H.S. 博爾吉/文　薛洪君/譯

The social and economic implications1 of an aging population are becoming increasingly apparent in many industrialized nations around the globe. With populations in places such as North America， Western Europe， and Japan aging more rapidly than ever before， policymakers are confronted with several interrelated issues， including a decline in the working-age population， increased health care costs， unsustainable pension commitments2， and changing demand drivers within the economy. These issues could significantly undermine3 the high living standard enjoyed in many advanced economies.

人口老齡化帶來的社會(huì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)影響在全球多個(gè)工業(yè)化國家正日漸顯露。隨著北美、西歐和日本等地人口老齡化速度空前加快，決策者們面臨一些相互關(guān)聯(lián)的問題，包括勞動(dòng)年齡人口減少、醫(yī)療保健成本增加、養(yǎng)老金投入難以為繼和經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)需拉動(dòng)因素改變等。這些問題或?qū)?yán)重影響許多發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體一貫享受的高水準(zhǔn)生活。

Advanced industrialized societies are growing older

發(fā)達(dá)工業(yè)社會(huì)日漸衰老

In 2020， there were 727 million people aged 65 or older. This number is expected to more than double by 2050.

2020年，其65歲及以上人口數(shù)量為7.27億。預(yù)期到2050年，這一數(shù)字將會(huì)翻一番還多。

The decline in the working-age population

勞動(dòng)年齡人口減少

A rapidly aging population means there are fewer working-age people in the economy. This leads to a supply shortage of qualified workers， making it more difficult for businesses to fill in-demand roles. An economy that cannot fill in-demand occupations4 faces adverse consequences， including declining productivity， higher labor costs， delayed business expansion， and reduced international competitiveness. In some instances， a supply shortage may push up wages， thereby causing wage inflation and creating a vicious cycle of price/wage spiral5.

人口快速老齡化，意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)中的勞動(dòng)適齡人口變少。這勢(shì)必造成合格勞動(dòng)者的數(shù)量短缺，使企業(yè)更難填補(bǔ)空缺崗位。一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體不能補(bǔ)足職位空缺，無疑會(huì)面臨諸多不良后果，包括生產(chǎn)率下降、勞動(dòng)力成本上升、業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)張受阻和國際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力減退等等。某些情況下，人力供應(yīng)短缺還會(huì)推動(dòng)工資水平上漲，引發(fā)工資虛高，造成物價(jià)/工資持續(xù)飆升的惡性循環(huán)。

To compensate6， many countries look to immigration to keep their labor forces well supplied. While countries such as Australia， Canada， and the United Kingdom are attracting more highly skilled immigrants， integrating them into the workforce can be a challenge because domestic employers may not recognize immigrant credentials and work experience， especially if they were obtained in countries outside of North America， Western Europe， and Australia.

作為補(bǔ)救措施，一些國家考慮通過移民來維系勞動(dòng)力無虞供應(yīng)。像澳大利亞、加拿大和英國等幾個(gè)國家就在吸攬高技術(shù)移民，不過要讓他們?nèi)谌雱趧?dòng)力隊(duì)伍也許是個(gè)難題，因?yàn)閲鴥?nèi)雇主未必認(rèn)可移民的學(xué)歷和工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)，尤其不認(rèn)可在北美、西歐和澳大利亞之外取得的學(xué)歷和工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)。

Increase in health care costs

醫(yī)療保健支出增加

Given that demand for healthcare rises with age， countries with rapidly aging populations must allocate more money and resources to their health care systems. Healthcare spending as a share of gross domestic product （GDP） is already high in most advanced economies; one challenge that advanced economies face is to ensure that when they increase spending， healthcare outcomes actually improve.

鑒于醫(yī)療保健需求隨年歲的增長而增長，人口快速老齡化國家必須為本國醫(yī)保體系配置更多資金和資源。對(duì)大部分發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說，醫(yī)保開支在國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值中的占比已經(jīng)偏高；當(dāng)下發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體面臨的一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)便是，確保醫(yī)保支出的增加真正能讓醫(yī)保成果出現(xiàn)提升。

Additionally， the healthcare sector in many advanced economies faces similar issues， including labor and skills shortages and increased demand for at-home care. All of these cost escalators7 can make it more difficult for existing systems to handle the increased prevalence of chronic diseases， while also addressing the needs of large and growing populations of older adults.

另外，很多發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體內(nèi)的醫(yī)保行業(yè)也遭逢大致同樣的問題，包括勞動(dòng)力及技術(shù)人員短缺、居家護(hù)理的需求趨熱等。這些方向的支出均有增無減，恐怕會(huì)讓現(xiàn)行體系處理慢性病普發(fā)多發(fā)的局面時(shí)愈發(fā)捉襟見肘，且不說還要應(yīng)付數(shù)量龐大且仍不斷壯大的老年人群體的需求。

Increase in dependency ratio

撫養(yǎng)系數(shù)不斷上升

Countries with large populations of older adults depend on smaller pools of workers from which to collect taxes to pay for higher health costs， pension benefits， and other publicly funded programs. This is becoming more common in advanced economies where retirees live on fixed incomes with much smaller tax brackets8 than workers. The combination of lower tax revenue and higher spending commitments on health care， pensions， and other benefits is a major concern for advanced industrialized nations.

擁有大量老年人口的國家勞動(dòng)力人數(shù)較少，國家通過向他們征稅來支付更高的醫(yī)療保健開支、養(yǎng)老金和其他公共開支項(xiàng)目。這一現(xiàn)象目前在發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中越發(fā)稀松平常，那里的退休人員靠固定養(yǎng)老金生活，其稅檔比勞動(dòng)人口低不少。較低的稅款收入加上走高的醫(yī)療保健、養(yǎng)老金及其他必須投入的福利性開支，是發(fā)達(dá)工業(yè)國家的一個(gè)主要問題。

Changes to the economy

經(jīng)濟(jì)生活發(fā)生改變

An economy with a significant share of older adults and retirees has different demand drivers than an economy with a higher birth rate and a larger working-age population. For example， rapidly aging populations tend to have greater demands for health care services and retirement homes. Although this is not necessarily negative， economies may face challenges transitioning to markets that are increasingly driven by goods and services linked to older people. As advanced economies become older over the next 15 years， it remains to be seen whether immigration will fill the voids in sectors left by aging populations or whether the broader economies will have to adjust to changing demographics9.

老年人與退休者占比很大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，與生育率較高、擁有較多勞動(dòng)適齡人口的經(jīng)濟(jì)體相比，有著不同的需求驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。例如，快速老齡化人口往往對(duì)醫(yī)療保健服務(wù)和養(yǎng)老院有更多需求。雖然這未必一定是壞事，但經(jīng)濟(jì)體卻要面臨市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)型的挑戰(zhàn)，即市場(chǎng)越來越受與老年人相關(guān)商品與服務(wù)的驅(qū)動(dòng)。隨著發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體在未來15年間更趨老齡化，靠移民能否填補(bǔ)人口老齡化留出的行業(yè)空白，更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)否被迫調(diào)整以適應(yīng)人口特征的變化，這一切都尚待觀察。

Which countries have the largest percentage of older adults？

哪國老年人比例最高？

Japan is the country with the highest proportion of its population composed of older adults， with 28.2% of people being 65 or older. Other countries with large percentages of older adults include Italy， with 22.8% of its population 65 or older， and Finland， with 21.9%.

老年人在總?cè)丝谥姓急茸罡叩膰沂侨毡荆?5歲及以上人口占到28.2%。其他老年人占比很高的國家有意大利，65歲及以上人數(shù)占人口的22.8%；以及芬蘭，占比為21.9%。

What is the youngest population in the world？

世界人口最年輕的地方在哪？

The worlds youngest countries are mostly in Africa， with Niger having the lowest median age of just 15.2 years. Having a young population can be both an opportunity and challenge for nations.

世界上人口最年輕的國度大多在非洲，其中以尼日爾的中位數(shù)年齡最低，只有15.2歲。擁有年輕的人口對(duì)一個(gè)國家來說可謂機(jī)會(huì)與挑戰(zhàn)并存。

How can countries deal with aging popu-lations？

各國該如何處理人口老齡化問題？

Countries are currently exploring a number of different policies to adapt to economic shifts due to aging populations. A common proposal set forth includes delaying the age of retirement， which effectively lengthens the amount of time that individuals spend working. Other possibilities include decreasing social security benefits， in cases where there are potential deficits， and increase taxes to pay for them.

各國正在探索各式各樣的政策以適應(yīng)人口老齡化帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)改變。一項(xiàng)眾所周知的方案當(dāng)屬延遲退休年齡，這可以有效延長個(gè)人投入勞動(dòng)的時(shí)間。其他可能途徑包括，出現(xiàn)赤字苗頭時(shí)削減社會(huì)保障性福利，并增加稅收來支付福利。

The bottom line10

最重要的事實(shí)

Many industrialized nations are grappling11 with aging populations， which often correspond with a decline in working-age adults and a rise in health care costs. These issues can cause economic strains， particularly when it means that a smaller proportion of the total population has to bear significant social safety net costs. Countries with aging economies are currently exploring a number of possible paths to adapt to these and other economic shifts.

很多工業(yè)化國家正疲于應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化問題，這一問題往往伴隨著適齡勞動(dòng)人口減少與醫(yī)療保健支出上漲。這類難題會(huì)帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力，當(dāng)總?cè)丝谥姓急容^小的一部分人群要承擔(dān)大部分社保凈成本時(shí)，尤其如此。同屬老齡化經(jīng)濟(jì)體的各國正在探索各種可能途徑，以適應(yīng)上述及其他一些經(jīng)濟(jì)改變。

（譯者為“《英語世界》杯”翻譯大賽獲獎(jiǎng)?wù)撸?/p>

1 implication含意。? 2 commitment必須做（或處理）的事情。? 3 undermine逐漸損害（或削弱）。

4 occupation職業(yè)，工作。? 5 spiral惡性螺旋上升（亦作vicious spiral）。? 6 compensate 補(bǔ)償；彌補(bǔ)。

7 escalator逐步上升的人（或事物）；使（某事物）上升的人（或工具）。? 8 bracket（年齡、收入等的）等級(jí)段，檔次。

9 demographics人口統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)（如年齡、性別、家庭人數(shù)、家庭收入等）。

10 the bottom line底線；最重要的事實(shí)。? 11 grapple努力克服（或解決、完成、對(duì)付）。