如果說美國的次貸危機可能拖慢全球經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的步伐，那另一種危機已經(jīng)切切實實地在全世界范圍內引發(fā)了大規(guī)模的災難性動蕩。這里所說的就是全球糧食短缺和食品價格飚升引致的糧食危機。危機讓發(fā)達國家也有些難以招架，但它的破壞力還是真正體現(xiàn)在貧困國家。

為什么會出現(xiàn)糧食危機？危機給人類帶來的災難性打擊有哪些？我們該如何攜手應對？本文把答案一一道來。

In our television age， the mention of a food crisis brings to mind the 1)bloated bellies of starving children. We think of droughts， crop failure， conflicts and the 2)tub-thumping of Bono and Bob Geldof. But now we have a very different sort of food crisis， one that last week for the first time brought food 3)rationing to America when the supermarket giant Wal-Mart restricted customers to four bags of rice per visit.

Make no mistake， the current food crisis has the capacity to transform global politics. There is nothing more fundamental than food.

In Britain， rising grain prices have already undermined the profitability of poultry and livestock farms. Good-quality food will become the preserve of the well-off， while those on lower incomes will have to 4)make do with what they can afford. The

5)chasm between rich and poor will widen further. In the developing world， where hundreds of millions are already struggling to 6)get by， the food crisis threatens to undo all the advances of the past two decades. 7)Untold millions could be forced if not into starvation， then into hunger， malnutrition and misery. Conflict and global instability will

increase. If you thought the world was unstable now， we could soon be looking back on this as a golden age of 8)tranquility.

So serious is the situation that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown declared that the food crisis threatened “to 9)roll back progress made in recent years to lift millions of people out of poverty.” Millions more were promised in Third World aid. But Western intervention on current lines is likely to be 10)futile when the causes of the crisis are complex， global， and likely to be permanent.

Indeed， using the simplistic logic of the Western aid industry， there should be no problem at all.

Despite poor harvests in drought-stricken Australia， last year’s global grain crop broke all records. At 2.3 billion tons， it beat the previous year’s total by almost 5 per cent.

So why the crisis? It is the simple fact that consumption has 11)outstripped even this record harvest. By the simple laws of supply and demand， prices have gone through the roof. The demand has been fuelled by an ever more populous and prosperous developing world.

And this is bringing a 12)seismic change 13)analogous to the oil shocks of the Seventies or the 19th Century population shift from the countryside to towns. Food prices will always 14)fluctuate with global markets， but the era of food so cheap that we in the West never even had to think about it has gone 15)for good.

In simple terms， the world population doubled between 1961 and 1986 and is still growing at the rate of 75 million people a year. A further factor is the rising 16)affluence of the emergent middle classes in China and India and the associated increase in the demand for meat， though this is， as yet， a relatively minor effect.

So what have we in the West done about it?

We have made matters worse by 17)instigating a completely artificial rush to convert food into biofuel to drive our cars， a policy initially driven by a US desire to reduce its energy dependence on 18)volatile Middle East states. Now the EU has joined in， using a so-called green agenda to promote biofuels to try to 19)mitigate carbon emissions and control global warming. Already， 100 million tons of food a year is being diverted to make biofuel.

And in the week when Mr. Brown convened his crisis meeting， a new EU target came into force—2.5 per cent of petrol and diesel should be replaced by biofuel. This is set to rise to 10

percent by 2020， adding massively to the pressure on food production.

Another well-meaning EU initiative wrapped in “green” clothing is the ban on cheap， effective 20)pesticide. More than half of the global harvest is lost to pests and plant disease， yet EU legislation has 21)outlawed the majority of the pesticides on the market. New laws could wipe out 95 percent of the remaining 250 or so and make the development of new products prohibitively expensive. This not an academic problem.

The Eighties ban on DDT which even the World Health Organization now admits was misplaced has cost Africa up to pound;50 billion in lost production and resulted in the deaths of 30

million people.

But then Western politicians have always been driven more by a need to announce grand new initiatives than by logic. Third World aid is almost always counter-productive in the long run. It serves only to fuel corruption， 22)prop up 23)despotic regimes and undermine fragile

local economies. Meanwhile， import

24)tariffs and trade barriers prevent poor farmers getting full market prices. And they also penalize consumers， who have to pay over the odds for staple foodstuffs.

If we are to tackle this food crisis effectively， we in the West have to rethink how we help the 840 million people said to be in 25)chronic hunger. As well as liberalizing trade， we need to encourage increased agricultural productivity. Only farmers can solve the global food crisis， and to help them achieve this we need to make them more efficient.

It has already happened here. Western agriculture has been transformed since the Second World War thanks to mechanization， fertilizers， pesticides and high-yield seed. Now Third World farmers need to be given access to modern growing techniques. World food markets can be stabilized. But the situation is urgent.

Poverty-stricken nations need the 26)rule of law， not the pity of rich neighbours in the West. We need to be tough. Unless we act now it is only a matter of time before we see empty supermarkets and real shortages of food， even in the developed world.

在當今的電視時代，只要一提起“糧食危機”就會讓我們想到挨餓的孩子們那腫脹的肚皮。我們還會想到旱災、糧食歉收、沖突以及強烈呼吁西方提升對非洲援助的歌手波諾和鮑勃·吉爾道夫。然而現(xiàn)在，我們面臨的是另一種截然不同的糧食危機。上星期在美國，超市巨子沃爾瑪破天荒地第一次對消費者限量供應大米，消費者每人每次購買的大米不能超過四袋。

不是開玩笑，目前的糧食危機足以扭轉全球政治走向。對于人類而言，沒有其他任何東西比糧食更加不可或缺。

在英國，持續(xù)飆升的糧價嚴重削減了飼養(yǎng)家禽家畜的農(nóng)場的利潤。優(yōu)質糧食成了富人的專屬，而收入低的窮人則只能勉強度日。貧富差距將進一步加大。在發(fā)展中國家本來已有數(shù)億人掙扎著艱難度日，糧食危機恐怕會把過去二十年取得的點滴進步一筆勾銷。無數(shù)人即使不會餓死，也會陷入饑餓，營養(yǎng)不良和極度貧困的困境中。沖突和全球動蕩會加劇。如果你認為眼下的世界動蕩不安，那么以后再回過頭看，很快你就會發(fā)現(xiàn)這簡直就是太平盛世。

情況是如此嚴重，英國首相戈登·布朗宣稱糧食危機使人類“最近幾年為數(shù)百萬人口擺脫貧困所做的所有努力面臨前功盡棄的危險”。發(fā)達國家再次許諾向第三世界增撥數(shù)百萬款項進行援助。然而，本次糧食危機起因復雜，范圍波及全球，且短期內沒有消退的跡象，發(fā)達國家目前的援助極有可能是徒勞的。

的確，如果單純從西方世界援助機制這種邏輯進行分析，本應不會出現(xiàn)任何問題。雖然去年旱災使澳大利亞農(nóng)作物歉收，但全球谷物產(chǎn)量達到230億噸，比前年增長了差不多5%，創(chuàng)下了歷史新高。

那么，糧食危機因何而來？簡而言之，就是因為這創(chuàng)記錄的糧食供應量，依然趕不上人類對糧食的消費需求量。根據(jù)簡單的供求關系法則，糧價自然會一飛沖天。而發(fā)展中國家的人口增長以及經(jīng)濟發(fā)展進一步刺激了糧食需求。

此次糧食危機給世界帶來的沖擊和變化，不亞于上世紀七十年代的石油危機，以及十九世紀農(nóng)村人口向城市的大遷移。糧食價格總是隨著全球市場變動的，然而，過去那個糧食如此廉價以致西方國家根本不會去擔心糧食危機的日子已經(jīng)一去不復返了。

簡單地說，在1961至1986年期間，世界人口增長了一倍，現(xiàn)在依然保持著每年7500萬人的增幅。另外一個影響糧價上升的深層因素是中國與印度中層階級的崛起及壯大，他們對肉類的需求也在增加，盡管這是目前影響相對較小的因素。

到目前為止，我們西方國家都做了些什么？

我們的所作所為讓人類離絕境的邊緣又靠近了一步——我們人為刻意地鼓動大家把糧食轉化為生物燃料，以便為汽車提供動力。最初發(fā)起這個號召的是美國，他們迫切希望減少對動蕩不穩(wěn)的中東國家的能源依賴。現(xiàn)在歐盟也加入到隊伍中來了，利用所謂的“綠色議程”來推廣使用生物燃料，目的是減少碳的排放量，放緩全球變暖的步伐。現(xiàn)在每年已經(jīng)有1億噸糧食被用作轉化為生物燃料。

就在英國首相布朗先生發(fā)起召開糧食危機會議的那個星期，一項新的歐盟舉措正式生效——2.5%的汽油和柴油應被生物燃料所取代。到2020年，這個比例將增加到10%，進一步給糧食生產(chǎn)帶來巨大壓力。

歐盟另一項初衷良好，并貼上“綠色”標簽的舉措就是禁止廉價高效的殺蟲劑的使用。全球超過一半的農(nóng)作物因病蟲害而歉收，然而市場上大部分的殺蟲劑都已經(jīng)在歐盟的禁用之列。歐盟的新規(guī)定將進一步把剩下大約250種殺蟲劑的95%列入禁令名單，如此一來，今后新的殺蟲劑將是驚人的昂貴。這引發(fā)的后果不是學術上的問題。

就連世界衛(wèi)生組織現(xiàn)在也承認，上世紀八十年代禁止使用殺蟲藥DDT是一個錯誤，致使非洲糧食歉收損失高達500億英鎊，3000萬人因饑餓而死亡。

然而一直以來，西方政治家總是熱衷宣布新的舉措，卻缺乏理智的邏輯。從長遠來看，對第三世界實行的援助基本上是反生產(chǎn)性的，它只會滋生腐敗，為專制政權撐腰，破壞當?shù)卮嗳醯慕?jīng)濟。同時，進口關稅及貿易壁壘為貧困農(nóng)民取得公平的市場價設置了障礙。消費者也成了昂貴的日常食品的受害者。

如果我們想要有效地解決糧食危機，西方國家要重新思考應該如何幫助那8.4億長期處于饑餓狀態(tài)的人們。我們在推行貿易自由化的同時，還要鼓勵提高農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)力。只有農(nóng)民才能解決全球糧食危機，為了幫助他們做到這一點，我們要使他們更加高效。

西方國家已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷過這個階段。二戰(zhàn)以來，機械化、肥料、殺蟲劑以及高產(chǎn)種子的使用，使西方農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)生了脫胎換骨的變化?，F(xiàn)在我們要以先進的種植技術武裝第三世界國家的農(nóng)民。世界糧食市場是可以穩(wěn)定下來的，但這已是刻不容緩要解決的問題了。

極度貧困的國家要建立完善的法規(guī)，而不是一味依靠西方富裕鄰國的同情。在這一點上，我們一定要立場堅定。如果我們現(xiàn)在不立即行動起來，以下情景的出現(xiàn)只是時間問題——有一天我們將會看到超市里空空如也，即使是在發(fā)達國家，真正的糧荒也出現(xiàn)了。