莎朗·塞

受新冠肺炎疫情影響，東盟的外商直接投資減少了約1/3，大華銀行的一份報(bào)告顯示，《區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》（RCEP）有望成為東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的新動(dòng)力。

聯(lián)合國(guó)貿(mào)易和發(fā)展會(huì)議（貿(mào)發(fā)會(huì)議）一項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2020年，東盟的外商直接投資為1070億美元（約合7027億元人民幣），降低了31%;全球平均降幅更大，達(dá)到42%。

盡管貿(mào)發(fā)會(huì)議警示，2021年的外商直接投資仍可能保持在較低水平，但大華銀行研究主管全德健認(rèn)為，不少RCEP國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況長(zhǎng)期優(yōu)于其他地區(qū)，RCEP有望成為推動(dòng)?xùn)|盟經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的催化劑。

RCEP涵蓋東盟10國(guó)、中國(guó)、日本、韓國(guó)、澳大利亞和新西蘭，成員國(guó)人口占世界人口1/3，GDP總量占世界GDP的29%。在貿(mào)易規(guī)模上，比美墨加協(xié)議和歐盟都要大。

全德健表示，在RCEP地區(qū)采用協(xié)調(diào)的原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則，能讓成員國(guó)有更多的機(jī)會(huì)進(jìn)行供應(yīng)鏈轉(zhuǎn)移，實(shí)現(xiàn)供應(yīng)鏈多樣化。在新冠肺炎疫情和中美關(guān)系等不確定因素的影響下，這些優(yōu)勢(shì)顯得尤為重要。

不僅如此，他還指出，對(duì)于RCEP協(xié)定外的國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，面向RCEP成員國(guó)生產(chǎn)、出口也頗具吸引力，尤其是東盟和中國(guó)這樣的新興市場(chǎng)，吸引力更加明顯。

在外商投資方面，全德健表示，近年來(lái)，RCEP儼然已成為各國(guó)主要的投資目的地之一。究其原因，在于RCEP擁有龐大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體量，其成員國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展處在不同階段，成本結(jié)構(gòu)和資源稟賦也不盡相同，有利于形成優(yōu)勢(shì)互補(bǔ)。2020年，RCEP的外商投資占全球總量的37%，遙遙領(lǐng)先其他貿(mào)易組織。

貿(mào)發(fā)會(huì)議也指出，RCEP也深度融入全球價(jià)值鏈，占世界全球價(jià)值鏈貿(mào)易額的26%。

全德健認(rèn)為，RCEP的全球價(jià)值鏈主要集中在中國(guó)，以及日本和韓國(guó)等老牌中心，這為越南、柬埔寨等周邊國(guó)家的貿(mào)易與投資創(chuàng)造了空間。他還指出，全球價(jià)值鏈與外商直接投資密切相關(guān)，RCEP內(nèi)的五大全球價(jià)值鏈產(chǎn)業(yè)吸引了總價(jià)值超過(guò)半數(shù)的綠地投資（建立國(guó)際獨(dú)資或合資企業(yè)）項(xiàng)目。

“RCEP是近年來(lái)主要的投資目的地之一，在自貿(mào)協(xié)定生效后，它的地位將進(jìn)一步得到鞏固。”全德健如是說(shuō)，“不僅如此，RCEP深度融入全球價(jià)值鏈，中國(guó)正實(shí)行國(guó)內(nèi)外雙循環(huán)戰(zhàn)略，東盟的人口和收入都在增長(zhǎng)，這些因素也將成為吸引更多投資流入RCEP，特別是東盟國(guó)家的主要?jiǎng)恿Α！?/p>

但東盟國(guó)家2020年吸引投資的表現(xiàn)則是幾家歡喜幾家愁。菲律賓、越南、印尼表現(xiàn)較好，馬來(lái)西亞和泰國(guó)外商投資則有所下滑。盡管菲律賓稱(chēng)其受到了2020年疫情的沖擊，遭遇了有史以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，但外商直接投資仍然增長(zhǎng)了29%。

越南因?qū)π鹿诜窝滓咔榈卯?dāng)?shù)目刂?，加上供?yīng)鏈和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的遷移，外商投資下降較少。

印尼的外商投資則“相對(duì)溫和地”下降了24%，為180億美元。全德健認(rèn)為，印尼努力達(dá)到了2020的投資增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)，外商投資前景光明。

東盟國(guó)家中，馬來(lái)西亞和泰國(guó)則遭遇了東盟最嚴(yán)重的外商投資縮減。

馬來(lái)西亞外商投資減少，部分原因在于政治環(huán)境不穩(wěn)定和疫情期間人員流動(dòng)限制?！暗?020年前三季度，馬來(lái)西亞審批通過(guò)的投資超過(guò)了1000億林吉特（約合1583億元人民幣），尤其是制造業(yè)審批通過(guò)的投資數(shù)額增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁。一旦得到落實(shí)，這些項(xiàng)目將為馬來(lái)西亞今后吸引投資鋪平道路?！?/p>

而根據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)貿(mào)發(fā)會(huì)議，泰國(guó)外商投資縮減歸因于一家外資連鎖超市2020年年內(nèi)被泰國(guó)投資集團(tuán)撤資。全德健表示，由于此前泰國(guó)在外商投資方面一直相對(duì)落后于其他國(guó)家，泰國(guó)的投資前景并不特別樂(lè)觀?！拔顿Y的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)仍將持續(xù)數(shù)年，泰國(guó)的未來(lái)充滿了挑戰(zhàn)?！彼a(bǔ)充道。

由于疫情和國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)低迷，新加坡的外商投資縮減了37%，共580億美元（約合3809億元人民幣），超過(guò)了東盟整體降比。貿(mào)發(fā)會(huì)議表示，這在很大程度上源于新加坡的跨境并購(gòu)銳減了86%，外資收購(gòu)也有所放緩。全德健表示“盡管如此，新加坡的外商投資前景依然樂(lè)觀，區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)有望在2021年回升，凸顯了新加坡作為局部投資窗口的區(qū)位優(yōu)勢(shì)?！?/p>

他還指出，新加坡在2020年吸引到了127億美元（約合834億元人民幣）的固定投資，這是自2008年以來(lái)的最大數(shù)額。新加坡的下一目標(biāo)是實(shí)現(xiàn)制造業(yè)增長(zhǎng)50%，以便為其在中期實(shí)現(xiàn)約20%的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出奠定基礎(chǔ)。

全德健表示：“如同企業(yè)遷移和供應(yīng)鏈再配置一樣，加入RCEP將是后疫情時(shí)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的又一催化劑。”

·來(lái)源：《財(cái)經(jīng)時(shí)報(bào)》

·編譯：謝宗鳴

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership （RCEP） could provide the next impetus for growth in ASEAN， which attracted about one third less foreign direct investment （FDI） on the back of the COVID-19 pandemic， says a report by UOB.

FDI in ASEAN fell by 31% to US$ 107 billion in 2020; globally， the drop was worse — 42%， going by data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development （UNCTAD）.

Although UNCTAD has warned that FDI is expected to remain weak this year， UOBs Head of Research Suan Teck Kin believes the RCEP will be another catalyst for ASEANs prospects ahead， given that the region has historically outperformed other regions.

RCEP is a trade deal that includes the 10 members of ASEAN， plus China， Japan， South Korea， Australia and New Zealand. The members account for nearly a third of the worlds population and 29% of global gross domestic product. The trade grouping is bigger than both the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement and the European Union.

The adoption of harmonized rules of origin in the zone will allow ample opportunities for the shifting and diversification of supply chains within the grouping， especially in light of the COVID-19 pandemic and uncertainty in US-China relations， said Mr Suan.

It is also attractive for countries that are not involved in the free-trade agreement （FTA） to produce and export to RCEP members， he added， especially to the emerging markets in ASEAN and China.

In terms of FDI inflows， RCEP as a grouping has become a main investment destination in recent years due to the size of its economy， as well as a range of countries at varying stages of economic development; the member countries also have different cost structures and resource endowments， he said. FDI inflows into RCEP accounted for 37% of global FDI inflows in 2020， well ahead of other groupings.

RCEP is also highly integrated into the global value chains （GVC）， accounting for 26% of the worlds GVC trade volume， UNCTAD noted.

GVC in RCEP is centred on large and established hubs such as China， Japan， and South Korea， giving room for trade and investment opportunities for peripheral countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia， said Mr Suan. He noted that GVC patterns are closely connected to FDI patterns， with the top five GVC industries in RCEP absorbing more than half the value of greenfield investment project announcements.

“With RCEP the leading destination for global FDI inflows in recent years， this position is likely to be entrenched further once the FTA goes into force. In addition， the regions deep-rooted GVC participation， Chinas dual-circulation strategy and ASEANs rising population and income will also be the main drivers for further investments into the region and ASEAN，” said Mr Suan.

This comes even though performance in the past year was uneven within the region. The Philippines， Vietnam and Indonesia performed relatively better， while Malaysia and Thailand suffered sharper declines in FDI inflows， he noted. The Philippines was the lone exception in the region， with a 29% growth in FDI inflows in 2020 despite the pandemic， and even as the country reported its worst recession on record， he said.

FDI inflows to Vietnam fell more moderately， as the country was able to control the pandemic for the most part， he said. The relocation of supply chains and infrastructure investments also helped to sustain inflows.

Inflows into Indonesia fell by a “relatively mild 24%” to US$ 18 billion. Mr Suan said the outlook for FDI inflows is promising since the country managed to achieve its overall investment targets in 2020.

Malaysia and Thailand logged the worst decline in FDI inflows in ASEAN.

In Malaysias case， it was partly due to political uncertainty and movement restrictions due to the pandemic. “However， with investment approvals in the first nine months of 2020 exceeding RM 100 billion （US$ 33.1 billion）， particularly with strong gains in investment approvals in the manufacturing sector， the actualization of these approvals should pave the way for further inflows in 2021 and beyond，” said Mr Suan.

Thailands performance was attributed to a divestment of a foreign-owned supermarket chain to a Thai investor group during the year， UNCTAD reported. Mr Suan said he was less bullish about Thailand， given that its FDI performance has historically lagged its peers by “a wide margin”. “The outlook for Thailand could be challenging as competition for investment is likely to remain fierce in the years ahead”， he said.

Singapores FDI inflows contracted by 37% to US$ 58 billion， worse than the overall rate for ASEAN， as a result of the pandemic and a slump in business activities globally. This was largely due to an 86% plunge in cross-border mergers and acquisitions， as foreign acquisitions slowed in the region， said UNCTAD.

“Nevertheless， the outlook for Singapores FDI inflows remains positive， as regional economies are expected to see a growth rebound in 2021， which would be favourable to Singapores role as an investment funnel to the region，” said Mr Suan.

He noted that Singapore managed to attract US$ 12.7 billion in fixed-asset investments in 2020， the largest amount since 2008.

In addition， the city-state is planning to grow its manufacturing by 50% over the next target so that the sector continues to contribute about 20% to economic output over the medium term.

“The signing of RCEP will be another catalyst just as companies relocate and reconfigure supply chains in a post-pandemic world，” said Mr Suan.

· Source： Business Times