去物質(zhì)形態(tài)化與可持續(xù)發(fā)展

經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境是同一個(gè)硬幣的兩面，因?yàn)檎峭ㄟ^經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，我們對(duì)環(huán)境施加影響，而環(huán)境既是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的基本資源又是發(fā)展的結(jié)果。事實(shí)上，那些把經(jīng)濟(jì)置于首位的國(guó)家越來越清楚地意識(shí)到經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境之間的關(guān)系和經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)環(huán)境的依賴性。

盡管中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展取得了巨大成就，中國(guó)仍然是世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體中最缺乏效率的一個(gè)，認(rèn)識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)對(duì)中國(guó)非常有益。這當(dāng)然有歷史和結(jié)構(gòu)方面的原因，但現(xiàn)實(shí)就是中國(guó)比日本及幾個(gè)主要的歐洲國(guó)家等都消耗了更多的能源、原材料，單位GDP產(chǎn)生更多的污染，當(dāng)然，這使中國(guó)有更多的機(jī)會(huì)去消除這一“效率鴻溝”，并為全球的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供了“雙贏”的方式。

中國(guó)已經(jīng)展示了其在可再生能源開發(fā)方面所取得的進(jìn)步——太陽能、風(fēng)能和生物質(zhì)能——同時(shí)提高化石燃料，特別是煤的使用效率，煤仍然是中國(guó)消耗最多的能源?！妒澜缒茉凑雇?007》指出，2006年至2030年，中國(guó)將在能源供應(yīng)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面累計(jì)投資3.7萬億，其中3/4將投給電力行業(yè)。到2030年，中國(guó)的汽車擁有率也將上升到每1000人擁有140輛。但通過效率改善、能源轉(zhuǎn)變和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，中國(guó)仍然有無限的可能在2030年將其一次能源使用量降低15%，相似的縮減也可以在其他產(chǎn)業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)。中國(guó)在幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)，尤其是汽車、能源的發(fā)展上仍處于初級(jí)階段，這一現(xiàn)實(shí)使中國(guó)能夠比其他更加傳統(tǒng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者更快、更有效地實(shí)現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)型。但這一轉(zhuǎn)變所需的政策、措施都必須盡快執(zhí)行，并堅(jiān)持到底。

知識(shí)無疑是未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、發(fā)展和管理現(xiàn)代文明的主要源泉。技術(shù)帶來了一系列新產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)、設(shè)計(jì)、管理和信息系統(tǒng)，它是在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中擁有附加值和比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的主要來源。它為實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供了這樣的途徑：即生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)的非原料密集型、非能源密集型和去物質(zhì)形態(tài)化。CD光盤和電腦芯片的價(jià)值主要在于其功能和人類智慧、技術(shù)賦予它的特征，而不是它的物質(zhì)材料。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的去物質(zhì)形態(tài)化已經(jīng)非常明顯，美國(guó)就是一個(gè)例證，其目前最大的出口項(xiàng)目是娛樂，每年高達(dá)300億美元。我們經(jīng)濟(jì)生活的去物質(zhì)形態(tài)化為實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供了最有希望的路徑。

在知識(shí)社會(huì)，教育體系和機(jī)構(gòu)、政策和激勵(lì)體系將成為每一個(gè)國(guó)家取得比較優(yōu)勢(shì)和成功的主要因素，因?yàn)榻逃w系和機(jī)構(gòu)幫助人們開發(fā)并運(yùn)用知識(shí)和技術(shù)，這些知識(shí)和技術(shù)對(duì)社會(huì)的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)起著關(guān)鍵作用，而政策和激勵(lì)體系則給人們以動(dòng)力。對(duì)此，中國(guó)比其他任何一個(gè)國(guó)家都更急需，也擁有更大的機(jī)會(huì)。

新經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與國(guó)際協(xié)議

氣候變化的危險(xiǎn)日益嚴(yán)峻，這是威脅全球社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的首要危險(xiǎn)，即使它不是唯一一個(gè)，而且這一危險(xiǎn)無人能避免。目前，我們已經(jīng)感受到了極端氣候變化、特大洪水和干旱、高山地帶冰河融化帶來的影響，包括喜馬拉雅山脈正影響著中印兩國(guó)成千上萬人口依賴的多條河流。盡管單位排放量指標(biāo)仍低于美國(guó)和其他主要工業(yè)國(guó)家，中國(guó)現(xiàn)在仍成為世界二氧化碳排放的主要國(guó)家。而且中國(guó)也將不幸成為受其危害最嚴(yán)重的國(guó)家之一。《京都議定書》、《聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化框架公約》和近期排放貿(mào)易權(quán)交易的引入都為中國(guó)減少二氧化碳排放提供了巨大的支持。

兩極地區(qū)冰蓋的加速融化將對(duì)低海拔的沿海地區(qū)造成深遠(yuǎn)的影響，而這一地區(qū)人口眾多。未來，越來越多的人將面臨污染和水資源緊張帶來的影響。這些問題帶來的挑戰(zhàn)和危險(xiǎn)與人類生存息息相關(guān)，且相互影響，這要求各個(gè)國(guó)家、機(jī)構(gòu)和種族之間高度合作，超越歷史成見和未來沖突。

盡管科技帶來了巨大的變化，21世紀(jì)仍很可能見證一些基本、傳統(tǒng)問題的再現(xiàn)，并帶來潛在的沖突：即擁有水、土地和生計(jì)的機(jī)會(huì)與權(quán)利。對(duì)此的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將無比激烈。食物短缺就是一例，它威脅了底層社會(huì)和貧困人口的生活，我們對(duì)此已經(jīng)熟知。

我們必須怎么做呢？

首先我們需要一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的全新范本，它可以整合傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)則和生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的新理論，我稱之為新經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。這個(gè)新范本必須為這樣的一個(gè)體系提供理論基礎(chǔ)，這一體系把自然所提供的服務(wù)和環(huán)境的真正價(jià)值納入經(jīng)濟(jì)定價(jià)和國(guó)民收入核算，且必須包括財(cái)政和監(jiān)管體系以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和環(huán)境的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。

在一個(gè)推動(dòng)全球化進(jìn)程的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中，市場(chǎng)提供了促進(jìn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的信號(hào)，即把征稅的對(duì)象從環(huán)境友好型和社會(huì)友好型的產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)向稍具危害性的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)，實(shí)際上就是合理定價(jià)。任何一個(gè)國(guó)家都不可能在毫不損害經(jīng)濟(jì)的條件下完成這一過程，而是必須通過國(guó)際協(xié)作才能完成。盡管各國(guó)在處理這一問題上各有特點(diǎn)，但只有在國(guó)際協(xié)議的框架下才能完成。

有效地處理這些問題并不僅僅是寄希望于出口，盡管這看上去是那么的合理。19世紀(jì)30年代，美國(guó)進(jìn)步科學(xué)協(xié)會(huì)曾對(duì)可能影響人類的新技術(shù)作了一次調(diào)查，但目前支配人類生活的主要技術(shù)都不在其列。我們必須對(duì)未來有預(yù)見，但我們必須為一個(gè)我們無法準(zhǔn)確預(yù)見的未來做好準(zhǔn)備。人類活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生了極端的結(jié)果，這一過程超越了傳統(tǒng)的國(guó)家、部門和學(xué)科的界限。

我們成為自身未來的代理商，在人類發(fā)展歷史上，我們是第一代擁有這種能力的人。今天我們成功與否將決定我們的未來。這并不要求我們?cè)谏罘绞?、?mèng)想等方面具有同一性，但在關(guān)系采取怎樣的措施維護(hù)人類社會(huì)的福祉和避免災(zāi)害等方面，就要求我們必須在全球?qū)用嫔媳３忠恢拢@樣才能保證個(gè)體擁有自我表達(dá)和自我實(shí)現(xiàn)的權(quán)利。最健康的、可持續(xù)的自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)正是那些能保持高度多樣性的系統(tǒng)，提醒自己這一點(diǎn)非常有意義。保證可持續(xù)性還要求系統(tǒng)必須在合理的基礎(chǔ)范圍內(nèi)，系統(tǒng)健康、有效的運(yùn)行正是基于此。我認(rèn)為，這同樣適用于人類系統(tǒng)。

Dematerialization and Sustainable Development

The environment and the economy are two sides of the same coin. For it is through the economy that we impact on the environment and the environment is both an essential resource for the economy and the consequence of its development. Indeed， those whose primary interests are in the economy are realizing more and more its essential relationship to and dependence on the environment.

What is particularly instructive for China is the realization that despite its remarkable economic growth it is still the least efficient of the world's major economies. There are sound structural and historic reasons for this， but as it requires China to use more energy， more raw materials and produce more pollution per unit of GDP than countries like Japan and some leading European countries， it also produces a great opportunity for China to bridge this \"efficiency gap\" which offers a \"win-win\" means of producing a new generation of internally generated sustainable economic growth.

Already China is demonstrating the progress it has been making in developing renewable sources of energy - solar， wind， and biomass - while improving the efficiency of fossil fuels， notably coal， which continues to provide the biggest single source of China's energy use. The 2007 World Energy Outlook projects that China must invest 3.7 trillion in energy supply infrastructure， three-quarters of it in the energy sector. And car ownership will rise to more than 140 per 1，000 people by 2030 from 20 per 1，000 in 2005. But there is an immense opportunity to effect dramatic reductions of China's primary energy use by 15% in 2030 thanks to efficiency improvements， fuel switching and structural changes. Similar reductions can be achieved in other sectors. The fact that China is still at the early stage in the development of some of its key industries， notably the automobile and energy industries， enables it to make this transition far more rapidly and effectively than its more traditional competitors. But the changes in policies and practices which this requires must be urgently undertaken and vigorously pursued.

Knowledge is clearly the principal resource on which the future growth， development and governance of our modern civilization will be based. Technology manifested in a galaxy of new products and services， design， management and information systems is the primary source of added value and comparative advantage in the global economy. It also offers the main ingredient for the transition to sustainability through patterns of production and consumption that are less physical in nature， and less materials- and energy-intensive. The value of a compact disk or a computer chip is primarily attributable to the functions and characteristics with which human intelligence and technology have endowed it， rather than to its material content. The dematerialization of economic growth is already evident in the fact that the biggest single export of the United States today， amounting to some $30 billion per year， is entertainment. The dematerialization of our economic life provides the most promising pathway to a sustainable future.

In the knowledge society， the educational system and the institutions which help people to develop and apply the knowledge and skills which are the keys to the functioning of their society， and the policies and incentive systems which motivate them， will become the principal sources of comparative advantage and success of each country.No country has a greater opportunity or more urgent need for this than China.

New Economics and International Agreement

The accelerating risks of climate change are a primary， though not the only， example of the risks we face for the sustainability of our global society from which no nation or people can insulate themselves. Already we are experiencing the effects of increased climactic turbulence， extremes of droughts and floods， the melting of glaciers in high mountain ranges， including the Himalayas threatening the great rivers of India and China on which so many millions of people depend for their water. China is now becoming the world's main source of carbon emissions while still much less on a per capita basis than the U. S. and other major industrial countries. It will also unfortunately be one of the most severely affected. The cost of reducing its carbon emissions is receiving great support from the credits available to it under the Kyoto Protocol of the U.N.'s Climate Change Convention and the recent introduction of emissions trading.

Accelerating changes in the ice conditions of both the Arctic and the Antarctic will have a profound impact on the sea level， threatening low-lying coastal areas in which so many of the world's people live.in the future of an increasing number of the world's people is facing growing jeopardy through contamination and reduction of their water supplies.These challenges and the risks to our common survival to which they give rise are inter-related and all require a degree of collaboration amongst the nations， institutions and peoples of the world which is beyond anything yet achieved or in prospect.

Even with the profound changes driven by technology， the twenty-first century is likely to see the re-emergence of some very basic traditional issues with significant potential for conflict: access to water， land resources and livelihoods. The competition for these will intensify. One issue in respect of which we have become dangerously complacent is food security， which poses an ominous threat to the poor and underprivileged.

What will we have to do?

First of all we need a new economic paradigm which integrates the disciplines of traditional economics with the new insights of ecological economics， what I call a new economics. This must provide the theoretical underpinnings for a system that incorporates into economic pricing and national accounts the real values of the environment and services which nature provides. It must include fiscal and regulatory regimes with positive incentives for the achievement of economic， social and environmental sustainability.

In a market economy which drives the processes of globalization， the market provides the signals that motivate sustainable development. This means shifting taxes from products and practices which are environmentally and socially beneficial to those which are least harmful. In effect， getting the prices right. No nation can do this alone without disadvantaging its own economy. It has to be done through international agreement. There is a lot of room for individuality in the manner in which we administer these nationally， but it can only be effectively done within an internationally agreed framework.

Effective management of these issues cannot simply be a matter of placing our bets on the predictions of experts， however plausible they may be. A survey by the American Association for the Advancement of Science in the 1930s of new technologies that may impact on society did not indentify a single one of the main technologies that now dominate our life. We have to have a view of the future， but we must prepare for a future that we cannot reliably predict. The processes through which human activities produce their ultimate consequences transcend the traditional boundaries of nations， sectors， and disciplines.

We are the first generation in history of which it is true that we are literally the agents of our own future. What we do， or fail to do， today will determine our future.This does not require homogeneity in our lifestyles or aspirations. It does require at the global level that we agree on those measures which are essential in avoiding the major risks to survival and well-being of the human community， which ensuring the broadest range of opportunities for individual self-expression and fulfillment. It is instructive to remind ourselves that the most healthy and sustainable natural ecological systems are those which maintain the highest degree of diversity and variety. But to ensure their sustainability requires that they remain within certain basic boundary conditions on which the health and effective functioning of the systems depend. The same， I would contend， is true of human systems.