Zhou Zhiwei

Cuban youth holding national flags in Havana,the capital of Cuba,to defend national peace and unite against the United States.

The left has dominated the political landscape of Latin America since the beginning of the 21st century.With the election of Hugo Chávez as President of Venezuela in late 1998,the cycle of “Pink Tide” began and lasted until around 2016.Since then,there has been a situation featuring the retreat of the left and the advance of the right in Latin America,which lasted only for about three years.Starting in 2018,and with Fernández,the candidate of the leftwing coalition Front for All elected President of Argentine in 2019,there was a clear swing back to the left in the Latin American political landscape.Between 2020 and 2022,leftwing parties have won elections in Bolivia,Peru,Nicaragua,Honduras,Chile and Colombia,returning Latin America to a majority of left-wing government,which is interpreted as a new “Pink Tide” by the outside world.

THE CAUSES OF THE NEW “PINK TIDE”

Since the tide of democratization in the 1970s,major shifts of Latin America’s political ecology have been closely related to systemic crises in the region,and the “Pink Tide” of the early 21st century was a reflection and critique of the defects of Neoliberalism.In contrast,the new “Pink Tide”this time around is more of a reflection on ineffective national governance in the region.Specifically,the causes for the formation of the new“Pink Tide” in Latin America can be examined at the following levels.

First,ineffective national governance and COVID-19 pandemic attribute to a “shortened shelf life”of the right-wing ruling cycle.The second decade of the 21st century is considered another “l(fā)ost decade” for Latin America.Especially between 2014 and 2019,its annual GDP growth rate on the average was only 0.4%,which was not even close to thatof the preceding “l(fā)ost decade” (0.5%),the debt crisis of the 1980s.This governance predicament led to a gradual ebbing of the “Pink Tide”.However,the performance of right-wing governments was equally unsatisfactory.Under the then dominant right-wing governments,regional countries were further marginalized in the global economy.In 2019,poverty rate and extreme poverty rate in Latin America increased to 30.8% and 11.5%respectively.Due to the continued ineffectiveness of economic and living standard governance,social tensions arising in the late years of the “Pink Tide” were not ameliorated.Prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic,the major countries in Latin America faced heat street politics,with improvement on livelihood issues,such as education,healthcare,sanitation and taxation,becoming the main interest of the general public.

In 2020,the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the systemic economic and social crisis in Latin America.First of all,Latin America was a region where epidemic governance was poor across the globe.Peru,Mexico,Brazil,Colombia and Argentina were among countries of the world with hightest COVID fatality rate.Secondly,the epidemic dealt a heavy blow to econom and livelihood of Latin American countries once more.In 2020,Latin American economies contracted by almost 7%,with per capita GDP regressing to that of 2009 and poverty increasing significantly.According to the statistics of UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNECLAC),the epidemic has made poverty rate in Latin America regress to the level of 2007 and extreme poverty rate,to that of 1995.In other words,the COVID-19 pandemic has wiped out the achievement of Latin America in poverty reduction over the last 20 years.

The two factors above have a huge impact on public opinion in the region,as the 2021 Americas Barometer survey results show that the average government approval rating in Latin American countries was merely 40%in 2020,and the average presidential approval rating was even lower at 32%.In such a situation,elections are prone to produce a higher ideological turnover rate.For example,for the last 2 to 3 years,within the right-wing government cycle,Latin American countries have seen a succession of left turns.

Secondly,the solid base of left-wing forces has made a new “Pink Tide” possible.The Pink Tide that happened in Latin America at the beginning of the 21st century lasted for more than ten years,and during the period the leftwing parties built on a broad popular base and gained a pivotal position in the political landscape.Although the “Pink Tide” began to ebb in 2015,the foundation of left-wing power remained solid.For example,in the 2015 elections in Argentina,the leftwing coalition Front for Victory lost the presidential election but maintained its position as the foremost political force in parliament with 39 seats in the Senate and 95 seats in the Chamber of Deputies;the Brazilian Labour Party lost the 2018 elections but maintained its position as the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies.

Besides,following the ebb of the last “Pink Tide”,Latin American leftwing parties have shown two policy tendencies.First,they have strengthened their dialogue with the grassroots through pluralistic policy initiatives and social media channels,and particularly in response to the issue of corruption that had induced the ebb of the previous “Pink Tide”,they have strengthened inner party ethical and disciplinary building,in an attempt to win over popular trust and approbation.Secondly,They have put in place broader coalitions of parties,and po-litical allies are no longer confined to left-wing parties.For example,in the 2021 Chilean elections,the winning Gabriel Boric formed a left-wing electoral coalition,Constitutional Dignity,which included 8 to 9 left-wing political forces;in the 2022 Colombian elections,the winning Gustavo Petro formed an even broader left-wing coalition front,covering 20 parties and political organizations ranging from the radical left to the centre left.The results show that the left’s approach to strengthening links with the grassroots and expanding the alliance front has had a significant effect and has been an important factor in the left’s regaining political advantage after a short period of retreat.

On June 19,2022,Gustavo Pedro (second from left),a candidate of the left-wing campaign alliance “Union of Colombian Historical Conventions”,at a polling station in Bogota,the capital of Colombia.

MAIN FEATURES OF THE NEW “PINK TIDE”

Around the ebbing of the previous “Pink Tide”,the Latin American political party pattern entered a period of reshuffle and reorganization.However,this process was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.The new “Pink Tide” was formed in the midst of a political landscape whose adjustment was unfinished.In general,the current“Pink Tide” has three main features.

First,the number of left-wing government is unprecedented.In 2021,presidential elections were held in Ecuador,Peru,Nicaragua,Honduras and Chile,all of which were won by the left with the exception of Ecuador.In 2022,the left is still on the rise with Colombia,long dominated by the right,making a historic left turn in the June presidential election.In Brazil,former President Lula takes obvious lead in all major polls.The scale of left-wing dominance now appears to be more widespread than the “Pink Tide” of the early 21st century.The new “Pink Tide” reflects the return of social welfare as a priority issue on the political agenda of Latin America,especially given the leftward shift in Chile and Colombia,where the political culture is relatively conservative.That is consistent with the mechanism behind the previous “Pink Tide”.

Second,left-wing governments in Latin America have become more differentiated.At this stage,Latin American left-wing governments can be broadly divided into three types:the first is the long-ruling left-wing,including Cuba,Venezuela and Nicaragua,whose internal and external affairs have distinct left-wing characteristics and anti-American and antihegemonic nature.The second type is the moderate left,or the more up-todate and open left,of which Chile and Argentina are the main representatives.The ruling parties have a socialdemocratic ideological tradition,but due to the ideological diversity of the parties within the ruling coalition,they tend to be de-ideologicalized and have a stronger sense of diplomatic autonomy.The third type is the relatively populist left,which can be found in Mexico,Colombia,Peru,Bolivia and Honduras.In contrast,this type of left wing is more closely aligned with the new forms of social movements (advocating rights of the disadvantaged,and environmental protection),they emphasize governing for their own popular base,their domestic policies are relatively radical,and their resource nationalism and environmentalism are strong;their diplomatic stance has a strong ideological component,emphasizing national sovereignty,internationalism and a clear critical stance towards the injustices of the international system.

On June 6,2022,the President of Mexico refuses to participate in the Summit of the Americas.

Third,the balance between left and right forces is becoming more balanced.While Latin American politics has shifted back to the left,the intensity of the left-right contest has somewhat increased.The causes for this are,on the one hand,that Latin American countries are still facing a governance predicament,and after trial and error,a situation of two models co-existing but neither prevailing has emerged;on the other hand,the lack of stability in the new political landscape created by the epidemic has objectively provided an environment for political games.At the same time,the emergence of new political forces and political outsiders is becoming a new phenomenon in Latin American politics.This balance of force comes out initially at the level of presidential elections.In the presidential elections in 2021 in Ecuador and Peru,the voting gap between the left and right forces is only 5% and 0.25% respectively;in 2022,in Costa Rica and Colombia,where presidential elections have already taken place,the voting gap between the left and right forces is only 6% and 3% respectively.Secondly,at the level of parliamentary elections,most of the left-wing ruling parties(or ruling coalitions) in Latin America do not have an advantage in terms of seats in parliament.In Peru,the centre-left ruling Liberal Peruvian Party holds only 37 of the 130 seats in Congress,while the main centre-right parties (the Popular Forces Party and the Union for Progress) have a combined total of 40 seats.In Mexico,the opposition coalition gained 56 seats in the Chamber of Deputies,bringing the total number of seats to 197,or 39.4% of the 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies,forming a greater restraint for the ruling coalition.Overall,the balance of force between the left and the right is at its most balanced stage,which is very different from that in the beginning of the 21st century when leftwing forces were overwhelming.

THE PROSPECT OF THE NEW “PINK TIDE”

As aforesaid,the crisis of governance in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic is the main cause for the new “Pink Tide” to emerge in Latin America.Meanwhile,it is also the main challenge to the governance capacity of the current left-wing governments,and more important a key factor in deciding the length of the new“Pink Tide” government cycle.However,in terms of the internal and external environment,the policy space available to Latin American countries to achieve fundamental improvements in economic and livelihood issues is not very roomy.According to UNECLAC forecasts,Latin America’s rate of economic growth is expected to be only 2.1% in 2022,which is less than the global average (3.1%) and Americas will remain the weakest growth region across the globe.

In fact,there is a huge contrast between the current economic difficulties in Latin America and the economic boom of the previous “Pink Tide”.First,Latin American countries are generally facing high unemployment,high debt,high inflation and high interest rates.In 2022,the unemployment rate in Latin America will reach 11.5%,the average public debt to GDP ratio will be around 70%,inflation is expected to rise to 7.1% and interest rates in Latin American countries are adjusted to a historical high,thus forming a dual inhibition of investment and consumption.In addition,the fiscal deficit is around 4.6%to the GDP,above the international warning line of 3%,which also means that there is more limited scope for left-wing governments to expand social spending.Secondly,in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the complicated geopolitical environment,there is little hope for global economic recovery.The external impetus that Latin American countries can garner from trade and investment channels is relatively limited.

The struggle for political consensus is another major challenge for left-wing governments in Latin America,and it involves two main dimensions.Firstly,the cohesion of the ruling coalition.As above mentioned,the return of this wave of the left is due in large part to the formation of a broader party coalition,which brings with it a number of problems,such as balance of interests in personnel arrangements and differences in policy ideas of the allied parties.Secondly,the relationship between government and parliament is difficult.Although the return of the left in Latin America has led to a new “Pink Tide”,it does not have an advantage in terms of parliamentary seats,and in some countries the left is even at a significant disadvantage.As a result,tensions are high in these countries,and the space for policy adjustment and reform of left-wing governments has been directly squeezed,affecting their governance stability.In general,the political environment facing the left in Latin America is more complex than during the previous “Pink Tide”.With fragmentation of political parties and rising conflicts between government and parliament,it is very likely that government and parliament strife will be a general challenge for left-wing governments in Latin America,and the political risks may rise significantly.

At the same time,the new “Pink Tide” in Latin America is facing a more complex external environment,especially the U.S strengthening values-based diplomacy which will certainly cause greater interference in Latin America.Judging by an analysis of U.S.policy logic,to strengthen the shaping of political environment in Latin America will become an important policy option for the U.S.On one hand,the U.S.will continue to strengthen its values-based diplomacy,creating a dichotomy between“good governance” and “bad governance” among left-wing governments in Latin America,and creating divide and antagonism within left-wing governments.The refusal of the U.S.to invite Cuba,Venezuela and Nicaragua to the Summit of the Americas in early June 2022 on the grounds that they were not “democratic” is a typical example of the U.S.reinforcing its values-based diplomacy in Latin America.On the other hand,in the context of the rising intensity of the great power game,the U.S.may further intensify its color revolutions against left-wing regimes in Latin America,interfering in the internal affairs of the countries concerned through public opinion campaigns,election interference,“corruption probes”,stirring up disputes between government and parliament,and bringing in non-governmental organizations,in order to shape a Latin America political ecology which is more favorable to U.S.interests.

In addition,Latin American regional integration will be a topic that deserve expectation for the new “Pink Tide”.It is in line with the left-wing forces for long setting store by national sovereignty,joint self-improvement,and construction of collective identity.A review of the history of international relations in Latin America shows that collective autonomy is a highly consensual vision of the region,even more so among the Latin American left.With the expansion of scope under left-wing rule in Latin America,the diplomatic pressure on Cuba,Venezuela and Nicaragua at the regional level will be significantly ameliorated.At the same time,the Latin American left-wing governments may also intensify their collective pressure on the United States to engage in dialogue on an equal footing with all Latin American countries,and in particular to lift the economic embargo and sanctions against Cuba.In terms of regional integration organizations,the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) may be reactivated,which would help to enhance the capacity of Latin American countries to participate in global affairs and to engage in collective dialogue with countries and organizations beyond the borders of the region.