Zheng Changde Jia Min

（School of Economics，Southwest University for Nationalities，Chengdu，610041，Sichuan，China）

JOURNAL OF ETHNOLOGY，VOL.6，NO.6，01-12，2015 （CN51-1731/C，in Chinese）

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1674-9391.2015.06.01

Abstract：

Using the methodology of the HP filter （HodrickPrescott Filter），this article calculates the potential economic growth rate and volatility of the eight ethnic provinces and regions as well as that of the whole country，and using ?the theory of economic cycles，the articles creates six large stages.Through a special research on economic data from the three cycles from 1978 to 2014，the article discovers that the potential economic growth rate of the eight ethnic provinces and regions was not only high，but moreover，exhibited an increasing trend.

The article noticed as well that after 2008，no matter was the actual economic growth rate or the potential economic growth，the entire country，including the eight ethnic provinces and regions，exhibited a decreasing trend.However，their potential economic growth rate was still high.There was a large gap between the actual economic growth rate and the potential economic growth rate.The actual economic growth rate was obviously lower that the potential economic growth rate.Part of economic growth of the eight ethnic provinces and regions was influenced by the nationwide economic decline，and meanwhile，its potential economic growth rate was also declining.

The article states that，generally speaking，most ethnic regions have not yet stepped into the adjustment era of the “New Normal”，therefore，there is still a great potential and space for maintaining highspeed economic growth.The article also states that the economy of the “New Normal”，except for some decline in the speed of growth，is more of a development opportunity.Ethnic minority areas should actively adapt to the “New Normal”，grasp the opportunity，and promote sustainable，“l(fā)eaping” development.Thus，

the article puts forward some suggestions as follows：

1.Constructing and perfecting an inclusive system.To do this，first，economic freedom is required，and the market should play a decisive role in resource allocation;secondly，property rights should be clearly defined and protected;and thirdly，there must be a fair and legal competitive ?environment.

2.Ensuring its economic growth speed is higher than the national average.If the ethnic minority areas plan to step into a comprehensively welloff society by 2020 together with the whole nation，and realize the great rejuvenation of Chinese nation by 2050，its growth speed must be higher than the national average growth level.

3.Transforming the system of economic growth.The most important thing for this point is to create a healthy business environment，and promote innovation in the public.

4.Promoting industrial structure through extending the industrial chain and application of the internet.Strengthening the infrastructure construction of Internet， relying on “Internet plus”， ?and expanding product market are of great significance for the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.

5.Constructing and perfecting the method for evaluating local government performance.The evaluation should shift from local GDP to local national income，from local GDP to GEP （Gross Ecosystem Production）

Key Words： potential economic growth rate;New Normal;ethnic areas;HP ?Filter

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