黎敏

剛剛過去的2020年，《區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》（RCEP）的簽署無疑是區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化建設(shè)的又一里程碑?？傮w來看，RCEP的開放水平顯著高于原有“10+1”自貿(mào)協(xié)定，并納入了多個現(xiàn)代化議題，是一個現(xiàn)代、全面、高質(zhì)量、互惠的大型區(qū)域自貿(mào)協(xié)定。

當我們從慶祝RCEP簽署的熱烈氛圍中走出，未來如何真正實現(xiàn)RCEP的高質(zhì)量發(fā)展，如何應(yīng)對其中的挑戰(zhàn)，似乎更值得我們思考。近期，本刊記者就RCEP建設(shè)及中國—東盟次區(qū)域合作等相關(guān)問題，對南京大學(xué)國際關(guān)系研究院副院長、教授、博士生導(dǎo)師鄭先武進行了專訪。這位曾經(jīng)做過財經(jīng)記者的教授，從經(jīng)濟學(xué)等領(lǐng)域為我們探討這些問題提供了一個獨特的視角。

從貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移到貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造

毫無疑問，RCEP與所有現(xiàn)行的自貿(mào)協(xié)定一樣，在給成員國帶來巨大發(fā)展紅利、給世界釋放多邊主義利好的同時，也會帶來一些新的挑戰(zhàn)。鄭先武認為，評價一個自貿(mào)協(xié)定是否有利于推動區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化，可以從兩個層面來考量，一個是貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移，另一個是貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造。

“所謂貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移，其實就是通過雙方合作，你的產(chǎn)品賣到我這，我的產(chǎn)品賣到你那，讓一個國家的優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)品變得更具優(yōu)勢，劣勢產(chǎn)品有可能更加劣勢，最后在比較優(yōu)勢下，產(chǎn)品脫穎而出。但貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移有一定的弊端，簡單來說，它就如同財富從一個兜里裝進另一個兜里，總體財富并沒有增加，長期來看，這并不是最佳的發(fā)展模式，而且會讓貿(mào)易雙方形成較大的競爭?！编嵪任湔f，“這是國際貿(mào)易中常見的模式，但不一定是RCEP和中國—東盟經(jīng)貿(mào)合作高質(zhì)量發(fā)展要追求的模式。”

鄭先武指出，RCEP要實現(xiàn)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展，更應(yīng)該關(guān)注貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造，也就是通過合作，讓雙方各有所得，并培育出優(yōu)秀的企業(yè)。而如何實現(xiàn)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造呢？需要發(fā)展科技，完善制度、企業(yè)管理等。

從經(jīng)濟學(xué)視角來探討如何實現(xiàn)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造，鄭先武指出，各方需要有一定的經(jīng)濟互補性?！叭绻献鞯膰议g經(jīng)濟互補性很強、鏈條很長，彼此都需要對方的產(chǎn)品，那么在貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移的同時，也會有貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造，雙方就沒有明顯的競爭性?！编嵪任湔J為，目前，中國與東盟國家的經(jīng)濟互補性還不夠明顯，但RCEP的簽署把日本、韓國、澳大利亞等發(fā)達國家引入后，將有利于整個區(qū)域的合作，實現(xiàn)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造。因為這些發(fā)達國家與中國—東盟有非常強的經(jīng)濟互補性。

“所以，對于RCEP未來的發(fā)展，我們在關(guān)注它大體量的同時，更關(guān)鍵的是要考量微觀層面是貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移更多，還是貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造更多?！编嵪任湔f。

科技創(chuàng)新，提升經(jīng)濟互補性

盡管實際中經(jīng)濟的運行是復(fù)雜多變的，但鄭先武認為，我們可以根據(jù)經(jīng)濟規(guī)律做一些前瞻性的工作。比如，RCEP未來要實現(xiàn)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展，基本離不開創(chuàng)造更好的經(jīng)濟互補性。而如何提升經(jīng)濟互補性？我們要將打造比較優(yōu)勢的發(fā)展策略調(diào)整為打造規(guī)模優(yōu)勢。

“中美貿(mào)易摩擦已經(jīng)告訴我們，很大程度上比較優(yōu)勢已經(jīng)算不上優(yōu)勢，別人不生產(chǎn)的東西你生產(chǎn)，本身附加值低還容易受國際市場影響。那么真正的優(yōu)勢是什么？”鄭先武進一步闡釋道，“是規(guī)模優(yōu)勢，這個‘規(guī)模不是簡單的規(guī)模大，而是以科技為支撐的規(guī)模優(yōu)勢，甚至是壟斷優(yōu)勢?！?/p>

目前，中國在5G、高鐵、北斗導(dǎo)航等領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)走在了世界前列，產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢日益凸顯，而這離不開近年來中國對科技創(chuàng)新的重視。未來5年，中國仍將把科技自立自強作為國家發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略支撐，通過科技創(chuàng)新賦能傳統(tǒng)和新興產(chǎn)業(yè)，中國—東盟可以進一步培育經(jīng)濟互補性。

在提升經(jīng)濟互補性的過程中，鄭先武還指出，我們一方面要繼續(xù)對外開放，向發(fā)達國家學(xué)習(xí);另一方面，企業(yè)要更新企業(yè)制度和理念?！安蛔龃箅s燴的比較優(yōu)勢，而要做‘兩個一，即唯一，不做別人都做的事;專一，一旦選擇就腳踏實地地推進，不要急功近利。有了這‘兩個一，慢慢就會成為第一?！编嵪任湔f，“RCEP的簽署是一個很好的開始，它既顯示出中國有強烈的意愿在周邊地區(qū)做一些引領(lǐng);也顯示出在中美兩國競爭的大背景下，中日兩國能夠擱置爭議，在經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域真正開展合作。而中日兩國間的這種合作，將對包含東盟在內(nèi)的整個亞洲地區(qū)產(chǎn)生巨大的影響?！?/p>

打通次區(qū)域合作的“毛細血管”

中美兩國關(guān)系發(fā)展的不確定性是當前世界各國都無法忽視的國際局勢，在兩個大國間，中國與日本、東盟的關(guān)系，美國與日本、東盟的關(guān)系都在發(fā)生著微妙的變化。2020年9月，湄公河5國外交部長、東盟秘書長、時任美國副國務(wù)卿比根共同宣布啟動“湄公河—美國伙伴關(guān)系”。在中國與湄公河5國共建瀾湄合作機制之后，美國這一舉措的意圖不言而喻。

挑戰(zhàn)之下，瀾湄合作未來的發(fā)展更需要智慧和實效。而此前，瀾湄合作已與國際陸海貿(mào)易新通道（以下簡稱“陸海新通道”）實現(xiàn)了對接。

對此，鄭先武認為，瀾湄合作有一定的地理指向性，與“陸海新通道”對接的話，能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)橫向的整合。“‘陸海新通道向南延伸，涵蓋一些瀾湄流域之外的國家，比如新加坡、馬來西亞、印尼等。這樣的話可以在橫向和縱向上進行相應(yīng)的互補?！编嵪任湔f，其次，瀾湄合作與“陸海新通道”關(guān)注的重點議題和合作領(lǐng)域也有一定的互補性。比如瀾湄合作的三大支柱之一是政治安全，在優(yōu)先合作領(lǐng)域里涵蓋水資源、農(nóng)業(yè)和減貧等，而“陸海新通道”更強調(diào)互聯(lián)互通、貿(mào)易投資，注重功能性的一些合作。兩者對接有利于資源的互通有無，合作成果更接地氣。

“從‘一帶一路建設(shè)的視角來看，無論是瀾湄合作還是‘陸海新通道，它們都如同人體的毛細血管，是最微觀的合作領(lǐng)域，如果它們能相互銜接、打通這些血管，那么宏觀層面的‘一帶一路建設(shè)將更為順利。”鄭先武還表示，兩者的對接，短期內(nèi)會為交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)市場帶來新的發(fā)展空間，就中長期而言，它會拉動地區(qū)的貿(mào)易與投資。

但因為發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)相對薄弱，鄭先武認為，本地區(qū)未來在招商引資方面不必一味追求世界500強、國際一流企業(yè)的高大3上，也可以著眼國內(nèi)，尤其是利用好中國構(gòu)建以國內(nèi)循環(huán)為主、國內(nèi)國際雙循環(huán)相互促進新發(fā)展格局的契機，積極與長三角等內(nèi)生動力強勁的地區(qū)進行對接，探尋新的合作機會。

而一個充滿市場活力，具有內(nèi)生動力的瀾湄合作與“陸海新通道”，自然會得到更多東盟國家的真誠點贊。

After eight years of tough negotiations， November 15 saw a breakthrough for regional cooperation as 15 Asia-Pacific nations signed the biggest free trade deal in history. Comprising the 10 ASEAN members， Australia， China， Japan， New Zealand and South Korea， the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership （RCEP） will reduce trade barriers across a third of the worlds population and economic output area. Economists at Johns Hopkins University estimate the pact could add US$ 186 billion to the global economy — a welcome boost as we face the worst recession in a century.

Perhaps more significantly， the RCEP will catalyse Asias long-term integration and is a major milestone in the opening up of China， providing a foundation for membership in more advanced trade agreements.

In its 14th five-year plan （2021-2025）， China must adapt to a post-pandemic world shaped by economic uncertainty and the splintering of global value chains. As Chinas first multilateral trade deal — and the first to include Japan and South Korea — the RCEP， which will remove around 90% of tariffs eventually， meshes powerfully with Chinas dual circulation strategy， which aims to boost self-sufficiency while diversifying integration into global markets.

In “international circulation” — foreign trade and investment — the RCEPs common rules of origin will make cross-border trade simpler and cheaper， allowing Chinese firms to optimize resource allocation between the domestic market and the rest of the region.

Links between China and RCEP supply-chain partners such as Vietnam and Malaysia are already deepening in sectors such as electronic manufacturing. Chinas imports of integrated circuits from ASEAN grew by 23.8% in the first half of this year， while its exports of the same to ASEAN grew 29.1%. ASEAN has surpassed the European Union to become Chinas largest trading partner. The RCEP also dovetails with Chinas plans to internationalize the yuan and develop Hainan into the worlds largest free-trade port.

Just as importantly， the RCEP aligns with another core thrust of Chinas dual circulation strategy： boosting domestic consumption. The rise of the Chinese consumer is already one of the most promising growth stories for the post-pandemic world. In its 14th five-year plan， the Chinese government will further increase consumer spending by raising productivity and wages， strengthening the social safety net and expanding economic opportunities in smaller towns and rural areas.

Earlier this month， President Xi Jinping projected that China would import US$ 22 trillion of goods in the next decade. Firms， workers and farmers in RCEP economies are well-placed to tap this bounty.

Chinas role as the RCEPs main magnet for imports will offset its status as an export powerhouse， and help to balance trade dynamics within the pact. This is important as tensions could emerge if the RCEP were to seriously exacerbate trade deficits in member countries.

Over time， cross-border trade and investment will expand the synergies between Chinas dual circulation strategy and the RCEP， reinforcing the pacts cohesion and viability as a vehicle for deeper regional integration. Like fine wine， ASEAN agreements tend to improve with time.

For China， the RCEP could be a stepping stone for more trade agreements， as the Asia-Pacific becomes a coherent trading zone like Europe or North America， albeit on a grander scale. For example， the RCEP boosts Chinas prospects of sealing the trilateral free-trade agreement with Japan and South Korea. It also weakens obstacles to China joining the CPTPP.

Previously， some voices at home had raised doubts over China joining the RCEP， let alone the less flexible CPTPP， seen as a forerunner of even higher-standard trade agreements. Success in the RCEP will help quell this domestic opposition while reforms take Chinas economy closer to CPTPP rules on issues such as intellectual property， market access and foreign investment.

The two regional agreements are by no means mutually exclusive — seven countries are members of both. In fact， they could form complementary tracks to regional integration： the rigorous CPTPP for more advanced economies and the less-demanding RCEP for developing Asian countries. And China could eventually help to bridge the two projects — under the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific or some other mechanism.

Given that US President Joe Biden is open to renegotiating the pact his predecessor abandoned， the worlds two largest economies could one day come under its common umbrella of trade rules. Not only would this help to stabilize relations between China and the United States， it could also provide a template for World Trade Organization reforms.

International trade and cooperation have suffered in recent years under the weight of populism， protectionism and now the pandemic. Encouraging news on vaccine development and Bidens election victory have raised hopes that the world can turn a page in 2021. As a catalyst for Asian integration and Chinas continued opening-up， the RCEP is yet another reason to be optimistic.