Fu Bingbing

On September 15， 2022， the Center for Exhibition Industry Research （CEIR） announced during its annual Predict Conference that the U.S. business-to-business （B2B） exhibition industry improved significantly in Q2 2022 from the previous nine quarters. Cancellation rates for physical inperson events continue to drop， improving from 100.0% in Q2 2020 to 66.2% in Q2 2021， and rates sank to just 2.0% in Q2 2022.

The drop in cancellations and the improvement in completed events boosted the Q2 2022 Index result. However， as expected， the CEIR Total Index – a measure of overall exhibition performance – remains in recovery， still falling below 2019 levels， with a result 25.5% lower than 2019 as shown in Figure 2 below. Nonetheless， this is a vast improvement compared to the past two years： a decline of 100.0% from 2019 in Q2 2020， 75.1% from 2019 in Q2 2021， and recently， 37.9% from 2019 in Q1 2022.

U.S. GDP and the CEIR Total Index

The performance of the U.S. economy was far better， registering a 3.8% increase in real （inflation-adjusted） GDP from Q2 2019 to Q2 2022. On a seasonally adjusted annual rate （SAAR） basis， real GDP in Q2 declined 0.6% from the previous quarter， on top of a decline of 1.6% SAAR in Q1. The drop in real GDP reflected primarily decreases in private inventory investment and， to a lesser extent， government spending at all levels and nonresidential fixed investment. These declines were partly offset by increases in personal consumption expenditures. Imports， which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP， increased， but the trade deficit narrowed due to strong export gains. Had private inventory investment stayed the same， real GDP would have increased by 1.6% SAAR. The recent slower pace of inventory accumulation bodes well for GDP growth during the second half of the year， as many firms will place new orders rather than rely on existing stocks of merchandise. During the past two years， economic recovery has been led by strong spending on goods. However， the initially sluggish recovery in services industries recently has continued to pick up the pace. In Q2 2022， real spending on consumer services finally recovered pandemic losses， exceeding Q4 2019 spending levels by 0.9%. Other services industries are seeing similar improvements.

In the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis （BEA） income side of the measurement for the economy， gross domestic income （GDI）， U.S production expanded 1.8% SAAR in Q1 and 1.4% SAAR in Q2. Thus， there are unusually substantial discrepancies between the expenditure approach of GDP and income approach of GDI. Historically when that happened， GDP tended to be revised toward GDI. Averaging GDP and GDI， a proxy for the true state of the economy， the economic growth was relatively flat， increased by 0.1% SAAR in Q1 and 0.4% SAAR in Q2. It is very likely that the GDP in Q1 and Q2 might be revised up from a moderate decline to a modest increase.

The August payroll employment level increased by 315，000. Although lower than the enormous jump of 526，000 in July， it was still a solid gain. Furthermore， the employment increase spread across all key goods and services producing industries. The wide-spread employment increase clearly shows that the economy has not encountered “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy” and should expel the claim that the economy is in a recession. While recent corporate earnings reports were mixed， current economic data suggest continuing economic health that should support a moderate increase in economic activities during the second half of the year.

B2B Exhibitions Recovery

CEIR survey research and Index results indicate recovery of the industry will accelerate. CEIR Omnichannel Study results indicate strong intent to return in 2022. The core values of the B2B exhibition channel motivate a return for participation， as COVID-19 ebbs.

“Despite Omicron at the outset of 2022 and variants that have followed， our industry presses on； many have held their events and have done so successfully and safely，” added CEIR CEO Cathy Breden， CMP-F， CAE， CEM. “CEIR research has documented an intent to return to face-to-face engagement at B2B exhibitions， and CEIR Index quarterly results show recovery is happening. With the safety measures implemented at large gatherings that have been held， and with a majority of the population vaccinated and boosted， the recovery of B2B exhibitions should continue in 2022.”