陳長(zhǎng)青 李偉瑋 朱相成 劉 菁 李剛?cè)A 許 軻 江 瑜 丁艷鋒,*

江淮稻–麥兩熟種植制度對(duì)氣候變暖的適應(yīng)

陳長(zhǎng)青1李偉瑋1朱相成2劉 菁1李剛?cè)A1許 軻3江 瑜1丁艷鋒1,*

1南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué) / 江蘇省現(xiàn)代作物生產(chǎn)協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心, 江蘇南京 210095;2宜春學(xué)院生命科學(xué)與資源環(huán)境學(xué)院, 江西宜春 336000;3揚(yáng)州大學(xué) / 農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部長(zhǎng)江流域稻作技術(shù)創(chuàng)新中心 / 江蘇省作物遺傳生理國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室培育點(diǎn), 江蘇揚(yáng)州 225009

氣候變暖日益加劇, 近100年來全球地表平均氣溫已經(jīng)上升近1.0°C。稻–麥兩熟是蘇、皖江淮地區(qū)的主流種植制度, 但江淮稻–麥兩熟種植制度對(duì)氣候變暖的適應(yīng)還不清楚。為此, 我們利用34個(gè)氣象站點(diǎn)和45個(gè)物候站點(diǎn)多年歷史數(shù)據(jù)分析了江淮稻–麥兩熟區(qū)氣溫升高特征和作物物候變化規(guī)律。研究表明, 江淮地區(qū)增溫幅度區(qū)域上南高北低, 熟季間麥季高稻季低, 月份間3月份最高。水稻季, 江南地區(qū)播種期推遲3.4 d 10a–1、淮南抽穗期提早2 d 10a–1、淮北收獲期推遲6.2 d 10a–1。小麥季, 江南播種期推遲6.4 d 10a–1、全區(qū)域抽穗期和收獲期有提早的趨勢(shì)。稻–麥茬口期淮北縮短4.6 d 10a–1、江南延長(zhǎng)6.9 d 10a–1。水稻、小麥各生育階段平均溫度沒有顯著變化、花后有效積溫大多呈增加趨勢(shì)。水稻季積溫生產(chǎn)效率變化不大, 小麥季積溫生產(chǎn)效率提高了0.008～0.346 kg hm–2°C–110a–1。氣溫升高降低了江南和淮南地區(qū)小麥產(chǎn)量和淮南地區(qū)水稻產(chǎn)量, 但增加了淮北地區(qū)小麥產(chǎn)量。研究結(jié)果表明江淮稻–麥兩熟種植制度正逐步適應(yīng)了氣候變暖, 通過合理改變播期可以減緩氣候變暖對(duì)作物產(chǎn)量的負(fù)面影響; 可為氣候變化適應(yīng)性栽培和耕作技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提供參考。

稻–麥兩熟; 增溫特征; 物候特征; 積溫生產(chǎn)效率

政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)(Intergovemmetal Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)指出, 到2017全球地表平均氣溫較工業(yè)化前水平已經(jīng)上升近1.0°C, 如果按現(xiàn)在的增溫速率, 到2040年, 全球地表平均氣溫將升高1.5°C[1]。《中國(guó)氣候變化藍(lán)皮書2020》[2]指出我國(guó)是全球氣候變化敏感、影響顯著的區(qū)域, 1951—2019年, 我國(guó)年平均氣溫升高0.24°C 10a–1, 增溫速率顯著高于同期全球平均水平。溫度是作物生長(zhǎng)最關(guān)鍵的影響因子, 顯著影響作物生長(zhǎng)進(jìn)程、產(chǎn)量和我國(guó)糧食安全[3-6]。研究氣候變暖對(duì)我國(guó)作物產(chǎn)量的潛在的影響能為中長(zhǎng)期國(guó)家糧食安全戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。

稻–麥兩熟是我國(guó)南方主流種植制度之一, 面積約600萬公頃, 總產(chǎn)量占全國(guó)稻麥總產(chǎn)量的22%, 為保障我國(guó)糧食安全發(fā)揮了關(guān)鍵作用[7]。江淮是我國(guó)稻麥兩熟面積最大, 產(chǎn)量最高的區(qū)域[8-9]。現(xiàn)有試驗(yàn)研究和模型研究都表明增溫縮短稻麥生育期[10-11],一般降低江淮稻–麥兩熟產(chǎn)量[12-15]。但這些研究并未涉及氣候變暖適應(yīng)性稻作技術(shù)。江淮稻–麥兩熟種植制度能否適應(yīng)氣候變暖還不清楚。為此, 我們利用34個(gè)氣象站點(diǎn)和45個(gè)物候站點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù), 研究江淮稻–麥兩熟區(qū)氣溫升高特征和作物物候變化, 探討江淮稻–麥兩熟種植制度對(duì)氣候變暖的適應(yīng), 以期為氣候變化適應(yīng)性栽培和耕作技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。

1 材料與方法

1.1 研究區(qū)域

本文的研究區(qū)域是江蘇和安徽省長(zhǎng)江以北地區(qū)即江淮地區(qū)主體區(qū)域, 地理位置為114o54′— 121o57′E, 29o24′—35o20′N, 涉及面積18.9萬平方千米。江淮地區(qū)是長(zhǎng)江中下游平原一部分, 南部有少量丘陵, 大多地方海拔在60 m以下。該地區(qū)屬東亞季風(fēng)區(qū), 又屬亞熱帶和暖溫帶的過度區(qū), 季風(fēng)氣候特征顯著, 雨量豐沛, 雨熱同季, 光能充足, 熱量富裕, 其中, 以淮河-長(zhǎng)江為界線, 將江淮地區(qū)劃分為不同的區(qū)域, 各個(gè)區(qū)域雨熱資源如表1所示。

1.2 數(shù)據(jù)來源

氣象數(shù)據(jù)(1980—2019)來自江淮地區(qū)具有連續(xù)氣象資料的34個(gè)準(zhǔn)地面氣象觀測(cè)站(圖1-A), 從國(guó)家氣象局獲取。氣象數(shù)據(jù)主要包括日平均氣溫、最高氣溫、最低氣溫。水稻和小麥物候(播種日期、抽穗日期和收獲日期)數(shù)據(jù)(1990—2013)從江淮地區(qū)與氣象觀測(cè)站就近的45個(gè)物候觀察點(diǎn)獲取(圖1-B)。水稻和小麥產(chǎn)量(1980—2018)從安徽省統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒和江蘇省農(nóng)村統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒獲取。

1.3 研究方法

小麥和水稻生長(zhǎng)期是指從播種到收獲的天數(shù), 營(yíng)養(yǎng)生長(zhǎng)期(vegetative growth period, VGP)是指從播種到抽穗的天數(shù), 生殖生長(zhǎng)期(reproductive growth period, RGP)是指從抽穗到收獲的天數(shù)。稻–麥茬口期是指水稻收獲到小麥播種的時(shí)期。3個(gè)區(qū)域的數(shù)據(jù)由位于各個(gè)區(qū)域的物候觀測(cè)點(diǎn)的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行加權(quán)平均得來。物候站點(diǎn)的氣象數(shù)據(jù)采用鄰近氣象站點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù), 小麥和水稻生長(zhǎng)季的氣候數(shù)據(jù)通過各個(gè)區(qū)域內(nèi)的觀測(cè)點(diǎn)每年的播種、抽穗和收獲時(shí)間點(diǎn), 采用各年逐日值進(jìn)行加權(quán)平均, 求得每年小麥和水稻全生長(zhǎng)季、營(yíng)養(yǎng)生長(zhǎng)期和生殖生長(zhǎng)期的平均溫度、最高溫度、最低溫度, 有效積溫(小麥≥0°C, 水稻≥10°C)和降雨量由各年逐日值相加得來[16]。積溫生產(chǎn)效率為作物單位產(chǎn)量除以有效積溫。由于物候站點(diǎn)的數(shù)據(jù)只更新到2013年, 因此, 我們只比較了1990s (1990—1999)和2000s (2000—2009)的水稻和小麥積溫生產(chǎn)效率。氣候變化趨勢(shì)和小麥各生育進(jìn)程趨勢(shì)以及作物產(chǎn)量趨勢(shì)變化均采用線性回歸模擬。本文對(duì)江淮地區(qū)1980—2018年的實(shí)際產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)用非線性回歸模型進(jìn)行分析, 研究去除趨勢(shì)產(chǎn)量與氣候因素間的關(guān)系, 確定氣候因子對(duì)產(chǎn)量的影響[12,17-18]。具體模型如下:

表1 江淮地區(qū)分區(qū)及氣候特征(1980–2018)

圖1 江淮地區(qū)氣象站點(diǎn)(A)和物候站(B)點(diǎn)空間分布

地圖來源: 全國(guó)地理信息資源目錄服務(wù)系統(tǒng)(https://www.webmap.cn/)。

The above maps are from the National Geographic Information Resource Directory Service System (https://www.webmap.cn/).

2 結(jié)果與分析

2.1 江淮地區(qū)溫度變化特征

從1980到2018年, 江淮地區(qū)7月份地表平均氣溫最高, 1月份最低(圖2)。淮南地區(qū)地表平均氣溫升高明顯, 達(dá)0.43°C 10a–1。從月份上看, 3月份地表氣溫升高幅度最高達(dá)0.85°C 10a–1, 2月份和4月份增溫幅度次之, 其他月份氣溫升高幅度在0.30～0.41°C 10a–1之間。從熟季間看, 小麥季增溫幅度大于水稻季(表2); 水稻季平均溫度、最高溫度和最低溫度增溫幅度分別為0.37、0.34和0.41°C 10a–1, 小麥季平均溫度、最高溫度和最低溫度增溫幅度分別0.48、0.44和0.50°C 10a–1。區(qū)域間, 增溫幅度南高北低; 水稻季淮北、淮南和江南平均溫度分別升高0.33、0.37和0.51°C 10a–1, 小麥季淮北、淮南和江南平均溫度分別增加0.45、0.47和0.61°C 10a–1。

圖2 江淮地區(qū)每月溫度及其變化

2.2 物候變化特性

近30年來, 江淮地區(qū)小麥和水稻物候發(fā)生了明顯變化(表3)?；幢钡貐^(qū)水稻播種期和抽穗期有推遲的趨勢(shì), 收獲期明顯推遲, 達(dá)6.2 d 10a–1; 花前天數(shù)沒有明顯變化, 花后天數(shù)和全生育期天數(shù)分別延長(zhǎng)4.6 d 10a–1和4.8 d 10a–1?；茨纤静シN期、抽穗期和收獲期分別提前1.1、2.0和2.4 d 10a–1,花前天數(shù), 花后天數(shù)和全生育期天數(shù)都有縮短的趨勢(shì), 但不顯著。江南水稻播種期推遲3.5 d 10a–1, 但抽穗期和收獲期沒有明顯變化?；ㄇ疤鞌?shù)和全生育期天數(shù)分別縮短3.4 d 10a–1和3.0 d 10a–1, 花后天數(shù)沒有明顯變化?；幢钡貐^(qū)小麥播種期有推遲的趨勢(shì), 抽穗期有提前的趨勢(shì), 但收獲期變化不明顯, 花前天數(shù)有縮短的趨勢(shì), 但花后天數(shù)都有延長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)?；茨系貐^(qū)小麥播種期無明顯變化, 但開花期和收獲期有提早的趨勢(shì), 花前天數(shù)有縮短的趨勢(shì), 但花后天數(shù)有延長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)。江南地區(qū)小麥播種期明顯推遲, 達(dá)6.5 d 10a–1; 開花期和收獲期有提早趨勢(shì), 花前天數(shù)明顯縮短, 花后天數(shù)無明顯變化。稻–麥茬口天數(shù)淮北地區(qū)顯著縮短達(dá)4.6 d 10a–1, 江南地區(qū)顯著延長(zhǎng)達(dá)6.9 d 10a–1, 淮南有延長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。

2.3 作物生育期積溫和產(chǎn)量變化特性

水稻季淮北、淮南和江南花前、花后和全生育期平均溫度, 都有升高的趨勢(shì); 全區(qū)域花前、花后和全生育期平均溫度, 分別升高0.54、0.07和0.34°C 10a–1。小麥季各區(qū)域花前和花后平均溫度沒有明顯的變化。水稻季淮北、淮南和江南花前、花后和全生育期≥10°C的有效積溫, 都有升高的趨勢(shì)。小麥花前≥0°C有效積溫, 各區(qū)域有降低的趨勢(shì), 淮北和淮南花后和全生育期積溫有增加的趨勢(shì), 但江南有降低的趨勢(shì)。淮北、淮南和江南水稻產(chǎn)量和小麥產(chǎn)量, 都呈逐年上升趨勢(shì)。水稻季積溫生產(chǎn)效率變化不大, 而小麥積溫生產(chǎn)效率呈明顯上升趨勢(shì), 淮北、淮南和江南小麥積溫生產(chǎn)效率分別提高0.317、0.346和0.008 kg–1hm–2°C–110a–1。

表2 江淮地區(qū)小麥季和水稻季增溫趨勢(shì)(1980–2018)

**:< 0.01.

表3 江淮地區(qū)小麥和水稻物候變化趨勢(shì)(1990–2013)

*:< 0.05;**:< 0.01. VGP: 營(yíng)養(yǎng)生長(zhǎng)期; RGP: 生殖生長(zhǎng)期; WGP: 全生育期。

VGP: vegetative growth period; RGP: reproductive growth period; WGP: whole growth period.

2.4 溫度對(duì)小麥和水稻產(chǎn)量的影響

不同地區(qū)的小麥和水稻的產(chǎn)量, 在30年間均呈現(xiàn)不同幅度的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)(表5)。其中, 淮北地區(qū)的小麥產(chǎn)量變化趨勢(shì)最大, 淮南次之, 江南地區(qū)最小?；幢钡貐^(qū)和淮南地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量變化趨勢(shì)分別是江南地區(qū)的6.04倍和5.54倍, 而水稻的產(chǎn)量變化趨勢(shì)為淮南地區(qū)>江南地區(qū)>淮北地區(qū); 不同區(qū)域間小麥和水稻的積溫生產(chǎn)效率和產(chǎn)量變化有相同的趨勢(shì), 小麥的積溫生產(chǎn)效率趨勢(shì)和產(chǎn)量變化趨勢(shì)均要大于水稻的。溫度的升高降低了江南和淮南地區(qū)小麥產(chǎn)量, 但增加了淮北地區(qū)小麥產(chǎn)量。增溫引起淮南地區(qū)水稻減產(chǎn), 但對(duì)江南和淮北地區(qū)水稻產(chǎn)量影響不顯著。從整個(gè)區(qū)域來看, 溫度升高有降低水稻產(chǎn)量的趨勢(shì), 但對(duì)小麥產(chǎn)量影響不大(圖4)。

表4 小麥和水稻各生育階段平均溫度和積溫變化(1990–2013)

VGP: 營(yíng)養(yǎng)生長(zhǎng)期; RGP: 生殖生長(zhǎng)期; WGP: 全生育期。

VGP: vegetative growth period; RGP: reproductive growth period; WGP: whole growth period.

圖3 小麥和水稻積溫生產(chǎn)效率

表5 小麥和水稻產(chǎn)量變化趨勢(shì)及積溫生產(chǎn)效率趨勢(shì)(1993–2009)

*:< 0.05;**:< 0.01.

圖4 溫度對(duì)水稻和小麥產(chǎn)量的影響

A: 最高溫度; B: 最低溫度; C: 平均溫度。

A: maximum temperature; B: minimum temperature; C: average temperature.

3 討論

大量的研究表明氣候變暖顯著影響作物的產(chǎn)量。Zhao等[3]研究表明在不考慮大氣CO2升高、有效適應(yīng)變暖和遺傳改良的條件下, 溫度升高1°C, 降低全球小麥產(chǎn)量6%、水稻產(chǎn)量3.2%、玉米產(chǎn)量7.4%和大豆產(chǎn)量3.1%。我們前期的研究[19]也表明氣溫升高1.5°C, 我國(guó)水稻單產(chǎn)降低5%左右。許多學(xué)者也利用模擬增溫試驗(yàn)在江淮地區(qū)研究了增溫對(duì)水稻和小麥產(chǎn)量的影響。Dong等[20]指出全天增溫對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量影響不明顯, 但白天增溫和夜間增溫降低水稻產(chǎn)量6%左右。Cai等[21]在常熟研究發(fā)現(xiàn)增溫降低水稻30%左右。張?chǎng)蔚萚22]發(fā)現(xiàn)夜間增溫對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量的影響取決于水稻品種。Tian等[23]利用多年試驗(yàn)表明全天增溫、白天增溫和夜間增溫都能增加小麥產(chǎn)量。Hu等[24]指出冬季和春季增溫促進(jìn)了根系生長(zhǎng)和土壤氮有效性進(jìn)而增加小麥產(chǎn)量。但是這些試驗(yàn)研究并未考慮氣候變暖適應(yīng)策略。本研究發(fā)現(xiàn)盡管近30年來江淮地區(qū)氣溫升高明顯, 但是由于新品種、種植制度調(diào)整和栽培耕作技術(shù)的革新, 水稻、小麥產(chǎn)量呈明顯上升態(tài)勢(shì)?；ê蠓e溫的上升和氣溫的逐年上升, 對(duì)水稻和小麥產(chǎn)量沒有明顯影響。這些說明該地區(qū)作物生產(chǎn)方式正逐漸適應(yīng)了氣候變暖的趨勢(shì), 也說明在氣候變暖的情況下, 可以通過遺傳改良、栽培耕作技術(shù)創(chuàng)新等方式進(jìn)一步提高作物產(chǎn)量[25-26]。

一方面, 氣候變暖一般顯著加快作物生長(zhǎng)進(jìn)程, 縮短作物生育期。Tian等[23]研究表明增溫促使小麥開花、成熟提早10 d左右。Zheng等[27]利用10個(gè)小麥品種發(fā)現(xiàn)增溫縮短了花前生長(zhǎng)時(shí)間, 但是延長(zhǎng)了花后小麥生長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。Cai等[21]發(fā)現(xiàn)增溫縮短了水稻花前生育期3 d左右、小麥花前生育期10 d左右, 但對(duì)水稻、小麥花后生育期沒有顯著影響。而張?chǎng)蔚萚22]利用不同年代品種發(fā)現(xiàn), 夜間增溫對(duì)水稻生育期的影響因品種而異, 有的品種縮短, 有的品種不變。本研究表明, 在江淮地區(qū)氣溫逐漸升高的背景下, 水稻、小麥花前生育期大多呈縮短趨勢(shì); 在江南地區(qū)水稻、小麥花前生育期縮短達(dá)到極顯著水平。但是除淮北水稻外, 江淮地區(qū)水稻、小麥花后生育期并沒有明顯變化?；幢彼净ê笊谘娱L(zhǎng)可能與選擇晚熟品種有關(guān)。這些結(jié)果說明氣候變暖可以影響作物生育期[4,28], 但我們可以通過品種選育和栽培耕作措施來調(diào)節(jié)氣候變暖對(duì)作物生育期的影響[25]。

另一方面, 氣候變暖也增加了熱量資源, 延長(zhǎng)了適宜作物生長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間[29-31], 為適應(yīng)氣候變暖創(chuàng)造了有利條件。因此, 科學(xué)家們認(rèn)為通過改變播期和選擇適宜生育期的品種等適應(yīng)性栽培措施, 可以重新配置作物溫光資源以應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變暖[25-26,28]。本研究發(fā)現(xiàn)增溫對(duì)淮北地區(qū)和江南地區(qū)水稻產(chǎn)量沒有顯著影響, 這和淮北地區(qū)和江南地區(qū)水稻播期推遲有關(guān)。水稻播期導(dǎo)致抽穗期推遲, 可以降低花期和灌漿期溫度, 緩解花期和灌漿期高溫對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量的負(fù)面影響[19,25]。而在淮南地區(qū), 播期提早導(dǎo)致抽穗期顯著提前, 可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致花期和灌漿期溫度更高, 從而降低水稻產(chǎn)量。本研究發(fā)現(xiàn)增溫增加淮北地區(qū)小麥產(chǎn)量, 這可能和該地區(qū)播期推遲和灌漿期延長(zhǎng)有關(guān)。但是在江南地區(qū), 盡管小麥播期也推遲了, 但增溫依舊降低了小麥產(chǎn)量; 這可能與江南地區(qū)小麥灌漿期溫度升高最高有關(guān)(表4)。此外, 淮北地區(qū)水稻收獲期推遲和生育期明顯延長(zhǎng), 說明該地區(qū)可以采用長(zhǎng)生育期品種充分利用氣候變暖增加的熱量資源。江南地區(qū)小麥播種期明顯推遲, 利用了氣候變暖下冬季溫度升高的特性, 增加了稻麥茬口期, 有利于提高小麥播種質(zhì)量, 減少冬季旺長(zhǎng)。

本研究表明, 江淮地區(qū)尤其是淮北地區(qū)和江南地區(qū)兩熟種植制度正逐漸適應(yīng)了氣候變暖, 通過合理改變播期可以減緩氣候變暖對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量的負(fù)面影響。但是, 合理改變播期對(duì)減緩氣候變化的具體措施還需進(jìn)一步的試驗(yàn)研究。此外, 氣候變暖還會(huì)導(dǎo)致極端天氣(如高溫、低溫和暴雨等)更加頻繁[28,32]。有研究表明, 極端天氣對(duì)作物產(chǎn)量的影響遠(yuǎn)大于平均氣溫升高的影響[33]。因此, 之后的研究需要重視極端天氣對(duì)江淮稻麥生長(zhǎng)的影響。

4 結(jié)論

江淮地區(qū)氣溫升高明顯, 增溫幅度區(qū)域間南高北低, 熟季間麥季高稻季低, 月份間3月份最高。水稻季, 江南播種期推遲3.4 d 10a–1, 江淮抽穗期提早2 d 10a–1, 淮北收獲期推遲6.2 d 10a–1。小麥季, 江南播種期推遲6.4 d 10a–1、全區(qū)域抽穗期和收獲期有提早的趨勢(shì)。水稻、小麥各生育階段平均溫度沒有顯著變化, 花后有效積溫大多呈增加趨勢(shì)。氣溫升高降低了江南和淮南地區(qū)小麥產(chǎn)量和淮南地區(qū)水稻產(chǎn)量, 增加了淮北地區(qū)小麥產(chǎn)量, 但是對(duì)江南和淮北水稻產(chǎn)量影響不大。本研究表明江淮稻–麥兩熟種植制度正逐步適應(yīng)了氣候變暖, 通過合理改變播期可以減緩氣候變暖對(duì)水稻產(chǎn)量的負(fù)面影響, 可為氣候變化適應(yīng)性的稻作技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提供參考。

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Adaption of rice–wheat cropping system to climate warming in Jianghuai area

CHEN Chang-Qing1, LI Wei-Wei1, ZHU Xiang-Cheng2, LIU Jing1, LI Gang-Hua1, XU Ke3, JIANG Yu1, and DING Yan-Feng1,*

1Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, China;2College of life Science and Resources and Environment, Yichun University, Yichun 336000, Jiangxi, China;3Innovation Center of Rice Cultivation Techno-logy in the Yangtze Valley, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, Jiangsu, China

As the climate warming is increasing, the global average surface temperature has risen by nearly 1°C in the past 100 years. Rice-wheat cropping system is the mainstream cropping system in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, but its adaptation to climate warming is still unclear. We analyzed the characteristics of temperature rise and crop phenological changes in the rice–wheat double cropping area of Jiangsu using the historical data from 34 meteorological stations and 45 phenological stations over the years. The results revealed that the range of temperature increase in Jianghuai area was higher in the south than in the north, higher in wheat season and lower in rice ripe season, and the highest in March. In the rice season, the sowing date in Jiangnan was delayed by 3.4 d 10a–1, the heading date in Huainan was advanced by 2 d 10a–1, and the harvest date in Huaibei was delayed by 6.2 d 10a–1. In the wheat season, the sowing date in Jiangnan was delayed by 6.4 d 10a–1, and the heading and harvest time tended to be earlier in the whole region. The rice–wheat stubble stage was shortened by 4.6 d 10a–1in Huaibei and 6.9 d 10a–1in Jiangnan. The average temperature of rice and wheat during growth period had no significant change, but the effective accumulated temperature post anthesis was increasing. There was no significant change of the production efficiency of accumulated temperature in rice season, while the production efficiency of accumulated temperature in wheat season increased by 0.008–0.346 kg hm–2°C–110a–1. Warming decreased wheat yields in the north of Yangtze River and Huainan area, but increased wheat yield in Huaibei area. In summary, these results indicated that the rice-wheat cropping system in Jianghuai was gradually adapting to the climate warming, and the negative effects of climate warming on crop yield could be alleviated by reasonably changing sowing date. Our findings can provide reference for climate change adaptation cultivation and cultivation technology innovation.

rice–wheat rotation system; temperature rise characteristic; phenological change; production efficiency of accumulated temperature

10.3724/SP.J.1006.2021.02078

本研究由國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2017YFD0300100)和江蘇省省級(jí)現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2019-SJ-039-07)資助。

This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFD0300100) and the Provincial-level Modern Agricultural Development Program in Jiangsu (2019-SJ-039-07).

丁艷鋒, E-mail: dingyf@njau.edu.cn

E-mail: cn828@njau.edu.cn

2020-11-17;

2021-04-26;

2021-05-17.

URL: https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.1809.S.20210516.1229.002.html