*

1. Institute of Land & Resources and Sustainable Development, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China; 2. School of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China

Abstract Taking Yunnan Province as an example, this paper calculated the real integrated land productivity (RILP) of 16 prefectures (cities) in Yunnan Province for the past 11 years (2009-2019), and analyzed its spatial distribution pattern. The research results show that the RILP of the whole Yunnan Province and all prefectures (cities) showed a slow upward trend. Among them, the province’s RILP showed the highest increase in 2019 compared with the previous year; the RILP of all prefectures (cities) in Yunnan Province has significant spatial autocorrelation, showing obvious positive spatial agglomeration characteristics. Based on this, this paper proposes to improve the overall RILP in various regions according to local conditions and formulate countermeasures for coordinated development of various prefectures (cities).

Key words Real integrated land productivity (RILP), Spatio-temporal variation, Spatial pattern, Analysis, Yunnan Province

1 Introduction

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has achieved steady growth, and people’s living standards have improved significantly. China has become the world’s second largest economy, and China’s GDP has "doubled" time and time again, and the land productivity has also been further improved. However, when making the "cake" bigger, we also face a prominent problem of how to divide the "cake" well. At present, the principal conflict facing Chinese society in the new era has changed to a conflict between unbalanced and inadequate development on the one side and the people’s ever-growing desire for a better life on the other. Unbalanced development has become a very important issue that restricts people’s desire for a better life There are obvious imbalances in the GDP of various regions in China, and the problem of "one leg is long and one leg is short" exists in the land productivity. It is badly necessary to analyze and explore the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of land productivity in various regions, so as to better implement the rural revitalization strategy and the coordinated urban-rural development strategy, accordingly alleviate the problem of uneven development. However, for Yunnan Province, few scholars in the existing academic research have conducted overall analysis and evaluation of integrated land productivity (ILP) in various regions from the perspective of spatial differentiation. This is not favorable for fully understanding the differences in land production levels in various regions and formulating coordinated development countermeasures according to local conditions. In view of this, taking Yunnan Province as an example and uses each prefecture (city) in Yunnan Province as a unit, we analyzed the RILP of 16 prefectures (cities) in Yunnan Province in the past 11 years (2009-2019), and analyzed the differences in land production status between each region, in order to provide support for Yunnan Province to increase the RILP in various regions according to local conditions and formulate countermeasures for coordinated development of various prefectures (cities).

2 Study method and data source

2.1

Calculation

of

ILP

and

RILP

The ILP is an important indicator reflecting the integrated land use and the overall output level. It can generally be expressed by the ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to the total land area. The ILP can be calculated by the following formula:

(1)

where

ILP

means the integrated land productivity,

GDP

is the gross domestic product, and

TLA

is the total land area. However, GDP usually does not contain the impact of price changes, and the value is "falsely high", which may lead to a large increase every year, accordingly not favorable for the analysis of the spatial pattern. In this study, we used the real gross domestic product (RGDP) to take place of

GDP

for analysis, then the

RILP

can be expressed as:

(2)

where

RILP

is the real integrated land productivity (the unit is 10 000 yuan/km),

RGDP

is the real gross domestic product (

GDP

divided by

GDP

conversion index, expressed in 10 000 yuan, and the year 2009 as the base period in this study), and

TLA

is the total land area (expressed in km).

2.2

Spatial

pattern

analysis

Spatial econometrics is widely applied in public management, geography, medicine, finance and other fields, such as the problem of urban and rural population mobility, the impact of land use changes on spatial patterns, and the study of spatial poverty patterns. Since it can deal with spatial autocorrelation issues well, spatial econometrics has increasingly become one of the frontier and mainstream disciplines.

Spatial econometrics includes not only the construction of models, but also the measurement and analysis of spatial autocorrelation; the measurement of spatial autocorrelation mainly uses the Moran index, G index, and C index. In this paper, we mainly selected Moran index for specific analysis, and selected spatial adjacency weight matrix and spatial inverse distance weight matrix in modeling. The Moran index can be calculated by the following formula:

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(3)

where

e

is the residual matrix,

W

is the spatial weight matrix, and

S

is the variance of the observed value

x

.

2.3

Data

source

The total land area of the prefectures (cities) was based on existing land survey data; the GDP data and the conversion index of each prefecture (city) from 2009 to 2019 were selected from the

Statistical

Yearbook

of

Yunnan

Province

compiled by the Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics. We constructed the spatial adjacency weight matrix and the spatial inverse distance weight matrix, and calculated the Moran index to further analyze the spatial pattern of the

RILP

of Yunnan Province.

3 Analysis of spatial and temporal variation of RILP

3.1

Temporal

variation

of

For the convenience of analysis, we plotted a trend chart of the

RILP

(unit: 10 000 yuan/km) of Yunnan Province and each prefecture (city) from 2009 to 2019 (Fig.1-2).As shown in Fig.1, the

RILP

of the whole Yunnan Province showed a general upward trend in 2009-2019. The

RILP

in Yunnan Province showed an upward trend in 2009-2014; after reaching 1.912 7 million yuan/kmin 2014, it declined slightly in 2015 and 2016; then it continued to rise in 2017 and 2018, of which the increase in 2019 compared with 2018 was the largest, reaching 2 275 900 yuan/km. The overall variation of

RILP

in various prefectures (cities) was relatively gentle, which is roughly the same as the variation trend of

RILP

in the whole province, showing a gentle upward trend on the whole. However, the

RILP

difference between prefectures (cities) was obvious. Specifically, Kunming City had the highest

RILP

, followed by Qujing and Yuxi, and most of the other prefectures (cities) were low. Therefore, it is necessary to further analyze the spatial distribution pattern of

RILP

.

Fig.1 Temporal variation of RILP in Yunnan Province in 2009-2019

Fig.2 Variation of RILP of prefectures (cities) in Yunnan Province in 2009-2019

3.2

Spatial

pattern

of

the

For the convenience of analysis, we calculated the

Moran

’

s

Index

,

Z

statistics and their corresponding

P

values for 2009-2019 and the annual average (Table 1).As shown in Table 1, (i) the

Moran

index of each year is positive; (ii) the

Moran

index of each year has passed the 5% significance level test; (iii) the

Moran

index calculated by using the spatial inverse distance weight matrix is more significant than using the spatial adjacency weight matrix; (iv) The

Moran

index calculated after taking the natural logarithm is more significant than not taking the natural logarithm. The above results show that the

RILP

of each prefecture (city) in Yunnan Province has significant spatial autocorrelation, showing obvious positive spatial agglomeration characteristics, mainly represented by H-H agglomeration and L-L agglomeration; the

Moran

index calculated by the spatial inverse distance weight matrix is more significant, which can better show its spatial autocorrelation characteristics. In order to explore the spatial distribution of

RILP

in prefectures (cities) in Yunnan Province in more depth, we calculated the

RILP

of various regions in Yunnan Province (mainly including Northeast Yunnan, Central Yunnan, Southeast Yunnan, Southwest Yunnan, West Yunnan, and Northwest Yunnan) in 2009-2019 (Table 2).

Table 1 Spatial correlation analysis of RILP in Yunnan Province in 2009-2019

Note: Each matrix in the above table has been standardized.

Table 2 The RILP of regions of Yunnan Province in 2009-2019 (10 000 yuan/km2)

As shown in Table 2, the

RILP

in central Yunnan (Kunming City, Yuxi City, Chuxiong Prefecture, and Qujing City) in 2009-2019 was significantly higher than that of other regions; northeast Yunnan (Zhaotong City), southeast Yunnan (Honghe Prefecture, Wenshan Prefecture) and western Yunnan (Dali Prefecture, Baoshan City, Dehong Prefecture) had an intermediate level of

RILP

; southwest Yunnan (Pu’er City, Lincang City and Xishuangbanna Prefecture) had a low level of

RILP

; northwest Yunnan (Diqing Prefecture, Nujiang Prefecture, and Lijiang City) had the lowest

RILP

. There are significant differences in

RILP

between regions. From the annual average value, the

RILP

in Central Yunnan was the highest, reaching 4 703 800 yuan/km; the

RILP

in Northwest Yunnan was the lowest, reaching 462 700 yuan/km, and the highest region was 10.17 times of the lowest region. The average value of

RILP

in each region was 1 964 600 yuan/km, and the coefficient of variation was 1.18, which further shows significant difference in

RILP

between each region. Fig. 3 more visually reflects the variation trend of

RILP

of regions in Yunnan Province in 2009-2019.The results in Fig.3 are consistent with the analysis conclusions obtained in Table 2. The

RILP

in central Yunnan was at the highest level in 2009-2019, and was significantly higher than that of any other region. The

RILP

in northwest Yunnan was at the lowest level, and other regions were at intermediate levels, but they were close to the

RILP

of northwest Yunnan.The main reason is that the topography and location conditions in central Yunnan are generally better, the population is dense, the urbanization level is generally higher, the economy and technology are more developed than other prefectures (cities), and driven by the radiation of the economy and trade of the Kunming City, its

RILP

is at a relatively high level and far exceeds other regions. In northwest Yunnan, due to the generally poor terrain and location conditions, and most counties are deeply poverty-stricken counties, the infrastructure is weak, the level of poverty is deep, the income level of residents is low, and relative poverty still exists, and its

RILP

is at a low level. It can be seen that

RILP

has a certain relationship with the terrain and location conditions of the area and the degree of poverty. In view of this, it is necessary to focus on production in backward areas, implement a rural revitalization strategy, and connect rural revitalization with targeted poverty alleviation in an organic manner, and achieve coordinated development of various regions.

Fig.3 Variation trend of the RILP of regions in Yunnan Province in 2009-2019 (10 000 yuan/km2)

4 Conclusions and implications

4.1

Conclusions

Taking Yunnan Province as an example, we calculated the

RILP

(using the year 2009 as the base period) of 16 prefectures (cities) in Yunnan Province for the past 11 years (2009 to 2019), and analyzed its temporal and spatial variation characteristics. We obtained the following results.(i) In general, the

RILP

of Yunnan Province showed an upward trend in 2009-2019; the variation in the

RILP

of each prefecture (city) were relatively gentle and the overall trend was still showing a slow upward trend, but the

RILP

differences between the prefectures (cities) were more significant. In particular, Kunming had the highest

RILP

, and most of the other prefectures (cities) were in a low state.(ii) The

RILP

of various prefectures (cities) in Yunnan Province had significant spatial autocorrelation, showing obvious positive spatial agglomeration characteristics;

RILP

had a certain relationship with the terrain and location conditions of the region and the degree of poverty. The

RILP

of central Yunnan in 2009-2019 was significantly higher than that of other regions. The

RILP

of northeast Yunnan, southeast Yunnan, and west Yunnan was at an intermediate level, while southwest Yunnan was at a lower level, and Northwest Yunnan was the lowest.

4.2

Policy

recommendations

In this paper, we deeply analyzed the spatial pattern of

RILP

in Yunnan Province, which has certain implication for the economic and social development of Yunnan Province.

4.2.1

Scientifically preparing a new round of provincial land and space planning for Yunnan Province. The provincial-level land and space planning plays a guiding role in the development of the provincial space. The time limit for the existing provincial-level land use planning in Yunnan Province is 2006-2020. This year (2000) is the new round of the planning year of the Yunnan provincial-level land and space planning. As a non-renewable resource, land is also the basis for human survival and development. Good land and space planning policies must provide spatial support for the distribution of productive forces, especially the protection of farmland and food production safety, and also adapt to the economic development of Yunnan Province as a pivotal province of the Belt and Road policy. In order to solve the difficult problem of scientifically and rationally carrying out land use planning, as early as 2005, China has deployed the task of conducting preliminary investigation and research work on overall land use planning at all levels. After the

Outline

of

National

Overall

Planning

on

Land

Use

(2006-2020) was reviewed and approved by the State Council of China in September 2008, Yunnan Province has also made a special deployment and arrangement for the revision of the overall land use plan at the provincial, city (prefecture) and county levels accordingly. In this context, in the new round of provincial land and space planning, it is required to combine the conclusions drawn from the above spatial pattern analysis to scientifically and rationally formulate land planning policies that meet the actual conditions of cities in Yunnan Province.

In the new round of provincial land and space planning, it is required to do a good job of "two compliances and three avoidances". Two compliances refer to compliance with the resource and environment carrying capacity of Yunnan Province and not over-exploitation, and compliance with the suitability evaluation of land and space development in Yunnan Province, formulating land policies that meet the actual conditions of cities in Yunnan Province according to local conditions. Three avoidances include (i) avoiding inadequate estimation of changes in the country’s macroeconomic environment, adjustments to macroeconomic policies, and the extraordinary and leap-forward development of Yunnan’s economic society during planning; (ii) avoiding insufficient consideration of the sharp increase in demand for construction land; (iii) avoiding insufficient attention to ecological environmental protection and construction and improvement of land production conditions, strengthening the bottom line constraints, and building a new pattern of beautiful land space of Yunnan Province.

4.2.2

Integrating the coordinated development of urban and rural areas in Yunnan Province, and improving the land use productivity of various industries in accordance with local conditions. Integrating the coordinated development of urban and rural areas is a major principle of Yunnan Province’s economic and social development, and an important way to promote sustained, rapid and healthy economic development and overall social progress of Yunnan Province. It is required to adhere to the principle of coordinated urban and rural development, actively promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas in all cities in Yunnan Province, and implement the strategy of Kunming driving surrounding cities and surrounding cities driving the development of rural areas, urban and rural integration, and promote the coordinated development of economy and space, optimize the spatial structure, and highlight the unique characteristics of each city in Yunnan Province. It is necessary to thoroughly implement the rural revitalization strategy, do a good job in the "three rural" work in the new era, and actively promote the strategy of integrated urban and rural development, so as to realize the new pattern of simultaneous urban construction and environmental protection, urban and rural integration, and the mutual connection between modern culture and traditional culture.According to the fact that Kunming City has the highest

RILP

and most of other prefectures (cities) are in a low state, it is necessary to integrate the land resources of various cities in Yunnan Province, comprehensively balance the land demand of various industries and regions, and properly adjust the land use structure and layout according to local conditions, formulate differentiated land use policies to promote the coordinated development of the regional economy and society of various cities in the province, and improve land use efficiency and land use productivity in various industries. In addition, it is necessary to insist on putting agriculture at the top of economic work to ensure the development of agriculture and rural economy and increase farmers’ income; continue to strengthen infrastructure construction and promote the informatization of the national economy; revitalize pillar industries and actively cultivate new economic growth points; encourage and guide the economic development of backward areas, and promote the rational distribution and coordinated development of regional economies.

4.2.3

Integrating the coordinated development of cities of Yunnan Province and optimizing the industrial structure in the province. Looking to the future, it is required to take the following six regions as the regional space units and make the overall planning for overall strategic layout of the province’s regional development: central Yunnan (Kunming City, Yuxi City, Chuxiong Prefecture, Qujing City), northeast Yunnan (Zhaotong City), southeast Yunnan (Honghe Prefecture, Wenshan Prefecture), and western Yunnan (Dali Prefecture, Baoshan City, Dehong Prefecture), northwest Yunnan (Diqing Prefecture, Nujiang Prefecture, Lijiang City) and southwest Yunnan (Pu’er City, Lincang City and Xishuangbanna Prefecture). Specifically, it is necessary to take the following three strategic measures.

(i) Continuing to implement the development strategy of western Yunnan. This region has a low-latitude mountainous subtropical monsoon climate. Due to its location in a low-latitude plateau, the terrain is complex, and the area is rich in forests, minerals, hydropower, geothermal, and natural gas resources. The land resources are generally good, but in the valley area, the farmland is scarce. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the coordination of economic development with population, resources, and environment in the western region, ensure the accessibility of basic public services and infrastructure, and strive to achieve the complementary development of different types of regions, the prosperity and security of ethnic frontiers, and the harmonious coexistence of man and nature.

(ii) Promoting the development of central Yunnan region. At present, the urban spatial structure of Yunnan Province is formed with Kunming, Qujing, Yuxi, and Chuxiong as the center of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration. The work division and cooperation of inner, central and outer circles with main traffic arteries as the skeleton, major cities and towns as nodes, covering the spatial structure network of the province’s urban system. The central region, led by Kunming City, is gaining momentum, so the future development is promising. It is necessary to closely follow the requirements of high-quality development, take advantage of the trend, and strive to promote high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, improve independent innovation capabilities in key fields, optimize the business environment, actively undertake the layout and transfer of emerging industries, expand high-level opening, adhere to green development, and ensure key deployments in the field of people’s livelihood, improve policies, measures and working mechanisms, and promote the rise of the central region to a new level.

(iii) Better promoting the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy in the northwest, southwest, southeast and northeastern regions of Yunnan Province. These areas are far from the city center, the infrastructure is relatively weak, the terrain and location conditions are poor, and the

RILP

is low. In view of these, it is necessary to give full play to the regional characteristics and geographical advantages of these regions, promote the benign interaction and coordinated development of the regional economy, and promote the formation of a new pattern of regional coordinated and all-round development in the economic society of Yunnan Province.

Yunnan Province has a vast land area and ranks eighth in China, but the resources, environment and economic and social development of cities in Yunnan Province are quite different. To realize coordinated regional development, it is necessary to implement differentiated land policies in accordance with the resources, environment and economic and social development of different regions, guide and regulate the development of various regions by classification, and establish and improve the regional coordinated development mechanism in an effective manner.