as one of the most vigorous and promising regions,Asia has become the third pole of world economy,with 60% of the world population and one-third of the world economic gross.If Europe and Asia continue to deepen economic and trade cooperation,this will provide an inexhaustible motive force for world economic development.Building a free trade zone of Eurasia should be put on the agenda.Pertinent researches need to be accelerated,and all parties should strive to establish an open and alert trade and investment system of a high standard with a wide range.

Thirdly,we should promote and deepen financial cooperation.In recent years,Asian and European countries have carried out a series of financial cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual benefit with remarkable achievements been made.Such a cooperation has contributed greatly to regional financial stability and economic development.However,the financial cooperation between Asian and European countries is still in its initial stages,which needs to be further strengthened both in breadth and depth.Active collaboration should be made in banking,securities,insurance,derivative markets,foreign exchange markets and other fields,and both parties need to enhance the currency swaps and promote the reform of international monetary system.Meanwhile,Eurasian financial cooperation need more specific measures.Not only have the Asian countries participated actively in Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank advocated by China,but the European countries have also responded positively to it.For example,the United Kingdom,Germany,France,Italy,Luxembourg and other countries are actively involved in it,which provides an important platform for the financial cooperation between Asian and European countries.

Fourth,we should strengthen industrial interaction and connection.At present,the world is undergoing a critical time full of profound adjustment,great changes,dramatic developments and breakthroughs.Moreover,new industry,new formats and new models characterized by “Being Digital,Intelligent and Green”are emerging constantly.Dispite the differences in industrial development stages,industrial structures and research and development levels,the industries in Asia and Europe are highly complementary to each other.When a new round of industrial revolution is around the corner,Asian and European countries should reshape the regional industrial layout,optimize the industrial chain,value chain and supply chain,promote the cross-border-and-region collaborative development of the upstream and downstream industry chains and the associated industries,and work jointly to upgrade the capacity and competitiveness of regional industries.

Fifth,we should promote the deep understanding between Asian and European countries.Friendly exchange between countries lies in amity between the people,while the amity lies in deep understanding.If the understanding is deep enough,the foundation for Eurasian connectivity is solid.Such an understanding is deeply rooted in mutual exchanges,mutual learning and mutual integration of different cultures.Based on the mass revival of diverse cultures in each country involved,Asia and Europe should be open and inclusive to cultural diversity,promote cultural exchanges among different civilizations,develop a common culture and eternal value characterized by tolerance,bring them together to release strong positive energy,and achieve more efficient and more inclusive growth.Asia and Europe also need to promote friendly exchanges among different peoples to enhance mutual understanding and traditional friendship.Both need to promote the free movement of labor,technology,services in the region,encourage employment and markets to open up to each other,expand tourism cooperation and strengthen cooperation in the cultural industry,so as to build a friendly home from generation to generation.