Li Hong

Norwegian Labor Party President Jonas Gal Steller celebrating parliamentary election victory in Oslo. (Photo/Xinhua)

With the Center-Left Coalition led by the Labor Party (Norway) winning the parliamentary election with a sizable margin in September 2021, Norway became the fourth country under the rule of center-left governments in the Nordic region after Sweden, Finland and Denmark. It is against the backdrop of populist parties gaining strength fast in European countries and populism seemingly holding sway in European societies that the four Nordic countries have turned left amass. The center-left parties recapturing government this time around attributes to changes in international environment and internal conditions of Nordic countries, their return to government carrying new features of the times and also facing new challenges under a new situation.

FOUR NORDIC COUNTRIES ALL “TURNING LEFT”

The Nordic region used to be “the fortress of European democratic socialism”, center-left parties having ruled the Nordic countries over a long period of time. However, things have changed since the beginning of the 21st century. Under the impact of the wave of economic globalization and affected by composite factors like terrorist attacks and refugees flood, a major turnabout happened to political party pattern in Nordic countries, right-wing populist parties being on the rise, the Social Democratic and the Labor Party falling into opposition successively with little hope to regain power in the long run.

However, in the past few years, center-left parties have won parliamentary elections successively and become government parties in the Nordic countries once more, making no less than a phenomenal left resurgence. The first turnabout occurred in Sweden, where a coalition of three center-left parties led by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (SAP) defeated the center-right government of the Moderate Party, the Christian Democrats, the Democratic Party and the Central Party in the parliamentary election of 2014, the SAP being back to government after eight years. In April 2019, the Social Democratic Party of Finland (SDP) became the largest party in the parliamentary election and formed a five-party coalition government with the Center Party, the Green League, the Left Alliance and the Swedish People’s Party, marking the resurgence of the SDP after losing its position as the largest party in parliament in 1999. In June 2019, the Social Democrats (Denmark) emerged as the largest party in the parliamentary election and organized a center-left coalition with three left-wing parties of the Socialist People’s Party, the Social Liberal Party and the Red-Green Alliance. In September 2021, the Labor Party became the largest party in the parliamentary election of Norway, it and its center-left coalition partners the Center Party and the Socialist Left Party capturing 89 seats out of 169 seats of the parliament, making Norway a fourth country under a center-left coalition led by the Labor Party after Sweden, Finland and Denmark.

WHY CENTER-LEFT PARTIES WIN ELECTIONS?

The fact that the center-left parties in the four Nordic countries have successively won elections in recent years can be attributed to the following factors.

First, as the negative impact of globalization protrudes, political pendulum effect comes to a head. Since the 1990s, the market and efficiency driven neo-liberalist economic globalization had produced many negative results at the same time as it optimized allocation of resources, improved productivity, and accelerated world economic growth. Coming to the Nordic region, economic globalization had intensified economic competition between regional countries, slowed down the increase in workers’ wages and living standard, and widened the gap between the rich and poor; the arrival of a large number immigrants had reduced social homogeneity, caused antagonism and even division among different ages, occupations and identities, and impaired national cohesion; and negative results of ecological degradation caused by capitalist production and consumption model driven by maximizing profit had continue to build on. The above factors objectively accumulated kinetic energy for the comeback of center-left parties that believe in equality and equity and stand for stronger government regulation.

Second, the center-left parties’ policies returned and included the will of both left-wing and right-wing voters in their respective countries. The focus and main theme of recent elections in the Nordic countries differed from the previous ones. In the past, the elections in various countries used to focus on economic issues. However, things changed in recent years, economic issues fell in the order of consequence, whereas welfare state, refugee policy and climate change became issues that concerned the voters most. Accordingly, the center-left parties readjusted their policies to win more voters.

One, a strong comeback with welfare state policy. Since 1990s, the welfare state system had been in trouble. Against the background of the global financial crisis, the Euro debt crisis and overall economic recession, the center-right parties came to power, mostly pursuing fiscal austerity, adopting measures to cut back on welfare fund and welfare programs, reduce unemployment and sickness benefits, and lower the wages, which resulted in enlarged social inequality. To reverse the weakening and disruption of social welfare system under the rule of center-right parties, the center-left parties of the concerned countries made a strong comeback with welfare state policy. For instance, the SAP emphasized in its election platform on building a trustworthy welfare system, the Social Democrats (Denmark) called for building a stronger welfare society, and the Labor Party (Norway) was committed to achieving a more equitable society.

Magdalena Andersson becomes the first female Prime Minister of Sweden. (Photo/Xinhua)

Two, absorbing and inheriting the center-right parties’ policy of strict control of refugees. Under the overall exclusionary pressure prevailing in the Nordic region, the relevant center-left parties drastically readjusted their policy position on the refugee issue, from being tolerant to hardline. In November 2015, the SAP government introduced strict border control regime, demanding to check the identification of everyone passing through Sweden-Denmark borders and proposing to close the Oresund Strait Bridge that links the two countries. As opposition party, the Social Democrats (Denmark) had supported the right-wing coalition government’s extremely restrictive immigration law, known as the sternest immigration law in Europe, and in election campaign openly committed itself to an immigration policy based on common sense rather than compassion. The dramatic switch to the right by the center-left parties saw to it to continue the restrictive refugee policy under the rule of the centerright parties and won over some of the voters of right-wing parties.

And three, setting great store by the issue of climate change. The center-left parties attached great importance to the climate change issue, stressing on its urgency, seriousness and necessity for taking action. However, different from the green parties and environment parties that call for taking radical measures to control global warming, the Social Democrats and the Labor Party favored incremental measures. The fact that the Social Democrats and the Labor Party set store by the climate change issue and their relatively pragmatic countermeasures responded to the popular, and especially young people’s concerns about the climate change issue and gained their support. Therefore, it is worth noting that to a certain degree, climate catastrophes that visit Europe frequently were one of the factors that helped the center-left parties win elections.

Third, the Nordic party pattern is fragmented and the center-right parties are at relative disadvantage. The Nordic countries are under a multiparty system, and since the 21st century began, as populist forces grew in strength in various countries, right-wing populist parties had one after another entered national parliaments, the continued increase in number of parties in parliament resulting in further fragmentation of party pattern. In general, in the four Nordic countries in question, each has more than seven parties in parliament. The increase in number of parties led to diversion of the vote and continued decrease of major parties’ share in it. In recent elections, previous governing center-right parties for multiple reasons were punished by the voters, being at relative disadvantage. Besides, the strong concerns on the climate agenda by the voters of various countries in fact also implied their discontent over the neo-liberalist socioeconomic policy of the center-right parties driven by the market and efficiency.

All of the above have attributed to the left turn in party politics of the four Nordic countries.

A LEFT TURN WITH POPULIST IMPRINT

From the perspective of changed balance of force, change in the order of consequence in political agenda, and adjustment of policy positions, turning left is a political feature of present-day Nordic countries. However, from the perspective of the continued restrictive refugee policy, the switch of guiding philosophy for immigrant integration, and the redefinition of welfare state, the left turn of the four Nordic countries in essence carries the imprint of populism.

With the return of center-left government, the Nordic countries in question have made domestic and foreign policy readjustment to return to the left-wing tradition: in economic area, ending fiscal austerity pursued by the center-right parties over the years, pursuing relatively more moderate economic policy, reducing personal income tax, and raising tax rate on tobacco, alcohol and fuel; in social area, reconstructing a stronger welfare state to strengthen comprehensive social security during the COVID-19 pandemic, continuing to oppose uncontrolled neoliberalist globalization, and oppose nationalism and populism promoted by right-wing parties; in positions on the European Union (EU), emphasizing on the important role of the EU in common foreign policy, security, ecology and sustainable social development, supporting a stronger EU against the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and reversing some of the anti-Europe and Euro-skeptic tendencies whipped up by right-wing populist parties; in foreign policy, being committed to uphold and enhance rule-based multilateral cooperation.

At the same time, one should note that the center-left parties in the concerned Nordic countries have also absorbed and inherited some of the positions and policies of the right-wing populist parties. First of all, on access of refugees, the centerleft parties have inherited wholesale the center-right parties’ policy of strict control of refugees. Secondly, the center-left parties have made a philosophical switch on refugee integration by taking national integration for their government objective, readjusting the integration policy long held by the mainstream leftwing that is guided by the philosophy of multiculturalism and absorbing the integration policy position promoted by the right-wing populist parties with the “dominant culture” as its core. Third, the center-left parties emphasized on responsibilities that should be taken by welfare beneficiaries. Since retaking government, the center-left parties have given priority to welfare in their respective national political agenda, promising to increase financial input and welfare programs, and to expand the scope of welfare coverage. However, the center-left parties have given more emphasis on the necessity of education, lifelong learning and employment, committing to make action plan to encourage poorly educated, low skilled, and adult female refugees to enter the labor market and to see to it that the latter’s contribution matches social expectations. For the center-left parties, the welfare system remains inclusive, but immigrants who enjoy it also have the responsibility and obligation to accept the mainstream values of the hosting countries.

Syrian refugees waiting for a train to Sweden at Copenhagen Central Station in Denmark’s capital. (Photo/Xinhua)

PROSPECTS OF CENTER-LEFT GOVERNMENTS

Under relatively favorable political circumstances, the center-left parties have made a surprise election hit in the four Nordic countries, successively returning to government and making a regional left turn. However, judging by current conditions, the prospects of the center-left governments there face a number of tests and challenges.

First, the share of the vote by the Social Democrats and the Labor Party that lead the center-left coalitions is not sizable, hence their government base being weak. In the last elections, the share of the vote of major center-left parties the Social Democrats and the Labor Party was less than 30 percent, that of the SDP of Finland was less than 20 percent. Comparing with other parties in the coalition, their comparative advantage in the share of the vote was less than outstanding, reflecting the fact that the Social Democrats and the Labor Party had a limited number of voters, and their power base was less than strong.

Second, the stability of multiparty coalition faces challenges. Since none of the parties won majority of the seats in parliament, all of the four Nordic countries are under multiparty coalition governments. As the coalition parties hold different positions in concrete agenda, the stability and sustainability of the center-left coalitions will be put to tests.

Third, the strength of the rightwing populist parties cannot be overlooked. The performances of right-wing populist parties varied in the elections in the four Nordic countries. The Danish People’s Party suffered a steep decline in its share of the vote, whereas the right-wing parties of Finland put up a better performance, the gap in share of the vote between the the Social Democratic Party of Finland and the True Fins was only 0.2 percent, representing only one seat difference in parliament, the two parties are in an evenly matched situation. The right-wing populist parties remain a strong restraint of the center-left coalition governments.

Four, the center-left governments are also in face of challenges of improving governance efficacy. As traditional major parties in a multiparty system, the most fundamental condition for ruling over a long period of time lies with the fact if the Social Democrats and the Labor Party in the Nordic countries can strike a balance between their vision and the actual needs of the voters, between reconstructing a strong welfare state and maintaining economic growth, and between the climate change issue crying for urgent solution and sustainable economic development, and if they can come up with solutions to the above. It will remain to be observed further in the future if the government plans, government capacities and government performances of the center-left parties in the four Nordic countries can make the voters happy.