By Cheng Hanping

On September 10 after the G20 Summit in New Dehli, U.S. President Joe Biden traveled by Air Force One to Hanoi,Vietnam, for a state visit. There, he met with Nguyen Phu Trong, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Central Committee, and other senior state leaders to exchange views on how to deepen cooperation between the two countries.

U.S. President Joe Biden attends a meeting with Nguyen Phu Trong, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee,in Hanoi, Vietnam, on September 10, 2023.(EVAN VUCCI)

On the afternoon of September 10, Nguyen held a welcome ceremony for Biden and his delegation at his official residence.Senior U.S. officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken,National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Ambassador to Vietnam Marc Evans Knapper were in attendance. After the ceremony, Nguyen held official talks with Biden at the CPV Central Committee headquarters. The two sides announced that they would elevate the U.S.-Vietnam relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Previously, Vietnam established comprehensive strategic partnerships with China,Russia, India, and South Korea.

“In my opinion, this is a critical moment,” Biden said to Nguyen during the talk. “The U.S. and Vietnam are important partners. We will deepen bilateral cooperation in important emerging scientific and technological areas,especially in building a more resilient semiconductor supply chain.” Nguyen called the meeting with Biden an “opportunity” to expand bilateral relations and thanked him for an invitation to visit the U.S.

According to the Vietnamese News Agency, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Biden attended the U.S.-Vietnam Innovation and Investment Summit on September 11.Vietnamese Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken co-chaired the meeting.Representatives of government departments, industries, and businesses (including senior executives of the U.S. high-tech firms such as Google and Intel)attended.

On September 11, the Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong hosted a grand state banquet for Biden and his delegation at the Presidential Palace. “Vietnam-U.S. ties are progressing better than ever,” said the president. “Former enemies have become each other’s comprehensive strategic partners. This is truly a model for international relations in terms of reconciling and building relations after a war. This is the result of joint efforts to overcome the ups and downs of history across generations of national leaders and people.”

In Vietnam, Biden also visited the John Sidney McCain III Memorial for the late Republican Senator John McCain, who was held captive in Vietnam during the war. As he departed, Biden seemed quite excited with the outcome of the visit. He sent a message of appreciation to his host and spoke highly of the significance of the upgrading of their bilateral relations.

International public opinion experts paid close attention to Biden’s visit to Vietnam. What is the future of U.S.-Vietnam relations? What impact will the visit have on regional peace and stability?

Biden’s trip to Hanoi has been described as “a trip for influence in Vietnam.”

Trip for Influence?

Singapore’s Zaobao dubbed the Biden trip an attempt to curb China’s influence in the region by deepening cooperation with Vietnam. From the perspective of Washington, both India and Vietnam—compared to Japan and South Korea—are weak links in the web of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, and need improvement.Therefore, Biden’s trip to Hanoihas been described as “a trip for influence in Vietnam.” Biden insisted at a press conference in Hanoi that he did not intend to contain China. However, such a clumsy denial exposed his real intention:seeking influence in Vietnam.

The details and arrangements of Biden’s visit to Vietnam were enough to reveal his strategic intentions. After the G20 Summit in India, Biden did not attend the annual East Asia Summit meetings in Indonesia. Instead, he chose to pay a state visit to Vietnam. Outwardly, it was about a cherished relationship with Vietnam,but under the surface were intentions to increase influence in Vietnam to confront China. The Biden administration was invited, but had no interest in the East Asian Summit meetings which focused on the economy. Instead, he prioritized confrontation in the region.

Over the last six months, significant changes have taken place in international geopolitics and China’s peripheral security situation. Fanned by U.S.speculation and instigation, the dispute between China and the Philippines over Ren’ai Reef in the South China Sea has escalated continuously. Then, the heads of state of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea held a historic gathering at Camp David,the first ever stand-alone official summit of those three leaders. The Spirit of Camp David, Camp David Principles, and other documents released after the summit pointed fingers at China directly. And in August, the U.S. signed a landmark agreement with Mongolia: the “Open Skies” civil aviation agreement.

According to an August 8 U.S. media report, Biden previously said at a political fundraiser in New Mexico that he would visit Vietnam “soon” because Vietnam wanted to upgrade its relations with the U.S. to be a central cooperation partner.The customary tactics of the U.S. as of late (especially the Biden administration)have been to leak secrets to the public in advance. It was an opportunity to drive a wedge in the good-neighborly and friendly relations between Vietnam and China while showcasing the rapidly rising U.S. influence in the world, especially East Asia. He did not consider the awkward position in which Vietnam would be left.

Meaning of ‘Four Nos’

At a press conference, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong stressed that Vietnam’s “Four Nos” defense policy(no military alliance, no affiliation with one country to counteract the other,no foreign military base in Vietnamese territory seeking to act against other countries, and no force or threat to use force in international relations) would not change. Notably, it would not allow affiliation with one country to counteract the other. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized in his meeting with Biden that Vietnam attaches particular importance to economic and trade cooperation with the U.S. specifically,meaning that Vietnam is not interested in being caught in the middle of geopolitical power struggles, especially a new Cold War provoked by the U.S.

It’s obvious that the Vietnamese leadership had defined Biden’s Hanoi trip and upgrading of bilateral relations as steps for economic and trade cooperation,for example to expand Vietnam’s position in the U.S. market and increase bilateral cooperation on the supply chain, semiconductors,and artificial intelligence. And the Vietnamese economy has been stagnant since the beginning of this year, with only 3.3 percent GDP growth in the first quarter and 3.7 percent in the first half of the year. Vietnamese leadership has recognized an urgent need to seek new growth points.

The Vietnamese understand that this era is full of variables with growing competition between great powers. For small and medium-sized countries,this period is of both challenges and opportunities, which calls for increased caution.One wrong choice could cost a nation dearly. For years, Vietnam adopted a “balancing strategy” in its diplomacy to maximize its national interests. In recent years,Vietnam has pursued “bamboo diplomacy”: soft balancing between great powers to cope with the contradictions among them.

From the perspective of the Vietnamese leadership, the nature of the U.S. will not change in the slightest. It will still seek strategies to overthrow and subvert socialist state regimes like Vietnam through “color revolution” and “peaceful evolution” due to the deep-rooted ideology of American elites. The purpose of the U.S. attempt for influence in Vietnam is to use Vietnam as a pawn in a strategic game to incite fierce confrontation between Vietnam and China. Yet,the U.S. has never changed its practice of demonizing Vietnam over human rights, freedom of speech, and other claims. Discord on these issues between the two countries has been constant.

And in this new era of major power competition and cooperation, the nationalist sentiment in Vietnam is fairly high. There were calls for “seizing the once-in-a-millennium opportunity to cozy up to the U.S. to confront and defeat China strategically,” while the U.S. created an impression of initial success in encircling China. For better or worse, Vietnamese leadership finally agreed to upgrade the country’s relationship with the U.S.after 10 years.

The purpose of the U.S.attempt for influence in Vietnam is to use Vietnam as a pawn in a strategic game to incite fierce confrontation between Vietnam and China.

Permanent Neighbors

China and Vietnam are close neighbors sharing affinitive culture. Historically, the two countries fought imperialist and colonial invaders together,including American invaders in Vietnam, when China served as the rear support. During the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the two countries shared good times and bad and provided each other strong support.

In the era of globalization,both China and Vietnam have supported, promoted, and benefited from it. In economics and trade, the two countries are mutually complementary with their bilateral trade growing continuously. During the COVID-19 outbreak, their trade continued to grow against headwinds.

“Neighbors wish each other well, just as loved ones do to each other,” goes a Chinese proverb. The traditional idea of good-neighborly relations persists among the Chinese people. In ancient times,neighboring countries cemented their relations with marriage.Today, China has cemented its relations with neighboring countries in accordance with the principle of “amity, sincerity,mutual benefit, and inclusiveness,” which is a vivid embodiment of Chinese wisdom.

China is a huge market with a population of 1.4 billion people.It is the ideal export destination market for Vietnam’s agro-food products and marine products.The industrial chains of China and Vietnam have been deeply integrated and interdependent.China’s three major initiatives(Global Development Initiative,Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative) and modernization have offered new opportunities for the two countries to improve their relations.

The neighbors do have differences and historical grievances which, however,certainly do not define China-Vietnam relations, nor should they be exaggerated indefinitely.“Differences and frictions are hard to avoid among neighboring countries,” said Chinese President Xi Jinping. “What is important is how to handle and manage them properly.” If the differences and unpleasant matters between two countries are magnified infinitely,the development of their relations will eventually come to a dead end.

According to my own experience and observation, most people in the Chinese general public are not hostile towards Vietnam. On the contrary, they feel good about the country since it’s socialist like China. However, if Vietnam chooses to collaborate with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy to confront China, it would harm the Chinese general public’s friendly perceptions of Vietnam, which would not be conducive for the people-to-people bonds between the two countries nor helpful for bilateral exchange and cooperation in various fields.