Ge Hongliang

On May 12 and 13， the U.S.-ASEAN Special Summitwas held in the UnitedStates， the second suchsummit since 2016. The meeting，once“indefinitely postponed”by the White House， was the first chance for ASEAN leaders to meet U.S. President Joe Biden since hetook office. The presidents of thePhilippines and Myanmar wereabsent from the summit.

President Biden announcedthat the summit heralded a new era of partnership between theU.S. and ASEAN， and told theASEAN leaders at the summitthat“a great deal of history ofour world in the next 50 years is going to be written in the ASEAN countries， and our relationshipwith you is the future， in thecoming years and decades.”

According to theJoint VisionStatement released after thesummit， the“new era” PresidentBiden mentioned will berepresented by a“meaningful，substantive， and mutuallybeneficial” ASEAN-U.S.Comprehensive StrategicPartnership （CSP） which ASEANpledged to establish by the 10ASEAN-U.S. Summit in November2022.

However， the grand wordsin Biden’s remarks did notalign exactly with the country’s financial support. PresidentBiden announced only US$150 million in initiatives to deepen relations with ASEAN， a sharpcontrast to the US$40 billionUkraine aid bill he just signed.

Many in the internationalcommunity criticized Biden forpaying mere lip service to ASEAN.

Still， ASEAN promisedto upgrade the ASEAN-U.S.relations to a CSP—a cooperativerelationship that is neither allied nor united against a third party— for its own interests. A CSP hasthree distinct characteristics：First， it defines the sides aspartners rather than opponentsor rivals. Second， a CSP is notexpedient; it is supposed tobe a relationship that is all-encompassing and long-lasting.Third， such a partnership is ofconstructive significance; itneither demands exclusivity nor targets a third party.

ASEAN chose to make thosepromises because of the nature and features of the agreement.

The ASEAN Approach

ASEAN’s promise to upgrade the ASEAN-U.S. relations isconsistent with the logic of the “ASEAN approach.”

The“ASEAN approach” refersto the consultation and decision- making approaches graduallyformed based on regionalcultures since the establishment of the regional bloc. It ischaracterized by consultativeagreement and gradual progress， and ASEAN’s decision to boostASEAN-U.S. relations is theembodiment of such“gradualprogress.”

ASEAN has been following the principle of“gradual progress”when participating in regionaland international affairs andcoordinating relations amongmember countries. It stressesthe importance of“comfortlevel，” making it a prerequisitefor successful multilateralconsultations and negotiations.It attaches importance to thenegotiation framework and seeks to make gradual progress at a pace comfortable to all.

ASEAN has established CSPswith other major partners.In 2021， ASEAN entered intosuccessive CSPs with Australiaand China， which piqued theimportance of ASEAN on the U.S. diplomatic agenda.

However， the upgrade lackssubstantive significance forASEAN countries. Critics hadpreviously argued that theBiden government’s pivot offocus to Southeast Asia is moreof a political and strategicconsideration seeking gainson security issues without anyattention to the local economy.And the summit did not do much to weaken such assertions.

Although theJoint VisionStatement announced that bothsides would enhance cooperation on various issues includingpandemic control， maritimeflow， economics， connectivity，technological innovation， sub-regional cooperation， and climate change， a meager US$150 millioninvestment and an“Indo-PacificEconomic Framework” of littlepragmatic significance will hardly create the dynamics to drivesubstantive cooperation between ASEAN and the U.S.

Prayut Chan-o-cha， PrimeMinister of Thailand， noted that the summit was an importantturning point for implementingASEAN-U.S. cooperationprograms. Singapore’s PrimeMinister Lee Hsien Loong，however， commented thatboosting bilateral relations woulddepend on whether both sidescould engage in substantivenegotiations in the followingmonths.

Essentially， ASEAN’s posturingwhile making the promise toupgrade relations with the U.S.evidenced its dissatisfaction withthe current situation. Whetheror not the Biden administration’spolicies on Southeast Asia willmake ASEAN countries“feelcomfortable” remains to be seen.

Concerns about Uncertainty

ASEAN’s promise to upgradethe ASEAN-U.S. relations isconsistent with the region’sobjective to seek long-termand steady development of therelationship with the U.S.

Many American analysts agreethat U.S.-ASEAN relations dippedto their lowest point during theTrump administration becausethe U.S. government lackedconsistent policies for SoutheastAsia. Trump was absent fromthe East Asia Summit and didnot dispatch an ambassador toASEAN throughout his entireterm in office.

Those four years gave ASEANcountries plenty of time to worryabout the uncertainty of its futurerelationship with the U.S. In theSpecial Summit’s statement，ASEAN stated“our cooperationhas long been indispensableto ASEAN.” ASEAN hopes thatthe Biden government doespivot focus to Southeast Asiaand guarantees the consistencyof dialogue and cooperationbetween the U.S. and ASEAN.

Some scholars from SoutheastAsia have already expressedconcerns about the uncertainty ofthe bilateral relationship.“It is nota deterioration of the ASEAN-U.S.relationship that is the real concernhere，” wrote Thomas Daniel， seniorresearcher at the Institute of Strategic & International Studies （ISIS） Malaysia， on May 2.“Rather， it is risk of stagnationor the lack of progress. And there areteething signs that the relationship isnot moving as well as it could.”

Navigating Major Country

Competition

ASEAN’s promise to upgradeASEAN-U.S. relations is consistentwith its past methods to navigatecompetition between major countries.

When the world undergoescompetition between major powers， it tends to cause instability， uncertainty， and insecurity in regional andinternational situations. But ASEANis familiar with such competitionafter consistently serving as a critical platform to navigate major countrycompetition and safeguard regional peace since its establishment.

ASEAN has regularly turned to four strategies to mediate competition and guarantee regional peace.

First， it has been building theASEAN Community to strengthen its capability and resilience in the face of uncertainties and challenges.

Second， it has been stressingASEAN’s code of conduct. ASEAN asksits member countries and dialoguepartners to follow its importantregional documents on code of conduct including the Treaty of Amity andCooperation in Southeast Asia， theZone of Peace， Freedom and Neutrality （ZOPFAN），the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty， and the Declaration ofthe East Asia Summit on the Principlesfor Mutually Beneficial Relations.

Third， it keeps focus on the ASEANFramework and ASEAN centralitywith an aim to facilitate constructiveengagement between ASEAN countries and partners. That point has beenexpressed in the ASEAN Outlookon the Indo-Pacific adopted in 2019.A key document guiding ASEAN’sparticipation in regional cooperation，the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacifichighlights ASEAN’s central role andregional influence， opposes exclusivecompetition， and promotes inclusivedevelopment.

Fourth， firmly it upholdsmultilateralism.

In this context， ASEAN pledging toboost relations with the U.S. should beexpected after it established CSPs withAustralia and China.

For ASEAN， its relationship with theU.S. is essentially an extension of itsregional multilateral framework thatguarantees ASEAN centrality， whichrequires the U.S. to continue supporting construction of the ASEAN Community and demonstrate greater sincerity inpromises to observe the ASEAN codeof conduct. It seeks to promote moreinclusiveness， equality， and the spiritof multilateralism， as promoted in theASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific and in American implementation of regionalstrategies. Singapore’s Prime MinisterLee Hsien Loong made it clear that theIndo-Pacific Economic Framework， animportant agenda during the SpecialSummit， must be inclusive.

The development is logicallyconsistent with ASEAN’s commitmentto boosting ASEAN-U.S. relations.Essentially， it was ASEAN’s diplomaticchoice to navigate relations withAmerica and secure greater value incompetition between major countries.