Dulyapaween Kronsaeng 黃怡哲

不久前，中國審議通過了“十四五”發(fā)展規(guī)劃，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)問題研究專家、泰國法政大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院阿順詩·帕尼察叁副教授在接受本刊記者專訪時表示，中國“十四五”規(guī)劃為其國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展遠(yuǎn)景制定了目標(biāo)和方向。她認(rèn)為此次“十四五”規(guī)劃也可視為“經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定規(guī)劃”，中國追求的更多是穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，尤其是從技術(shù)安全、食品安全、公共衛(wèi)生安全三方面推動經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，而不是單純追求經(jīng)濟(jì)高增速。

以科技自立自強(qiáng)支撐新發(fā)展格局

阿順詩副教授分析說，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的制定要“穩(wěn)”，新冠肺炎疫情沖擊、中美貿(mào)易摩擦等外部風(fēng)險提升，可能影響中國未來長期的發(fā)展。為此，中國將更多地依托內(nèi)需，減少對外依賴，尤其是核心技術(shù)。

“過去，依賴國外技術(shù)是中國科技業(yè)的軟肋，同時還伴隨著風(fēng)險。例如，半導(dǎo)體等關(guān)鍵核心技術(shù)遭遇瓶頸，使中國對此體會更為深刻。中國從中汲取教訓(xùn)，將更注重基礎(chǔ)技術(shù)研發(fā)，通過制定《中國標(biāo)準(zhǔn)2035》，提出了到2035年成為全球技術(shù)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的目標(biāo)?！卑㈨樤姼苯淌谡f。

技術(shù)安全方面，在“十四五”規(guī)劃中，除了研發(fā)支出將年增7%之外，中國瞄準(zhǔn)7大前沿領(lǐng)域，實現(xiàn)科技高水平自立自強(qiáng)，包括：新一代人工智能、量子信息、腦科學(xué)與類腦研究、集成電路、基因與生物技術(shù)、臨床醫(yī)學(xué)與健康、深空深地深海和極地探測。

“中國將加強(qiáng)面向國家戰(zhàn)略需求的基礎(chǔ)前沿和高新技術(shù)研究，強(qiáng)化國家戰(zhàn)略科技力量，一旦取得成功，中國將成為世界科技強(qiáng)國，引領(lǐng)世界科技潮流?！卑㈨樤姼苯淌谡f。

中國經(jīng)濟(jì)“雙循環(huán)”時代開啟

突如其來的新冠肺炎疫情，讓中國對食品和健康安全的關(guān)注度大幅提升，并持續(xù)出臺一系列扶持農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的政策措施，包括進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大糧食種植面積。即使部分農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)成本高于進(jìn)口，但中國仍選擇依靠自己的力量養(yǎng)活14億人口，讓“中國飯碗”更“瓷實”。保障國內(nèi)糧食安全，不論發(fā)生什么，中國都無需懼怕外部環(huán)境的壓力，并加快構(gòu)建國內(nèi)國際雙循環(huán)相互促進(jìn)的新發(fā)展格局。

“新冠肺炎疫情危機(jī)和國外壓力升溫，促使中國更加注重經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行求‘穩(wěn)——科技自立自強(qiáng)，國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)更加強(qiáng)勁，國民收入提高，新一代中產(chǎn)階級消費(fèi)崛起，掀起新的消費(fèi)浪潮?！卑㈨樤姼苯淌谡f，“但這并不意味著中國從此就對外關(guān)上了大門，相反，中國開放的大門只會越開越大，將從最大出口國變成最大進(jìn)口國。中國擁有巨大的消費(fèi)群體，通過實施擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需戰(zhàn)略拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，對各國都有著巨大的吸引力，為此，世界的繁榮也需要中國。例如，泰國旅游收入高度依賴中國游客，每年泰國接待中國游客達(dá)1000萬人次?！?/p>

綜上所述，阿順詩副教授認(rèn)為，如何為更好地適應(yīng)時代的發(fā)展和進(jìn)步，抓住中國機(jī)遇，成為泰國當(dāng)下面臨的巨大挑戰(zhàn);同時要學(xué)會分散風(fēng)險，實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)平衡發(fā)展。

她指出，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)跨越式增長，無疑給競爭對手或包括泰國在內(nèi)的制造商帶來壓力。但無需過于擔(dān)憂，應(yīng)該將壓力轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閯恿?，以更好地實現(xiàn)自我調(diào)整，從中國經(jīng)濟(jì)新格局中尋找機(jī)遇。其中，中國消費(fèi)者的購買力不可忽視，例如，泰國旅游業(yè)要由數(shù)量型向質(zhì)量型轉(zhuǎn)變，深挖更注重健康旅游的高端游客群體，關(guān)注老年旅游這一具有潛力的藍(lán)海市場，也稱為“銀發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)”。

“此外，泰國在中國高度重視的清潔能源方面也存在無限的合作空間，這與泰國BCG經(jīng)濟(jì)新模式（包括生物經(jīng)濟(jì)、循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)和綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)）相契合。如果中泰兩國持續(xù)保持良好關(guān)系，泰國可在多個潛力領(lǐng)域與中國經(jīng)濟(jì)新格局尋求對接，深化合作實現(xiàn)雙方互利共贏?！卑㈨樤姼苯淌谘a(bǔ)充道。

·來源：《TAP東盟博覽》

Not long ago， China deliberated and passed the 14th Five-Year Plan. In the exclusive interview with the reporter from Thailand-ASEAN Panorama， Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn， Expert on Chinas Economy and Associate Professor of Faculty of Economics of Thammasat University said that the 14th Five-Year Plan sets clear goals and directions for Chinas economic development. She believes that the Plan is also a move to stabilize the economy. Instead of fast economic growth， China pursues stable development， especially economic stability boosted by technical safety， food safety and public health safety.

Support new development pattern with science and technology

Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn said that Chinas economic policy formulation should be “stable”， as the impact of the COVID-19， trade friction between China and the US， and other external risks may affect Chinas long-term development in the future. To this end， China will rely more on domestic demand and less on external sources， especially core technologies

“Relying on foreign technology has always been a weakness of Chinas science and technology industry and it was often accompanied by risks， especially in core technologies like semiconductor. Drawing lessons from this， China is determined to focus more on the R&D of basic technology. Through formulating China Standards 2035， China has put forward the goal of becoming a global technology power by 2035，” said Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn.

In technical safety， it is clear in the 14th Five-Year Plan that in addition to a 7% increase in the annual expenditure of R&D， China aims at seven leading-edge areas to achieve high-level scientific and technological self-reliance， including the new generation of artificial intelligence， quantum information， brain science and brain-like intelligent technology， integrated circuit， gene and biotechnology， clinical medicine and health， deep space， deep earth， deep sea and polar exploration.

“China will strengthen the basic frontier and high-tech research following national strategies and enhance the national scientific and technological strength. Once successful， it will become the new global science and technology power， leading the development trend，” said Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn.

China ushers in the era of economic dual circulation development

The outbreak of the COVID-19 has drawn peoples attention to food and health safety. A series of policies and measures to support agricultural production have been launched in China， including enlarging the area of grain cultivation. Although the cost of producing some agricultural products is higher than that of imports， China still chooses to support the 1.4 billion people on its own， making its “rice bowl” more “solid”. Ensuring domestic food security is of great importance. No matter what happens， China will withstand any pressure from the international environment and concentrate on speeding up the construction of the dual circulation development pattern， with domestic and international development reinforcing each other.

“Uncertainty brought by the COVID-19 and pressure from abroad have forced China to stabilize its domestic economic development， for example， being independent in science and technology， pursuing stronger domestic economic development， increasing national income， cultivating a new generation of middle class， and boosting domestic consumption. However， it does not mean that China has closed its door to the outside world. On the contrary， China will open its door even wider， turning to the largest importer from the largest exporter. China has a large consumer base. Through expanding domestic demand to promote economic development， its attraction to foreign countries will be even greater. Therefore， the prosperity of the world is inseparable from China. Take Thailand as an example， its tourism revenue is highly dependent on China， with 10 million of Chinese tourists coming every year.”

To sum up， Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn believes that to better conform to the development trend and seize the opportunities from China， Thailand needs to adjust itself， dispersing risks， and achieve balanced economic development.

She pointed out that Chinas leapfrog economic development undoubtedly brings pressure to competitors and manufacturers such as Thailand. Instead of worrying， Thailand should turn the pressure into a driving force， so as? to better adjust itself and seek opportunities from Chinas new economic development pattern.? For example， if Thailand wishes to transform its quantity-oriented tourism industry into quality-oriented， the high-end tourists who lay stress on health tourism should not be ignored. The senior tourism is also a potential market worth exploring.

“In addition， Thailand has unlimited space for cooperation with China in clean energy. It not only coincides with Thailands Bio-Circular-Green Economic Model or BCG， but also is highly valued by China. If China and Thailand continue to maintain good relations， Thailand can seek more cooperation with China in various potential areas， achieving mutual benefit and win-win results，” said Dr. Aksornsri Phanishsarn.

· Source： Thailand-ASEAN Panorama

· Editor in Charge： Li Min