當(dāng)雙鬢染霜的他在新年的爆竹聲中敲開自己的家門時(shí)，這已是他闊別祖國(guó)、闊別妻子的第13個(gè)年頭了。年近七旬的他這次回家，不僅在新年里給老伴與親友們送上了久違的問候，還帶來一份讓人難以置信的驚喜。

作為杭州一名普通的退休工程師，他在美國(guó)花了12年的心血，終于讀懂了云的語言，他將變幻莫測(cè)的云彩里里外外研究個(gè)透，讓它乖乖成了“地震預(yù)報(bào)員”，為他一次次正確發(fā)布地震災(zāi)難預(yù)報(bào)當(dāng)好“參謀”，正由于此，“壽仲浩”這三個(gè)字也成為國(guó)際上響當(dāng)當(dāng)?shù)拿耖g地震預(yù)報(bào)專家的代名詞。

從云彩中預(yù)知臺(tái)風(fēng)

他7歲自制會(huì)開火的小手槍，35年前寫出一整套保護(hù)黃河的方案，1979年又開始研究用化學(xué)方法治理杭州河道污染……壽仲浩從來不缺奇思妙想，不過他與云彩的緣分還是要從1988年8月7日說起。

那是一個(gè)晴朗的傍晚，壽仲浩牽著妻子與小女兒的手在杭州西湖邊散步，發(fā)現(xiàn)天邊的云彩正在不停地翻滾變化，幻化出五顏六色與各種形狀，煞是好看。女兒不禁拍著手掌歡呼：“老師說這叫火燒云，真漂亮。”“這云彩變得好快，簡(jiǎn)直像走馬燈一樣。”妻子附和道。而從小在農(nóng)村長(zhǎng)大、對(duì)氣象預(yù)報(bào)頗有見解的壽仲浩，則在一旁皺起了眉頭：“云彩變化的速度快得驚人，如果不是受強(qiáng)大的氣流影響，絕對(duì)不可能這樣，怕是臺(tái)風(fēng)要來了吧?!”

一回到家，壽仲浩便拿起木條、榔頭和釘子在自家的屋里屋外忙開了：他要將每扇窗戶都釘?shù)美卫蔚?。隔壁鄰居好奇地過來打聽：“老壽，你這是干什么呢?”“臺(tái)風(fēng)要來了?！眽壑俸普J(rèn)真地說。沒想到這個(gè)回答卻引來鄰居的嘲笑：“氣象臺(tái)都沒預(yù)報(bào)，你憑幾朵云彩就知道要刮臺(tái)風(fēng)了?”有意思的是，壽仲浩的話還真靈驗(yàn)，第二天“八號(hào)臺(tái)風(fēng)”便席卷全杭城，西湖邊的大樹許多被刮倒，這下連妻子都不得不佩服壽仲浩的“神機(jī)妙算”了!

第一次預(yù)報(bào)地震

看云看出門道的壽仲浩，接著又在1990年6月20日萬里無云的杭州上空，瞧見了西邊突然出現(xiàn)一道竹竿似的云彩?！斑@絕對(duì)不是普通的氣象云!”他想著，忽然記起《光明日?qǐng)?bào)》刊登的一篇有關(guān)“地震云”的文章，他腦海里電光火石般一閃：“這就是‘地震云’!”

下班后，壽仲浩一頭扎進(jìn)了杭州圖書館地震資料文獻(xiàn)中，找到了由西安科學(xué)出版社出版的《這是地震云》一書。該書描述了“地震云”的形狀，并將其定義為“地震前的一種先兆”，這一說法，證實(shí)了壽仲浩的想法。根據(jù)資料與眼下這條出現(xiàn)在西方上空的竹竿狀云彩，他當(dāng)即向兩位同事預(yù)言：“西面不久將有一場(chǎng)地震?！惫唬?8小時(shí)后伊朗發(fā)生了大地震!這是壽仲浩第一次準(zhǔn)確預(yù)報(bào)地震，并得到了兩位同事的書面證明。

一場(chǎng)地震改變后半生

但真正促使壽仲浩走上預(yù)報(bào)地震之路的，卻是一場(chǎng)發(fā)生在美國(guó)加州的“北山地震(Northridge Earthquake)”。

“要是沒有那場(chǎng)地震，也許就不會(huì)有我們老兩口13年的分離?！毖鐾n穹，壽仲浩打開了記憶的閥門：1993年5月，他應(yīng)在美國(guó)加州理工學(xué)院讀書的大女兒邀請(qǐng)，赴美探親，計(jì)劃暫住一年后即回國(guó)。不料次年1月8日上午7點(diǎn)半(當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間)，他在天空中發(fā)現(xiàn)了一朵形似羽毛的云彩，極像“地震云”，他當(dāng)即拍下照片。沖印出來后又按照自己所掌握的相關(guān)知識(shí)，對(duì)照片中的“地震云”作了各種分析，初步判定在1月12日至27日，南加州帕桑迪那西北，將有一次六級(jí)以上的大地震。

壽仲浩操著半生不熟的英語跑到USGS(美國(guó)國(guó)家地質(zhì)測(cè)繪局)想去說一下他的這一發(fā)現(xiàn)，然而時(shí)逢雙休日，他在USGS辦公室外吃了個(gè)閉門羹，只得等到周一再去，不想地震卻在17日即周一早晨4點(diǎn)30分發(fā)生了!在發(fā)生地震時(shí)的30秒內(nèi)，壽仲浩宛如置身于大風(fēng)大浪的小船中，半步都挪不了。

值得一提的是，這次大地震發(fā)生在美國(guó)地震學(xué)家認(rèn)為的“無震區(qū)”，人員的損失傷亡相當(dāng)慘重。這次地震的時(shí)間、地點(diǎn)、震級(jí)均與壽仲浩的預(yù)測(cè)完全一致，由此他感悟到了自己在這方面的責(zé)任，為了進(jìn)一步探究“地震云”，摸透它們的脾性，于是這位年過花甲的知識(shí)分子改變了探親計(jì)劃，他決定在美國(guó)開始與“地震云”進(jìn)一步“對(duì)話”。這一對(duì)話，竟讓他在美國(guó)又住了12年!

叫板“板塊學(xué)說”

經(jīng)過長(zhǎng)年的研究與實(shí)踐檢驗(yàn)，壽仲浩終于獨(dú)創(chuàng)了一套“地震云”理論。

他的理論認(rèn)為：地殼的薄弱部分在外力下首先破裂，從而引發(fā)小地震，造成多處裂縫，于是地表水沿裂縫向地下滲透，并由摩擦產(chǎn)生的熱量加熱地下水產(chǎn)生了蒸汽，久而久之形成了高壓高熱的蒸汽，這蒸汽沖出地面遇冷凝結(jié)成云，這便是“地震云”的由來。在地震云產(chǎn)生以后，地下產(chǎn)生脫水，巖石的強(qiáng)度突然下降，最終引發(fā)了大地震?！斑@個(gè)理論能夠用事實(shí)加以證實(shí)，”壽仲浩說，“北山地震之前，在震源10千米范圍內(nèi)發(fā)生過79次小地震；唐山地震中有人被燙傷；唐山地震時(shí)平房沒有倒塌，而天花板上卻沖了個(gè)洞等等事例，都與我這項(xiàng)理論不謀而合?！眽壑俸频靡獾匚⑿χ?。

雖然“地震云”理論與“大陸板塊學(xué)說”關(guān)于引發(fā)地震的起因大相徑庭，但他卻信心十足地告訴筆者：“我堅(jiān)信自己的看法是正確的，完全可以挑戰(zhàn)‘板塊學(xué)說’，歷史與時(shí)間將會(huì)替我作出證明。”

理清了“地震云”的來龍去脈，壽仲浩更加醉心于利用這種特殊的云預(yù)報(bào)地震的研究了。他每天工作12小時(shí)，想方設(shè)法搜羅大量的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，終于琢磨出如何區(qū)別“地震云”與氣象云，即觀察此天空云層時(shí)，應(yīng)該弄清天空所積聚的云層是否有特殊形狀、固定的蒸汽源與熱量?是否突然出現(xiàn)?是否具有獨(dú)立的速度?壽仲浩還掌握了用“地震云”尾巴所指的方向來判斷震中，而后比較其“尾巴”大小確定震級(jí)，并以其出現(xiàn)的相隔時(shí)間來確定地震發(fā)生的時(shí)間。

依據(jù)其獨(dú)創(chuàng)的理論，壽仲浩這些年來先后向USGS預(yù)報(bào)了50次地震。按照時(shí)間誤差不超過一分鐘、震中距離誤差不超過1公里、震級(jí)誤差不超過0.1級(jí)的美國(guó)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，壽仲浩這50次預(yù)報(bào)中有34次達(dá)到了“準(zhǔn)確”。他還于1999年5月建立了屬于他自己的地震預(yù)報(bào)網(wǎng)(quake.exit.com)，至今已向全世界預(yù)報(bào)了1400余次地震，準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)到70%。

12年的等候與理解

這位能讀懂云的語言的老者，如今已先后接受了美國(guó)、英國(guó)、印度、伊朗等多國(guó)媒體的采訪，并于2004年參加了聯(lián)合國(guó)空間防災(zāi)應(yīng)用程序會(huì)議以及歐洲地震探討會(huì)議等國(guó)際性會(huì)議。他的論文不但發(fā)表在英國(guó)、土耳其等國(guó)的雜志上，還出現(xiàn)在聯(lián)合國(guó)的空間防災(zāi)文獻(xiàn)上。

在壽仲浩如潮的榮譽(yù)背后，卻是妻子方女士在杭州的12年等候與理解。在分離的日子里，妻子的情緒曾在一次越洋電話中爆發(fā)：“你忘記了自己的年齡與身體是不是?你能不能保證你的研究最終一定成功?你到美國(guó)后一分錢沒賺不說還拿女兒那點(diǎn)可憐的獎(jiǎng)學(xué)金作海闊天空的賭博，你忍心嗎?!……”

同樣遠(yuǎn)在大洋彼岸的女兒卻拿過聽筒阻止母親：“媽，你將爸的事當(dāng)作普通人退休以后的種花養(yǎng)魚吧?人總得做點(diǎn)有益的事?！逼拮酉肓讼胗謫栒煞颍骸叭绻銓⒑蟀肷客度脒M(jìn)去，最后不成功會(huì)后悔嗎?”壽仲浩沉默了一下：“不，我不后悔!因?yàn)槲抑辽倥^?！逼拮咏K于尊重了他的選擇，開始了一個(gè)人在杭州的漫長(zhǎng)等待。

壽仲浩對(duì)妻子深表歉意的同時(shí)，依然對(duì)“地震云”的研究樂此不疲：“2003年12月26日那次伊朗大地震發(fā)生前幾天，我家的網(wǎng)絡(luò)斷了，待其恢復(fù)后，我根據(jù)網(wǎng)上搜集的數(shù)據(jù)判斷伊朗要發(fā)生大地震，趕緊將消息發(fā)布在我的地震預(yù)報(bào)網(wǎng)上，結(jié)果第二天同時(shí)收到中國(guó)地球物理學(xué)會(huì)天災(zāi)預(yù)測(cè)專業(yè)委員會(huì)顧問陳一文先生與土耳其克姆漢立特大學(xué)情報(bào)系主任西立特教授的電子郵件，祝賀我分毫不差地正確預(yù)報(bào)了這次地震，并對(duì)我取得的成績(jī)表示祝賀。但是我高興的同時(shí)又感到悲哀：我能夠挽救這些可能死于地震災(zāi)難的人們，但可惜的是受我手頭的資源與條件所限，不能以最快的速度把一些地震消息發(fā)布出去，不然，可以救更多的人!”壽仲浩感慨地說。

筆者臨走時(shí)，壽仲浩再三表示：“若能得到當(dāng)代伯樂的資助，改善我的研究條件，得到更全的衛(wèi)星云圖與地震數(shù)據(jù)，我的預(yù)報(bào)有可能直沖全世界的大地震，將震中定在20公里的范圍內(nèi)，震級(jí)的誤差能夠到0.2級(jí)，時(shí)間窗口能夠到20天以內(nèi)。那樣，地震給予人們的災(zāi)難將得到最大限度的控制。”

Life

Earthquake Forecaster Who Can Read Clouds

By Shen Menghe

When silver-haired Shou Zhonghao finally came back from the States to reunite with his wife in Hangzhou in 2006， they had been separated for 13 years. Shou， in his 70s， came back not only for sharing Happy New Year wishes with his wife， relatives and friends， but also bringing them an unexpected surprise: He is now internationally recognized as an expert who issues quite accurate earthquake forecasts by analyzing clouds and posting earthquake forecasts worldwide at his Internet website.

Child and man， Shou is full of inspirational ideas. The cloud-gazer of today learned to make a handgun which could fire at the age of 7. He dreamed up an ambitious project to preserve the Yellow River thirty-five years ago. In 1979 he began to research how to use chemicals to solve the pollution that hampered the rivers that crisscrossed the downtown Hangzhou. His destiny with clouds started precisely on the evening of August 7， 1988.

In the early evening of that day， Shou was taking a stroll with his wife and his youngest daughter by the West Lake in Hangzhou. Suddenly he saw the rolling clouds changing rapidly in a fantastic way in the sky. With some knowledge of weather changes gained in his childhood years in the rural area， Shou wondered if a typhoon was coming. He reasoned that the clouds could not have reacted so vehemently and so fast without fierce impacts from powerful air currents. He concluded that it could be the precursor of a typhoon.

Back home that evening， he lost no time making himself busy fastening windows with wooden boards. Neighbors became curious and asked why he was doing this. Shou explained that a typhoon was on its way. Neighbors laughed off his idea because there was no mention of a typhoon by the local weather bureau.And how could Shou tell by the way the clouds changed? But an unexpected typhoon caught the scenic city off guard the next day and brought about heavy disasters. The disaster has been one of the worst memories of local residents in Hangzhou.

Clouds again caught his eyes on June 20， 1990 in Hangzhou. A long thin cloud resembling a bamboo pole suddenly appeared in the cloudless sky and streaked across the western sky. It meant something unusual， Shou said to himself. Then he remembered a newspaper feature about clouds that would precede earthquakes. He thought the cloud could mean an earthquake going to break out somewhere in the west.

He threw himself into the library that day. He compared what he read with what he had seen and came to the conclusion that there would be an earthquake. He made a forecast about an earthquake to his two colleagues that day. Eighteen hours later， a horrible earthquake shook Iran.

But it was another earthquake in the United States that brought unexpected radical changes to his retired life. In May 1993， he went to visit his daughter in California. Shou planned to stay with his daughter for a year. But at 7:30 on the morning of January 8， 1994， Shou saw a feather-shaped cloud in the sky and he thought it could be an indication of an oncoming earthquake. He took photographs and analyzed these pictures. Then he forecast that there would be an earthquake of more than magnitude 6 on Richter scale in southern California between January 12 and 27. Shou went to the local US Geological Survey to report his forecast. But the USGS office happened to be off during the weekend. So he decided to report his forecast on the following Monday. The Northridge earthquake occurred at 4:30 in the early morning of Monday， January 17， 1994. The earth shook for 30 seconds. Shou felt as if he had been on a ship on the raging sea.The disastrous quake verified Shou's accurate prediction. Shou felt he had the responsibility for forecasting more earthquakes and decided to stay in America to do more work on earthquake forecast.

Shou has done a lot in the 13 years. He has developed unorthodox theories to unravel earthquake information hidden in clouds， to explain how an earthquake takes shape and how clouds can herald quakes deep down in earth. His theories are way different from those based on modern geology. Over years， Shou has reported 50 forecasts to USGS. And if measured with American standard for accuracy of an earthquake forecast which tolerates an error of 1 minute in time， 1 kilometer in distance and 0.1 in magnitude， thirty-four earthquake forecasts of the 50 made by Shou were up to the strict standard. This can well testify to the usefulness of his theories on earthquake.

In May 1999， Shou set up an Internet website to forecast earthquakes. So far he has broadcast more than 1，400 warnings from his quake.exit.com. His track record has shown a startling accuracy of seventy percent.

Shou the cloud gazer now has attended a UN conference and a European forum on earthquake. His papers have been published in Britain， Turkey as well as in UN literature.

Behind his success is the eventually earned understanding and support from his wife after the 13-year separation with his wife. Today， he wishes to make more accurate forecast on earthquake. He wishes to make more accurate forecasts and allow longer time windows so that urgent measures can be taken to minimize loss of life and property.

(Translated by David)