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        環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系研究

        2014-08-27 10:04:25姚延婷陳萬(wàn)明李曉寧
        關(guān)鍵詞:農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)環(huán)境友好VAR模型

        姚延婷+陳萬(wàn)明+李曉寧

        收稿日期:2014-03-30

        作者簡(jiǎn)介:姚延婷,博士生,講師,主要研究方向?yàn)檗r(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)與科技政策。

        基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家社科基金項(xiàng)目“縮小我國(guó)居民收入差距過(guò)大的途徑和政策研究:基于初次分配效率與公平的視角”(編號(hào):10XJY0012);陜西省科學(xué)技術(shù)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(軟科學(xué))“環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)及推進(jìn)路徑研究:以陜西省為例”(編號(hào):2013KRM25)。

        摘要推進(jìn)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)模式轉(zhuǎn)型、農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要途徑。本文首先從理論角度分析了環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的區(qū)別,認(rèn)為二者本質(zhì)相同但在創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)要素、知識(shí)供給源等方面存在差異,在此基礎(chǔ)上理清環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。其次,引入環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣程度為過(guò)渡指標(biāo),運(yùn)用VAR模型從實(shí)證角度分析環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的長(zhǎng)期動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明:在整體上,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新每增加1%,引起農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)增加0.375%,而環(huán)境友好技術(shù)推廣程度每增加1%,則引起農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)增加0.542%;在短期內(nèi),環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新在滯后2期與滯后3期才緩慢地顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用,具有滯后性;在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi),環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推廣程度對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推進(jìn)作用是緩慢且長(zhǎng)期有效的,而農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新持續(xù)的動(dòng)力,對(duì)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的推廣起到先強(qiáng)后弱的促進(jìn)作用。最后建議從促進(jìn)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新成果轉(zhuǎn)化、完善環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新政策機(jī)制、改革環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新資金投入制度等方面進(jìn)行政策調(diào)整,使得環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新更有效地促進(jìn)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。

        關(guān)鍵詞環(huán)境友好;農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新;農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng);VAR模型

        中圖分類號(hào)F323文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼A文章編號(hào)1002-2104(2014)08-0122-09doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2014.08.016

        我國(guó)2014年中央一號(hào)文件連續(xù)第十一年聚焦“三農(nóng)”,農(nóng)業(yè)的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)地位始終未變。一直以來(lái),科學(xué)技術(shù)是農(nóng)業(yè)的第一生產(chǎn)力,農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與推廣無(wú)疑是促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展和農(nóng)民增收,進(jìn)而解決好“三農(nóng)”問(wèn)題、促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)方式轉(zhuǎn)型的有效途徑。然而,伴隨著全球氣候變暖、土地污染嚴(yán)重、農(nóng)業(yè)資源枯竭等環(huán)境問(wèn)題的出現(xiàn),環(huán)境因素已經(jīng)逐漸成為制約農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)發(fā)展的最大瓶頸之一。在現(xiàn)實(shí)條件下,農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新不得不把環(huán)境因素納入到考慮范圍。基于此,以低投入、綠色、可持續(xù)性為目標(biāo)的環(huán)境友好型農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)逐步成為農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的發(fā)展方向。

        歷次興起的科技革命不斷證實(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與技術(shù)創(chuàng)新之間存在一種互動(dòng)關(guān)系,即相互促進(jìn)、互為條件的。然而,針對(duì)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新而言,由于環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新一方面要克服諸如體制障礙、制度障礙等傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新具有的系統(tǒng)失靈問(wèn)題,另一方面還要解決由于環(huán)境惡化、資源短缺、生態(tài)失衡等變量引起的諸多新問(wèn)題,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系是否和傳統(tǒng)觀念一致,還需要從理論和實(shí)證的角度進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證。本文正是基于這樣的背景展開(kāi)研究。

        1文獻(xiàn)綜述

        自1992年里約峰會(huì)提出“環(huán)境友好”(Environmentally friendly)理念以來(lái),其內(nèi)容得到不斷的豐富和發(fā)展,并已經(jīng)延伸到了農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)域。學(xué)者們首先肯定了環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)的重要性, 如Jaffe 和 Palmer[1]較早通過(guò)實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn)環(huán)境友好技術(shù)的擴(kuò)散確實(shí)有利于“減排控污”,從而有利于農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)環(huán)境的改善;Bruce D等[2]也毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)地肯定了農(nóng)業(yè)在社會(huì)、環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟(jì)層面的可持續(xù)發(fā)展不但要求農(nóng)戶的創(chuàng)新,也需要再在商品和價(jià)值鏈其它方面的創(chuàng)新,包括基于環(huán)境友好層面的農(nóng)業(yè)新方法、農(nóng)業(yè)新技術(shù)等方面的規(guī)則和治理;Jay Shankar Singh、Sharon L.Forbes等[3-4]以不同的環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)為例,認(rèn)為該技術(shù)可以充分利用環(huán)境資源,提供了滿足農(nóng)業(yè)需求的所需潛力,有利于農(nóng)業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。

        基于對(duì)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的認(rèn)可,國(guó)內(nèi)外許多學(xué)者近幾年已經(jīng)展開(kāi)了對(duì)該理論的相關(guān)探索,主要集中在技術(shù)特性、影響因素、激勵(lì)政策等方面。國(guó)外方面,如Susmita Dasgupta等[5]對(duì)孟加拉國(guó)稻農(nóng)使用IPM(綜合蟲害管理)和常規(guī)化學(xué)技術(shù)耕作的結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比,結(jié)果表明IPM稻田養(yǎng)殖的生產(chǎn)力與傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)顯著不同,降低了農(nóng)藥成本,更具備健康效益和生態(tài)效益,比傳統(tǒng)的水稻種植更有利可圖,然而,由于諸如IPM等環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)的外部性問(wèn)題,使得農(nóng)民很難單獨(dú)采用這種技術(shù);Kathy S. Kremer[6]在環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的影響因素方面提出了獨(dú)到的見(jiàn)解,他的團(tuán)隊(duì)研究美國(guó)愛(ài)荷華州農(nóng)民采納新型土壤氮技術(shù)的決策過(guò)程,結(jié)果表明技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的復(fù)雜性極大地影響農(nóng)戶采納該項(xiàng)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)的決策,此后,Haki Pamuk[7]和Benoit[8]等學(xué)者通過(guò)實(shí)證研究也得出類似的結(jié)果;而Travis J. Lybbert[9]則認(rèn)為發(fā)展中國(guó)家有諸多因素制約貧困農(nóng)民獲得和使用新的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)技術(shù),提出了10項(xiàng)政策措施促進(jìn)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)的采納和擴(kuò)散,其中包括鼓勵(lì)公共和私人之間的互補(bǔ)性農(nóng)業(yè)研究、幫助減輕風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、在信息和預(yù)測(cè)領(lǐng)域有更多的投資等。國(guó)內(nèi)方面,沈宇丹等[10]率先提出了環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的概念并分析了我國(guó)化肥產(chǎn)業(yè)政策對(duì)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的影響效應(yīng);李學(xué)術(shù)等[11]從新農(nóng)村建設(shè)目標(biāo)與當(dāng)前面臨的嚴(yán)峻的生態(tài)環(huán)境問(wèn)題等需求的角度提出了我國(guó)環(huán)境友好技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的主要領(lǐng)域;葛繼紅等[12]以配方施肥技術(shù)為例,對(duì)農(nóng)戶采用環(huán)境友好型農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)行為研究,研究結(jié)果表明科學(xué)施肥能力越強(qiáng)、示范戶、拿到配方卡、參加培訓(xùn)次數(shù)越多及所在鄉(xiāng)培訓(xùn)總?cè)藬?shù)越多的農(nóng)戶越傾向環(huán)境友好型農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù);肖焰恒[13]提出與環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新概念相似的可持續(xù)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新。

        盡管國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者已經(jīng)認(rèn)識(shí)到環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新能夠促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)資源持續(xù)高效利用、改善生態(tài)環(huán)境、促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,并在解決能源問(wèn)題、氣候問(wèn)題、環(huán)境問(wèn)題等方面發(fā)揮了重要的功效,然而,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新具有明顯的外部性、高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性與復(fù)雜性,如何獲取長(zhǎng)期、持續(xù)的生態(tài)與社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益才是環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的根本目標(biāo)。鑒于此,在推進(jìn)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的背景下,深入研究環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系,探討環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新保障生態(tài)效益的同時(shí)如何提升農(nóng)戶、農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)、區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,具有非常重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。

        對(duì)于技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的理論研究,早在1912年熊彼特提出創(chuàng)新增長(zhǎng)理論之后已經(jīng)基本成熟,伴隨著技術(shù)創(chuàng)新理論研究的深入,國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者逐步將技術(shù)創(chuàng)新理論引入農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域,探討農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用。Cochrand在1958年提出了“技術(shù)踏車?yán)碚摗保蜗蟮乇扔髁松虡I(yè)性農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)者在農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步背景下的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和收益分配;萬(wàn)寶瑞[14]進(jìn)一步指出推進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,對(duì)保障國(guó)家糧食安全、食品生態(tài)安全、農(nóng)民增收和農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展、促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有著至關(guān)重要的意義。在實(shí)證分析方面,趙樹寬等[15]采用VAR模型,引入技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)為中間變量,實(shí)證結(jié)果表明技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有長(zhǎng)期正向的促進(jìn)作用,是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的源動(dòng)力,而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的影響不明顯;王家庭[16]運(yùn)用空間計(jì)量方法和經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量方法實(shí)證研究了技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的空間溢出對(duì)我國(guó)區(qū)域工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)效應(yīng);劉紅峰[17]建立兩型(資源節(jié)約與環(huán)境友好)農(nóng)業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并運(yùn)用主成份法分析兩型農(nóng)業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新評(píng)價(jià)的因子及其綜合水平,結(jié)論表明依靠科技創(chuàng)新促進(jìn)資源節(jié)約與環(huán)境友好、促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展,是惟一正確的戰(zhàn)略選擇。

        綜上所述,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期、持續(xù)、漸進(jìn)、連貫的過(guò)程,雖然國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者已經(jīng)基本認(rèn)可環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)及促進(jìn)作用,由于視角和方法主要是對(duì)二者局部問(wèn)題進(jìn)行探討,未能充分展示二者的相互關(guān)系,一定程度上限制了其學(xué)術(shù)和政策價(jià)值。本文將從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)角度充分論證二者的關(guān)系,以為環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新政策的進(jìn)一步調(diào)整與改革提供參考。

        2概念界定與理論模型2.1環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新比較

        農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新體系是以現(xiàn)有工業(yè)技術(shù)為基礎(chǔ),其本質(zhì)是農(nóng)業(yè)科研成果研制、開(kāi)發(fā)并在農(nóng)業(yè)中應(yīng)用的全過(guò)程,即農(nóng)業(yè)科技成果轉(zhuǎn)化為現(xiàn)實(shí)生產(chǎn)力的全過(guò)程。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)保障國(guó)家糧食安全、農(nóng)民增收和農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展有著至關(guān)重要的意義。然而,多年來(lái)我國(guó)傳統(tǒng)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新追求單一的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,將農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)過(guò)程中造成的資源耗竭、環(huán)境損失等問(wèn)題作為一個(gè)被忽略的因素,雖然促進(jìn)了農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),但也促使傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新沿著不斷加重環(huán)境惡化和資源枯竭的路徑發(fā)展。

        環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是在遵循傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的效率、效益和適用性創(chuàng)新原則基礎(chǔ)上,以環(huán)境、生態(tài)、資源的可持續(xù)利用和發(fā)展為目標(biāo),強(qiáng)調(diào)環(huán)境和資源變量在技術(shù)創(chuàng)新中的重要性,通過(guò)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)研發(fā)、推廣、轉(zhuǎn)化、應(yīng)用來(lái)配置創(chuàng)新資源以實(shí)現(xiàn)價(jià)值增值和獲取農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益、社會(huì)效益及生態(tài)效益的過(guò)程。

        實(shí)質(zhì)上,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的構(gòu)成主體、創(chuàng)新過(guò)程、服務(wù)體系等方面是相同的,最重要的區(qū)別體現(xiàn)在以下兩個(gè)方面。

        2.1.1兩者創(chuàng)新的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素不同

        農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)主體在追求生產(chǎn)效率和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的前提下,采用創(chuàng)新的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)技術(shù)(化肥、農(nóng)藥、機(jī)械等),并通過(guò)生產(chǎn)資料的規(guī)模投入來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)規(guī)模化、機(jī)械化和集約化。因此,一般創(chuàng)新理論認(rèn)為,市場(chǎng)需求的拉動(dòng)力量是農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。然而,在這種因素的驅(qū)動(dòng)下,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)是以對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境和環(huán)境資源的掠奪式開(kāi)發(fā)和利用為主要方式,強(qiáng)調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)利益而忽略農(nóng)業(yè)資源與生態(tài)環(huán)境的自然持續(xù)力。

        新技術(shù)的市場(chǎng)需求顯然也是環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的出發(fā)點(diǎn)之一,但由于環(huán)境問(wèn)題存在負(fù)外部性特征,與其他創(chuàng)新活動(dòng)相比,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的市場(chǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)性相對(duì)較弱,這使得環(huán)境規(guī)制也成為了環(huán)境創(chuàng)新最主要的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素之一[18]?;诃h(huán)境保護(hù)的農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、法律環(huán)境、金融支持和稅收政策等方面的環(huán)境規(guī)制,通過(guò)外界刺激迫使農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)主體意識(shí)到環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是經(jīng)濟(jì)利好的,從而推動(dòng)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的產(chǎn)生和采納。與傳統(tǒng)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新相比,由于正的溢出效應(yīng)和負(fù)的環(huán)境效應(yīng)的內(nèi)部化,環(huán)境規(guī)制會(huì)引致農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)主體的創(chuàng)新活動(dòng),并導(dǎo)致“雙贏”的結(jié)果,在減少環(huán)境污染的同時(shí)給各參與主體(農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)合作組織、農(nóng)戶等)帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)利益。因此,環(huán)境規(guī)制是環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的另一個(gè)主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。

        2.1.2兩者知識(shí)的供給源不同

        化學(xué)、電氣、機(jī)械等領(lǐng)域的現(xiàn)代工業(yè)技術(shù)是傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的知識(shí)供給源,農(nóng)業(yè)新技術(shù)是以這些現(xiàn)代工業(yè)技術(shù)為基礎(chǔ)展開(kāi)研發(fā)設(shè)計(jì)。這些農(nóng)業(yè)新技術(shù)具有易于引進(jìn)和模仿創(chuàng)新的技術(shù)特性,從而迅速地實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),但卻帶來(lái)了農(nóng)業(yè)資源耗竭、生態(tài)環(huán)境的污染破壞和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的弱質(zhì)性。

        與傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新不同,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新把全新的系統(tǒng)工程方法、生態(tài)學(xué)、可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論、環(huán)境保護(hù)學(xué)等理論納入到農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新過(guò)程中,對(duì)傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新進(jìn)一步的“突破”、“融合”。一方面,在傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新將新理念、新知識(shí)引入到傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新中,注重農(nóng)業(yè)資源的利用,提高農(nóng)業(yè)資源的利用率,致力于盡可能減少?gòu)U棄物排放和對(duì)環(huán)境的污染,使得農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)方式向“農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境友好資源投入-環(huán)境友好農(nóng)產(chǎn)品-農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)環(huán)境改善”的循環(huán)式生產(chǎn)過(guò)程轉(zhuǎn)換,這是對(duì)傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的“突破”;而另一方面,推進(jìn)和實(shí)施環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新需要經(jīng)濟(jì)效益、社會(huì)效益、生態(tài)效益在一個(gè)合理的維度內(nèi),既能保證糧食安全、提高農(nóng)民收入,又能保障農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展,因此,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新必須“融合”現(xiàn)有的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)成果,克服和改善環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新負(fù)外部性的同時(shí)利用現(xiàn)有的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì),這使得環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的實(shí)現(xiàn)環(huán)節(jié)和難度進(jìn)一步增加。

        2.2環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的理論模型

        傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的出發(fā)點(diǎn)和根本動(dòng)力即是市場(chǎng)需求拉動(dòng)和技術(shù)推動(dòng),而環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新加入環(huán)境規(guī)制的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,在對(duì)傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新“突破”與“融合”的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)提高農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)合作組織、農(nóng)戶等的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率,提升農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)要素的邊際效率,改善與優(yōu)化農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量、產(chǎn)量,從而帶動(dòng)農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)化升級(jí)和諸如旅游農(nóng)業(yè)、休閑農(nóng)業(yè)、生物科技等新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的形成,最終直接或間接地促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。相反,農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)會(huì)引起新的市場(chǎng)需求(如居民農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)品消費(fèi)形式、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,農(nóng)戶生產(chǎn)技術(shù)的新需求等),在新需求引導(dǎo)下可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)水平的提高,并由此展開(kāi)新一輪的循環(huán)過(guò)程。圖1環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的理論模型

        Fig.1Theoretical model for relationship between environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology

        innovation and agricultural economic growth

        因此,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在著相互促進(jìn)和相互制約的關(guān)系。其中,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有正向促進(jìn)作用,反過(guò)來(lái),農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)為環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新水平新一輪的提高提供經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)和物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),其理論模型如圖1所示。

        3變量、數(shù)據(jù)與方法3.1變量選擇與數(shù)據(jù)收集

        一般來(lái)講,專利申請(qǐng)量和專利授權(quán)量等是最常見(jiàn)的衡量技術(shù)創(chuàng)新水平的指標(biāo),然而,針對(duì)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的特殊性以及數(shù)據(jù)的可獲性,本文以1990-2011年的年度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本期,選取“農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)專利申請(qǐng)量”(Patent Application ofFarming,F(xiàn)orestry, Animal Husbandry,and Fishery,簡(jiǎn)寫為PA)和“環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣程度”(EnvironmentallyFriendly Agriculture Technology Extension,簡(jiǎn)寫為TE)來(lái)衡量環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新水平和推廣程度;選取“全國(guó)農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)總產(chǎn)值”(Gross Agricultural Product, 簡(jiǎn)寫為GAP)作為農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的衡量指標(biāo)。其中,“環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推廣程度”是一個(gè)過(guò)渡指標(biāo),是為了進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證和說(shuō)明環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。

        在這三項(xiàng)指標(biāo)中,“農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)專利申請(qǐng)量”和“全國(guó)農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)總產(chǎn)值”的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)直接來(lái)源于《中國(guó)科技統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》、《中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》等年鑒,但“環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣程度”是一個(gè)綜合指標(biāo),由多項(xiàng)環(huán)境友好技術(shù)綜合決定的,因此該項(xiàng)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)較難獲取。借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者經(jīng)驗(yàn),本文主要選擇作物秸稈綜合利用技術(shù)(以秸稈粉碎還田機(jī)擁有量為例)、農(nóng)用清潔再生能源技術(shù)(以沼氣技術(shù)為例)、節(jié)能高效農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械技術(shù)(以節(jié)水灌溉類機(jī)械為例)和科學(xué)施肥技術(shù)(以免耕技術(shù)覆蓋面積為例)等四項(xiàng)技術(shù)作為環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)創(chuàng)新技術(shù)的代表,通過(guò)專家咨詢法和主成分分析方法的組合賦權(quán)方法算來(lái)確定四項(xiàng)技術(shù)的權(quán)重的大小,并計(jì)算得出1990-2011年“環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推廣度”的綜合值,以代表“環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣程度”的指標(biāo),其中四項(xiàng)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于《新中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)60年統(tǒng)計(jì)資料》、《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)年鑒》等。

        此外,由于本文研究中所采用的數(shù)據(jù)為時(shí)間序列,一般會(huì)有異方差的存在,所以對(duì)變量進(jìn)行對(duì)數(shù)變換,使得數(shù)據(jù)趨勢(shì)線性化,變換后分別記作LnGAP、LnTE、LnPA,如表1所示。

        3.2研究方法

        基于以上分析,本文采用美國(guó)著名計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克里斯托弗·西姆斯(Christopher Sims)提出的VAR模型對(duì)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的長(zhǎng)期動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)

        表11990-2011年我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值、專利申請(qǐng)量及

        技術(shù)推廣程度

        Tab.1Data of gross agricultural product, patent application,

        technology extension from 1990 to 2011年份

        YearGAPTEPALnGAPLnTELn PA19907 662203.48178.944 05.315 06.705 619918 157205.29609.006 65.324 06.866 919929 085214.81 1299.114 45.369 77.029 1199310 996226.01 3429.305 35.420 47.201 9199415 751235.81 5389.664 75.463 17.338 2199520 341246.81 8459.920 45.508 77.520 2199622 354262.02 10710.014 85.568 37.653 0199723 788277.12 68510.076 95.624 57.895 4199824 542298.92 58110.108 15.700 07.855 9199924 519336.23 53410.107 25.817 78.170 2200024 916376.83 42010.123 35.931 68.137 4200126 180423.24 02710.172 86.047 88.300 8200227 391486.24 78210.218 06.186 68.472 6200329 692558.64 83510.298 66.325 48.483 6200436 239662.55 85610.497 96.496 08.675 2200539 451771.56 80210.582 86.648 38.825 0200640 811922.07 90310.616 76.826 58.975 0200748 8931 105.08 77810.797 47.007 69.080 0200858 0021 271.910 97810.968 27.148 29.303 6200960 3611 512.312 84911.008 17.321 49.461 0201069 3191 789.116 41211.146 57.489 59.705 8201181 3032 117.724 17811.305 97.658 110.093 2

        系進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究[19]。首先對(duì)原始數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)以判斷變量是否是單整的,如果變量是單整的,進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)考察變量是否存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,建立協(xié)整方程。然后在VAR模型的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分析分解分析環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的是否存在因果關(guān)系和長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系,最終探索二者動(dòng)態(tài)的影響過(guò)程。

        4實(shí)證分析4.1數(shù)據(jù)的平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn):ADF檢驗(yàn)

        為避免偽回歸現(xiàn)象的發(fā)生,應(yīng)該首先對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)間序列進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn),以判斷時(shí)間序列的平穩(wěn)性。本文采用Eviews6.0軟件,對(duì)LnGAP、LnTE、LnPA的單位根進(jìn)行ADF檢驗(yàn),以判斷各時(shí)間序列是否符合同階單整的條件,為隨后的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰檢驗(yàn)奠定基礎(chǔ)。

        通過(guò)表2的ADF檢驗(yàn)值的結(jié)果可以看出,Ln GAP、

        表2變量序列單位根檢驗(yàn)(ADF)結(jié)果

        Tab.2Unit root test(ADF)results of variable sequence變量

        VariableADF

        檢驗(yàn)值

        ADF

        test value各顯著性水平下的臨界值

        Critical value of every

        significant level1%5%10%結(jié)結(jié)果

        Resultln GAP0.667-3.886-3.052-2.667非平穩(wěn)ln TE-0.089-3.831-3.029-2.655非平穩(wěn)ln PA-0.349-4.616-3.710-3.298非平穩(wěn)D ln GAP-2.420-4.498-3.658-3.268非平穩(wěn)D ln TE1.299-2.692-1.960-1.607非平穩(wěn)D ln PA1.295-4.616-3.710-3.298非平穩(wěn)D(ln GAP,2)-4.758-2.699-1.961-1.606平穩(wěn)D(ln TE,2)-6.485-3.831-3.029-2.655平穩(wěn)D(ln PA,2)-8.159-4.571-3.690-3.286平穩(wěn)

        Ln TE、Ln PA的原始序列和其一階差分形式的ADF檢驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)量均大于顯著性水平 1%、5%、10%的臨界值,不能拒絕原假設(shè),均存在單位根,為非平穩(wěn)序列。在二階差分之后,原始序列二階差分形式的ADF檢驗(yàn)值均小于1%、5%、10%的臨界值,說(shuō)明分別在1%、5%、10%的顯著性水平下,三組時(shí)間序列都為二階單整序列,存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系,滿足進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)的前提條件。

        4.2Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)

        為進(jìn)一步分析環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣程度與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間是否存在長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系(協(xié)整關(guān)系),須進(jìn)行協(xié)整分析。采用Johansen檢驗(yàn)法對(duì)“環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣度”、“農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)專利申請(qǐng)量”與“全國(guó)農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)總產(chǎn)值”3個(gè)變量進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),以檢驗(yàn)三者之間是否存在長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系,檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果如表3所示。

        由表3可以看出,采用最大特征根跡統(tǒng)計(jì)量來(lái)評(píng)判的Johansen檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果,第3行7.586>3.841,即在95%置信水平上拒絕的原假設(shè),LnGAP、LnTE、LnPA三個(gè)變量之間最多存在兩個(gè)協(xié)整關(guān)系,可以認(rèn)為農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)專利申請(qǐng)量、環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣度與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在長(zhǎng)

        表3Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果

        Tab.3Results of Johansen cointegration test原假設(shè)

        Null hypothesis特征根

        Eigen value跡統(tǒng)計(jì)量值

        Trace statistic5%的顯著

        水平

        5%significant

        levelP值

        P value0個(gè)協(xié)整向量*0.980 82699.385 14629.797 0730.000 01個(gè)協(xié)整向量*0.682 00328.209 30415.494 7130.000 32個(gè)協(xié)整向量*0.343 9197.586 4653.841 4660.005 0注:“*”表示在5%的顯著水平下拒絕原假設(shè),即拒絕了不存在協(xié)整關(guān)系的假設(shè)。

        期的動(dòng)態(tài)均衡關(guān)系。

        經(jīng)過(guò)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化后的協(xié)整向量為(1.000,-0.375,-0.542),農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)專利申請(qǐng)量、環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣度與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的協(xié)整方程為:

        LnGAP=0.375LnPA+0.542LnTE(1)

        (0.071)(0.053)

        方程(1)表明,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新水平、農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣程度與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是同向變化的。在長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系上,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新水平(PA)每增加1%,引起農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)(GAP)增加0.375%,而環(huán)境友好技術(shù)推廣程度(TE)每增加1%,則引起農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)(GAP)增加0.542%。顯然,與環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新水平相比,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推廣程度對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用效果顯著。

        4.3建立VAR模型

        VAR模型對(duì)時(shí)間序列變量不作任何先驗(yàn)性假設(shè),實(shí)質(zhì)上是考察多個(gè)變量之間的動(dòng)態(tài)互動(dòng)關(guān)系,把系統(tǒng)中每一個(gè)內(nèi)生變量作為所有變量滯后項(xiàng)的函數(shù)來(lái)構(gòu)造回歸模型。VAR模型的建立不但需要各個(gè)變量滿足平穩(wěn)性條件,而且需要確定反映變量彼此之間相互影響的最大可能滯后階數(shù),從而保證模型估計(jì)結(jié)果顯著。LnGAP 、LnTE、LnPA為二階單整時(shí)間序列,滿足建立 VAR 模型的平穩(wěn)性條件。VAR模型中確定滯后階數(shù)的方法主要有LR檢驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)量法、最終預(yù)測(cè)誤差法(FPE)和信息準(zhǔn)則法等方法,本文采表4VAR 模型滯后階數(shù)選擇

        Tab.4Lag structure test of VAR modelLagLogLLRFPEAICSCHQ016.024 5NA4.72×10-5-1.447 16-1.298 766-1.426 6991101.677 5133.238 19.66×10-9-9.964 17-9.370 586-9.882 3212110.878 311.245 471.05×10-8-9.986 48-8.947 716-9.843 2513123.541 511.256 129.40×10-9-10.393 50-8.909 545-10.188 884158.085 719.191 25*1.13×10-9*-13.231 75*-11.302 61*-12.965 75*用信息準(zhǔn)則法來(lái)確定VAR模型的最佳滯后期,結(jié)果如表4所示。

        由表4可以看出,在滯后階數(shù)為4的時(shí)候,AIC 和 SC值最小。由此可以建立以“環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣程度”、“農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)專利申請(qǐng)量”、“全國(guó)農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)總產(chǎn)值”為因變量,以這些變量的滯后值為自變量,滯后階數(shù)為4的無(wú)約束VAR 模型,即VAR(4)模型。同時(shí),通過(guò)對(duì)VAR(4)模型的平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示,VAR(4)模型所有根模的倒數(shù)都小于1(即都在單位圓曲線內(nèi)),說(shuō)明本文基于VAR模型的結(jié)論是可靠的。

        4.4Ganger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)

        上述分析已經(jīng)確定環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣程度與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)三個(gè)變量之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,因此可以進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行Ganger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),以探索3個(gè)變量之間是否存在因果關(guān)系,以及因果關(guān)系的方向。檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果如表5所示。

        由表5可知:①滯后1期,LnTE和LnGAP互為格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,LnTE和LnPA互為格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,而LnPA和LnGAP不存在格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。這表明在短期內(nèi),環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的推廣程度能促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推廣程度的來(lái)源,即創(chuàng)新是推廣的前提,而由于從技術(shù)創(chuàng)新到推廣應(yīng)用有一定的滯后性,技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用在短期內(nèi)是非常緩慢的。②滯后2期與3期,LnPA 和LnTE是LnGAP的格蘭杰原因,且因果關(guān)系是單向的,這表明環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新諸如新技術(shù)的研發(fā)等對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用開(kāi)始逐步顯現(xiàn),環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推廣與應(yīng)用持續(xù)促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),而農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在短期內(nèi)不能反哺技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與新技術(shù)的推廣。③滯后4期,LnPA和LnGAP互為格蘭杰因果關(guān)系、LnTE和LnGAP互為格蘭杰因果關(guān)系、LnPA和LnTE互為格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。這表明,在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi),環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的推廣程度是農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的源泉,農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)新一輪的環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與推廣,而環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是技術(shù)推廣的基礎(chǔ)、技術(shù)推廣是環(huán)境友好技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的進(jìn)一步實(shí)現(xiàn)。

        4.5脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)

        Johansen 協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)與 Granger 因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)表明,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、技術(shù)推廣度和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,并且具有因果關(guān)系?;谝陨系腣AR模型,可以用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分解等工具來(lái)詳盡地描述變量間的動(dòng)態(tài)特征。脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析方法用來(lái)描述一個(gè)內(nèi)生變量對(duì)由誤差項(xiàng)所帶來(lái)沖擊的反應(yīng),即在隨機(jī)誤差項(xiàng)上施加一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)大小的沖擊后,對(duì)內(nèi)生變量的當(dāng)期值和未來(lái)值所產(chǎn)生的影響程度。運(yùn)用Eviews 6.0軟件生成基于

        表5格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果

        Tab.5Results of granger causality tests原假設(shè)

        Null hypothesis滯后期

        Lag1234LnPA不是LnGAP

        的格蘭杰原因F統(tǒng)計(jì)量3.564 5.4034.01519.547P值0.0750.0170.0340.002LnGAP不是LnPA

        的格蘭杰原因F統(tǒng)計(jì)量4.3942.3032.0872.304P值0.0500.1340.1550.030LnTE不是LnGAP

        的格蘭杰原因F統(tǒng)計(jì)量1.8675.9893.98427.253P值0.0180.0120.0355.E05LnGAP不是LnTE

        的格蘭杰原因F統(tǒng)計(jì)量0.1511.1840.8220.650P值0.0010.3320.5060.061LnTE不是LnPA

        的格蘭杰原因F統(tǒng)計(jì)量14.2022.0771.8211.666P值0.0010.1590.1970.041LnPA 不是LnTE

        的格蘭杰原因F統(tǒng)計(jì)量4.9055.9366.1553.203P值0.0390.0120.0080.067VAR模型的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)圖,通過(guò)分析可以得到以下結(jié)果:

        (1)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)在最初的1期、2期都幾乎沒(méi)有沖擊作用,第3期后開(kāi)始對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起到明顯的促進(jìn)作用,并且逐步增大,說(shuō)明環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)化成生產(chǎn)力持續(xù)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展;而農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)是正向緩慢促進(jìn)的,第7期以后趨于緩慢平穩(wěn)的促進(jìn)作用,表明農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是緩慢并長(zhǎng)期有效的。

        (2)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推廣程度與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣度對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用是前小后大,由于環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)的特殊性且受自然環(huán)境的影響,技術(shù)剛剛開(kāi)始被農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)、農(nóng)戶所采納時(shí)是暫時(shí)沒(méi)有經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的,在第5期以后,作用才慢慢顯現(xiàn)出來(lái),逐步地成為農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的推動(dòng)力;而農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)從第1期對(duì)技術(shù)推廣度產(chǎn)生較強(qiáng)的影響,第3期開(kāi)始下降,第8期以后則趨于穩(wěn)定,表明通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)能夠提升農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)主體采用新技術(shù)的積極性。

        (3)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與技術(shù)推廣程度的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。技術(shù)推廣程度受到環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新正向沖擊之后,從第1期就逐步開(kāi)始上升,在第3期后速度加快,第12期趨于平穩(wěn),這表明環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)技術(shù)推廣程度的有長(zhǎng)期的正向影響,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是一切技術(shù)推廣的基礎(chǔ);而環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新受到技術(shù)推廣程度的正向沖擊后,除了第1期、第2期上升效果顯著,第3期到第7期有低幅度的波動(dòng),以后一直保持低速平穩(wěn)的促進(jìn)作用,這表明技術(shù)推廣度長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)對(duì)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的促進(jìn)作用不顯著。

        4.6方差分解

        方差分解方法是 Smis 在1980 年提出的將系統(tǒng)的預(yù)測(cè)均方誤差(Mean Square Error,MSE)按照其成因分解為自身沖擊及其他變量沖擊所構(gòu)成的貢獻(xiàn)率,從而將變量間的影響關(guān)系具體量化,評(píng)價(jià)不同結(jié)構(gòu)沖擊所造成的影響。運(yùn)用Eviews6.0軟件進(jìn)行方差分解, LnGAP、LnPA、LnTE的方差分解結(jié)果如表6所示。

        由表6可知:

        (1)在LnGAP的方差分解中,能夠找出環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與技術(shù)推廣度對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。在滯后1期,二者對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的沖擊均為零,但隨著預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)期的推進(jìn),二者對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的沖擊持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)且速度較慢,充分體現(xiàn)了現(xiàn)階段在我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中,從農(nóng)戶、農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)到農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)組織的生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)都以重視經(jīng)濟(jì)效益為前提,對(duì)環(huán)境友好型農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的研發(fā)及其推廣較為忽視,致使二者對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的促進(jìn)作用滯后時(shí)間較長(zhǎng)。但隨著政策引導(dǎo)、觀念轉(zhuǎn)變、技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)換和經(jīng)濟(jì)支持,預(yù)測(cè)期時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),二者對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用越大。

        (2)在LnPA的方差分解中,LnGAP對(duì)LnPA的沖擊從第2期開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng),在第14期達(dá)到最大,為27.08 %,此后逐步減小,農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的影響是緩慢且長(zhǎng)期有效的,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)為技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提供資金支持,為持續(xù)的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提供動(dòng)力。LnTE對(duì)LnPA的沖擊效果并不明顯,僅在第11期達(dá)到最大,此后逐步減小,這表明在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi),環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣度對(duì)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的影響較小,即二者的關(guān)系是單向的。

        (3)在LnTE的方差分解中,農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新都對(duì)技術(shù)推廣度在第1期產(chǎn)生沖擊。農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)其的沖擊在第5期達(dá)到最大,為71.25%,隨后逐漸下降,但沖擊都在40%以上。農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣度具有長(zhǎng)期顯著的正向影響。而環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)技術(shù)推廣度也在第1期就產(chǎn)生了影響,最后一期達(dá)到最大值,為47.12%。這表明長(zhǎng)期內(nèi),環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是技術(shù)推廣度的前提,這與之前的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果一致。

        5結(jié)論及啟示

        本文運(yùn)用基于 VAR模型的動(dòng)態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量分析方法,對(duì)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的長(zhǎng)期動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究??梢园l(fā)現(xiàn):

        (1)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推廣度與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在長(zhǎng)期的動(dòng)態(tài)均衡關(guān)系,在長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系上,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新(PA)每增加1%,引起農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)(GAP)增加0.375%,而環(huán)境友好技術(shù)推廣程度(TE)每增加1%,則引起農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)(GAP)增加0.542%。

        (2)短期內(nèi),技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推廣度在滯后1期即能促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,且環(huán)境友好技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是推廣的前提;在滯后2期與3期,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促表6LnGAP,LnPA,LnTE的方差分解結(jié)果

        Tab.6Results of variance decomposition of LnGAP, LnPA, LnTE時(shí)期

        PeriodLn GAPLnPALnTES.E.Ln GAPLnPALnTES.E.Ln GAPLnPALnTES.E.Ln GAPLnPALnTE10.06100.000.000.000.070.0499.950.000.0117.182.5780.2420.1099.600.140.250.087.7888.833.380.0254.024.2441.7230.1197.452.010.530.099.2287.533.240.0362.132.1935.6740.1297.312.030.640.1013.3983.453.150.0468.682.5228.7850.1296.482.750.760.1015.5880.743.670.0573.255.3321.4160.1296.102.970.910.1116.2580.043.700.0670.7110.9818.2970.1295.943.070.980.1116.3879.723.890.0767.6317.0115.3480.1295.193.691.100.1116.0279.264.700.0762.7623.7813.4590.1294.784.041.170.1116.6377.276.090.0857.8529.8712.27100.1293.854.921.220.1119.1074.216.680.0853.7634.8011.43110.1292.815.921.260.1221.1971.187.620.0850.5938.6610.74120.1291.816.911.260.1224.7868.097.120.0848.2241.4710.30130.1390.488.241.270.1326.4766.746.770.0846.1743.6910.13140.1389.369.351.280.1327.0866.476.440.0944.3445.4010.24150.1388.1110.571.310.1327.0366.826.130.0941.9947.1210.88

        進(jìn)作用才開(kāi)始逐步顯現(xiàn);在滯后4期,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的推廣程度是農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的源泉。

        (3)長(zhǎng)期內(nèi),環(huán)境友好技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新推廣程度對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推進(jìn)作用是緩慢且長(zhǎng)期有效的,農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)為技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提供資金支持,為持續(xù)的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提供動(dòng)力,對(duì)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的推廣起到先強(qiáng)后弱的促進(jìn)作用;但環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)推廣度對(duì)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的影響較小,二者的關(guān)系是單向的。

        根據(jù)研究結(jié)論,并結(jié)合我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,給出以下政策啟示:

        (1)促進(jìn)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新成果轉(zhuǎn)化。既然環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有長(zhǎng)期正向的促進(jìn)作用,那么把環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新成果轉(zhuǎn)化成為現(xiàn)實(shí)的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)力則是促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要?jiǎng)恿ΑR虼耍紫葢?yīng)該解決環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新中技術(shù)供給者與技術(shù)需求者的信息不對(duì)稱和能力不對(duì)稱問(wèn)題,然后進(jìn)一步通過(guò)改善政府、環(huán)境治理部門、技術(shù)研發(fā)部門等組織關(guān)系和構(gòu)建配套的合作協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制為環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新成果的轉(zhuǎn)化創(chuàng)造良好的氛圍,同時(shí)引入農(nóng)業(yè)科技產(chǎn)業(yè)化組織方式,使主體之間通過(guò)合同契約關(guān)系形成利益均沾、共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的利益共同體,加快農(nóng)業(yè)科技成果的推廣與應(yīng)用。

        (2)完善環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新政策機(jī)制。顯然,如果缺乏有效地環(huán)境政策,農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)、農(nóng)戶等很少有激勵(lì)去使用環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)或者去研發(fā)未來(lái)更好使用的技術(shù)[20]。因此,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新一方面要克服環(huán)境和生態(tài)變量外部性引起的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境治理和農(nóng)業(yè)資源利用等問(wèn)題,另一方面要突破舊的體制障礙,適應(yīng)新的知識(shí)創(chuàng)新需求,這些都在一定程度上要求農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新政策在政策手段上不斷完善。通過(guò)各種行政手段、經(jīng)濟(jì)手段、市場(chǎng)激勵(lì)等配套實(shí)施,健全農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的保障機(jī)制、激勵(lì)機(jī)制、約束機(jī)制、監(jiān)督反饋機(jī)制,進(jìn)而促進(jìn)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部各主體要素之間、功能要素之間互動(dòng)、合作和促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)方式盡快向環(huán)境友好方向轉(zhuǎn)化。

        (3)改革環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的資金投入制度。雖然農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)能夠?yàn)榄h(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提供資金支持,然而,在我國(guó)目前的財(cái)政體制下,國(guó)家對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)科技投入近年在比重上增長(zhǎng)緩慢甚至下降。由于資源、生態(tài)、環(huán)境收益的外部性問(wèn)題,要實(shí)現(xiàn)激勵(lì)農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)合作組織和農(nóng)業(yè)的對(duì)環(huán)境友好技術(shù)采納行為,前期必須投入大量的資金。因此,與傳統(tǒng)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新資金投入體制相比,環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新需要更大幅度的資金投入和更有效的投入方式,即改革原有的環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)資金投入方式,開(kāi)拓投入渠道,加大投入力度,逐步建立起國(guó)家、集體、企業(yè)、個(gè)體和單位自籌相結(jié)合的多元投資結(jié)構(gòu),以更好地推動(dòng)環(huán)境友好農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新快速發(fā)展。

        (編輯:尹建中)

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        [18]戴鴻軼,柳卸林.對(duì)環(huán)境創(chuàng)新的一些評(píng)論[J].科學(xué)學(xué)研究,2009,27(11):1602-1610.[Dai Hongyi, Liu xielin. Some Comments on Research of Environmental Innovation [J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2009,27(11): 1602-1610.]

        [19]易丹輝.數(shù)據(jù)分析與Eviews應(yīng)用[M].北京:中國(guó)人民大學(xué)出版社,2012:207-226.[Yi Danhui. Data Analysis and Eviews Applications[M]. Beijing: China Renmin University Press,2012:207-226.]

        [20]張倩,曲世友.環(huán)境規(guī)制下政府與企業(yè)環(huán)境行為的動(dòng)態(tài)博弈與最優(yōu)策略研究[J].預(yù)測(cè),2013,32(4):35-40.[Zhang Qian, Qu Shiyou. Research on Dynamic Game between Government and Corporation Evironment Behavior and Optimal Strategies Based on Enviromental Regulation[J]. Forcasting,2013,32(4):35-40.]

        Research of Relationship Between Environmentallyfriendly Agricultural Technology

        Innovation and Agricultural Economic Growth

        YAO Yanting1,2CHEN Wanming1LI Xiaoning2

        (1. College of economics and management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing Jiangsu 210016, China;

        2. College of economics and management, Northwest University of Politics & Law, Xian Shaanxi 710063, China)

        AbstractPromoting environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation is an important way to transform agricultural growth pattern, achieve agricultural sustainable development, and accelerate agricultural economic growth. This paper at first studied the difference between environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation and traditional agricultural technology innovation from the perspective of theory, found that they have the same essence but have such differences as innovation driving factor and knowledge supply source, and analyzed the relationship between environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation and agricultural economic growth. Secondly, the writer introduced environmentallyfriendly agriculture technology extension as interim index, and researched on their logterm dynamic relationship by means of VAR model from an empirical view. It was found that 1% growth of environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation will cause agricultural economic growth increasing 0.375% as a whole, and 1% growth of environmentallyfriendly agriculture technology extension will resultin agricultural economic growth increasing 0.542%; In the short term, the promoting effect of environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation for agricultural economic growth appears at the second and the third lag phases, while in the long term, the promoting effect takes much longer, and agricultural economic growth is the driving force for environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation, and the promoting effect for technical innovation decreases progressively. Finally, it is recommended to promote achievement transformation, improve innovation policy mechanism, and reform funding institutions in order to making environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation promote agricultural economic sustainable growth more effectively.

        Key wordsenvironmentallyfriendly; agricultural technology innovation; agricultural economic growth; VAR model

        [16]王家庭.技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、空間溢出與區(qū)域工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的實(shí)證研究[J].中國(guó)科技論壇,2012,1(1):55-61.[Wang Jiating. Empirical Study on Technological Innovation, Space Overflow and Economic Growth of Regional Industry[J]. Forum on Science and Technology in China,2012,1(1):55-61.]

        [17]劉紅峰.兩型農(nóng)業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新研究[D].長(zhǎng)沙:湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué),2012:21-34.[Liu Hongfeng. Two Types (Resourcesaving and Environmentfriendly) of Agricultural Science and Technological Innovation Research[D].Changsha: Hunan Agricultural University, 2012:21-34.]

        [18]戴鴻軼,柳卸林.對(duì)環(huán)境創(chuàng)新的一些評(píng)論[J].科學(xué)學(xué)研究,2009,27(11):1602-1610.[Dai Hongyi, Liu xielin. Some Comments on Research of Environmental Innovation [J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2009,27(11): 1602-1610.]

        [19]易丹輝.數(shù)據(jù)分析與Eviews應(yīng)用[M].北京:中國(guó)人民大學(xué)出版社,2012:207-226.[Yi Danhui. Data Analysis and Eviews Applications[M]. Beijing: China Renmin University Press,2012:207-226.]

        [20]張倩,曲世友.環(huán)境規(guī)制下政府與企業(yè)環(huán)境行為的動(dòng)態(tài)博弈與最優(yōu)策略研究[J].預(yù)測(cè),2013,32(4):35-40.[Zhang Qian, Qu Shiyou. Research on Dynamic Game between Government and Corporation Evironment Behavior and Optimal Strategies Based on Enviromental Regulation[J]. Forcasting,2013,32(4):35-40.]

        Research of Relationship Between Environmentallyfriendly Agricultural Technology

        Innovation and Agricultural Economic Growth

        YAO Yanting1,2CHEN Wanming1LI Xiaoning2

        (1. College of economics and management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing Jiangsu 210016, China;

        2. College of economics and management, Northwest University of Politics & Law, Xian Shaanxi 710063, China)

        AbstractPromoting environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation is an important way to transform agricultural growth pattern, achieve agricultural sustainable development, and accelerate agricultural economic growth. This paper at first studied the difference between environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation and traditional agricultural technology innovation from the perspective of theory, found that they have the same essence but have such differences as innovation driving factor and knowledge supply source, and analyzed the relationship between environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation and agricultural economic growth. Secondly, the writer introduced environmentallyfriendly agriculture technology extension as interim index, and researched on their logterm dynamic relationship by means of VAR model from an empirical view. It was found that 1% growth of environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation will cause agricultural economic growth increasing 0.375% as a whole, and 1% growth of environmentallyfriendly agriculture technology extension will resultin agricultural economic growth increasing 0.542%; In the short term, the promoting effect of environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation for agricultural economic growth appears at the second and the third lag phases, while in the long term, the promoting effect takes much longer, and agricultural economic growth is the driving force for environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation, and the promoting effect for technical innovation decreases progressively. Finally, it is recommended to promote achievement transformation, improve innovation policy mechanism, and reform funding institutions in order to making environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation promote agricultural economic sustainable growth more effectively.

        Key wordsenvironmentallyfriendly; agricultural technology innovation; agricultural economic growth; VAR model

        [16]王家庭.技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、空間溢出與區(qū)域工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的實(shí)證研究[J].中國(guó)科技論壇,2012,1(1):55-61.[Wang Jiating. Empirical Study on Technological Innovation, Space Overflow and Economic Growth of Regional Industry[J]. Forum on Science and Technology in China,2012,1(1):55-61.]

        [17]劉紅峰.兩型農(nóng)業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新研究[D].長(zhǎng)沙:湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué),2012:21-34.[Liu Hongfeng. Two Types (Resourcesaving and Environmentfriendly) of Agricultural Science and Technological Innovation Research[D].Changsha: Hunan Agricultural University, 2012:21-34.]

        [18]戴鴻軼,柳卸林.對(duì)環(huán)境創(chuàng)新的一些評(píng)論[J].科學(xué)學(xué)研究,2009,27(11):1602-1610.[Dai Hongyi, Liu xielin. Some Comments on Research of Environmental Innovation [J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2009,27(11): 1602-1610.]

        [19]易丹輝.數(shù)據(jù)分析與Eviews應(yīng)用[M].北京:中國(guó)人民大學(xué)出版社,2012:207-226.[Yi Danhui. Data Analysis and Eviews Applications[M]. Beijing: China Renmin University Press,2012:207-226.]

        [20]張倩,曲世友.環(huán)境規(guī)制下政府與企業(yè)環(huán)境行為的動(dòng)態(tài)博弈與最優(yōu)策略研究[J].預(yù)測(cè),2013,32(4):35-40.[Zhang Qian, Qu Shiyou. Research on Dynamic Game between Government and Corporation Evironment Behavior and Optimal Strategies Based on Enviromental Regulation[J]. Forcasting,2013,32(4):35-40.]

        Research of Relationship Between Environmentallyfriendly Agricultural Technology

        Innovation and Agricultural Economic Growth

        YAO Yanting1,2CHEN Wanming1LI Xiaoning2

        (1. College of economics and management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing Jiangsu 210016, China;

        2. College of economics and management, Northwest University of Politics & Law, Xian Shaanxi 710063, China)

        AbstractPromoting environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation is an important way to transform agricultural growth pattern, achieve agricultural sustainable development, and accelerate agricultural economic growth. This paper at first studied the difference between environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation and traditional agricultural technology innovation from the perspective of theory, found that they have the same essence but have such differences as innovation driving factor and knowledge supply source, and analyzed the relationship between environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation and agricultural economic growth. Secondly, the writer introduced environmentallyfriendly agriculture technology extension as interim index, and researched on their logterm dynamic relationship by means of VAR model from an empirical view. It was found that 1% growth of environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation will cause agricultural economic growth increasing 0.375% as a whole, and 1% growth of environmentallyfriendly agriculture technology extension will resultin agricultural economic growth increasing 0.542%; In the short term, the promoting effect of environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation for agricultural economic growth appears at the second and the third lag phases, while in the long term, the promoting effect takes much longer, and agricultural economic growth is the driving force for environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation, and the promoting effect for technical innovation decreases progressively. Finally, it is recommended to promote achievement transformation, improve innovation policy mechanism, and reform funding institutions in order to making environmentallyfriendly agricultural technology innovation promote agricultural economic sustainable growth more effectively.

        Key wordsenvironmentallyfriendly; agricultural technology innovation; agricultural economic growth; VAR model

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